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Trent’s Take: Getting Premiums

The 2020 winner looks at premiums to target from each club.

Last week was rookie roulette, but this week I am going to the opposite end of the point scale: under price premiums. About this time last year, I made a list of players from every team who I would be willing to trade into my side ( and if I obeyed it totally I would have went Rich instead of Blicavs). It was made up of what I thought would be the 3 highest performing players in each position from every team and I said I would not trade another player in unless they were rookies or injuries forced an alteration.

Round 6 is a good time to begin thinking about which under-priced premiums you can get, because from after the first bye we’ll all be chasing premiums who are over $800k. The thinking is simple, most mid pricers have had their chance to go up and if they haven’t it’s because they are not any good or they have been injured or are playing in the reserves and will have poor job security (don’t go Jackson Hately for example when he comes in).

This is my quick take on all the teams and the players I will be looking to trade in. Which one at which week is dependent on injuries and what rookies are named in order to sell 2 mid pricers to 1 under-pried premium and 1 rookie. For example, I have Dan Houston and if he is out, I will upgrade to Tom Mitchell and downgrade a non-playing rookie or Campbell to Macrae or Farrar; otherwise, I would consider Phillips and Campbell to a Neale/Mitchell and a rookie.

I don’t have O’Brien or Walker and as I already own Sholl and Laird, I will only be trading rookies into my side as bench options for the rest of the year unless something significantly changes, which would be Tex still averaging over 100 in Round 15 (or a ruck injury). This means I cannot see any value in Adelaide apart from Laird and Sholl, and there will be many sides in this bracket.

I can only see 4 players worth buying: Neale, Lyons, Rich and Zorko, but before Round 12 only Neale is on my radar, although his next 4 weeks have a few potential tag speed humps.

I already own Docherty and no other player will finish in the top 6-8 in any position. The entire team is a no go, unless Walsh starts to average 110 and Williams 95, but I will wait for the evidence.

For me now, it is only Grundy and Crisp. I need to see Sidebottom average 90 plus for a few weeks first.

I own Merrett and Hind and only Ridley is worth considering, and that in about 3 weeks if he comes back well from concussion.

This maybe harsh, but I cannot see any Fremantle player being in the top 6-8 of any line unless Ryan has a run of intercepting everything. At this stage only rookies for bench spots, or at a pinch in later rounds you might go Fyfe up forward, but his injury risk is a downside. But he could be a good option late in the season if Fremantle are close to finals.

Dangerfield and Stewart when their price is right and Stewart’s price is right, right now. Duncan and Guthrie post bye if they are averaging top 8 midfielders.

I know Ellis and Bowes are averaging high now, but I will not buy a Suns premium until after the byes and there is a longer history of consistency that they have a top player. Bowes is the only option.

I currently own Taranto, but I suspect only Kelly as a forward will end up in the rolling 22. Buy as soon as he gets near a wing.

Mitchell – forget the rest.

Gawn, Oliver and Petracca are gold and 1 of those midfielder’s and Gawn is a must- no-one else.

Ziebell is like Tex, I’ll wait now until after the byes and he is still averaging 100.  No-one else is even close.

I still have Houston, but Port have become like the Tigers of 2020 and therefore they spread the love, unless the pig Rocky looks cemented in the midfield after a few more massive price drops.

Martin and/or Bolton, and I think Short will finish outside top 6 defenders and so if you don’t have him, I wouldn’t be getting him whilst Houli is in the team

Jack Steele and like Hawthorn forget the rest unless you like Clark as a DEF, but he hasn’t a high ceiling yet.

Mills and/or Lloyd and forget the rest.

Who knows what Witherden will do, but he is a watch and Gaff will finish anywhere between M7-12 and is a post bye buy when the Eagles have a favourable run at home.

How many is too many, I have Dunkley and Macrae and there is a chance I could look to get Treloar and maybe even Daniel again, but I still think he ends up D7-12.

