Congratulations if you’ve still made it this far in the season and are interested in your AFL Fantasy team. The bye rounds are annually a testing time for everyone and while I still managed to move up a few thousand spots, passing on both Hannebery and Macrae last weekend hurt.
We have a few downgrade targets to consider now that we are back to just a pair of trades, with the buzz around a few debutants starting to heat up. With under 20 trades left for the season, it’s time to start thinking about the finished product and getting the upgrades that will be around for the rest of 2019. Having the right cash cows can make that job a lot easier.
Feel free to comment your questions below, but the general rule of thumb is no mention for a player = not in the frame to play anytime soon.
Griffin Logue, Dockers ($303K, 74, BE -10)
Don’t be surprised if a lot of coaches choose to field Griffin Logue in their defensive unit for a few weeks. A handy 74 on the weekend has a lot of us expecting great things from Logue moving forward. While I still think it’s wise to temper expectations, Griffin isn’t going to start declining in value any time soon. Get in while you can.
Patrick Naish, Tigers ($245K, BYE, BE -13)
If Naish is named on Thursday night, then I advise 73.9% of the competition to act quickly. Naish has put two great AFL games together and Brandon Ellis back in the team didn’t slow him down pre-bye either. The real test will be to see if he survives the recall of Cotchin, Lambert and/or Edwards, but like I said, if he holds, he’ll be my favourite DEF target this week.
Xavier Duursma, Power ($545K, 70, BE 79)
Before a 70 against Geelong, Duursma had pieced together some consistently appealing fantasy numbers. Scores regularly in the 80’s and 90’s were a pleasant sign for a lot of the comp, but there are still better options out there. It’s nearly time to pull the trigger, but Duurs deserves another life (or two) before you settle on right the upgrade target.
Sydney Stack, Tigers ($481K, BYE, BE 65)
Don’t stress too much if you’ve already moved on from Sydney Stack, with the first-year Tiger still facing an uphill climb to surpass (and hopefully stay) north of $500K. Stack has made a bad habit of going bad-good-bad-good when it comes to points production and he’ll look to buck that trend against the Saints. If he and Houli can get on the end of some cheap +6’s, it could be a day out for the Richmond defenders.
Callum Wilkie, Saints ($398K, 70, BE 46)
Wilkie helped to serves his purpose over the bye rounds, posting a pair of helpful 70’s. However, it could be the end of the road for the popular defender, even though he’ll likely rise at least a little in price against Richmond. Wilkie’s previous track record has seen him post just two other 70’s in 11 games, so if you need to flick a player out for a cheaper option, Wilkie’s hard to pass up.
Corey Ellis, Suns ($278K, BYE, BE 21)
I’m not going to lie to you, I haven’t seen Corey Ellis in action yet this season. He is definitely a player worth monitoring, especially if he can string regular touches between defensive 50 and the midfield for the Suns. He already costs a decent amount, but I still think it’s wise to see how Ellis looks this weekend if/when he lines up for Gold Coast.
Joel Garner, Power ($210K, 39, BE 9)
Traded in by over 6,000 coaches including yours truly could see Joel Garner burn some people twice in one season. We thought he could have held his spot earlier in the year after a 60, but just 39 points could instantly seal Garner’s fate as a SANFL regular. Finger crossed my gut is wrong.
Jake Stein, Giants ($189K, 59, BE 5)
Stein doesn’t seem to have a lot of players breathing down his neck for selection at the moment. He might not offer great fantasy scoring, but Stein’s ability to tackle could see him make another $100k. I’d give him one more week to make sure the tackling numbers were no fluke.
Marty Hore, Demons ($460K, 49, BE 83)
Not since the first game of the season has Marty Hore scored under 60 and he picked a bad time for owners to throw up just 49 points. Already going down in price after this performance, Hore is no certainty to turn things around and hit his breakeven, making him great trade bait in my eyes. If you can reach an elite defender for Marty, pull the trigger.
Jordan Clark, Cats ($404K, 55, BE 64)
We could very well see Jordan Clark rested from senior action this weekend after a few quiet games in a row for Geelong. He’s had his moments during his rookie season, but regardless of which line you’re playing him on, Clark’s got to go. If you find yourself without one of the defender trade targets mentioned above, you know what to do.
