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Trent’s Take: Fantasy Byes 3

Last year’s winner helps you make your moves for the final week of the byes.

The bye rounds are always a rollercoaster (Isaac Heeney), but hopefully you picked the right player out of the three we recommended last week- Miller, Kelly, Whitfield. Whilst Whitfield didn’t receive a hard tag, he played like he did and with a high BE this week, you could wait or do the Selby move and go a week earlier than the BE suggests (this does not always work as I was a few dollars from getting Miller after having bought Kelly and thought I’d go a week early on Duncan… them’s the fantasy risks. Also, Selby’s move is generally on a player with a far lower ownership percentage).

This week we rack our minds through the teams coming off their bye last week, but don’t forget the players you identified last week or wanted to watch to see if there was a role change. Last week in the questions there were lots of people asking about Haynes from GWS and I said I wanted to wait until he went back to his intercept role, well that is what he did against North – no more Mark Blicavs impersonation on the wing, which makes Haynes a low-price target for a maxed-out rookie. The other is Dan Houston from last week as his shoulder survived the game and he played his regular role.

Brisbane

The decision is, do you get Lachie Neale before he goes big? He plays North and with a BE of 127 you could wait, but North haven’t tagged as much as they did early in the season. The GWS midfielders who were allergic to the sherrin weren’t tagged, they were just no good. If I didn’t have a Brisbane midfielder I would jump on Neale, otherwise no.  No Zorko for two weeks means Turner will need a new target to run around with in the forward line- maybe McCluggage or even Bailey.

I think the only real buying option this week is Daniel Rich as he could almost be a D6 defender; coming of scores of 99, 103 and 90 and with a BE of 112, it shows that Rich is consistent and at 710K his output makes him a hold for the season.

Carlton

Carlton has the same questions as Brisbane, with one midfielder and one, albeit riskier defender as buying targets: Walsh and Williams.  Whilst Walsh is M14 at the moment, he is super consistent and with the Giants this week and De Boer hopefully going to Cripps at stoppages, Walsh at 783K and a BE of 107 is a solid buy to plonk at M8 in the run home.  Carlton play GWS, Adelaide and Fremantle over the next three weeks which should enable Walsh to average 110.

The rollercoaster that is Zac Williams for the first time this season is a potential buy, BE of 62 and up against his old side and priced at 527K. However, we must be realistic with Williams, he is a sold 80-85 player and therefore as a buy is a cash grab for a month and not to plonk him at D6. It is absolutely, high risk and I’d rather go Houston for a few dollars more, but if you are cash strapped and love risk than Williams for a maxed out rookie is an option.

Essendon

Is it too late for Darcy Parish? Like many who have been burnt by Parish in the past, we’ve rolled with Merrett and Hind and maybe Ridley, but what if this week you sold via DPP Hind for Parish- you’d need 232K. The only way you are getting to Parish is to sell an almost premium like Hind, Harmes, Heeney and maybe Jordon with a few downgrades. I sold Hind to Kelly last week, but if you have 19 players this week, Hind to Parish is a good trade- although an almost premo to Parish who is on their bye is better.

A sneaky buy is Langford at 663 K and with a BE of 63 and last three scores of 102, 123, 114 and with McGrath out, it looks like he will stay on a wing with the occasional time in the centre, a legitimate F6 forward. For me, the Ridley discussion is like the Haynes discussion- need to see evidence of role change but watch the team list and see how many defenders Essendon choose and whether this means Heppell goes to midfield or the more likely option of Hind to the forward line (another reason I sold Hind to Kelly). This will be dependent on Smith and Shiel, as you think Smith plays forward and Shiel takes McGrath spot if both are chosen- but surely both will play 70-75 % game time and therefore allow good midfield time for Langford.

Western Bulldogs

The question is generally how many bulldog players you can squeeze in, and most coaches already have their allotment of bulldog players and the ones they don’t have, already have high ownership percentages: Macrae 37, Bont 13, Daniel 13, Smith 8 and Hunter 6 and no doubt Smith and Hunter’s were largely from the last few weeks. So, unless somehow, you’ve missed the bulldogs, I don’t think there is a buy from the bulldogs coming of their bye. Smith is 577K and BE of 101, whilst Daniel is 610 and a BE of 93, but buying them won’t help your fantasy rank as many coaches have already bought them prior to the buy. I bought Hunter at 642 K and a BE of 82 -he is probably the best buy still unless you think Bailey Dale at 650 K can sustain his scoring.