Upshot

I am sure I have forgot many players but create a list as it stops you buying a player who just had a good game and will go up $40k, but in the end is a player stops you buying Oliver in Round 15 because you have failed to generate cash in post bye rounds. For example, Redden this week or dare I say Jiath last week (i.e. you needed to buy him the week before)

The only players apart from rookies I am wanting to buy between now and Round 12 are (I’ll include in the list the ones I already own): Neale, Rich, Crisp, Ridley, Laird, Docherty, Merrett, Stewart, Grundy, Taranto, J. Kelly, Gawn, Martin, Steele, Mills, Lloyd, Gaff, Treloar, Macrae, Dunkley, Houston, T. Mitchell. You cannot not end up with them all as the fantasy gods play havoc each week, but at least you won’t be stuck with Angus Brayshaw in weeks to come. Avoid mid pricers who have just had a good game but have a history of scoring lower.

This week

All depends on Houston’s fitness, but I will be hopefully going to a Farrar/Macrae rookie and up to a Mitchell or Neale. Round 5 was 1955 and ranked 816. Good Luck everyone!

Trent Sutcliffe, coach of 'aluniesheis', won AFL Fantasy Classic in 2020, one of the most challenging seasons to date.

156 Comments

156 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Nathan Grant

    April 21, 2021 at 4:52 pm

    hey subdub, I would trade Clark and move Hind back to get a rookie like F.Macrae or Farrar. Then either trade Phillips to a Premium or trade a non playing player for another rookie and be cashed up for next round.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 5:12 pm

      Lock it in

      • Avatar

        subdub

        April 21, 2021 at 5:17 pm

        Hello Trent, locking in the upgrade of Phillips or non playing rookie for cash grab?

    • Avatar

      subdub

      April 21, 2021 at 5:15 pm

      Thanks for your advice Nathan.

  2. Stu

    Stu

    April 21, 2021 at 5:12 pm

    Great read. Is it too late to get Sholl and we should be looking at guaranteed premos now or can you still jump on with the hope that he could be a keeper in defence? (ie, saving a lot of money over going a guy like Titch). Could go Fantasia to Sholl for example.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 5:23 pm

      As mentioned above, you are grabbing Sholl primarily not as a cash grab, even though he still has a BE of 41. If you want to grab him and hold him until after the byes, then yes.. that’s why I grabbed him last week. He looks like a 85 average player for the year and therefore is a hold for many weeks. Fantasia to Sholl is a yes, but there may not be a massive difference with Sholl, Markov or Cumming, but Sholl No 1. And Sholl has showna higher ceiling as he moves up to the wing not just half back.

      • Stu

        Stu

        April 21, 2021 at 5:36 pm

        Already got Markov & Cumming, am I potentially too mid price heavy then?

        • Aluniesheis

          Aluniesheis

          April 21, 2021 at 7:07 pm

          Depends on other lines, but yep don’t want too many, but Markov and Cumming are trages in 4-5 weeks anyway

  3. Avatar

    Nick

    April 21, 2021 at 5:23 pm

    Which trade is best?
    1. H.Jones to Farrar and Phillips to J.Kelly
    2. B.Campbell to Perkins or Bergman and Phillips to T.Mitchell
    3. Double upgrade to Perkins and Bergman and dump two of Kosi/H.Jones/Lazarro/Meek. This will allow me to dump Rowe and F.Macrae from field.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 7:08 pm

      Like the Mitchell option

  4. Avatar

    Jezza

    April 21, 2021 at 5:32 pm

    Great read Trent, just curious of ur thoughts on trading Clark to fin macrae and hind back to defence via dpp then upgrading Phillips to Dunkley
    Or should I be looking at getting farrar in potentially?

    • Avatar

      bomberpap

      April 21, 2021 at 6:56 pm

      Great trades! Would get Macrae in over Farrar. Watching both games, Farrar looked good but won’t get that many marks each week.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 7:10 pm

      Lock it in, only hassle is you won’t know all the teams for the Dunkley trade, but after his 150 this is the week you must get Dunkley if you don’t have him.