Noah Answerth, Lions ($303K, 32, BE 47)
A five-round average under 45 speaks for itself. Answerth could be a nice emergency for the near 20% of teams who own him, but I wouldn’t be stunned if he loses his spot in the next few weeks. A downgrade to Patrick Naish won’t net you a lot of money, but it is a move you should consider if you don’t already own him.
On The Outside Looking In
Isaac Cumming, Giants ($262K) – Isn’t listed on the Giants’ injury sheet, but he’ll most likely stay out.
Josh Rotham (Eagles, $246K) – 23 disposals and a 91 could have me eating my own words if Rotham plays AFL again this season.
Isaac Quaynor (Magpies, $246K) – Jeremy Howe going down means we could finally see Quaynor debut, fresh off a 20 touch (81 point) outing last weekend.
Mitch Hinge (Lions, $209K) – Two goals and a 73 in the NEAFL could keep his slim chances of a recall alive.
Callum Burgess (Suns, $193K) – Club wide bye at the Suns means Burgess will presumably miss again.
Hugh Goddard (Blues, $170K) – No VFL actin for Carlton, but keep your fingers crossed for Goddard. He could be very helpful in the last two months.
Dylan Clarke, Bombers ($373K, 68, BE 18)
This will be the last week Dylan Clarke can be found in the get ’em category. In fact, for the 80%+ of coaches without the young Don in their current teams, it’s probably wise to spend the money elsewhere. However, Clarke has scored at a solid clip thus far and should he stay in the best 22, he’s only going to keep making you money.
Oskar Baker, Demons ($355K, MID, 69, BE 10)
Plenty of coaches are going to use Baker at M8 out of the byes, with the young Demon proving he can find his way to a few handy point totals. With the exception of his 31 point debut in WA, Baker has hardly put a foot wrong in the last month, already rising $140K and earning his spot in some starting midfield rotations.
Brett Bewley, Dockers ($238K, 62, BE -1)
A few injuries to the Fremantle side should see Brett Bewley hang around for at least the next few weeks. There may be cheaper options out there, but Bewley played 80% of the Freo/Demons game, the highest TOG in his career to date. Again, injuries were a factor, but for Bewley to get his way to a solid score with 16 touches should only boost his job security. We hope.
Nick Hind, Saints ($211K, 76, BE -7)
While Nick Hind had a good outing on the weekend I would like to throw a challenge flag. Playing more of a half forward role compared to seeing midfield minutes, Hind’s ceiling is definitely in question, with three goals required to get the Saints youngster to 76. I can’t blame you for chasing him while he’s cheap, but I’d love to see him chew up some centre bounces and/or wing-time.
Sam Walsh, Blues ($600K, BYE, BE 72)
There is still over 47% of teams rocking with Sam Walsh, which isn’t a bad move by any means. A lot of coaches in the upper tier will be rocking without any rookies in their midfield, but as we’ve pointed out multiple times already this year, Walsh isn’t like other rookies. He has averaged 111.5 since Brendon Bolton was fired as well, just saying.
Jay Lockhart, Demons ($405K, 92, BE 47)
Jay Lockhart is a tough fantasy player to trust. In eight matches this season he has three scores over 90 and four under 45, making it tough to pick the right time to move on from the versatile Dee. In a perfect world, he’d go this week, but if it suits, you could maybe wait a little longer.
Bailey Smith, Bulldogs ($451K, 34, BE 101)
It might be wise to jump from a sinking ship in Bailey Smith this week if you’re an owner. Three consecutive scores under 60 have seen the small percentage of coaches who own Smith up in arms and chasing alternatives. For what it’s worth it only costs you $4K to get to Daniel Hannebery…
Michael Gibbons, Blues ($408K, BYE, BE 60)
I advised coaches to trade Gibbons out last week and I’m still firmly in that camp. If he’s stuck on your FWD bench I can understand why you’d want to hold off without any decent downgrade picks. If one presents themselves though, fire away.
Tom Atkins, Cats ($369K, 62, BE 44)
The time has come Tom Atkins. Given the potential choice we have in the middle for downgrade options, it’s time to off-load the fattened Geelong hard nut. He could throw a few more 60’s/70’s up, but I think it’s wise to pocket the money before he dips in value again.
On The Outside Looking In
Charlie Constable (Cats, $500K) – Following 122 fantasy points. 33 disposals and 16 marks on the weekend, you best believe Charlie Constable is still fantasy relevant!
Willem Drew (Power, $405K) – Drew could see a recall this week after four games in Port Magpie colours (averaging 111).
