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The Friday Scramble

The Thursday Scramble: Round 6

The one good thing about this season is gone, Rowell. So what do we do now? Easy….. Scramble!

Well it isn’t just us fantasy owners scrambling this week. With everything going on we have now seen the Victorian AFL teams scrambling to get out of Victoria! This has brought with it issues with our teams too. Add to that we had some injuries over the weekend and once again we have more issues with our sides than we know what to do with. Having lost the best rookie of the season we have nothing left to do but Scramble!

Fun Fact of the Week

So this week will see the first time in VFL/SANFL/WAFL/QAFL/NTFL/AFL* and any other league’s history that NO club is playing in their home STATE! Not just home ground, but home state!!

*Well I think this is right for at least the AFL, and am fairly sure of the other leagues.

Rising Star, Falling Star

We had one certainty in what is a ridiculously difficult season. And that was that we had a gold mine by the name of Matthew Rowell. He is probably the most dominant rookie we have ever seen, and we thought we had seen everything with Walsh last season. But now we have to find a way to live without him for what is appearing to be up to 3 months. The main problem we have is that he hasn’t quite reached enough value to straight swap for another premium. So you have a decision to make. Do you go up or do you go down?

A lot of this decision will be based on what you have in the bank and what you need to do with your second trade.

Now I am not going to say too much about who you should be trading in. But suffice to say that you should be looking for the best option to suit your team. Here area few thoughts on what you should do.

  • 1. Look for Value
    Given that he isn’t worth enough yet to trade straight to a premium don’t go and blow all your cash to get him to the top priced players. What I will be doing is looking at who the fallen premiums are and targeting one of them. The one thing you don’t want to do is compromise the rest of your team. If you sell the farm to get in someone like Lachie Neale then you will be possibly compromising your side.
    What a better strategy to do is to look for a way that you can continue to build your team by either trading him for another rookie that is on the way up and using the rest to upgrade a fully fattened cash cow. The other thing you could do is to straight trade him for a player of similar price that has a very low break even and will continue to appreciate in price.
  • 2. Utilise your DPP
    Given that Rowell is in the midfield he opens up plenty of options. So have a look at who is available in each line. Given that often the defenders and the forwards are cheaper than the mids you may find it much easier to upgrade him in one of those lines. The other option is to look at the rookies on those lines too and perhaps use one of them.
  • 3. There may not be a quick fix
    With the money that you get from Rowell you are unlikely to immediately be able to replace the points he has been getting you. There are very few players at that price point that are going to get you a 100 most weeks or even be a shot at being in Calvin’s Captains. The great thing about this is that you are not the only person in this situation. 60% of AFL Fantasy teams, 80% of Real Dreamteam teams and 76% of Supercoaches are all in the same boat.
  • 4. You don’t have to trade this week
    I hear you say, “what the hell are you on about?” As I have said here a number of times, not trading an injured player is always a valid strategy. The key is that their price won’t change but others will. Now I will admit this isn’t often a good strategy, but if you have much bigger issues that you want to trade out who will fall in price AND you have decent coverage for Rowell then you could wait a week to move him on. Like I said, this is not the ideal strategy as you should look to use his cash, but it is certainly a valid one in some circumstances.

Hub Life

No not that hub Roy, we are talking about the hubs that the AFL teams all find themselves in. The key thing here is to check on who is missing from the Hub. Probably the biggest name that is not going, that I know of at the moment, is Bachar Houli. Quite simply you need to trade him. The people that it hurts most is Draft owners. There isn’t much that you can do about it because you won’t be able to replace his points from the waiver wire. You may be best to look to package up one of your other premiums to get two players in return.

If we end up with the situation that looks most likely which is more games on more days, like Mondays and if the AFL get’s what it wants which is something like 5 games in 32 days for teams, this is going to put stress on the lists. What it means for us is that we are likely to see some of our older stars perhaps rested or at least given limited minutes and we are likely to see some new rookies get a game as they try and manage their lists. Rather than seeing this as a problem for our teams it is a massive opportunity.

This would give us more options for downgrades and it would certainly make draft comps much more interesting! It will widen out the player pool with a bit of luck.  We are already seeing word of a couple of debutants for the Swans this week. And Richmond are certainly going to need some players with their injuries and a couple of their best 22 not heading north.