  5. Avatar

    bomberpap

    April 21, 2021 at 6:44 pm

    Hey Trent, fantastic article and have loved your replies to comments too.

    I’m set on trading JDG and Clark this week, and looking to get F.Macrae and Lloyd.

    My dilemma is I have great DEF bench cover (Chapman and Jones).. but also have B.Campbell and S.Berry on field – so part of me thinks I should look to trade in Mitchell/Neale first in order to get these rookies onto the pine and strengthen my overall side with these high ceiling premos, then roll with Chapman at D6.

    What do you think?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 7:12 pm

      I agree, Berry might be rested this week or next meaning he needs at a minimum to be on the bench. Chapman has a good draw for three weeks and is better at D6 than Berry at M8. Then, get in Nelae or Mitchell or what premo you like in the mids. Lloyd still has some cash to loose.

      • Avatar

        bomberpap

        April 21, 2021 at 7:43 pm

        Thanks mate!

  6. Avatar

    Brucey Don't Like Rusty

    April 21, 2021 at 7:21 pm

    Who to Trade Out? LDU or Tom Phillips?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 8:33 pm

      Both, but if LDU doesn’t play again this week, that is your choice made

      • Avatar

        Brucey Don't Like Rusty

        April 21, 2021 at 8:48 pm

        My other trade was Jordan Clark so will trade LDU if not named Friday night. I heard he’s tipped to play though. Thanks Trent, Cheers

  7. Avatar

    Jay

    April 21, 2021 at 7:34 pm

    Lloyd or Mills?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 8:34 pm

      ATM, Mills, higher average and costs 30 K

  8. Avatar

    Dan

    April 21, 2021 at 7:54 pm

    Great insights and appreciate your time to get back to everyone.

    Who do you think is the better medium term keeper of Stephenson and Phillips?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 8:35 pm

      Stephenson has the lower BE, but they both probably end up around the 580 K, so Phillips is the sell this week and Stephenson the next. For example you could use them both with a rookie to go up to a premium and down to a rookie.

  9. Avatar

    JJ

    April 21, 2021 at 8:38 pm

    Best player to get under 744k?
    And also F. Macrae or Farrar?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 9:58 pm

      Macrae for me- best player under 744 K all lines- logic says Ziebell, but get 3 K and go Neale. If you need the cash and Atu is fit, which I am not sure he is or isn’t, then just go a lower priced rookie.

  10. Avatar

    Harmes

    April 21, 2021 at 8:49 pm

    Hi Trent.

    Best pick this week

    Fyfe or
    Andy Brayshaw

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 9:56 pm

      Turner to Brayshaw is a chance. Fyfe as FWD makes him the better option, especially with the tag and Brayshaw not going awesome when tagged.

  11. Avatar

    Nick

    April 21, 2021 at 9:02 pm

    Trent what are your thoughts on Ward? Don’t have a lot of cash this week and he feels like a solid mid priced option with all the GWS injuries

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 9:54 pm

      Tough call, I am not sold, I think he is a 85 player at most and injuries at his age and banged up nature. Better going down to a rookie and then up next week with the cash.

  12. Avatar

    Phteven

    April 21, 2021 at 9:07 pm

    A great article, Trent. Love your work. A simple question: How many premiums should we aim to have by the end of the byes?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 21, 2021 at 9:53 pm

      you’d love to come out of the byes with at least 4 in DEF, 6 MID, 2 Ruck and 4 FWD, and then have the rest of your on field either rookies generating cash from a previous week downgrade or midpricers waiting to be upgraded, i.e Sholl at D5 or D6, Stephenson F5 or F6 and Powell at M7 or M8. But in reality, injuries and rookie omissions in your team will dictate. You could come out of the byes with an almost fully locked side if everything went right.

