Versus – Round 3

Round two proved to be just as frustrating as the opening week for many coaches, particularly those with the likes of  Crouch, Sicily, Rayner and Merrett, just to name a few. Today in Versus, unique midfielders Jack Macrae and Lachie Whitfield are put head-to-head, along with potentially risky picks Shannon Hurn and Zach Tuohy, both of whom are tempting options given their roles and good start.

Jack Macrae ($751,000, MID) VS Lachie Whitfield ($717,000, MID)

Positives: Consistency and Uniqueness: Jack Macrae endured a consistent 2016 season, only recording four scores of under 90. He played in all 22 of the Bulldogs home and away games, finishing with an average Fantasy score of 103. If you’re after consistency in your premium’s, Macrae will give you that, even though he may score a couple of perhas-frustrating 90’s instead of cracking the ton. At the time of writing, Jack Macrae has an AFL Fantasy ownership of 0.88% – making him one of the most unique of the premium mids. Having averaged 104, 104, 98 and 103 in the past, you can be fairly confident you’ll get a three figure average.

High Ceiling: From his eleven tons, Macrae recorded seven scores of 110+ last year – meaning 63% of his hundreds are 110+. His ceiling hasn’t hit the heights of Tom Mitchell, Zach Merrett, Dayne Zorko and Josh Kelly, etc, however he has demonstrated he can still go 130+ on his day. Just last week, Macrae put up numbers which yielded one of these big 130+ performances. He racked up 31 disposals (11 contested possessions, 20 uncontested), 6 marks (all uncontested), 4 tackles, 3 goals and 134 points from 87% time on ground, in a potential best on ground outing, despite the hefty loss. In addition, he recorded an elite disposals efficiency of 90%, 445 metres gained, 11 score involvements, 6 clearances (including 4 centre clearances) and 6 inside-50’s.

No Threat Of Tag And Fantasy-Friendly Role: Don’t get me wrong, Jack Macrae is a very damaging player when he is given time and space on the wing to hit his targets by foot. But you don’t tag him, not whilst Marcus Bontempelli is in the ‘Dogs side. With Liberatore unfortunately out of the side with yet another season-ending ACL injury, Toby McLean has stepped into the on-ball role. But Macrae’s balanced, inside and outside style will ensure he maintains this strong start. This year, Jack Macrae is playing a role which allows him to rack up touches and tackles in stoppage situations but also collect plenty of uncontested marks and kicks along the wings. His strong running ability also allows him to surge forward and impact the scoreboard, like he did against West Coast. On the weekend, Macrae’s foot skills were on display, reaching an efficiency of 90% from his 31 touches. His heat-map from Sunday afternoon shows him spending significant time on the wing. This all sounds positive from a Fantasy perspective.

Negatives: Lack Of Genunie Star Power: An argument could be made to suggest that Macrae overvalued at $751,000, given he produced seven scores in the 90’s last year. Despite managing three triple-figure season averages, I don’t feel as if Jack Macrae has ever truly proven himself as a genuine Fantasy star. There is no shortage of premium midfielders this year, with the likes of Cripps, Selwood, Coniglio and even Heppell all priced below Macrae. Are you happy paying $751,000 for a bloke who has yet to break the 105 point average, given there are so many other options?

Positives: Defender DPP Status: It will come as no surprise to those who have watched a Giants game over the first two rounds, but Lachie Whitfield is set to add defender status. In the Saturday afternoon clash with Collingwood, 70% of his possessions came in the defensive half. You can virtually lock it in already, come the first wave of DPP additions in round six. And this undoubtedly means he is a certainty to become a top six defender, having started the year off with scores of 114 and 123. But by the time round six comes around, he is likely closer to $800k than $700k. If this is the case, Whitfield will well-and-truly be the most expensive defender, or at least second to Rory Laird. Getting him in now will not only save you cash, but give you a premium midfielder who can be easily switched to the back line when necessary. It’s a tempting proposition.

