Breakout Tracker

The Breakout Tracker is an AFL Fantasy resource available to members of The Keeper League podcast.

For those who haven’t heard of the Breakout Tracker before, we calculate the career average for every player that has played under 100 games. We then work out what the combined career average of the top players was after the same number of games. We then compare those figures and give you the differential.

You can use this information to see how players compare to the best in the league. This will give you an idea of their breakout likelihood, or if they’re trending towards being one of the top AFL Fantasy performers in the competition.

To explain, let’s take Reilly O’Brien as an example. O’Brien has played a total of 20 games for a career average of 93.2. The top 50 players in the competition had a combined average of 71.9 after their first 20 games, giving him a +21.3 differential.

We have listed some of the players who are tracking ahead of the top 50 players on our website (you can view them here). But members also receive a breakdown of players compared to the best at their position.

These figures are probably more relevant for the draft versions of the game, as you are often looking to find sleepers late in drafts. Finding a player who is likely to move ahead of the top players in the competition and drafting them ahead of time can provide great value to your team. So use these numbers to try and spot these players.

Below I am going to highlight some players that are tracking ahead of the best in the competition.

Reilly O’Brien

As mentioned above, Reill O’Brien is tracking ahead of the top 50 players at the 20 game mark by 21.3 points.

When you compare his numbers to the top rucks in the competition, the data looks even more impressive.

The current top 5 rucks in the competition averaged 66 points after their first 22 games, whereas O’Brien is averaging 93.2. This gives him a +27.2 differential against the ruck position.

Without tooting our own horn too much, last year we identified that O’Brien’s early career numbers were streets ahead of other rucks at the same point in their careers, and advised tracking him closely. In 2019 he was finally given his chance to show what he can do and the rest is history.

With Sam Jacobs now at GWS, O’Brien is the sole ruck option at Adelaide. It will be interesting to see how he progresses in this role and whether he can develop further. He may be one to consider if rucks like Gawn and Grundy are out of reach.

Brayden Fiorini

Fiorini has put up some seriously impressive scores from his first 47 games.

His career average currently sits at 94 points per game. When you compare this to the top 20 midfielders after their first 47 games, he has a differential of +21.8.

When compared to the top 50 players in the competition, he has a +14.6 differential there.

In 2019, Fiorini averaged 99.7 points per game which is a little low when compared to some of the top midfielders. But it’s his style of play that is pleasing. He has a pig-like tendencies and shows some of the makings of a great fantasy footballer.

However, his ball use can sometimes be off at times, and he did find himself out of favour in the Gold Coast midfield at the end of last season.

With this in mind, he’s probably not reliable enough to be a sure-thing in AFL Fantasy Classic, but he could play a big part in your draft teams.

If he can work on the blemishes in his game and become an integral part of the Gold Coast midfield, he’s every chance of becoming a fantasy superstar.

James Worpel

Many would argue that James Worpel has already broken out and does not need to be analysed.

But after losing forward status this season, I thought it would be interesting to see how his numbers compare to the top midfielders in the competition.

After 33 games, Worpel has a career average of 86.6. This equates to a differential of +16.7 when compared to the top 20 midfielders after their first 33 games.

As a forward, he was a no-brainer last season. But this year as a mid-only, he probably won’t be selected in too many AFL Fantasy Classic teams (which is a fair call). Especially with Tom Mitchell returning from injury, it is unknown how he will affect his scoring.

That said, Worpel’s progression looks good on the Breakout Tracker and should prove to be a star fantasy performer in the future.

Xavier Duursma

Duursma is another player who loses DPP status in 2020, so people may be writing him off.

While he’s not going to feature in too many AFL Fantasy Classic teams, his numbers are looking good for people thinking about drafting him this season.

First, let’s take a look at his numbers compared to the top 50 players in the AFL. He played 20 games in his first season, averaging 78 points per game. The top 50 players had a combined average of 71.9 after their first 20 games, giving him a +6.1 point differential.

When compared with the top 20 midfielders in the AFL, he has a +12 point differential.

Again, Duursma’s draft value will slide this season after losing back status, but his numbers show that he’s still tracking nicely towards becoming a reliable fantasy scorer.

With his style of play as an outside midfielder, I don’t think he’ll ever hit the premium category of midfielders, but he will provide a lot of value to draft teams over the years.

Jordan Dawson

With the lack of forwards and the loss of some premium defenders, Jordan Dawson is going to be considered in a lot of teams this year.

Hopefully seeing his breakout tracker data fills coaches with confidence, so they feel comfortable picking him in their sides this season.

After 25 games, the top 50 fantasy performers in the AFL had a combined average of 73.5. Jordan Dawson’s current career average is 78.6, giving him a +5.1 differential. When compared to the top 10 forwards he’s running at a +10.6 differential (the best of any forward who has played under 100 games), and a +14.5 differential when compared to the top 10 defenders.

Dawson adds defender AND forward status this season, which we know is handy in all forms of AFL Fantasy as it provides increased flexibility throughout the season.

Given his price, scoring potential and scarcity in his position (especially the forwards), he should be strongly considered this season.

View the early career players tracking ahead of the top 50 in the competition here.