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AFL Trade Period 2018 and Fantasy

Warnie’s Fantasy spin on every movement of the trade period.

The AFL Trade Period is here and Warnie will take a look at every move from free agents to team-to-team trades with his AFL Fantasy glasses on. Discuss your thoughts in the comments!

Projected prices are based on an approximate magic number of 7150 (an approximation based on last season’s number) which also assumes that the salary cap will be around $12,800,000, close to the official AFL salary cap for 2019 (we don’t have official confirmation at time of writing). Discounts have been applied following last year’s formula where appropriate.

LATEST UPDATE: Monday October 15, 2:55pm.

SAM LLOYD TO WESTERN BULLDOGS

TRADE #15 – Monday October 15, 2:22pm

2018 AVERAGE: 68.1 (7 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $443,000 (9% discount)

FANTASY VERDICT: Slightly underpriced with his small discount, but it’s taking him to be priced at around 61 when he’s pretty much averaged 67.5 in his last three seasons. Definitely will have more opportunity to build on the 8 and 7 games he played in the last two seasons (he played 22 games in 2016 – his third season) to play that forward role which was vacated by Dahlhaus. Lloyd’s only Fantasy ton (107) came in his first ever game, 107 versus Collingwood thanks to 22 disposals and three goals. He scored 95 in round eight against North this year, but prior to that, has failed to score more than 88 in his 57 game career. PASS.

WILL SETTERFIELD TO CARLTON

TRADE #14 – Friday October 12, 2:48pm

2018 AVERAGE: DNP
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $248,000 (30% discount on 2017’s 49.5)

FANTASY VERDICT: We were all keen on Setterfield this time last year and were ready to see how he went in the JLT Series as he was set to be part of GWS’ 22 for round one. An ACL injury in a practice match versus the Swans on the eve of the pre-season games ended his hopes of playing in 2018. He’s recovered well and will commence full training early in the new year and is on track to play in round one. At the Blues, he’s got to be a sure thing to be suiting up in his new colours in March. Why are we keen? He averaged 110 from 7 games in the NEAFL in 2017 and was named as a MID/FWD for this year. LOCK AND LOAD.

BRAYDEN PREUSS TO MELBOURNE

TRADE #13 – Friday October 12, 10:04am

2018 AVERAGE: DNP
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $336,000 (30% discount on 2017’s 67.2)

FANTASY VERDICT: What is he thinking? Surely he waits it out at the Roos until Goldy departs… a year? Maybe two? Anyway, he must have been sold more than being Max Gawn’s understudy at Melbourne and playing for Casey each week which is the worrying thing. Is Max no longer a solo ruckman? This will be a huge thing to watch over the pre-season. Firstly, Gawn can’t be a starter in Classic… and secondly, what happens to his Draft value – prior to this he was looking at being a first round pick with Grundy. Anyway, back to Preuss. The 23-year-old had some nice returns when he broke through for his first eight games of his career last year. A pair of 105’s in game 2 and 3 saw us make a few dollars on our bench with some coaches selling the farm making him a starter. His second game was after being dropped – and coming in as a late replacement for Goldy. Not a bad score coming in to replace the big fella. In the VFL, Preuss has averaged 110 and 103 in the last two seasons. OH NO… FOR MAX THAT IS.

DOM TYSON TO NORTH MELBOURNE

TRADE #13 – Friday October 12, 10:04am

2018 AVERAGE: 76.5 (14 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $547,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Tyson will be priced more than 15 points cheaper than his best Fantasy season; 2016’s 92.9 from 21 games. That wasn’t his only year he’s hit the 90 mark, back in his third season, Tyson played all 22 games for an average of 90 and almost got there in 2017 with an average of 89.6. Now, the issue is that these aren’t premium numbers – even at his best. There’s upside, but is it enough? A 15 point jump is nice for a stepping stone but there will be other options – even from this trade period like Hanners, Miles – that will be cheaper for potentially the same, if not better, average. This year he failed to score a ton even in a high possession Dees line up. There will be increased opportunity at North Melbourne but they have a lot of change coming so it will be hard to judge. If he hits 90+, though, Tyson will be Draft relevant but I wouldn’t be taking him at that average point with the unknown about the Roos’ bolstered midfield. UNLIKELY TO BE AN OPTION AS A MID.

