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The Thursday Scramble

The Thursday Scramble: Round 8

Thursday is here again and #AskDunny returns for the first time this year.

Was Warnie Right? Are there no Rookies this year? And what a blow this week was for those of us that went set and forget with Big Max, now everyone can afford him in a couple of weeks. These are just the things that happen in a Fantasy season! Nothing about it is ever fair! The only thing that is constant is that this is a bloody hard game to get right!  Anyway, let’s Scramble!!

Where do you stand on Big Max Gawn??

This year I started with Gawn and Grundy. After last year wasting a heap of trades trying to get myself a decent ruck line I couldn’t put myself through it again. And for the first 6 weeks of the season this really paid off particularly when Coach Mumford started pushing Flynn out of the side. But, everyone that didn’t have him yet breathed a huge sigh of relief this week when Max had a poor score. Not only did that mean that they could catch up a bit of ground on those that had him (and even more for those that captained him) but it means that we all now know that in a week or two he is going to be cheap enough to bring in for a lot of people.

But the question is…. do you completely change your upgrade plans to be able to bring him in? This is one of those rare situations where I think you do. You would have been planning to bring in other premiums but you now need to make the assessment, is Gawn going to be better than the other guy that I was going to get? Will he average more than the other guy for the rest of the season. I would bet that most of the people that don’t have Gawn would have had some ruck trades in their future plans, whether that be to get Max in or to try and get from who they have now to the next level up whether that be to Gawn, O’Brien or Grundy. If this is you then I would be changing my plans and using this opportunity while Max is cheap to get him in now because the number of top tier ruckmen in the game is a lot lower than the top tier players in each of the other positions and you need to take these opportunities when they present themselves.

#AskDunny

I haven’t gone to you guys and girls yet this season so I thought it was about time to see what issues you are having and whether I can offer any insight as to what you might be able to do.

This is one of those situations where it really depends on who the underpriced premium is. As I said above, if it is someone like Max then yes you should be looking to do that. The reason being is that he is someone that you would have had in your long term upgrade plans and hence getting him when he will be at potentially his cheapest point of the season is the way to go. But, just grabbing a player that wasn’t really in your plans just because they are cheap at the moment may not be the way to go. Here I am going to use the example of Stephen May from the Demons. There is a lot of talk in Supercoach about bringing him this week as he is super cheap and has a BE of 3. But the way I see it is that if he wasn’t on your radar do you use that trade and a bit of your cash?  Probably not if you ask me. So…. in a long way I am suggesting that you pick up the under priced premiums that were in your upgrade plans long term but other than that I am trying to get the most value out of my rookies by trading them whilst they still have some value.

I have spoken a little bit about the byes so far but this is a great question that we haven’t addressed yet. This is one of the few years in recent times where I haven’t spent ages looking at the byes by this time of the season. But as you say we are now getting very close to them and it is time to address them.  You have one of two ways to go here and it revolves around the old Two out of Three ain’t bad rule. If you really want Josh Kelly in your side and it hurts you in the R12 bye round, what that means is that you will have one more premium in the other bye rounds that should help propel your side to a league win or up the overall rankings. The other question you have to ask yourself is, are all of those guys going to be in your side when you get to R12?  Of those you list I would say Ziebell, Phillips, Hall Stephenson are locks to still be there (you probably have bigger issues) but the rookies may not be and for that reason you can probably afford to bring Kelly in knowing one or more of those guys will be gone.

If I have any rookies still in my side at that point I am hoping they are the good ones like Jordon and Powell who have been scoring well for us. But to answer your question I would prefer to have a team of top premos and 4 rookies. This is even more important in the limited trade versions of the game RDT and SC. Because if you are going to have mid pricers in your side you are probably going to have to pull the trigger on a couple more trades to upgrade some of them before the season is out and you simply can’t afford to be making those trades. So for me, I don’t want to buy into someone that I am going to have to burn another trade on because they are going to cost me 40 points or more each week by having them over a top premium.

I am trading out my maxed our rookies like Rowe here. The main reason is that those maxed out rookies are going to lose me value each week by not hitting their BE but Highmore isn’t going to cost me a cent by not playing. The exception here of course is if you are facing a donut and can fix that by trading out one of those rookies to another that is playing, has a very low (preferably negative) BE and good job security. I really don’t want to be sideswapping a rookie that hasn’t risen in value but if you are very desperate then you may have to do it but it is a trade of last resort.

Great to hear from you Cathryn, now like me I am sure you would much rather get Rowe the Crow out of your side as I am sure you are keen not to see those tri-colours in your line up just like friend of DTTalk Cam of “Never pick a Docker” fame doesn’t like purple in his!

But to answer your question, the right play is to get rid of the rookie that is going to lose you more money by not performing this week. For me in this situation I think I am getting rid of Rowe (something I am actually trying to do in my side) because he isn’t scoring well and is losing money for us of late. If that means you have to compromise on who you go to then you may need to do that. Now I can hear you all saying that this contradicts what I said earlier about not wanting mid pricers in your side. But here what I am saying is that you are getting rid of a liability from a cash generation perspective and cashing him in for as much as you can get and what it means is that you are bringing in a different premium that you are planning to hold until round 23, not someone that you are going to have to use another trade on. For example if I had to use Rowe to get to Hall or Powell to get to Kelly I would do the Rowe to Hall because Powell is scoring well and making me money (well at least not losing any that is for sure) and it should mean that when he is ripe to be upgraded you will be able to get to a better premium than what you will be able to do with Rowe by trading him out now.

