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Deck of Dream Team

Andrew Brayshaw – Deck of DT 2020

Hype, hype, hype. Will he live up to it?

Name: Andrew Brayshaw
Team: Fremantle
Position: MID/FWD
Price: $516,000
Bye round: 13
2019 average: 70.5
2019 games played: 22
Predicted average: 80
Draft range: If he’s still on the board when you’re drafting your last bench spots, he’s worth a speculative pick.

Click here for 2020 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

If you’re picking Brayshaw this year you’d be doing so on the belief that this year is his 3rd year breakout year. In case you’re not familiar with that term, the idea is that most midfielders take until their 3rd year to really have an impact. This can be due to a number of reasons but they tend to culminate in a perfect breakout storm. It’s their 3rd preseason, they get added midfield time and responsibility, more time on ground, less managed etc etc.

Brayshaw is following this trend and ticking the boxes needed that others before him have ticked off.

First we look at his scoring trend.

2018 saw Brayshaw average 60.5 points per game. 2019 saw Brayshaw average 70.5 points per game. If we were to plot that on a graph his next logical plot line would land on 80.5 for this year.
Of course AFL is more than just numbers but it’s just a starting point.

Next we look at Brayshaw’s TOG (Time on Ground)

2018 saw Brayshaw play an average of 66% game time. 2019 saw Brayshaw lift to an average of 71% game time. Steadily increasing game time means together with another preseason of building his fitness base could mean Brayshaw will be kept on the ground for longer stints. Other Fremantle midfielders generally average between 80 – 90% TOG which is what you’d expect to see Brayshaw push to if he can cement his role.

History suggests that if given that role we should see Brayshaw increase his scoring by 10 – 15 points per game.

Other factors to consider is whether Brayshaw has shown that ability previously. In his draft year during the TAC cup Brayshaw played primarily as an inside midfielder. He averaged 100+ points per game without being an accumulator. He averaged roughly 24 touches per game but boosts his scores with 7 tackles per game and drifts forward to kick goals.

At AFL level we have seen glimpses of Brayshaw’s scoring potential when given added midfield minutes and time on ground. Last year for instance, Fyfe missed the game against against Sydney and Brayshaw reaped the role plus 80% TOG. Brayshaw scored 101 points from 20 touches and 8 tackles.

As a midfielder we possibly wouldn’t be considering Brayshaw this year but as a forward he could be worth a shot.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

If you google Andrew Brayshaw and AFL Fantasy you’re bound to find a bunch of articles from last year saying ‘2019 will be Brayshaw’s breakout year’. With Fremantle losing Lachie Neale, Brayshaw was seen as the logical replacement on their list for an inside mid. Unfortunately that didn’t completely come to pass. Brayshaw was given a little more time but was also still camped on the half forward flank for long stints. So our first concern is that Brayshaw isn’t given more midfield time and instead stays spending his majority of time on the forward flank.

The next concern is that Fremantle has a brand new coach talking up a whole new game plan. While we can hope that a more attacking game style means Brayshaw gets more ball if he is trapped forward, the worry is in the unknown. We don’t know what Justin Longmuir has planned for Fremantle. Where does he rank Brayshaw in their midfield pecking order? Longmuir has also repeatedly talked up the importance of skills in Fremantle’s future. While Brayshaw isn’t a terrible decision maker, his disposal efficiency by foot hovers around 65% where as his possible competition in other developing midfielders like Cerra and even Bewley are both consistency over 75% by foot.

Midpricer’s are always risky and you’d want to be sure. At $516k there are plenty of Forward options around that mark with similar upside you may want to consider. Bailey Smith for instance is hovering in the forward line at about that price along with Brayshaw’s new team mate Acres. At that price point you’d really only have room for one in your forward line and as mentioned, there’s a lot more unknown with Brayshaw than with others.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

If given that pure inside midfield role, I have no doubt Brayshaw is capable of pushing a 100 average. He’d be a no brainer if that were the case but unfortunately there are too many question marks around him. One thing to consider however is the possibility of starting with Brayshaw as Mundy is set to miss the first 6 rounds. Watch Fremantle closely during that period, if Brayshaw has that role, I’d think about locking him in, riding the price rise and then bailing when Mundy comes back. That strategy could also be worth considering in draft leagues. Draft him late or even pick him up off the waiver wire then trade him out before Mundy comes back if his average is looking healthy.