Fantasy Friendly Role: Put simply, Lachie Whitfield’s role is exceptional for Fantasy purposes. He has slotted in seamlessly and appears to be playing some of his best football. Whitfield’s heat map from the weekend very clearly sums up his role on-field, as the kicker off half-back.Having spent the large majority of his five years in the system as an outside midfielder on the wing, the Giants identified Whitfield as a candidate to fill a defensive void left by the departed Nathan Wilson and injured Zac Williams. Lachie’s blend of elite foot skills, decision-making, awareness, speed and endurance make 2012’s number one draft pick perfect for the role. Against the Magpies, Whitfield recorded 26 disposals (at 88% efficiency), took a massive 13 marks, laid 3 tackles and kicked a goal for his 123 points. But more indicative of his role, Whitfield recorded just 2 contested possessions from his 26 total touches and all of his marks were uncontested. Those two statistics do a pretty good job of summing Whitfield’s role up, together with his heat-map.

Negatives: Threat Of Tag And Other GWS Options: With Tom Scully out indefinitely with a significant ankle injury, do opposition teams put more work into Lachie Whitfield? The Giants are well known as having an abundance of damaging midfielders, however teams may deploy a defensive forward in order to nullify Whitfield’s damage from the defensive-50. So far this year, albeit just two round in, GWS’ midfielders are producing the goods. Coniglio has opened his 2018 account with 146 and 120 and is priced only $8k higher than Whitfield, whilst Josh Kelly is averaging 116.5 and looks in top shape. Coniglio’s breakeven is 75, compared to Whitfield’s 90. The thing that is going for Lachie is his DPP potential, but is Whitfield even the best Giants option?

Yet To Average 100+: Lachie Whitfield came into the league as the coveted number one draft pick and slotted straight into a very young, inexperienced Giants side. Since then, he has played out four seasons, recording season averages of 79, 83, 84 and, most recently, 97. Granted, he appears likely to hit the triple figure average this year, however his previous season averages don’t exactly fill owners with the confidence he can become an out-and-out premium midfielder or defender.

Verdict: I like what I see from both of these guys, but for me, Whitfield’s DPP places him just ahead. The classy Giant has really found his place at half-back and looks set to crack the three figure average for the first time in his career. Macrae, despite the Bulldogs multitude of issues, has been a shining light and would be worth considering if trading out Matt Crouch or Zach Merrett.

Zac Tuohy ($613,000, DEF) VS Shannon Hurn ($596,000, DEF)

Positives: Role: All sides these days have a designed kicker or general who is deployed across the backline to help return the ball up-field and create meaningful attacks. For Geelong, Zach Tuohy fills this role. He is renowned for his solid foot skills and is often the go-to guy for kick ins, at-times launching barrels down the guts when no other option presents itself. Against the Hawks on Easter Monday, Tuohy collected 80% of his 27 disposals in the defensive half of the ground. He racked up 20 uncontested possessions, 453 metres gained, 7 rebound-50’s and 10 uncontested marks. This role is perfect for Fantasy football.

Positive Progression: Every year since 2014, Zach Tuohy has improved on his average, going from 51, to 68, 72 and 85. If this upwards trend continues, he looks to be good value at a few dollars over the $600k mark. With Laird, Yeo, Simpson, Lloyd and potentially Lachie Whitfield all firming as likely candidates for a top six defender spot, Zach Tuohy is not without a chance of slotting in. Baring a drop off like 2017, I reckon Tuohy has the potential to average 90+, especially if he continues to spend 95%+ time on ground each week.

Durability And Low Ownership: Tuohy has missed just four games in the past six seasons, suggesting his durability is strong. Given the early injuries and suspensions to relevant players such as Tom Liberatore, Matt Crouch, James Sicily, it would be nice to get in a bloke you can trust to turn up every week, or close too it. But then again, a similar thing was said with Matty Crouch, wasn’t it? Tuohy’s current ownership rate of 4.6% makes him a player of difference, who always prove handy as the season progresses.