Hope that wasn’t too confusing and made sense!

 

Thanks for the questions folks, some great strategy based questions this week. I prefer those questions rather than the “which player out of these two or three would you pick” because those answers really depend greatly on what you have in your team already and your other trade plans.

Things to Remember

  • Don’t forget to trade before the game starts! I have heard a few high profile Supercoach players forgot to trade out Dunkley before the game started last week!
  • Start your bye planning, each trade you make from now should have one eye on the byes.
  • Keep a watch on injury lists and BE’s when looking at your rookie trades, how safe is the bloke you are bringing in.

Wasn’t it amazing last week to see the projected scores tumble last week, particularly after Max’s score on Sunday. Don’t read too much into them, if they were always correct this would be a pretty easy (and boring) game to play.  Have a great weekend of footy and see you all again next Thursday!!

A passionate Port Adelaide Fan who simply loves footy! That is how I would describe myself. Catch my weekly article "The Thursday Scramble" with all the last minute things to think about for the weekend Follow: @pkd73.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Mad Fish

    May 6, 2021 at 8:11 am

    Trading out Sam Berry for RCD and then can go Gulden to anyone, who should I get?

    I have Zerrett, Taranto, Gaff, Laird, Hall, Grundy, Gawn – do I just go straight up to Macrae, with $0k left? Maybe Ziebell with the matchup? Or a more unique mid like Duncan, Petracca, Walsh to save a bit of cash?

    • Ashley

      May 6, 2021 at 8:56 am

      Macrae is simply a must have this season, and I’m not sure that his price will change too much in either direction. That being said, leaving yourself with 0k is less than ideal, but depending on your cash generation may be the right move to make to get yourself a captain option every week.

  2. Ashley

    May 6, 2021 at 8:54 am

    Currently side looks like:
    D: Doherty, Laird, Stewart, Hind, Cumming, Idun (Koschitzke, Burgess)
    M: Merrett, Oliver, Taranto, Macrae, Martin, Powell, Campbell, Jordon (Macrae, Berry)
    R: Gawn, Grundy (Flynn)
    F: Phillips, Farrar, Fantasia, Perkins, Bergman, Warner (Rowe, Jones)
    U: Meek
    Cash: 186k

    Currently I am thinking Martin to Lyons which leaves me with 14k. I am not sure which of Frederick or RCD will hold their spot longer, or if there is a better option to go to. Also am not sure if Campbell, Rowe or Macrae should be the one to go. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

    • Jag67

      May 6, 2021 at 12:46 pm

      If it helps your decision, both Campbell’s (SYD or NTH – not sure which one you’re writting about) have gettable BE’s. Rowe and Macrae BE’s are close or over their respective average.

      • Jag67

        May 6, 2021 at 12:48 pm

        writing – one T. Oops

  3. anth80

    May 6, 2021 at 8:57 am

    Dunny.
    Great read again.
    I’m in the rare situation this week where I have luxury trades. 2 in fact. What’s the better trade.
    Brockman to RCD and Gulden to Hall.
    Flynn to RCD and Gulden to Andy Brayshaw.
    Flynn to RCD and Gulden to Josh Kelly.
    Hall had a massive ceiling and is a lot cheaper, but is a stepping stone.
    Brayshaw had been consistent this year. 5/7 hundreds.
    Kelly is an underpriced FORWARD premium. The last 2 are set and forget..

    Help please.
    Thanks in advance.

    • Double Parked

      May 6, 2021 at 8:26 pm

      All 3 on my hit list. I think Hall at that price is too good to pass up. He’s always had a fantasy game about him, particularly when in the right role. Brayshaw and Kelly won’t move too much in price and you can get one next week and the other the week after.. unless you prefer the likes of Ridley and Dusty who should be sub 600k in a week or two

  4. Henry

    May 6, 2021 at 9:35 am

    Thanks for the article, Dunny. Two questions: I am planning to trade out Walker & Gulden and to bring in Byrnes and Hall. Would I be better off shelling out the extra $99k for Kelly (remembering that Hall is averaging 124 in his only 3 completed games)? Secondly, would I do better to trade out non-playing rooks (I am likely to have several in the $300k range) rather than playing players?

  5. Gilbert Grape

    May 6, 2021 at 2:15 pm

    This round is proudly brought to you by “Lithium” performed by Odd-Mob featuring Brodie Grundy. Watch live at the colosseum in Melbourne city

  6. Matty

    May 6, 2021 at 4:05 pm

    I like reading your articles Dunny.
    But it’s disappointing that you’re a Powerpuff supporter, seem too intelligent to be one 😂

  7. Terry

    May 6, 2021 at 5:47 pm

    More like a Powell Puff. Crow for dinner! Yum.

  8. Bill

    May 6, 2021 at 6:13 pm

    Oh, for the three trades per week of last year.

  9. soss

    May 6, 2021 at 8:14 pm

    Should i stick with these trades of Tex > Hall and Clark> J Kelly or focus on the likes of rowe and gulden and do a double down grade? Cheers

    • Double Parked

      May 6, 2021 at 8:21 pm

      The first option

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