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Trent’s Take: Fantasy Byes 1

The Grundy decision is a big one in the context of the season.

Opportunity brings chaos and chances to succeed where many will fail – this is the Brodie Grundy conundrum. Last year my entire season hung on my decision to trade Gawn to McInerney and then use the cash to upgrade two others to premiums. This year will be no different.

I’ll run through a couple of ideas I am toying with concerning Grundy and how I hope to use it as a vehicle to launch (it just depends on whether it crashes early or not). Then I’ll combine it with some overall R12 bye planning discussion. The aim is still the same, to come out of this bye with a plan to get premiums and not field donuts. Make sure you look at how your buying affects your later rounds.

My aim this round is to field 19 and hopefully to keep 1 trade for a Sunday game and use it to sell, hopefully my 19th player to a person on their bye (at this stage Luke Parks for a Hunter/Fyfe or if you can buy a bye player, Parks to Whitfield). Some players who fit this bill would be Anthony Scott, Luke Parks, Riley Garcia, and any form Carlton, Eagles, Dockers, Bulldogs you don’t think will be in your top 18 in any week of the bye.

Some will no doubt hold, but I think you can’t hold for 3-4 weeks hoping to scrape through with 18. The reason is Grundy would average 100-110 in this period and your 18th man would probably average 50-60. A trade is a must (unless you are just playing for leagues and draft).

This is my option at this point, and it is because I have Ben McEvoy in DEF. I will sell Grundy to a premium forward and DPP others in order to place McEvoy as RUCK (at least for the next 3 weeks) My aim, also, unless the player is going backwards (Farrar) is not to sell many players on their bye this week. These players will be critical for future rounds and if the schedule changes, there is one thing you know- teams which have the bye this week will be playing in future weeks. I will probably sell 1 player this week (Phillips) and also look to move a player playing this week, Warner and then Grundy. And then do the same next week (Sholl).

You could make the same decision I have just outlined with McEvoy and place Reeves at R2 for a few weeks and use the cash to bolster 2 other positions this week. I am weakest in R13 and so I am looking at 2 FWD premiums and 1 DEF premium. Players that we have all discussed, Hunter, Martin, Bolton, Heeney, Crisp, Mills, Fyfe – the list is endless and go with your gut research.

For example, if you sold Grundy to Reeves, and hold the cash, you could sell a Sunday rookie to Fyfe or Hunter, especially if you need an 18th player to lift your score, but if you don’t you could hold some of that cash and have a war chest next week.

The other option is to sideways Grundy, (unless you don’t have Max Gawn and that would be a good trade) and we’ve all looked at the sideways options from a forward line perspective over the last three weeks and nothing has changed: Darcy and Ladhams are the best two options unless you gamble on O’Brien rediscovering scoring against Collingwood without Grundy. For what it’s worth, O’Brien looked okay again, although was Nankervis hobbled.

For non-Grundy owners, this is a great chance to use your trades to establish a plan to fix your weakest line. I personally wouldn’t use this week to fix all of my red dots unless it is with Bianco or Reeves or a player you have confidence in, but until now have been unable to trade. This week for you is a great week to sell the weakest links in your team, irrespective of whether they are on their bye or not. Get rid of a player who is dead weight and now hovering around 17-20th scorer. Players like Powell, Warner, Sholl, etc etc who have done their job must go.

As, I mentioned, I would sell those playing this week if it still leaves my team with 18-19 players. For example, sell Warner over Powell, and then next week when Powell is playing you have the option to sell him if it helps your team.

During the bye rounds we need to be attentive to team selections and when teams are playing in order to maximise the 18 on field, and not wasting a trade on a player who will score 50 as a rookie this week (and not be top 18) and then be on their own bye next week. So, be mindful of bringing in a named 170 K rookie this week if it looks, they are a temporary solution to an injury (Bianco, does not fit this bill and must be bought if you have not done so).

Upshot: Use your Grundy trade to maximise your other 2 trades this week and set up your plans for next week. Trade maxed out rookies, especially if you have 18-19 players on field.

This week my POD’s decided to have a rest, and thus scored 2081 and slipped back to 1240. But, be the butter mouse and good bye planning everyone.

Trent Sutcliffe, coach of 'aluniesheis', won AFL Fantasy Classic in 2020, one of the most challenging seasons to date.

119 Comments

119 Comments

  1. James

    June 3, 2021 at 1:25 pm

    Thanks for responding so well to everyone Trent. You are great. I am a bit stuck and looking to gain some cash for Round 12. I essentially have 19 players R12, 16 R13, and 17 for R4 byes so feeling good.

