The 2020 AFL Trade Period is over and Warnie takes a look at every move from free agents to team-to-team trades with his AFL Fantasy glasses on. Discuss your thoughts in the comments!
Projected prices are based on last season’s formulas. At this stage we are calculating the figures based on the 2020 salary cap of $13,000,000 and the magic number of 7418 with the sane discounting applied as per previous seasons. These prices are approximate. Wherever a previous average has been applied, the multiplier used for the average has been adjusted. At this stage we don’t know what the 2021 salary cap is for the season proper and therefore the Fantasy Classic salary cap. Also, it is unclear if discounts based on games played will change due to the shorter season.
LATEST UPDATE: 8:00pm, Thursday November 12
NICK HIND TO ESSENDON
2020 AVERAGE: 42.9 (10 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $398,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Recruited as a mature aged half-back from the Bombers VFL side, Hind has played 21 games for the Saints as a small forward. Possibly replaces Fantasia, so don’t expect huge Fantasy numbers as a small forward… but if he can be trained up as a half-back to replace Saad or McKenna, then he could be an interesting option. WAIT ON ROLE.
ADAM TRELOAR TO WESTERN BULLDOGS
2020 AVERAGE: 87.7 (8 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $782,000
FANTASY VERDICT: What a saga! Treloar gets out of the Pies – for whatever reason – but what we know now is that he’s in a ridiculous midfield which probably makes it hard to even pick any Dogs MIDs with confidence in Fantasy. Treloar will be close to fully priced which makes him hard to start with in Classic with the unknown, but we’re probably still looking at a late first rounder, early second in Draft. Soft tissue injuries have been an issue, but we know how good he is… first two seasons were 81.6 and 88.9 abd then went at 103.4, 103.7, 111.5, 108, 108.4 and 113.6. UPGRADE TARGET.
JEREMY CAMERON TO GEELONG
TRADE – Thursday November 12
2020 AVERAGE: 51.1 (17 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $474,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Hub life didn’t go well for Cameron who averaged his worst, BCV equivalent, since 2014. His last three years made him a relevant Draft player with averages of 99.2, 77.9 and 87.5. While Working in tandem with Tom Hawkins, who we should remember was the Coleman Medallist this year, may mean his numbers don’t reach that peak, but he’s better than the 63.9 he’s going to be priced at. SOME VALUE IN DRAFT.
JYE CALDWELL TO ESSENDON
2020 AVERAGE: 54.2 (9 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $487,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Down the pecking order at GWS with this packed midfield, Caldwell should slot into the Bombers’ centre-line. Caldwell was pick 11 in the 2018 draft but his numbers at junior level weren’t too special. Output should be much better at the Bombers with the added opportunity, but you could be better placed with other mid-priced options. WATCHLIST, BUT DON’T EXPECT MIRACLES.
TOM PHILLIPS TO HAWTHORN
2020 AVERAGE: 63 (15 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $584,000
FANTASY VERDICT: If Phillips retains the FWD status he added in round six, then he could be an absolute bargain for the Hawks via trade (exchange for pick 65), but also for Fantasy coaches in 2021. Prior to his 63 this year (79 BCV), Phillips averaged 83.3, 95.4 and 90.4 in the three years prior. Phillips has missed just four games in the last four seasons. This year it was a hamstring in round 15, so missed finals. He’s been a member of Roy’s Rollin’ 22 in the past so surely has some Fantasy pedigree about him. WATCHLIST.
ORAZIO FANTASIA TO PORT ADELAIDE
2020 AVERAGE: 39.2 (5 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $342,000 (15% discount on 2019 average)
FANTASY VERDICT: Fantasia’s best season was 2018 when he averaged 79.4. Due to discounts, he’ll be priced at 46BCV. While this puts him well unders, there is a fair bit of risk considering he’s played 32 of a possible 66 games in the last three seasons. The 24+ points of upside isn’t really enough to have a dabble for value in Classic or Draft. PASS.
