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Dustin Martin – Deck of DT 2020

In the final card for 2020, Matt profiles two-time Norm.

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Name: Dustin Martin
Team: Richmond
Position: MID/FWD
Price: $721,000
Bye round: 13
2019 average: 97.1
2019 games played: 20
Predicted average: 98
Draft range: 2nd round

Click here for 2020 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

Because it’s Dustin Martin? I shouldn’t need to tell you how good he can be at fantasy, but I’ll quickly remind you. He averaged 104 in 2015, 107 in 2016, before averaging a whopping 113.6 in 2017. That’s right, you can select one of the most dominant players of the decade as a forward!

His last couple of seasons haven’t been at that same uber premium level he achieved in his brownlow year, but as a forward the risk in this selection dwindles. As a pure midfielder you couldn’t be blamed for passing on him. As a forward, you know he’s a great chance to be in your team come round 23.

The forward line this year is incredibly thin. Dusty sits as the third highest averaging forward behind Whitfield and Toby Greene, and Greene’s role is unlikely to replicate what we saw at the end of 2019. A lot of people are chasing value, but I think the extra $50-100k you fork out to get Dusty will save you a lot of hassle.

When Martin gets going, you simply have to have him in your team. Last year between rounds 9-15 he averaged 120, and during that period he was unstoppable. If you stretch that until the end of the season, Martin averaged 107 after round 8 and would clearly be the second best forward. He enjoyed five scores of 130+, explosiveness you’re unlikely to get from any other forward option aside from Whitfield.

Last year Richmond suffered an injury crisis, with Tom Lynch beginning the season underdone and Jack Riewoldt suffering a serious injury. This required Martin to sit forward for prolonged spells. He can still score well from the goal square, but he does most of his fantasy damage in the guts. If Riewoldt and Lynch stay fit and form a deadly two-pronged attack, Dusty should spend plenty of time in the guts. If he does, look out.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

His finals series is what concerns me the most. After enjoying 35 disposals and 13 clearances in a crucial win against the Eagles, Martin played most of next weeks game against Brisbane at full forward. He remained in that role in their qualifiying final win, kicking 6 goals. The most amazing part of that game? He only had 14 disposals and 69 fantasy points!

There was no injury concern, it was purely a matchup move, and concerningly it worked. Martin remained at full forward for lengthy spells in both the Preliminary and Grand finals and ended his last 4 games with 14 goals. While his contributions were great for Richmond, he had less than 22 disposals in each of those games and averaged just 81.

Where will Dusty play in 2020? Will he try every game? Dusty knows what it takes to win premierships and he knows when to expend his energy and when to conserve it. His lack of tackling numbers says as much. As good as Martin can be, if you started with him last year it was a disaster. I keep excluding his first 8 games. Well in those contests he averaged just 78 points with one ton! Even as a forward that would be a disasterous selection, especially if everyone can pick him up cheaply when he gets hot.

If Martin keeps rotating between the midfield and full forward depending on matchups he will be up and down enough to pick up later in the season as an underpriced premium…

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

After all it’s Dustin Martin. He could start the season averaging 110+ over the first month and make himself a must own player. He could also start the season averaging in the 80’s as he has done over the past two seasons. If he does, making him an upgrade target when he looks to be moving into the midfield makes more sense.

At this stage I’m thinking I will play the waiting game. Dusty will get hot at some point this year, and he’ll undoubtedly enter my team. However he could also bleed $100,000 before that time, and that’s a little too much risk for me. You can’t deny it though, the upside is huge and the forwards are lacking. Dusty will be a make or break call with his ownership sitting at a whopping 40%. Perhaps the safe call is to follow the crowd and start him.