DEAN KENT TO ST KILDA

TRADE #12 – Friday October 12, 9:57am

2018 AVERAGE: 57.6 (5 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $424,000 (15% discount on 2017’s 69.8)

FANTASY VERDICT: A couple of injuries limited the forward’s games this year, playing five in the AFL and five in the VFL. Even with a discount, he is priced higher than this year’s return due to taking the greater of his last two season’s averages to apply the discount to. With this being said, Kent is priced 10 points below what he was able to achieve the two seasons prior – just a touch under a 70 average. While I don’t see him being an option, even with greater opportunity, Kent’s first two games this year produced scores of 86 and 93 thanks to three goals in each of them before a thigh injury before half time on 30 in his third game. On his return to the seniors in round 22, he scored 77 before 2 in the final round before an early game AC injury. Kent’s VFL averages have been positive, despite limited games/data. In 2014 he averaged 97 and 2017 he averaged 95. UNDERPRICED, BUT A PASS.

DAN HANNEBERY TO ST KILDA

TRADE #11 – Friday October 12, 9:01am

2018 AVERAGE: 59.8 (14 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $429,000

FANTASY VERDICT: When I floated Hannebery as a 2019 option a few weeks ago, some were on board while others were 100% steering clear. Hanners had his worst season since his 7 game, 46 point average in his rookie year (2009). In recent years, he’s gone at 97, 111, 108 and 94 to show that his best is well an truly better than the sub-60 average he had this year and will be priced at. At worst, he probably goes at 90 with a full pre-season under his belt considering he’ll only just turn 28 as the season starts. For the Saints to be paying him $800K a year for the next four seasons either means they’re desperate, or they have faith that the injuries from the last two years are behind him. I’m hoping it’s the latter although when you look at his top two scores of 2018 being 82 and 92, then I can see why people are keen to steer clear. BARGAIN IF FIT.

ALEX FASOLO TO CARLTON

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Wednesday October 10, 6:23pm

2018 AVERAGE: 12 (1 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $362,000 (27% discount on 2017’s 69.4)

FANTASY VERDICT: Don’t get too excited about bloody cheap Faz at the Blues. While he gets the 27% discount for only playing one game, the second quarter injury that saw him with two disposals and just 12 points to his name isn’t going to make him basement priced, he will have the discount applied to 2017’s average. Yes, he’s still cheaper – priced at 50.6 – but in his eight seasons, he has only twice averaged over 70… and they were only just (72.5 in 2012 and 71.5 in 2015). There’s 20 points of upside, but that is definitely a best case scenario – and not enough for Classic as you’d be better off with a rookie… and in Draft, there would be players with much less risk to take ahead of him at his draft point. PASS.

TOM HICKEY TO WEST COAST EAGLES

TRADE #9 – Wednesday October 10, 12:04pm

2018 AVERAGE: 75.3 (13 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $538,000

FANTASY VERDICT: With Lycett off the the Power and NicNat’s ACL keeping him out for most of next season, Hickey could be the go-to man for the Eagles, potentially with Vardy for the start of the season as Lycett and Vardy played together for the back-half. Hickey has averaged in the 70s in four of his last five seasons averaging mid-20s hitouts and is likely to drop those sort of numbers again as the solo ruck, and then a likely decline when NicNat is back. A potential bench option in Draft – even if you waited on your ruck and could stream (ie. play horses for courses) with him and whoever else you grab. UNLIKELY TO BE A SERIOUS OPTION.

RYAN CLARKE TO SYDNEY SWANS

TRADE #8 – Wednesday October 10, 11:32am

2018 AVERAGE: 70.3 (19 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $503,000

FANTASY VERDICT: I was big on Ryan Clarke for this season. It was mostly for Draft, I was expecting him to average over 80 – and subsequently got burned with the 70 average, just a couple of points better than 2017. My keenness was off the back of his end to to the 2017 season where he averaged 90 in this half-back role. Clarke played that this year but didn’t produce those same numbers. Depending on how he is used – the Freako said he should be in the guts for the Swans – Clarke is someone who should be draftable and should improve his average. Should. HMMM… SURELY A WATCH.

GARY ROHAN TO GEELONG

TRADE #7 – Wednesday October 10, 11:31am

2018 AVERAGE: 43.4 (11 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $310,000

FANTASY VERDICT: I wont wast too much time here but Gary Rohan would have to be basement priced to consider. While his average of 43.4 is his lowest since an injury affected 3 game run in 2013, his best return of 60.7 (last year) doesn’t actually make him that underpriced. NOT FOR ME.

JARED POLEC TO NORTH MELBOURNE

TRADE #6 – Wednesday October 10, 10:47am

2018 AVERAGE: 92.2 (22 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $659,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Three seasons in the 70s, then 83 building up to his PB of 92 this year, Polec is trending in the right direction but isn’t dumping the numbers that make us any way excited about his Fantasy future. That average of 92 only included six tons, including 132 and 156 which has definitely boosted his overall average. At present, he’s a mid-80s guy at best, however he has been playing for Port Adelaide who aren’t exactly a Fantasy friendly team. You can’t knock his consistency, his season low of 68 was one of only six scores under 80. PASS.