JAIDYN STEPHENSON TO NORTH MELBOURNE
2020 AVERAGE: 49.1 (12 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $455,000
FANTASY VERDICT: We’ll be getting Stephenson as a bargain in Fantasy Classic if he can get back to his sophomore year form where he averaged 80.6. His 61.4 BCV from this year, and what he will be priced at, is more than 19 lower than what we dished up his 2019. The 2018 NAB Rising Star should be considered with opportunity at the Roos. UNDERPRICED, PLACE ON WATCHLIST.
ATU BOSENAVULAGI TO NORTH MELBOURNE
2020 AVERAGE: 27.3 (3 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $200,000 (21% discount)
FANTASY VERDICT: With three games to his name this year… including a solid 18 disposal game for 51 on debut, Bosenavulagi will be close to basement priced next year. The FWD struggled in his other two games, posting 25 and 6. North have dumped a heap of players and Atu is every chance to cement himself a spot in the team and if named in round one, he’ll be a popular rookie priced player. BENCH OPTION IN CLASSIC.
ALEX WITHERDEN TO WEST COAST
2020 AVERAGE: 77.8 (6 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $635,000 (12% discount)
FANTASY VERDICT: Witho is a ball-magnet. We all remember, and loved, his first two seasons that saw him average 88. He loves the mark-kick game and he will slot into the Eagles’ backline and his numbers will be as good as ever playing at Optus Stadium . In 2020, his average was equivalent to 97 BCV but his Classic discount brings him down to 86. A huge chance – maybe even a lock – to be a top 10 defender. Upside at his price and should be low risk. A D1 IN DRAFT, CONSIDER AS A PREMIUM IN CLASSIC.
JACK HIGGINS TO ST KILDA
2020 AVERAGE: 59 (10 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $547,000
FANTASY VERDICT: If Higgins gets the opportunity to have the ball in his hands more, then he could be a good buy in 2021. As a kid, Higgins averaged 120 in the Under 18 Championships and 110 in the TAC Cup… likened to none-other than our Pig, Tom Rockliff. Higgins will be priced at his highest point since entering the AFL but there could be some upside if there’s some midfield clock. Keep an eye on him over the pre-season for role. WATCHLIST.
BEN BROWN TO MELBOURNE
2020 AVERAGE: 38.5 (9 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $541,000 (3% discount on 2019 average)
FANTASY VERDICT: Brown had his worst Fantasy year to date. If he had have played one more game, he’s be an absolute steal as he performed well below his usual 70 average. We’ll basically be paying close to full price for him in Fantasy Classic, but consider as a bench option in Draft as the numbers next to his name will be incredibly low. Adjust your ranks! PASS.
TOM HICKEY TO SYDNEY SWANS
2020 AVERAGE: 33.6 (3 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $406,000
FANTASY VERDICT: With Naismith out for what is likely to be most of 2021 with an ACL, Hickey will be working with Cal Sinclair as the Swans’ main men in the ruck. Hickey has previously been at three clubs (Suns, Saints, Eagles) and only once played ‘most of the season’… 2016 for 20 games and a respectable Fantasy average of 78.1. Hickey will turn 30 on the eve of the next season, which is still in the prime-time for some rucks… but what do we expect from him? It will all be about the opportunity and how Sydney deal with two big men. The new No. 1 ruck? Depth? Tandem? Monitor over the preseason. NOT UNLESS SINCLAIR IS ON THE OUTER.
SHAUN HIGGINS TO GEELONG
2020 AVERAGE: 76.1 (17 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $706,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Higgins busted out a stock-standard year this year… another BCV mid-90s average just like he had done in his previous three at the Roos. It’s going to be a stretch to say the 33-year-old will be value next season coming off his (equivalent) career best return. Higgins should play through the midfield and numbers will again be there, but there are more mouths to feed at the Cats. You’re drafting him at around the M3 to M4 range at best in Draft. One to monitor in the pre-season, but you could potentially be overpaying for him based on his 2020 return. WATCH IN DRAFT.
ALIIR ALIIR TO PORT ADELAIDE
2020 AVERAGE: 44.2 (14 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $410,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Aliir isn’t going to be relevant to many Fantasy coaches, but he’ll most likely produce better Fantasy numbers than he did this year – even if it’s just because he has an injured score of 3 next to his name. His BCV average of 55 this year is 15 points down on his 2018 output… but realistically, his only value is to those who pick him up off the waiver in Draft if he is taking bulk marks like he did back in ’18. PASS.