Fyfe Life

There have been some rumours circling that Fyfe is a chance to be named and to play this weekend. If indeed they are true and I was not an owner of Fyfe, I wouldn’t be bringing him in. I think if he does play his time on ground will be severlely managed and he is likely to be only going at 75% (which is arguably as good as most other players 100%). Hamstrings for an athletic and explosive player like Fyfe are not good and I really don’t think it is ideal for him to play.

As a non Fyfe owner in some formats I actually want him to play and to have a managed game so that he misses his BE by a fair bit and falls to a level that means I can get him soon!

Things To Remember

  • After this round we are nearly half way through the minor round of the Fantasy Season!
  • Home ground advantage is going to be very scarce this year now so use previous year’s stats carefully.
  • Lachie Neale plays Thursday night if you normally leave the C on him by default.
  • Max Gawn and Lachie Neale are getting too expensive to bring in. You may need to wait for one bad game to be able to afford them.

Another tough week of Fantasy coming up. It seems to be the norm this year. Hopefully the Warne Dawg has some good news for us for a change when he reads out the teams on the Facebook Live video later tonight. I know he certainly didn’t do my team any favours last week. Thankfully Rivers held his spot otherwise I would have had a donut in all three forms of the game. I really think we will see more of these rookies that are on our benches getting a game now because of what I mentioned above and that is the tight turnaround in games and some injuries starting to find their way into the season.  See you all next week!

48 Comments

48 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Perplexed

    July 9, 2020 at 9:21 am

    Bailey Smith had a minus BE prior to last week’s game and he scored 1. Yet his price dropped $44K. How does that work?

    • Avatar

      Sean

      July 9, 2020 at 9:58 am

      It wasn’t minus mate

    • Will

      Will

      July 9, 2020 at 10:05 am

      The price rises and falls are based on the overall total score of the round, from all players. So the initial break even can only ever be an estimate. That being said, for a guy who scored 60 then 61 with a price of $613k, I doubt he had a negative break even…

      • Avatar

        Marcus

        July 9, 2020 at 1:53 pm

        I noticed his last 2 scores were in the 60’s. Not really sure why people are saying he scores well. But by saying that I had him in my team and as I’ve been saying all year I’m just playing BE game for a while that’s why this week I’m bringing in both Daicos and Greenwood

    • Avatar

      J

      July 9, 2020 at 11:29 pm

      His breakeven was around 40-45 before that concussion score, not a minus score. You’re confusing it for Rowell’s BE, which was negative.

      I remember cause I had to look up (and Rowell’s) when they got those low scores for me at the time.

  2. Avatar

    Kirk Mackintosh

    July 9, 2020 at 9:30 am

    I am DPP Whitfield into the Midfield then Aarts into the forward line and waiting to see what happens with Brander this week either bringing a premo into backline or forward line or maybe even mids with Parfit

    • Avatar

      Dunny

      July 9, 2020 at 1:45 pm

      Look reasonable to me mate

      • Avatar

        Slavic Princess

        July 9, 2020 at 4:22 pm

        Whitfield or McCluggage in for Rowell?

        • Avatar

          Marcus

          July 9, 2020 at 4:47 pm

          Bring Whitfield in mate. He is a lot cheaper which gives you more room to move next week. Now that we are back to 2 Trades I feel bringing in Whitfield is a good move.

          I had 151k in bank so I bring in Daicos who is scoring ok and Greenwood who I think will benefit from Rowell being out Injured. Plus both have a BE of 12

          • Avatar

            Slavic Princess

            July 9, 2020 at 7:06 pm

            Whitfield it is, thanks mate!

  3. Avatar

    M8

    July 9, 2020 at 9:51 am

    Thoughts on this!
    DEF: Lloyd, Docherty, Crisp, Weller, Smith, Rivers (Starcevich, Williams)
    MID: Cripps, Dangerfield, Viney, Cogs, McGrath, Mitchell, Rowell, Serong (Pickett, McInerney)
    RUCK: Gawn, Pittonet (Xerri)
    FWDS: Petracca, Simpkin, Smith, Keays, Taylor, Budarick (King, Sturt)
    UTL: Brown
    Cash:$64k
    Option A:
    -Budarick to Aarts
    and
    -Brown (via Rivers) to Young
    Leaves Young and Aarts on field and Pickett on field for Rowell.
    Cash: $92k would look to downgrade and then get Rowell to Whitfield/Swallow next week
    Option B:
    -Budarick to Aarts
    and
    -Rowell to Whitfield/Swallow
    Leaning towards option A personally as after this week Young may be put of reach and I see him as the best defender rookie. But than again if I get another injury next week I could be stuffed

    • Avatar

      The Candyman

      July 9, 2020 at 12:52 pm

      Option B for me. Whitfield has bottomed out. I don’t trust Swallow. I wouldn’t leave yourself exposed to injuries.