Upshot: Look to see how your potential buys fix up a line and buy accordingly. For me, looking at Houston or Haynes from last week and one of Walsh, Neale, or Langford if I can’t afford Parish (If sell Harmes). Poor round this week with 1694 and 1833 rank. Anyway, we live to fight on another week. Good Luck everyone.

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT

151 Comments

151 Comments

  1. Sam

    at

    Hey Trent, so far I’ve gone Byrnes to L.Edwards and Phillips to S.Darcy.
    For trades 3 & 4 I could either go Poulter to Rowell early who finished with 21 in the final quarter or thinking Poulter to L.Foley and Treloar (Held) to Parish? Or could wait for potential debutants to take a punt on

    Got enough players playing this week already

    • Aluniesheis

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      If you have enough players already, forget the debutants as they won’t help. I like Foley and think he looks more versatile than Edwards, which means he has at least some hope of surviving the return of Shuey and or Kelly.

      • llizardofoz

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        Could be famous last words.

  2. Ross Bellworthy

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    If you had a choice this weekend. Parish or McRae?

    • Aluniesheis

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      Parish against Hawthorn rather than Macrae at Geelong.

  3. Simon B

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    Hey Trent,
    Firstly thanks for the tip on going kelly over whitfield,
    Just a quick one who would you go out of:
    Jarryd Lyons,
    Jy Simpkin,
    Tom Mitchell,
    Lachie Neale,
    Kyle Langford,
    thanks heaps!

    • Aluniesheis

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      If it is just scoring from here on it is Lyons, Neale and Mitchell and then you decide by price with Neale to drop coin this week, so for this week it would be Mitchell, but if you want the pod you’d go Lyons. The spanner is Langford as a fwd and with a low BE this is the week to get him or let him go and hope he reverts to a 85 player

      • Simon B

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        Yeh tend to agree thanks trent,
        New question but similar,
        option 1.
        Madden, Whitfield, Titch
        option 2.
        Haynes, Simpkin, Langford

        • Aluniesheis

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          Option 1 as it had 2 keepers whilst option 2 has maybe 1.

  4. Harmes

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    Hi Trent

    Langford or Haynes.

    Getting Haynes means I have enough money left to go BBM to Max or Grundy next week.

    • Aluniesheis

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      Do that

  5. Con

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    Who scores best from here on out? Titch, Lyons or Neale?

    • Con

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      Just seen above!

  6. Seb

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    Parish or Miller?

    • Aluniesheis

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      Parish has a higher ceiling

  7. Ollie

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    mitchell, landford, williams and a rookie or stewart, landford, hunter and a rookie??

    • Ollie

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      langford*

      • Aluniesheis

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        Option 2 I think is more stable

  8. Stu

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    Am I crazy? Thinking of trading Brayshaw to get Parish. Kind of goes against the whole not sideways trading during the byes but I am currently looking at 2 rooks on field after trades (Flynn & Devrob/Cox) which I feel isn’t too bad. Gonna be easy to go DevRob to Rowell soon & can downgrade/upgrade Flynn fairly easily. Brayshaw on his bye and just feel he’s not quite gonna be a top 8 mid. Really feel I’m missing out not owning a Touk or a Parish. Ranked 251, team value 17.6m. Your thoughts Trent?

    • Aluniesheis

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      Agree, risky. But it could prove a masterstroke. Just be prepared for Brayshaw to go 110.but at your rank it could work wonders. The offset is your lack of rookies, so I like it.

      • Stu

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        Yeah I might keep Brayshaw and dump a guy like Stewart who doesn’t really seem to have much of a ceiling. I could go Out: Byrnes/Poulter/Heeney/Stewart – In: Newcombe/Reeves/Miller/Parish. 3 rooks on field (Flynn, DevRob & Cox).

        • Aluniesheis

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          Reeves might not play due to Ceglar playing well.

          • Stu

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            Yeah scratch all of that lol, also got Waterman out

  9. Reno

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    Hey Trent,
    Another good article!
    Just want your input on a couple of the following blokes I’m have trouble with splitting.