James Rowbottom (Swans, $258K) – His ridiculous NEAFL numbers continued (127 points, three goals, 31 touches) last weekend. Should get back before year’s end.
Jackson Hately (Giants, $314K) – The moment nearly 4,000 coaches have been waiting for is nearly here. Does Hately come in for de Boer?
Harley Bennell (Dockers, $236K) – Tragically, Bennell suffered yet another calf setback in the WAFL and has no timetable for his return. You have to feel for the bloke.
Rhylee West (Bulldogs, $220K) – One of the Dogs’ better players in the VFL with 22 disposals (75 points). Very outside chance.
Will Snelling (Bombers, $207K) – You better believe that after 131 points Will Snelling is a chance to debut. If he’s named, invest.
Nick Shipley (Giants, $170K) – NEAFL bye last week and I’d be surprised if he plays senior footy in 2019.
Bit of talk about Will Snelling (MID, $207k) making his Essendon debut on Thursday night.
He scored 131 (28d, 5m, 8t, 3g) on Sunday in the VFL. In his other two VFL games since joining the Dons, he scored 97 and 99. Snelling was averaging 128 in the SANFL.#AFLFantasy pic.twitter.com/qE9tAXVstF
— Adam 'Warnie' Child (@WarnieDT) June 25, 2019
Darcy Fort, Cats ($253K, 46, BE 15)
A timely hurt hamstring to Esava Ratugolea meant that Darcy Fort had his number called again. While Fort probably didn’t do enough to save his space in the Cats’ team, the extra game under his belt saw him make another $25K. Some may choose to downgrade him for a quick cash grab, but Fort could still play a few more AFL games this season. My advice would be to turn a certain Tiger in to him.
Reilly O’Brien, Crows ($603K, BYE, BE 49)
A lot of coaches are still rocking with ROB in their ruck department, despite his bye coming and going. With a low breakeven and the chance of Sam Jacobs returning losing steam with every week that passes, O’Brien could still have room to grow and be a viable starter. I still think there are only two ruckmen who should be in everyone’s side (Grundy and Gawn) and if O’Brien’s on your field, I’d recommend an upgrade. If he’s on your pine, feel free to cash in and spend wisely.
N/A – No relevant rookie/cash cow RUC’s land in the “Watch ‘Em” category this week.
Noah Balta, Tigers ($374K, BYE, BE 80)
If you can find Noah Balta on your ruck bench I think now is a wise time to trade him away. You can net enough to remove another rookie from your field by flicking out Balta, who will see the bulk of his ruck opportunities disappear when Soldo comes back, which should be as soon as this week.
On The Outside Looking In
Archie Smith (Lions, $242K) – 17 touches and 30 hitouts (94 points) won’t see Smith return to the senior side anytime soon.
Peter Ladhams (Power, $185K) – Could take Dougal Howard’s place this week, but if he does, looms as a one-hit wonder.
Darcy Cameron (Swans, $170K) – Reports surfacing that Cameron wants to move to a club with more opportunity makes total sense. Let the kid play!
James Rose, Swans ($262K, 76, BE 4)
Game 2 went much more according to plan for Rose as he recorded 17 touches against the Hawks. I haven’t been paying him the dues he deserves lately, with a few thousand coaches stoked they took a chance on him last week. I’d rather wait and see another cheaper FWD named, but Rose is the best option if you really need a target.
Jarrod Cameron, Eagles ($217K, 69, BE 5)
Cameron sits in this category for now, but don’t be surprised if Willie Rioli takes his place in Round 15. Cameron’s ferocious tackling pressure could help him stay in the team, with the debutant chalking up seven hugs against Essendon. Kicking two goals in your first AFL game and getting dropped would be awfully tough, but hopefully, if it does happen, we’ll still see Cameron again before the end of the year.
Liam Baker, Tigers ($511K, BYE, BE 78)
St Kilda on the weekend could lead to a good score for Baker, but his time is coming to an end. By all means, if you have no other problems, use him as a stepping stone to an elite payer up front, but if not, Baker can still hover around. If you can call yourself a Boak/Dangerfield/Kelly/Dunkley owner then wait for another clear candidate *cough Dusty cough* to emerge.