  4. Avatar

    Polomiko28

    July 9, 2020 at 9:53 am

    Who is the higher priority trade Hunter Clark or Jack Viney?

    • Avatar

      Squid

      July 9, 2020 at 12:22 pm

      Viney for mine, more to lose in mids.

    • Avatar

      Dunny

      July 9, 2020 at 1:45 pm

      Viney

  5. Avatar

    thebopper58

    July 9, 2020 at 10:36 am

    ” I love the smell of napalm in the morning” but i fear the stench of upcoming of carnage tonight

    • Avatar

      Marcus

      July 9, 2020 at 4:51 pm

      WOW, thought I might be the only one thinking that “thebopper58”. The game is at the SCG and without the home team SWANS playing I think it might not be a huge scoring game.

  6. Avatar

    Lachie Whitfield

    July 9, 2020 at 10:57 am

    SANFL teams are definitely playing in their home state this weekend, think it’s just the AFL for that fun fact

    • Avatar

      Squid

      July 9, 2020 at 11:49 am

      I think that’s exactly what he is saying, it has never happened in any comp at any level ever.

      • Avatar

        Dunny

        July 9, 2020 at 1:43 pm

        Spot on Squid, never happened anywhere in any comp (to be fair for a state league to play all games outside their own state would be really weird.

  7. Avatar

    Squid

    July 9, 2020 at 11:10 am

    On Neale, I have a different take and feel getting him now is a must. Don’t get me wrong at that crazy price there is risk if he goes down injured or something but if he continues as he has he stands to get even more expensive with his BE still in the 30s putting him even more out of reach and the gap between him and the rest is like having an extra rookie on field. That’s the way I’m going anyway……. Actually apologies in advance for ruining him.

    • Avatar

      Dunny

      July 9, 2020 at 1:44 pm

      Certainly valid Squid and I do think I should have brought him in weeks ago but now I just don’t have the cash to use on him as it needs to be spread a bit more.
      But I agree with your take as a 100% valid option.

    • Avatar

      CondomHead FitzSimons

      July 9, 2020 at 1:46 pm

      Capt Neale for me this week

    • Avatar

      Butch

      July 9, 2020 at 3:43 pm

      What are the chances of Lachie getting some attention from Guthrie this week and then the Dutch Oven next week? I think he will still score relatively well and not lose any coin, but I would be a bit pissed to pay $930 k for someone to come in and score 80 or 90.

  8. Avatar

    BigBoz

    July 9, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    Legends. Really like Treloar but not sure whether I should hunt value instead:

    Option 1
    Rowell & Budarick to Treloar & Aarts

    Option 2
    Rowel & Brander to Haynes & Aarts

    • Avatar

      Dunny

      July 9, 2020 at 1:45 pm

      If Brander is out again then go option 2. I would give Treloar one more week if you can.

  9. Avatar

    Jay

    July 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm

    Need some advice

    1) T brown and Rowell out for Aarts and vandermeer and 400k for next week
    2) Rowell and pittonet out for Aarts and gawn and 13k
    3) T brown and Rowell out for Aarts and anyone 697k and under – Haynes/ menegola/ sheed/ Whitfield

    • Avatar

      Squid

      July 9, 2020 at 2:29 pm

      All 3 have their merit and would depend on your team and what you are planning longer term but for me 2 wins for instant reward and shouldn’t hurt you long term either. Then 3 is almost as good, 1 I think would be better with a different choice than vandermeer.

      • Avatar

        Jay

        July 9, 2020 at 2:54 pm

        Team is
        Doc/ smith/ houston/ crisp/ young/ starc (rivers/ ash)
        Neale/ macrae/ Adams/ titch/ cong/ Rowell/ Anderson/ serong (mcinerny/ t brown)
        Goldy/ pitt (xerri)
        Parfitt/ simpkin/ petracca/ brayshaw/ taylor/ budarick (king/ cavarra)
        Cameron

        • Avatar

          Squid

          July 9, 2020 at 4:02 pm

          I reckon I’d lean towards 3 now seeing your team, Gawn very good but Grundy has got to be the goal, 3 definitely improves the team and fingers crossed boosts cash generation and on field rookie reliability (though Aarts consistency does remain to be seen)

    • Avatar

      Marcus

      July 9, 2020 at 4:57 pm

      If it was me Jay I would go the second option

  10. Avatar

    LB

    July 9, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    Swallow or Parfitt?