ADAM SAAD TO CARLTON
2020 AVERAGE: 66.2 (17 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $553,000
FANTASY VERDICT: It took a bit of to-and-fro, but we the Blues got their man. 2020 was his best season to date, playing every game and averaging 66.2 (BCV 82.75). His previous best was 67.2 in 2019. Saad’s move will be interesting for himself in the sense that he’s not coming in cheap by any means, but as a durable player missing just one game in the last four seasons, Saad could be among the Blues’ good scorers off half-back that we have seen in recent times (Docherty, Simpson, Newman). It may mean those guys – Simpson retired – may not score as freely. A preseason watch on how the Blues will be lining up – especially as they’ve added Mr Midfield Zac Williams to the mix. WAIT ON SAAD.
NAKIA COCKATOO TO BRISBANE LIONS
2020 AVERAGE: DNP
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $236,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Two full years out of the game will have Cockatoo qualify for a 35% discount in Fantasy Classic. This will price him at under 32 in the range of a lot of rookies and a potential F5 or F6. The issue is that his body has let him down, playing just 34 games since his 2015 debut. The 24-year-old may be up against it to crack the Lions’ 22, but he definitely has some tricks to be playing at the AFL level. CHEAP IF HIS BODY IS RIGHT… AND HE GETS GAMES.
LACHIE FOGARTY TO CARLTON
2020 AVERAGE: 58.1 (6 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $474,000
FANTASY VERDICT: A slight discount is applied to Fogarty’s decent 2020 return that has him priced around 63 BCV. While this is unders, he could return a 70-ish BCV average, which wouldn’t be enough for make him really a lot of value… considering if he’s more of a forward than a midfielder, his numbers will be up and down. PASS.
STEFAN MARTIN TO WESTERN BULLDOGS
TRADE – Tuesday November 10
2020 AVERAGE: 45 (6 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $553,000
FANTASY VERDICT: We love Stef, but his Fantasy days are over. Let’s take a moment to remember his 112 average in 2014 (same year as Rocky’s record 135) and his 85 career average. By playing only 6 games, he gets a discount, but it is applied to his 84.7 average of 2019, so he’s not really going to be priced very cheap considering they’ll be playing Stef alongside Tim English (at best). The Fantasy relevance of this move is those English believers this year who saw some great games – and some poor ones – won’t get instant love in 2021 if the plan is to play them in tandem. Oscar McInerney’s stocks have risen at the Lions. PASS.
LACHIE YOUNG TO NORTH MELBOURNE
2020 AVERAGE: 38 (2 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $266,000
FANTASY VERDICT: One to keep an eye on for a D5/D6 starter in Fantasy Classic. Young pumped out a 76 when he racked up 18 disposals and 8 marks in his third game. While his career average of 45 is modest from his 8 games, all signs point to the former Dog being part of North’s back-six following a larger number of players leaving the club. We all saw Luke McDonald’s numbers last season, so there’s a chance that Young could see a decent uptick in points in 2021. WATCHLIST.
BRAYDON PREUSS TO GWS GIANTS
2020 AVERAGE: 50 (3 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $366,000 (21% discount)
FANTASY VERDICT: After a shocking call a couple of years ago to go to the Demons to sit behind Max Gawn, Preuss moves to the Giants and is likely to assume the role as first ruck. A discount prices the big fella at sub-50 (BCV) which makes him a bargain buy in Fantasy Classic if he is the sole ruckman. The Giants have Shane Mumford on the list, who was their No. 1 choice as Sam Jacobs didn’t work out for them. At 25-years-old, Preuss has the opportunity to be relevant as a top 10 Fantasy ruckman in the competition as we saw with his first season, scoring back-to-back scores of 105 in his second and third games. Early favourite to be the most popular R2. A RELEVANT PLAYER IN 2021.
MITCH HANNAN TO WESTERN BULLDOGS
2020 AVERAGE: 38.1 (9 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $343,000
FANTASY VERDICT: It’s hard to back in a small forward. While his price is down 10-15 points on what his output was in his first two seasons, he’s never averaged more than 60 BCV in his four year career. PASS.