    Haynes 471k OR Newman 569k consider neither are probably keepers and are more stepping stones so I can have all rookies off field next week

    Haynes cheaper, with potentially more $ upside
    Or
    Newman I feel could be more consistent and under 1% and less people are looking at him
    Already have Houston, hence why he is not mentioned

    As well as splitting
    Docherty- 730k – should be top 6 defender, should average 100 from here
    Neale – 729k – jumping on early but know his potential and huge upside he could have if he goes in a run

    If there is anyone else you would suggest around these price ranges, have 1.3M for the 2 trades, trading out Heeney & Jordan/Byrnes

    Cheers

    • Reno

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      Or even Rich 710K – been averaging around the 100 mark and is unique? Will he be a top 6 defender? And outscore Docherty?

      • Aluniesheis

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        I like Rich for his consistency, but it probably means you can get him at any point. I’d favour Haynes just for the $. I don’t mind Boak or Lyons. In terms of value Rozee is the random one- he looked okay last week and seemed to be ack to full fitness, risky, but at 501 K.

  10. SlavicPrincess

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    Am I crazy for considering B. Ellis as a POD?

    • Aluniesheis

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      He started the season off well but until last week his form has mirrored the Suns fortunes- I don’t think he is value.

  11. Banger

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    Hey Trent

    Great read again as always. Just wanting your thoughts on Isaac Smith – currently sitting in the top 6 forwards (on average) and no-one is really talking about him.

    I’m tossing on weather to bring in L Hunter or I Smith this week in an effort to get 18 on the field. He is currently sitting at only 7% ownership as is actually cheaper ($639K) than Hunter.

    Thanks in advance

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      He is really consistent but his age and ceiling probably cause most to pause. He is a solid buy, but that is true any week.id rather Hunter for the ceiling.

      • Thanks Trent – perhaps just second guessing myself that poor Hunter may get ‘Bevoed; just like poor Dunkley did.

        Hunter it is then!!!

        • Aluniesheis

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          Always a chance, especially if there is an injury like when Garcia was concussed and Hunter went forward.

  12. Bombers

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    Hi Trent.
    Excellent article again. Should I get someone like Lyons this week or get someone cheaper like Brad Crouch next week?

    • Aluniesheis

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      I like Lyons over crouch but the price might also play a part and allow a better second trade with crouch.

  13. Chris

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    Hall or Neale?

    • Chris

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      Add Parish to that list

    • Aluniesheis

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      Tough- Hall’s value is as a def-fwd and with Neales be, I’d say Hall for this week

  14. llizardofoz

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    Talk of top 6 or 8 is irrelevant.
    It’s all about who scores more from RD 14 to RD 23.
    Runs on the board are fine but they mean diddley squat.

    • Aluniesheis

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      That is true- generally I think most people are talking about from now on. For example Langford may nor finish F6 but he might for the last 9 weeks.

  15. Burnt

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    Hi Trent. Again many thanks for all of your replies so far. That is what makes this forum one of the best for the week.
    What do you think which option will be best. I don’t have a Lions midfielder or Miller but I already have Rich.
    1. Wines and Lyons
    2. Wines and Neale and save 90k
    3. Neale and Parish.
    4. Other

    • Burnt

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      I just have enough for Neale and Macrae ( Option 5)

    • Aluniesheis

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      Neale and Parish is a great pod call as most owners of Neale are probably non playing coaches.

      • Burnt

        at

        Cheers mate. I really appreciate it.

  16. Anthony

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    Hi Trent,

    Currently ranked highly and am just wondering whether you think it’s worth going for Langford? I will be moving on Heeney after he has been a failed option and Langford could every easily head down the same path.

    Option 1 leaves $4k in the bank and 22 playing on field:

    Byrnes -> Bramble
    Poulter -> Houston
    Jordon -> Lyons
    Heeney -> Langford

    Option 2 leaves $29k in the bank and 22 playing on field (I think Madden is safer than Bramble to play more games given Lester will be out 3-4 weeks and Worpel will come straight back in round 15, however, I could also go Bramble and pocket the extra $59k leaving $88k in the bank).