  13. Avatar

    Scott

    April 21, 2021 at 10:44 pm

    I know he won fantasy last year, but this guy seems incredibly stubborn. He refuses to look at Walsh unless he starts averaging 110, even though he’s averaging 110 in his last 3, but names Bolton as a “premium” to add to the list to buy, despite the fact Bolton averages 75 and 78 in his last 3…

    • Avatar

      Phteven

      April 21, 2021 at 11:08 pm

      As you said. . . . He won Fantasy last year. He’s giving advice and answering people’s questions very quickly and thoughtfully.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 4:41 am

      Happy to be stubborn. Bolton is an option not based on a comparison with Walsh, but based on the possibility of him being F6. If Walsh ends up M8, I am happy to be proven wrong. I like Walsh, but like a heap of MID’s at the moment is just below M8 and whilst Bolton is at the moment, the category he falls into is a player who began slowly, but could improve (like last year) and go close to F6.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 9:03 am

      Had another look at Walsh. He is currently M14, which is good and if you started with him you would be okay with his 102 average. And with a BE of 92 he is solid, but I wouldn’t be buying him between now and the byes. Remember the force of the discussion is under-priced premiums, especially between R6-15. Walsh may end up a buy from that period and in order to do so, he needs to keep his last 3 week average for the year.

      Bolton is a FWD who, whilst he got 38 3 rounds ago, the last two weeks has gone 90 and 107 and is currently with a 75 average and with a BE of 66. He has lost 66K from his 2020 score where he averaged around the F6 mark. This is seemingly the definition of a fallen player who might get close to the F6 of 2020. Not a buy, yet for me, but not off the the radar into the future.

  14. Avatar

    JMD012

    April 22, 2021 at 12:04 am

    Hey Trent! Absolutely love your work. I am in a tricky boat like a lot of coaches here. Basically I have no cash in bank. Not sure to do double downgrade this week or 1 upgrade 1 downgrade. I am set on reading either Campbell, Clark or Phillips. If all were selected which 2 would you offload first? And so this dictated my options.
    1) Phillips and Clark -> Neale/Gaff and Farrar/Mcreery
    2) Phillips and Campbell -> Neale and Downie/Bosenavulagi or Zorko/Treloar and Mcreery
    3) Clark and Campbell -> Farrar and Mcreery +$370k for next week
    Is Neale the real deal? Or possibly a replacement of Zorko for Phillips he better option.
    Sorry for all of the confusing options here, there is just too many.

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 4:37 am

      In a perfect world you’d go 1, but team selection will dictate. If Clark is not named he is the key guy to go with possibly Campbell, but if Campbell in then you sell whatever player you intend to sell anyway over the next 3 week which leads you to have the best cash generator and the best premium. If you cannot get that, this is when you go double downgrade.

  15. Avatar

    Sean

    April 22, 2021 at 8:11 am

    Get Bergman or Perkins?
    Also get T.Mitchell or Neale?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 8:40 am

      Perkins getting expensive, so Bergman and Mitchell, just because he is less likely to succumb to the tag

  16. Avatar

    Goughys Guns

    April 22, 2021 at 11:09 am

    Splitting Crisp and Stewart Trent??

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 1:18 pm

      There probably really isn’t anything meaningful to split them. You might say, if Geelong win more games maybe Stewart is a better option, but Crisp is going okay in an average side. I’d probably want both and I’d buy the one at the best price point and BE, and then look to get the other after the byes.

  17. Avatar

    Hobo

    April 22, 2021 at 11:25 am

    Ollie Wines is flying under the radar

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 1:15 pm

      I almost considered him at the start in the Taranto and Walsh price range. A 96 average if you have him, like Walsh, you are not crying, but I am not going to pick him up as I don’t think there is enough upside in his scoring.

  18. Avatar

    Chris

    April 22, 2021 at 11:35 am

    field idun or L.jones (if he plays)?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 1:13 pm

      Jones out which makes Idun the easy choice. Jones out for 4 weeks they say.