    My weakest players on each line include ZWilliams for D, Obrien for Ruck, Gaff for C and Ladhams for F (not counting rookies). The only way I can see myself locking in some cash to upgrade a rookie next week is to downgrade one of these weaker players. I have noticed Gaff is on a downward slope atm, and playing a bit out of position so am leaning towards downgrading to Heeney (top 6 forward) to give me 200K more looking towards Whitfield next week.

    Thoughts? It is more aggressive than I would like. Otherwise I will also be doing small downgrades to get in Reeves, Coleman-Jones.

    • Aluniesheis

      June 3, 2021 at 10:10 pm

      Very aggressive but okay, but I’d go Reeves. Gaff will be okay

  2. Harmes

    June 3, 2021 at 8:52 pm

    Hi Trent

    Hunter or Cripps?

    • Aluniesheis

      June 3, 2021 at 10:08 pm

      Hunter as FWD

  3. Luke

    June 3, 2021 at 9:40 pm

    Gday Trent
    Ronin OConnor or Luke Edwards to bring in this week? Will be my 18th scorer so score counts regardless. Both are potentially 1 week replacements but neither should count for me in R13-14.
    Cheers

    • Aluniesheis

      June 3, 2021 at 10:08 pm

      O’Connor at least has some form. Edwards we are just hoping. And you could wait and see

  4. L

    June 3, 2021 at 10:19 pm

    Hi Trent
    Heeney or cripps

  5. Aluniesheis

    June 3, 2021 at 10:51 pm

    I do like cripps this week and he scores more. But Heeney as a FWD makes him appealing. On points alone it is Cripps.

  6. Scott

    June 3, 2021 at 11:23 pm

    Had 20 on field then Wilson, Macrae and Highmore all out. Max now is 17 – have traded Grundy, Phillips and Highmore for Bianco, Crouch and Crisp. $405K for next week.
    Thoughts?

    • Aluniesheis

      June 4, 2021 at 4:41 pm

      Just make sure you won’t need Phillips next week. Otherwise get rid of 2 of those non players who have their bye next week. Maybe keep Phillips if you need him next week and trade Wilson for O’Connor.

      • Scott

        June 4, 2021 at 5:26 pm

        I only have 6 who are playing this week (+2 non players) who have their bye next week so should be right trading Phillips. Next week thinking Fullarton to Reeves and trade Warner and Macrae/Wilson to premium and rookie.

        • Aluniesheis

          June 4, 2021 at 5:40 pm

          That should work well. Good luck.

  7. Renoo

    June 4, 2021 at 12:09 pm

    Hey Trent,
    Great Article that’s really got me thinking about my trades and choice as to if I should hold Grundy or not.
    Trades are currently
    Markov -> bianco
    Phillips -> Merrett
    Rowe -> Heeney
    7k remaining
    Needing to trade Rowe over a non playing to be able to reach mg Heeney trade and making it abit of a struggle to get to Whitfield next week as I would need to trade someone like Jordan to do so

    Alternatively I could trade Grundy and hold onto markov this week as well as flicking a non player (brockman)
    Like as follows
    Brockman -> Bianco
    Phillips -> Heeney
    Grundy -> Merrett
    153k
    Doing so would allow me to move players of the likes of Bosenavulagi & meek next week and still be able to reach Whitfield as well as Grabbing Reeves for cover so I can move Darcy back

    Any feedback much appreciated,
    Cheers

    • Aluniesheis

      June 4, 2021 at 4:38 pm

      Both are good options. Probably depends on how it affects your structure in the last 2 bye rounds, especially if the Eagles and tigers swap byes. Meaning we have 2 less teams on R13 but 2 more on R14.

      I am trading Grundy for the points and filling out 2 premiums, but I can see for some holding is ok.

      You seem to have good flexibility after trading Grundy.

      • Renoo

        June 4, 2021 at 7:14 pm

        Have worked out that I can get rid of Bosenavulagi & Kosi this week instead of Phillips & brockman and I will still have enough coin to do the same trades, so that seems to be why I’m running with, will allow me to follow the plan I had in place better for following 2 week.
        Thanks once again

  8. CJ

    June 4, 2021 at 12:35 pm

    Thanks for all your advice Trent!

    Thoughts on Philips to Sidey ($78K left) or Cripps ($110K)

    • Aluniesheis

      June 4, 2021 at 4:34 pm

      I’ve had Sidey for a few weeks and he has been up and down. Hw is still top 6 FWD though. The FWD status probably sways me to him although I expect Cripps to average more.

  9. Rob

    June 4, 2021 at 4:46 pm

    Who’s better to bring in, heeny or harmed?

    • Aluniesheis

      June 4, 2021 at 5:39 pm

      Depends on where they play, is Heeney F6 or Harmes D6. In other words they are pretty even and you bring in the player who gets the worst rookie of the ground.

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