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JASPER PITTARD TO NORTH MELBOURNE

TRADE #6 – Wednesday October 10, 10:47am

2018 AVERAGE: 70.9 (11 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $507,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Pittard had a frustrating season at the Power playing just 11 games. His best Fantasy return was in 2016 where he played 22 games at an average of 82.2 which puts him in the mix as a starting defender in Draft. North Melbourne will have a bit of movement this off-season, so we need to wait an see. Polec’s kick to handball ratio is one of the best in the league and if he can get his hands on the pill via a few more marks, then he could be relevant. Probably a pass in Classic unless you’re really keen on a mid-pricer down back, but keep an eye on in Draft as someone you could get for unders with 10-15 points of upside now that he’s away from the Fantasy point killers Port Adelaide. PRE-SEASON WATCHLIST.

MITCH MCGOVERN TO CARLTON

TRADE #5 – Wednesday October 10, 10:00am

2018 AVERAGE: 71 (12 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $508,000

FANTASY VERDICT: McGovern is a great pick up by the Blues. The former Crow has played three seasons at senior level with his third producing his best Fantasy average. While he dropped some nice scores of 93, 87, 114 and 91 throughout the season, they were weighed down by a handful of 40s and 50s. Will have some jobs to do and for Classic, I think he’s going to drop similar numbers at his new club. PASS ON KPPS.

SHANE McADAM TO ADELAIDE

TRADE #5 – Wednesday October 10, 10:00am

2018 AVERAGE: N/A
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $180,000 (possible basement price)

FANTASY VERDICT: The 181-cm medium forward kicked 31 goals for Sturt this year. He remains in SA (originally he’s from Hall Creek in northern WA) and could be used by the Crows next year. The 23-year-old’s five most recent scores in his first season in the SANFL were: 57, 51, 91, 56, 70.  McAdam needs to be monitored during the pre-season as a 23-year-old mature aged player. WATCHLIST.

SCOTT LYCETT TO PORT ADELAIDE

RESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Tuesday October 9, 10:10am

2018 AVERAGE: 77 (22 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $551,000

FANTASY VERDICT: This season was the first that Lycett played 22 games. Prior to that, his best return was 20 games at a career high average of 80.1. Obviously he has been sharing ruck duties at West Coast and will be doing the same at the Power. Paddy Ryder’s value drops and you couldn’t say Lycett’s increases with this move. With only eight Fantasy tons in his 71 games, it’s a big pass for me. ONLY IF YOU’RE PLAYING TWO RUCK DRAFT LEAGUES.

TOM LYNCH TO RICHMOND

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Monday October 8, 3:00pm

2018 AVERAGE: 67.1 (10 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $480,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The former Gold Coast captain has made his way to the Tigers. From a Fantasy Classic perspective, it was great that he got to 10 games so that he is priced at 67, his lowest since 2013. In 2016 Lynch went at 86.1 from 22 games, a PB, and backed it up with an 80 average the following year. Hampered by a knee injury this season, there is an argument that there is up to 20 points of improvement in him based on his best season. The Tigers are a low scoring Fantasy team, but things will need to change with a different forward set up that will see Lynch as the big man with Jack Riewoldt. No doubt he is value, but you’d want to back him in to hit that 85 or so mark to be worthwhile – but as a stepping stone and if the ducks line up, could be an underpriced forward to start the season with. I’m backing Lynch to average over the 80 figure and will rank him accordingly for Draft. UPSIDE, BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH.

Web Cycler Hero - Tom Lynch.jpg

NATHAN KREUGER TO GEELONG

TRADE #3 – Monday October 8, 1:55pm

2018 AVERAGE: N/A
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $180,000 (possible basement price)

FANTASY VERDICT: The Blues had access to South Adelaide’s Kreuger due to the bonus state league player allowances they were given. They’ve ontraded him to help grab some bargaining power for the McGovern trade. The 19-year-old’s most recent SANFL scores have been 47, 58, 67, 57, 88, 60, 47… you get my drift. Kreuger is a 196-cm key forward who can play back and is most likely playing in the Cats’ VFL side, at least to begin with in 2019. YOU’D THINK HE’S UNLIKELY TO GET OPPORTUNITY.