PETER WRIGHT TO ESSENDON
2020 AVERAGE: DNP
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $355,000
FANTASY VERDICT: There’s some value in 2-metre-Peter at the Bombers for Fantasy Classic. He didn’t get a game this year, but with Daniher’s departure (as well as McKernan’s delisting), he has every opportunity to be a ’22 game’ key forward for the Dons. Wright averaged 69, 70, 58 and 68 in his last four seasons. As he didn’t play this year, his 30% discount will price him at 48 BCV. If he can go 65+ like he did in 2016/2017, then you could consider for Classic. In saying that you should get just as much output and value out of a sub-$300k rookie. Ruck minutes (chopping out for Draper) would help boost his score, but don’t hold your breath. WATCH, BUT A GAMBLE.
SHAUN MCKERNAN TO ST KILDA
2020 AVERAGE: 39.5 (9 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $489,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The Saints added the 30-year-old as some ruck/forward depth as he’s unlikely to be getting a game in front of Marshall or Ryder. While he may end up with a game or two throughout the year, we’re not considering McKernan as an option in Fantasy. PASS.
KYLE HARTIGAN TO HAWTHORN
2020 AVERAGE: 38.3 (12 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $355,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Key defender who will get games at the Hawks due to retirements and injuries… but don’t expect much. Career average of 46.7 from 106 games probably says it all. PASS.
BRAD CROUCH TO ST KILDA
2020 AVERAGE: 74.1 (12 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $687,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Brad Crouch has been a ball-magnet throughout his career. He averaged 92 on debut, backed up with 92.5, missed a season, 87, 103.1, missed another season and 107.8 before a Coronaball 74.1 (BCV 92.6). Based on those last couple of seasons, specifically his 2019, Brad is underpriced… but around 15 points. Injury has affected his career to date. Only once has he played a full season. He’s played just 90 of a possible 171 games. We saw some big numbers from Jack Steele this year (avg 91), so his output may take a hit. Crouch has been able to score well around others – such as his brother – so whatever Steele is doing shouldn’t affect him too much. A big issue is that Crouch has a 2 game ban to start the season due to the incident following the end of the season. WATCHLIST, SECOND-THIRD ROUND IN DRAFT.
JESSE HOGAN TO GWS GIANTS
2020 AVERAGE: 48.7 (7 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $446,000 (9% discount applied to 2019 average)
FANTASY VERDICT: Hogan’s last year at the Dees was his best from a Fantasy perspective, averaging 89 from 20 games. Even prior to that, he posted season averages of 74.4 (debut season) and 79. He played 12 games in 2019 at the Dockers to average 66 and then 7 games at 48.7 this year (BCV 60.9). Based on his output at the Dees, Hogan presents some value. Jeremy Cameron appears to be out the door, so there will be a role for him to play alongside Riccardi who showed a bit as a tall forward in the back-half of this season. Hogan is a risk based on his injury history and while he offers value in Classic, these mid-priced key forwards aren’t usually very productive. WATCHLIST FOR SOME VALUE IN DRAFT.
OLEG MARKOV TO GOLD COAST
2020 AVERAGE: 42.6 (6 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $359,000 (12% discount applied to 2019 average)
FANTASY VERDICT: One to watch during the pre-season as there could be an opportunity for greater Fantasy output on the Suns’ half-back flank. Although it hasn’t be a happy Fantasy hunting ground at Gold Coast for similar players (Hanley or Harbrow hardly set the world on fire), he does possess a few tricks. Markov scored 95 on debut in 2016 and also posted 101 and 89 in his first season for the Tigers as a 20-year-old. We’ll keep an eye on him during the pre-season as he does offer some Fantasy Classic value down back. WATCHLIST.
ZAC LANGDON TO WEST COAST
2020 AVERAGE: 35.1 (7 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $297,000
FANTASY VERDICT: A cash cow in his first season (2018) where he played 19 games and averaged 50.7. Since then Langdon has played 10 games for a BCV average of 44. While his price at under-$300k puts him in the range of an inflated rookie, there isn’t going to be enough upside for basically a forward pocket that may just be considered as depth. PASS.