    Byrnes -> Madden
    Poulter -> Houston
    Jordon -> Neale
    Heeney -> Langford

    Option 3 would involve going for someone more proven than Langford and would thus require trading Markov instead of Poulter and would leave 21 on field for the week.

    Byrnes -> Bramble
    Markov -> Houston
    Jordon -> Neale
    Heeney -> Anyone priced at 815 or below, so could double up with Neale and Lyons (Brisbane’s run home is incredible), could grab a Wines, Duncan (BE very high though) or a Ziebell, or could grab someone on their bye such as an Oliver, Grundy, Mills, Zorko (suspension), Crouch etc however this would leave 20 on field. My plan was to use Markov to get Grundy next week, so this option makes next week more difficult as I would likely have to use a Cumming or Hind instead, thus Poulter would remain in the team.

    Basically, it all comes down to how we think Langford performs. If he can maintain his strong performance then he would be a good buy as a FWD DPP, however, he is also priced at 93 and has lost a lot of the value he was presenting a couple weeks ago now. Interested to hear your thoughts mate. Cheers.

    • Anthony

      at

      How are you feeling about Haynes as well by the way? With his Career best season failing to crack 80, is this one player to avoid? I could save 100k going Haynes instead of Houstan which would allow me to target two big dogs in the midfield, or is this too much risk? Houston clearly the better player.

      • Aluniesheis

        at

        Houston over Haynes, but the cash saving could get you a premium. Agree, Haynes at best is a 3-5 week stop gap- hoping he gets to 550K and then offload. He could average 85 for a period of time now with Davis back and Ash out. He should be at least playing the role where he is likely to score.

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      I like the Markov trade as Poulter is good for another week and Markov is maxed out. I sadly can’t easily get to Langford, but he has been a solid player for 18 months and his role is pretty clearly defined- seems a poor game is 70 and a good game is 120 with an average in between.

  17. Belly

    at

    Hi Trent,
    I’d appreciate your advice on the following ive got two options I’m undecided on, what do you prefer?
    Heeney, Phillips, Byrnes &Scott are departing and the ins are
    1. Parish, Houston, Langford and Bramble or
    2. Parish, Haynes, Bramble and 1 of Mitchell, Merrett, Wines, Walsh or Neale.

    And I assume you would advise trading Phillips over Ridley?

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Phillips over Ridley with his potential ceiling. Houston v Haynes is maybe 10 difference and Langford v any of those is probably the same, but potentially higher. I think for the value I’d go option 2 as Haynes will go up in value and the 4th trade is a potential captain each week alongside Parish.

      • Belly

        at

        Thanks Trent, but I think I’m going option 1, im just not sold on Haynes, I just see one decent score and a player whos really a solid 70-80. I know for the money that is still ok, but its another trade in a few weeks and I already have Hind, Harmes, Ridley and Daniel who are all sub uber premo so probably need upgrading if I can.
        I feel like Houston and Langford are both a better chance of not needing to be traded out.

  18. Chloe Johnson

    at

    Thanks for your article Trent!

    Thoughts on Heeney to Danger or Langford?

    Will only have $4K left in the bank if I go Danger but seeing him being a top 6 FWD for the rest of the season compared to Langford.

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Danger leaking cash and I think is a wait for another 2 weeks. Overall, they might finish similar, but you can get Langford this week and Danger in 2 weeks.

  19. Harmes

    at

    Hi Trent. Best trade ins please

    1. Josh Kelly and 170k rookie
    2. Newman and Daniel

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      For this week 2, but overall 1- so it depends on whether you need to field the 170K rookie in field at any point after this week. Personally i’d go Kelly and Bramble/Durham. At least you know he is a keeper.

  20. JMD012

    at

    Hey Trent just a another opinion from you would be most appreciated
    1) Phillips -> Greene
    Or
    2) Markov -> Cripps
    I am totally undecided. Looking towards the future with option 1 in 2-3 weeks I would be able to get Neale (this is because of positons), as opposed to if I go option 2 in 2-3 weeks I would be only just able possibly to get Zorko (this is because of positons)
    so really it’s a decision of Greene and Neale compared to Cripps and possibly Zorko.
    What do you think? Would love to know your thoughts

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      I suppose the likelihood is Greene 90 and Neale 110 with Cripps 100 and Zorko 100. For me it is Neale with his upside.

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