    • Avatar

      Squid

      July 9, 2020 at 4:09 pm

      Didn’t a talking donkey once say everyone loves Parfitt?…
      Tough call, will know better next week, depends on if you think Parfitt can keep it up vs does Swallow step up for Rowells mid minutes? Toss a coin.

    • Avatar

      Marcus

      July 9, 2020 at 4:58 pm

      Perfitt all the way. Swallow isn’t consistent enough

  11. Avatar

    Ben

    July 9, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    Any thoughts on Sam Simpson (geelong mid rookie $170k) named tonight?

    • Avatar

      Squid

      July 9, 2020 at 5:10 pm

      Know nothing of him and wouldn’t bank on him holding his spot (remember Constable?). Looks like we are having a rookstravaganza this weekend with the Geelong kid 2 pies 2 swans Rankine for suns and weightman for dogs being up to play per AFL website at least and expect more to come. Also we have Aarts who looked great, is likely to hold his spot for the time being one would think and as a mature age player is likely to be more consistent than the kids. So eventually getting to the point unless you absolutely need a bottom dollar rookie this week and can’t get to/already have Aarts hold off have a look and get onto the best one or even two next week.

      • Avatar

        Ben

        July 9, 2020 at 7:05 pm

        Cheers!

        • Avatar

          Squid

          July 10, 2020 at 2:53 am

          No wait! He’ll actually ton up not adjusted ton but genuine old school, you should definitely get him and captain him….. Seriously, who’d have thought? Still at least given how BEs work his big rise will be next game.

          • Avatar

            Ben

            July 12, 2020 at 11:04 pm

            Classic stitch up 😢

  12. Avatar

    llizardofoz

    July 9, 2020 at 7:14 pm

    L.Neale will eventually get hard tag…always has before.
    This year all the old rules don’t apply.
    BE’s mean less than before.Nobody gets to complete their team.
    Non scoring rookies aren’t the liability they used to be.
    Most important thing is to score big every week.
    Low scores [16 min quarters] mean all fantasy teams are bunched tightly together.

  13. Avatar

    CT

    July 9, 2020 at 7:22 pm

    Haynes or Ridley, legends?

    • Avatar

      Alex

      July 9, 2020 at 7:43 pm

      I went Ridley for the extra cash to upgrade next week. I think he is slightly more value, but Haynes will average 5-10 points more over the journey

      • Avatar

        CT

        July 10, 2020 at 10:06 am

        I have to agree. Cheers mate.

  14. Avatar

    ngauge

    July 9, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    Thoughts on Michael Hibberd? Looking at options and Rowell -> Aarts and Rivers to Hibberd + $108k is looking pretty good.

  15. Avatar

    Rob Canning

    July 9, 2020 at 7:56 pm

    Best balance solution for Houli and Rowell?

    Would love to go Neal, but that leaves me with not much quality down back. Best back premo option avail is Crisp/Maynard/Weller/Daniel, which makes Dusty/Yeo/Wingard/Wines the cieling in the Mids.

    Sacrifice points for cash generation?

    • Belly

      Belly

      July 9, 2020 at 9:05 pm

      Reverse traded Rowell to McCluggage at the last minute!

  16. Avatar

    M8

    July 10, 2020 at 9:04 am

    Do I get Hayden Young or Andrew McPherson to field? As I have Starcevich with the loopholed emergency score which failed

  17. Avatar

    Doug

    July 10, 2020 at 9:16 am

    1. T.Brown to Perryman or Tucker and play Hamill at D6..
    2. J.Ceglar to ANY player and play Hamill at D6..
    3. J.Brander to Haynes or Weller or Laird..

    Instinct is to dump the non playing players, but Brown & Brander aren’t losing $$ and Ceglar just hasn’t lifted to the level I thought he would, and moving him to Steele/Jelly/Zerrett/Macrae puts over 100k in the WarneChest for the inevitable Starcevich downgrade/upgrade next week..

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