The Thursday Scramble: Round 5

Wow, what a round that one was. Some great games, some close games, some injuries, some low scores and even a suspension. This is what makes this game so much fun and so challenging. Add to that we are now starting to see some of our rookies not get a game and be rested. There is no better time to Scramble!

Hold ’em or Fold ’em?

We have now reached the fun part of the game…. what to do with injured and suspended players or just blokes that aren’t scoring well!  Do we hold em or do we fold em?

I would love to say there is a simple formula to this but unfortunately there isn’t. As always it comes down to the individual situation of your team. But there are a few ‘golden rules’ that I can suggest and things that I think of when we are looking at situations like this. Most seasoned players will be all over this but some of the newer players may not be.

Short Term Suspensions
We have a prime example of that this week with Caleb Daniel out for a week. Whilst there is a heavy desire to trade him out (I have that feeling personally), it may not be the best play to make. We know he is only out for one week, we know he isn’t injured so can still run and participate in full training and we know that he will come straight back into the side in Round 6. So here you need to weigh up whether or not you have cover on the benches. A few weeks ago we were all boasting about having 30 playing players in our sides, well now we aren’t so lucky and it can cause a problem. If you have someone on your bench like a Chapman from Freo then you could be forgiven for holding Daniel. This is certainly what you should be trying to do when you are playing the limited trade forms of the game. Even in AF, if you can survive for a week with Caleb on the bench then you can use your trades to fix up somewhere else in your side and be stronger once he comes back. Usually the max you want to hold here is for 2 weeks, anything longer than that you would be looking to trade.

Underperforming Premium
Caleb can fall into this category too. Two of his last three games haven’t been good and the last one was simply horrible. So even taking the above into account you may want to trade him out as we know he will lose plenty of value in the next couple of games he plays. What you can do is look to trade him out now with a view that he will be significantly cheaper in a couple of weeks and you can bring him back in then and you have effectively played the breakeven game. Certainly a very good strategy for building value in your side. The only downside here is whether or not you have the available trades or cash later on to bring them back in as we know there is always a new problem being thrown at us by the Fantasy gods.

A rookie that has had a bad score
I am sure that James Jordon is on many lists as a player that may be traded out this week thanks to his low score on Sunday at the G. This is a tough one because since the low score has only just happened. So what this means that their price will be stalled until this score drops out of the pricing cycle. What you need to consider here is whether or not this is a one off or if it is looking to be an ongoing trend. By trading him out now you may be cashing him in an missing out on potential future price rises. Normally we would look to make over $100k from a rookie at a minimum. So often we will wait to see what happens this week, that is just the risk we take.

When you get down to it the real key in terms of holding someone that isn’t playing this week is having adequate cover. If you can improve other parts of your team whilst holding your premium that is either injured, suspended or not performing quite at the right level over the last week or two then this will benefit your team in the longer term. This will take nerves of steel when you are sitting there with a superstar on the bench while you are watching a $180k rookie trying to make up some points in their place!  Good Luck!!

When do I worry about Byes?

We still have quite a few rounds to go before the byes but the time to start thinking about the byes is when you start to upgrade players that you will have in your side through that period. Don’t let it completely dominate your decision however keep it in the back of your mind and it can certainly help you as a tie breaker if you can’t split two players.

We will talk about Byes in the coming weeks but just have it in the back of your mind at this stage.

Things to Remember

• Rookies will fail. Don’t panic, they won’t always be great each week and they will be up and down. Sometimes you just have to ride the rollercoaster.
• If a superstar fails on a weekend, don’t worry too much as most of the competition is likely to be in the same boat.
• Have your trades planned out and have options. We have talked about this already this season but just thought I would give you a reminder.

Sorry for the short one this week folks, I have had a very busy week which has precluded me from being able to go into too much detail for you. Hopefully you have a good weekend of scoring. Just remember that this game is a marathon not a sprint. Don’t worry too much about a low scoring week which is what we saw last week.
Have a great weekend and I will be back next week and try and provide you with some more insights to help you get to the top of your league.