  19. Avatar

    Finn

    April 22, 2021 at 11:36 am

    Which two to field?
    H.Jones, F.Macrae, Rowe, Scott or Brockman

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 1:12 pm

      I’d EME Scott and see how he goes, I am not sure I could trust Jones and Brockman needs to be re-selected. So, before team selections I think it is Macrae and Rowe with the EME on Scott

  20. Avatar

    James

    April 22, 2021 at 4:05 pm

    Hi Trent
    Please help

    Best trade

    1. Fantasia to Fyfe or
    2. Serong to Neale/Gaff/Walsh?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 4:38 pm

      Neale will average more than al of them and is as cheap as he will get, assuming he doesn’t get manhandled too much by Curnow this week. If you think Curnow will tag, you could go Fantasia to Fyfe, hoping Cerra’s injury is good for both Fremantle players. Otherwise, Walsh and Gaff are safe, although gaff is at Geelong.

      • Avatar

        ShredderPigs

        April 22, 2021 at 4:47 pm

        Personally I believe Neale will go cheaper, he doesn’t score that well against Carlton around the 95mark on average. I’m pulling the trigger next week on him 🤙🏽

        • Aluniesheis

          Aluniesheis

          April 22, 2021 at 10:09 pm

          Either way, his BE is pretty low, but yes, I am willing to not buy this week and see how the Curnow tag goes and wait for a Gabba game. But he could still go up 10-30 K this week. For example, BE of 86 and if he scores 101 he’ll go up 15 K to 762K.

        • Euman

          Euman

          April 22, 2021 at 10:25 pm

          Same I think I went Dunkley this week. Jordon Clark out move Bergman back bring in finlay Macrae then Phillips to Dunkley leaves $100k

  21. Avatar

    Harmes

    April 22, 2021 at 6:16 pm

    Hi Trent.

    Best trade

    1. Jordon and Fantasia to ATU and Neale or
    2. Campbell and Fantasia to Finley and Fyfe?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 10:06 pm

      2 unless team selection issues. Jordon, at least until Harmes is back should get a game and should outscore Campbell (he might get a rest this week or next). Then at least you can see if Neale copes with the tag, I’d rather chose Neale playing at home.

  22. Avatar

    CrookedRooks

    April 22, 2021 at 10:50 pm

    Hey Trent, my plan has been to move one up / one down – to get rid of two of Clark / Fantasia / Serong / Jordon etc., and pick up F Macrae and a Crisp or similar.
    However a few more of my rookies are in strife, I have L Jones, Berry, Highmore, Dev Rob, and vulnerable ones like Campbell, Kosi, Mansell, Bergman.
    I’m tempted to stick to my guns and go for the upgrade, as I’m not that confident a Farrar / Rantall will be better in the long run – but what takes higher priority do you reckon?

    • Aluniesheis

      Aluniesheis

      April 22, 2021 at 11:10 pm

      Tightrope. You’ll need to wait until teams and maybe if you put an EME on a bench player early and see if they score. Clark if not named must go to rookie cash generator and with the cash team selection will dictate. Jones is 4 weeks and is not a hold. Campbell being rested is a week. Rantall a risk with DeGoey and Greenwood only a week. Maybe pull the pin and go Macrae and Farrar from Clark and Jones

      • Avatar

        CrookedRooks

        April 22, 2021 at 11:35 pm

        Thanks mate, great thoughts. One possible issues with that would be I’d be stacked with FWD/MID rookies and might need to spend next week fixing DEF rookies, falling behind another week in premium chase.
        If I’m avoiding donuts (might need Mansell to be named), what do you think of: Clark & Gulden/Serong to Neale and F Macrae (have Titch already) ?

  23. Avatar

    Cody O'Brien

    April 26, 2021 at 12:00 pm

    hey trent.
    Ive got a bit of a dilemma this week, got a forced trade in dunk but with my other trade i can go either lycett to gawn or i can go daniel up to any defender apart from lloyd(i have stewart and laird) I think the better option is to get rid of daniel considering he has a breakeven of 132, and go gawn next week. Just wondering what you think the best option for daniel would be and what the best option for dunks would be
    Cheers

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