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Joining the DT Talk writing team in 2013, Anthony is a West Coast boy (man, we have a lot of Eagles lovers here) and he will bring us plenty of great content again this year. @anthonydsmith86.

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Euman

    January 13, 2020 at 7:51 am

    Currently in my team but will wait for pre season

  2. Avatar

    Sangha

    January 13, 2020 at 8:37 am

    He’s just a wait and see. Pure midfield role=lock.
    Anything else- not going there.

  3. Avatar

    Ic6

    January 13, 2020 at 10:00 am

    Pass!!!!

  4. Avatar

    Bill

    January 13, 2020 at 10:35 am

    Lock for me. He’ll turn in to a ball magnet

  5. Avatar

    Euman

    January 13, 2020 at 1:15 pm

    Brayshaw averaged 69.5 for 2019 but if you look closer – first half year 11 games were at 62.4 and his second half 11 games post bye were at 76 .6. His last 5 round average was at 80.4 and his 6 round was at 83.8. Rounds 17 & 18 were his only tons at 101 and 106 and is what i think is near the mark in 2020, given the increase over each years and particular the second half of 2019 with possibility of some mid time i see no reason why 90 is not realistic. Wait n see but in pre season and Longmire may have a new plan, but word on street is he likes the lad. Remembering this kid is not even 21, hes like 20 years and 67 days old, this has breakout all over it and priced at 69 is low or no risk (expect a trade). If hes gets 80 then i bear with it for 6 weeks and sell him for 600k

    • Avatar

      Kingzy

      January 13, 2020 at 5:13 pm

      Dont forget Mundy is out injured, he should get more responsibility.

  6. Avatar

    Euman

    January 13, 2020 at 1:32 pm

    Other guys around this price

    Now Bailey Smith is a little younger and went at 69.1 in his first year nice work, splitting his year though we see 68.2 and 70 so no major leap there, and no real changes at dogs so cant see a massive increase for mine in 2020.

    Acres is interesting and spends on his role really. Hes 24 years old in his 7th year at a new team. Best average 80.50 in 2018 and if plays on the wing there is no reason he cannot recapture this so priced at 67.50 seems safe bet. Personally i cant see him going much over this where as i am hoping Brayshaw can (watch this happen in reverse with Acres playing full time mid and going off).

    I definitely think Mundy down helps Brayshaws case for mid time minutes for first month at least and if can play well will secure a spot.

    Again it comes down to the horse and he has let us down before.

    The other name thrown around is bailey banfield. I just cant get a read on him hes 22 and going into 3rd year priced at 58 guy had limited games in 2019 (dont know why maybe injured), in 2018 he played 20 games at 64, depending on role i expect similar maybe with 5-10 points improve so 75 maybe at best but i am jsut speculating as we all are, like share trading if we knew the result we would all be millionaires.

  7. Avatar

    Trevor

    January 13, 2020 at 9:46 pm

    Adam Cerra will spend more time in the midfield than brayshaw. I’m looking at him as my D4

  8. Avatar

    Euman

    January 14, 2020 at 10:30 am

    Ok is he available as a forward though?

  9. Avatar

    Euman

    January 14, 2020 at 10:49 am

    Just had a look, i considered both these guys last year for a breakout but did not select them Cerra was my favourite but. Research below on their 2019 year, Cerra is DEF only 2020 is interesting and is 451k v 516k (rough figures from memory)

    Games AVG first half Second half Last 5
    (DEF) Cerra 20 60.75 60.00 61.67 72.80
    (FWD/MID) Brayshaw 22 69.55 62.45 76.64 80.40

    Based on this and depending on how pre season plays out im sticking with Brayshaw, there are no other forwards who inspire me to be honest.

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