Connor Rozee, Power ($466K, 81, BE 75)
A lot of these rookies in the $400K-$450K price bracket who have plateaued in value can be moved on with confidence, however, Rozee still gives me hope. If he’s your final FWD/DWF rookie then it’s not insane to trust him on the field for another few outings. There are highs and lows with Rozee, but playing at Adelaide Oval for the next three straight games should help post a few more 80’s.
Will Setterfield, Blues ($416K, BYE, BE 40)
If you are in a position where you have to field Will Setterfield in your team, firstly, I’m sorry. Secondly, it’s not utterly crazy to keep him with a low breakeven and two straight scores over 75 before the byes. I wouldn’t be expecting too many fruitful outings, but he could be worth a look against Freo. Should he show signs of fantasy failure, abort before he loses his value.
Matthew Parker, Saints ($355K, 71, BE 34)
With his price ticking upwards you can hold on to Parker if he’s only occupying a bench position. I don’t have faith around his long term prospects, but you can address the problem when another downgrade presents themselves. Right?
Dylan Moore, Hawks ($339K, 51, BE 38)
Moore continues to find a way to string 50’s and 60’s together for the coaches that have stuck with him. Back in the senior side now means he can still earn a few bucks on your bench before a better option presents itself. Hopefully, a tough task against the Eagles doesn’t cost him his place in the side.
Mabior Chol, Tigers ($187K, BYE, BE 6)
Unfortunately for a handful of teams, I expect Mabior Chol to return to the reserves this weekend. Ivan Soldo seems like the man who’ll take his place and honestly, it might be the first and last we see of Chol this year.
Gryan Miers, Cats ($434K, 30, BE 92)
Gryan was one of, if not my favourite player to watch in the first half of the season, so seeing him like this stings. His lowest score of the year was a clear indication that a move off of Miers is the way to go, especially before he loses too much value. Even if he’s on your bench, trading out Geelong’s goalsneak, up or down, will be a popular play this round.
Zak Butters, Power ($391K, 49, BE 65)
Let me not mince words here, Zak Butters has to go. A dud score on the weekend could see Butters flicked straight out of Port’s team and if he’s still in yours I’d consider a similar move. There are plenty of midfield downgrades to pick from and increase your savings.
Nick Larkey, Kangaroos ($328K, BYE, BE 53)
I’d be surprised if Larkey didn’t depart a lot of teams either last week or this one, with the Roos key serving his purpose. You don’t have to move him along if you have more pressing needs, but a downgrade to the Swans FWD in James Rose could make you $66K.
Jack Petruccelle, Eagles ($316K, 53, BE 56)
For the coaches out there who still have Petruccelle hanging around, it’s time to send him packing. He can’t be trusted to even surpass 50 and even if you missed a chance to flip him at his dearest, it’s still not too late to make some mullah. If I was Adam Simpson I’d rather have Cameron playing over Petruccelle, so maybe that can come to fruition and help make one trade easier for Petra owners.
On The Outside Looking In
Shai Bolton (Tigers, $372K) – Could retake Dylan Butler’s place, or even Jack Higgins if Dimma so chooses.
Mitch Lewis (Hawks, $308K) – Lewis managed a few hitouts with his 10 disposals last weekend, but a 37 means he’ll stay put.
Josh Corbett (Suns, $298K) – Not really in the picture at the moment. If you get the chance to trade Corbett out, do it.
Izak Rankine (Suns, $266K) – Good news for Gold Coast fans, Izak Rankine is expected to play in the NEAFL this week! I’ll keep you posted.
Brayden Ham (Bombers, $207K) – More impressive games like the 26 touches and 2.2 from the weekend and Ham will be back in selection frame in no time.
Robbie Young (Saints, $203K) – Kicked a goal amongst his 48 points, but my guess is another week with Sandringham. At least.
Ben Cavarra (Bulldogs, $182K) – Equal team-high 75 fantasy points and 15 touches. It’s looking more like a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ now for Cavarra.
Ryan Gardner (Bulldogs, $180K) – Can hold his head high after a decent reserves game.
Jackson Ross (Hawks, $170K) – Didn’t improve his chances of debuting with just 1.1 and a 47.
Cash Cow King – Round 14
Last week was a relatively low scoring weekend from rookies, setting the bar rather low. We’ll take any score we can get during the bye rounds, but the newfound point production from Griffin Logue should keep a lot of coaches afloat. Kudos Logue.
Taking all fantasy aspects into consideration, here are my top 3 rookie/cash cows you should own/make a move for in each position.
* = if named