AIDAN CORR TO NORTH MELBOURNE
2020 AVERAGE: 50.3 (15 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $466,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Corr has a bit of Fantasy love early this season when he scored 79 and 76 in rounds three and four due to his starting price of $270k. Those were his two highest scores of the season (and when crunching BCV figures, his career). These helped Corr reach a price of $496k on the eve of the bye. He’s going to be a hard sell… considering the low numbers he put up, which were more of the norm, and his career average of 42.3 is very, very low. PASS.
ZAC WILLIAMS TO CARLTON
2020 AVERAGE: 65.6 (11 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $608,000
FANTASY VERDICT: More midfield time. He’s our first official MMT call of the trade period and we love it! Williams had an injury affected season which gave him a BCV average of 82, his lowest in the last four seasons. In 2019 he posted his best numbers, 92.7 average from 20 games. That 10 point bump on previous seasons came about when Williams received some midfield minutes for the Giants when given the opportunity in the guts covering for their injured stars. He averaged 109 for the last six rounds. After being a half-back flanker for his career, it has been talked up that he’ll be playing through the midfield at the Blues. Williams will be a popular selection in Classic due to the upside for the MMT as well as his natural discount from a couple of disappointing showings this year. Should be a top 10 defender which will make him an interesting Draft selection, but you have to consider his injury history (Williams has never played a full season and is coming off Achilles issues). VALUE PICK AND A TOP DEFENDER.
JOE DANIHER TO BRISBANE LIONS
2020 AVERAGE: 48 (4 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $420,000 (18% discount applied to 2019 average)
FANTASY VERDICT: Daniher’s triumphant return in round 14 saw the key forward boot three goals and rack up 85 points. From there he scored 33, 23 and 34. It was a feat for him to play out the season, albeit with a rest, considering he managed just 11 games in the two years prior. Daniher’s best season was in 2017 where he averaged 84.7 playing 22 games. In the four years prior to 2018, he missed just 2 games. His best is great and he is heavily discounted (prices him at 57 BCV). Unfortunately he’s a huge risk because of his body. DISCOUNTED, BUT RISKY.
ISAAC SMITH TO GEELONG
2020 AVERAGE: 64.8 (10 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $601,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Smith turns 32 in December and his Fantasy numbers are dropping. While he managed three scores over 80 with 85, and 2x 99s this season (aka BCV tons), his return was his second worst (equivalent) for his 10 year career. His average of 71 prior to his round 11 shoulder injury on just 8 wasn’t terrible, but prior to that he was listed as a MID only and not an option to start in most Draft leagues. He did enough to be awarded FWD status by Champion Data. If he retains that, he’ll be in the conversation as a top 10 forward depending on which big dogs retain (or gain) DPP. Although he doesn’t have the ball-winning prowess of the other midfielders at the Cats, Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola and Dangerfield all averaged over 80 this year to be the club with the most midfielders to average the old BCV ton. The biggest watch this pre-season will be where Duncan plays (pushed back inside?) and whether Dangerfield will spend even more time forward. DRAFT RELEVANT WITH FWD STATUS.
RORY ATKINS TO GOLD COAST
2020 AVERAGE: 35.5 (4 games)
2021 PROJECTED PRICE: $495,000 (18% discount applied to 2019 average)
FANTASY VERDICT: The former Crow has been a consistent Fantasy performer over the years. From 2016-2019 he played 84 of a possible 88 games, averaging 73, 81, 80 and 81 but sadly, these numbers haven’t made him an overly relevant pick, except maybe in deeper draft leagues. This year he managed just four games in an injury interrupted season for an average of just 35.5 (44.4 BCV). For those considering him as a Fantasy Classic bargain, his discount will be applied to his 2019 average, pricing him at approx. 66 BCV. Atkins’ shoulder injury required surgery but will be set to start pre-season training and likely to slot on a wing. Do his Fantasy numbers increase? Maybe. Can you bank on it? Not for me. EVEN IF HE RETURNS FIGURES AKIN TO HIS CONSISTENT 80 BCV NUMBERS, HE’S STILL PLACED 80-90 IN MID DRAFT RANKINGS.
KEY OFF-SEASON DATES
October 30-November 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4-12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment #1
November 27: List Lodgment #2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates
Discuss the trades and any Fantasy value you find in players at their new club in the comments.