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Hugh Greenwood – Deck of DT 2020

New Home New Hugh?

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Name: Hugh Greenwood
Team: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Mid/Fwd
Price: $581,000
Bye round: 14
2019 average: 78.3
2019 games played: 14
Predicted average: 85
Draft range: Depends on size of league and players. Mid draft as your third or fourth forward.

Click here for 2020 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

Opportunity. It was the one thing that he wanted at Adelaide and it was the one thing that he wasn’t getting. He has left the Crows where he played just 12 games in 2017, then 22 in 2018 followed by 2019 where he had just 14 but he wasn’t injured, he was dropped by then coach Don Pyke. He played from round 5 through to 18 before being dropped only to reappear in round 23. In 2019 his average fell 4 points from his career best in 2018 where he played all 22 games.

While we are talking about opportunity at Adelaide we saw Hugh battling for ball in that midfield with Sloane, M Crouch, B Crouch, Gibbs and Laird/Smith on occasions as well. However, when we take a look at his new home he will be sharing that midfield with Fiorini, Swallow, Brodie, Rowell and Touk Miller. Not quite the same calibre of competition which should see Greenwood lift from last year’s average of 17 touches per game. He has a 50:50 kick to handball ratio across his career and if he can continue that and increase his possession numbers then look for him to boost that average well up over 80 this season. I have him pegged for an average of 85 but that could be on the conservative side. I haven’t gone higher because there is a lot of uncertainty with that Suns team for 2020.

On the whole though, the Suns haven’t brought him up to the Gold Coast to play in the NEAFL. If he is fit he will play all 22 games, no question of this. With him as a permanent midfielder playing all 22 games he is a certainty to lift his average higher than his best ever of 82 and hence provides some great value.

Image result for hugh greenwood gold coast

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Gold Coast Suns. Can we actually trust any of their players to score on a regular basis? Generally we are only interested in Gold Coast rookies. If we look at the Suns from last year we saw Witts with a 104, Fiorini with 99 and Touk on 90 average. Apart from Witts you couldn’t have any of these other guys in your side. Other GCS  players averaged 87 (Brodie, Swallow and MacPherson) and 85 from Miles. None of these are stand out players so there were really only three players that had an average you could consider. What this tells me is that there aren’t too many scores to go around and if Greenwood wants extra ball and extra points he will have to take them by boosting the overall Suns possession count and not by taking them from other players on his team.

The other thing that I look at is the Standard Deviation of a player. This measures the difference between their best and their worst in a season. The lower the number the better. Of those high scoring Suns there is no surprise that Witts had the best standard deviation at 16.68 but when we look at the midfielders they all had a best score over 115 but their lowest scores are in the 40’s apart from Fiorini who had a 63 and Swallow with 52. When we look at Greenwood he had a best of 115 and a low of 41, in fact 7 of his scores were under 80 and he had just two scores over 100. Both the wide range of the Suns players and the inconsistent scoring of Greenwood is concerning. I will give Greenwood a bit of a pass though as he was in a tougher side and wasn’t in his best position a lot of the time.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

Anytime a player changes club for more opportunity it is a bit of an unknown. Greenwood has shown us in the past that he can score so with him in that midfield as the main man he is well worth a gamble. He is very awkwardly priced unfortunately which will turn a lot of people off of him. He is someone you might want to consider if you desperately need to save some cash to allow you to get a premium elsewhere, but he is not likely to be a keeper and could be a big risk. Having said that no one considered the scoring that Jarryd Lyons produced last year either so he could be a big risk/reward player.

At this stage he isn’t in my salary cap plans at the moment but he could be a good pickup in a draft league as a F3 or F4, particularly if he spends the majority of his time in the midfield.

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13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Euman

    January 15, 2020 at 7:28 am

    He was in he was out. End reason I dropped him was Miles it just never happened. Greenwood may play mid all day all year but it’s the suns when they are getting flogged by tigers greenwood will just be standing in the middle watching the ball, I just can’t trust the suns

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      Dunny

      January 15, 2020 at 3:01 pm

      That’s part of my concern, just can’t trust Suns players. You can’t get points if your team doesn’t have the footy.

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        The Chosen Won

        January 16, 2020 at 11:23 am

        Sure you can it’s called tackling!

        Good Luck in 2020

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    David C

    January 15, 2020 at 10:12 am

    He doesn’t have the tank to play full time mid, he will spend time forward like he did at the crows.

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    Oskar

    January 15, 2020 at 10:53 am

    Not with a 10ft pole do you touch him in classic

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      Dunny

      January 15, 2020 at 3:02 pm

      I can understand that

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    Mad Snake

    January 15, 2020 at 12:22 pm

    I need help with a decision in a keeper league: I can keep only one of Greenwood, Luke Dunstan or David Mundy (pre-season wrecked by fractured fibula). Which way should I go?

    By the way, thanks for the great article, Dunny.

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      Dunny

      January 15, 2020 at 3:03 pm

      Wow, not a great deal of choices there.
      Certainly not Mundy in a keeper, wrong end of the age range. I can’t recall Dunstan’s position but if you are thin in the Fwd line you could go Greenwood.

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      Kel

      January 15, 2020 at 3:25 pm

      Depends on how many keeprs, how many mids are on ground and how many coaches but most leagues wouldn’t have an onfield spot for Dunstan. Just keep who you think the other coaches would draft first. The others could well be there at your first pick anyway. Mundy looks draftable by a coach who has a good team. League seasons are too short to drop a couple of games because you are relying on a 70avg benchwarmer for weeks on end. If you have quality cover he is worth keeping in a big league but most leagues he is probably gonna warm the bench himself when he is fit.

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    Tarn

    January 15, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    Not touching a single Sun unless their name is Matt Rowell

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      Dunny

      January 15, 2020 at 3:05 pm

      No Love for Rankine? He will certainly be in my calculations if he is good to go R1. The kid is a gun (and a nice bloke, I met him at our club a couple of years ago as he spent some time at my local club as a junior).
      Those two are the top of my Suns shopping list.

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        Sabsy

        January 15, 2020 at 8:59 pm

        Same argument with Rankine, especially as a forward, the ball just won’t get into their attacking half often enough. Maybe if they play him as a high half-forward, a REALLY high one who is basically in the midfield, he might get his hands on it. Can’t see that happening though after a disrupted first season, he simply won’t have the tank. I’ve placed him in the “break glass in case of emergency” category in the event that viable forward rookies are bad and things get DESPERATE.

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          Brandon

          January 16, 2020 at 9:43 am

          he’s also injury prone

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