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That’s it for the Deck of DT for 2020! Thanks for reading along. It was a cracking series once again and hopefully there was something to take out of every article for you. Big thank you to all of our awesome writers – in order of appearance:  Sparksy, Anthony, Tbetta, Dunny, Fry, Ben C, Ben L, Triggywiggy, Matt, Jelms and Ricontop! Bloody legends. Let’s get excited for the Marsh Series and the content that will continue through the pre-season and follow into the season proper.Roy, Calvin and Warnie.

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Stone cold says so

    February 15, 2020 at 8:25 am

    60k cheaper yes at his current price. No chance n9 chance in hell

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    llizardofoz

    February 15, 2020 at 9:12 am

    You have to have 6 forwards–why not have the good ones?

    • Avatar

      Stone cold says so

      February 15, 2020 at 10:51 am

      Cause you can get good 90 average players for less

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    Alan

    February 15, 2020 at 10:50 am

    5 scores of 130plus. Six scores below 70. This guys more yo-yo than Yeo. An average of 97.1 will be a top 6 forward any year but I think I would prefer a guy with a lower average but is consistent. Too hard to watch a 700k player scoring less than 70 in multiple games throughout a season.

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    Marcus

    February 15, 2020 at 11:26 am

    In Dusty’s last 4 games against the Blues he has scored under 96 once. But b4 that he did score poorly. I’m on him in Mids for DPP.

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    Euman

    February 15, 2020 at 12:39 pm

    I just love the look of his head in my team (see my avatar) I know you shouldn’t have emotion in fantasy but meh I’m not gunna win car anyway. So it’s dusty for me if he bombs meh it’s dusty but if he goes off and I don’t have him I cry. I also did analysis dusty v Devon and it’s a no brainer I will share later

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      Stone cold says so

      February 15, 2020 at 2:12 pm

      Don’t bother I’m not having either

  6. Euman

    Euman

    February 15, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    ok so Devon v dusty, first off no point looking at last year as Devon missed a lot of games most of the year. A lot are on Devon but i just cant see it. Dusty had funny year and seemed out of sorts for first half almost like playing with a niggle or just had the shits, seemed a little disinterested.

    So because we can really look too deep into last year lets look career.

    Dusty is about 28 years and 2228 days old this is his last 6 years
    GP Avg
    20 97.1
    21 92.9
    22 113.64
    21 106.71
    22 103.55
    21 97.62

    He has never gone below 92 in that 6 years and not played less than 20 matches. He had gone >100 in 3/6 years and above 97 in 5 out of 6 years.

    Looking a little at last year his first 10 games he went at 89.5 as said not sure why his next 10 (played 20) he went at 104.7 (excludes finals where he went at 85.6), im expecting him to continue his H&A form at 105 rough.

    Now Devon is same price lets look at his last 6 years

    Devon is about 26 years 226 days so little younger but lets look

    GP Avg
    7 79.4
    22 106.6
    16 81.63
    11 78.09
    20 85.9
    21 94.05

    Devon has gone > 100 one time. Further he has only gone > 90 2 times (includes the 100) and has actually gone below 80 twice and under 90 4 out of 6 years.

    Further he has played 20 games or more 3 times in 6 years. I know he changed teams more chances etc but its Dusty for me.

    in immortal 3 words of Dusty ‘YELLOW & BLACK”

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      David C

      February 18, 2020 at 7:19 am

      I’m not selecting Dusty because I believe he will start the season slowly and hence is an upgrade target. As for Devon, he is way overpriced in AF and I don’t understand why anyone is picking him. There seems to be a “follow the sheep” mentality on this website. One guy selects him and then he appears in everyone’s team.

  7. Avatar

    Stone cold says so

    February 15, 2020 at 8:55 pm

    You know you didn’t take any outside factors into account haha gl with dusty ruining your season.

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      the internet

      February 16, 2020 at 6:10 pm

      Really not sure how a bloke who’s won a Brownlow, has two Norm Smith medals, won two premierships, is highly durable, is an elite player, is currently fit & is selectable as a forward will ruin anyone’s season. Please don’t pick him. By the sound of it your own season is already in tatters

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