ANTHONY MILES TO GOLD COAST

TRADE #2 – Monday October 8, 12:48pm

2018 AVERAGE: 78 (1 game)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $407,000 (27% discount)

FANTASY VERDICT: If there’s a bloke who could rack up points in a VFL standard team, then it’s Anthony Miles. The former Giant and Tiger had three seasons at Richmond averaging 86 or more, but it’s his VFL numbers that are most impressive. In 2014 he went at 110, 2015 played all 22 AFL games for the Tiges at 87.7, in 2016 averaged 105, a whopping 123 from 14 games in 2017 and then this year 105 from his 16 appearances in the magoos. You’d think the 26-year-old will play all 22 games for the hapless Suns and add to his 19 tons from his 69 career games in his new colours. MID-PRICED LOCK IF FIT.

COREY ELLIS TO GOLD COAST

TRADE #2 – Monday October 8, 12:48pm

2018 AVERAGE: 43.5 (4 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $257,000 (18% discount on 2017’s 43.8)

FANTASY VERDICT: Hasn’t set the world on fire, but you could probably say the lack of opportunity has been a factor for the DEF/MID. In 2016 he played a career high 11 games for an average of 61.7, but has only added 10 more appearances in the last two years. In the VFL, Ellis has gone at 89 and 85 the last two seasons. A discount and the added opportunity that he’ll get at the Suns will make the 22-year-old an option priced at 36 – which is less than the top end rookies. PRE-SEASON WATCH.

LINCOLN McCARTHY TO BRISBANE LIONS

TRADE #1 – Monday October 8, 10:43am

2018 AVERAGE: 49 (2 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $293,000 (24% discount on 2017’s 55.3)

FANTASY VERDICT: As Roy affectionately referred to him as Linc the Stink, the Fantasy scores to expect from the soon-to-be 25-year-old Cat are a bit smelly. His best season return was 2017’s 55.3, but that was from just three games. He averaged a point fewer in the prior season which he finished with 17 games. A move to the Lions could see him play in the midfield and as a pressure forward according to David Noble, but I’m not sure if two scores in his career over 80 is enough to contemplate him even if he is likely to be priced at 41. Maybe averages somewhere between 60-65 at best. ONLY IF WE’RE DESPERATE FOR A HIGHER END FORWARD CASH COW.

LUKE DAHLHAUS TO GEELONG

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Friday October 5, 12:38pm

2018 AVERAGE: 78.5 (17 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $561,000

FANTASY VERDICT: I’ve been a big fan of Dahlhaus – probably due to being a previous owner and enjoying his 22 games in 2015 at an average of 97.3 – but he is trending backwards despite the Bulldogs having a high possession game. While playing as a true MID/FWD, from the naked eye, his splits would be more time up forward, probably suffering from the rotating options for the Dogs’ midfield spots such as Josh Dunkley getting more time in the second half of the season. Dahlhaus’ return in 2018 was his worst since 2013. While he has enjoyed some great Fantasy numbers in his past, you’d think that MID/FWD split at the Cats would continue to keep his numbers down due to their beast midfield. TOO FAR DOWN THE PECKING ORDER.

REECE CONCA TO FREMANTLE

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Friday October 5, 10:57am

2018 AVERAGE: 74.1 (16 games)
2019 PROJECTED PRICE
: $530,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Injuries (and brain fades) have played a part in his lack of games across his eight years at the Tigers. Conca played the majority of the season, producing six scores over 90, only to miss games through a broken ankle early in the round 15 game against the Swans. This arguably makes him underpriced as he left the field on just 5 points. Take out that score and he’s comfortably had an 80+ season which would rank as his best to date. Mostly used in defence, Conca relies on tackles to get his numbers up. Providing he’s fit, he’ll have greater opportunity at the Dockers and should be an increase in numbers. IT’S A NO IN CLASSIC, BUT A DECENT LATE ROUND STEAL IN DRAFT.

KEY TRADE PERIOD DATES

Friday, 5 October: Restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period starts.

Monday, 8 October 10am: NAB AFL Trade Period starts.

Friday, 12 October 5pm: Close of restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period.

Monday, 15 October 2pm: AFL restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends.

Wednesday, 17 October 8.30pm: NAB AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of players).

Friday, 16 November 2pm: NAB AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of selections only).

Discuss the trades and any Fantasy value you find in players at their new club in the comments.



2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Goonbag Fantasies (@gb_fantasys)

    October 8, 2018 at 10:55 pm

    Miles is interesting, might even be a unique with the likes of Hanners and Scully set to be around the 430k mark.

  2. Warnie

    Warnie

    October 13, 2018 at 7:16 am

    I want this Shiel deal to get done! Excited for the Dons… and Zach Merrett in Fantasy (not that he wasn’t already an underpriced lock).

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