Negatives: Inconsistency: During the 2017 season, Zach Tuohy recorded five tons – four of which came within the first seven rounds of the year. But after that, things turned pear shaped from an AFL Fantasy perspective, hitting the three figure mark just once in the final 15 rounds. And there were some horrible scores in this period (four 60’s and a 56). This certainly has to be taken into account before taking the plunge with the former Blue.

Tough Fixtures: Tuohy and the Cats face a tough set of opponents in the next five weekends, starting with West Coast at Optus Stadium. They are ranked 7th for points against and restricted the Bulldogs players to three hundreds – all of which were recorded by midfielders. The troubled Saints follow in round 4 and although they have endured a tough start to the year, are currently sat in 11th place for points against, having conceded 0.5 scores of 120+. Port Adelaide (ranked 2nd), Sydney (ranked 9th) and GWS (ranked 5th) proceed, rounding off a potentially hazardous stretch for Zach Tuohy and Geelong.

Positives: Role As Eagles General: Shannon Hurn is a real asset for the Eagles, with his ability to set up and dictate play across the half-back line. Last weekend, against an admittedly poor Western Bulldogs outfit, Hurn collected 22 kicks (at a cool 90% efficiency), 7 handballs, 10 marks (9 uncontested) and 118 Fantasy points. The Eagles love it in Hurn’s hands and make an attempt get it to him whenever exiting the back-50 – as demonstrated by his total of 21 marks for the season, of which 19 are uncontested. His season heat-map very clearly showcases his influence across the backline as the Eagles general. Hurn does not score fluently from tackles, he doesn’t kick plenty of goals and his total disposals numbers, although strong, are certainly not off the charts. However 189 of his total 230 Fantasy points have come from kicks and marks alone – that’s 82%. His game is simple and it’s paying off for the 1.14% of coaches who are sitting smugly with him in defence.

Kick:Handball Ratio: I often get frustrated with players who regularly rack up large amounts of touches, yet most of them are handballs. Far out, imagine if Tom Mitchell, who has tallied 41 kicks and 53 handballs so far this year, flipped his kick:handball ratio. Clayton Oliver is another who would explode if his ratio was slanted to the side of kicks. Yes, Mitchell and Oliver play contested, in-and-under roles which see them handball out of packs often, but just imagine. Shannon Hurn does not have this issue. So far in 2018, he more-or-less has a kick handball ratio of 4:1, which undoubtedly helps his Fantasy production. Expect plenty of +6’s from Hurn.

Negatives: Will He Keep It Up?: For years, 13 years to be exact, Shannon Hurn has eclipsed the minds of many a Fantasy coach. His highest season average was 79, back in 2014 when he played 18 games. Now skipper of the West Coast Eagles, Shannon Hurn is showing strong signs of being Fantasy relevant. It would take a bold coach to trade in  Hurn, despite his super start to the season. It’ll look sensational if you get him in and he continues on with his form, perhaps concluding the year with a 90+ average. However, I can’t help but feel he is just as likely to return to his regular 60-70 scores. The risk is high.

Tag Threat: Everyone is aware that Shannon Hurn is a lethal kick of the sherrin. He seems to inflict damage on the opposition whenever he has ball in hand. It would make sense to shut him down, from an opposition perspective. If you are able to eliminate or at-least curb Hurn’s influence, the West Coast defence looks considerably less harmful. By sending a defensive forward to the Eagles skipper, a 90+ average is taken straight off the cards.

Verdict: These two players have seen a bit of attention over the part few days. For me personally, I would much rather bring in guys who I am confident will be top six defenders. With Hurn and Tuohy, I’m just not sure they will make the cut. However admittedly both have had strong starts to the season and play great roles which allow them to rack up plenty of +6’s through kicks and marks. I’d favour the Eagles’ Hurn if I had to choose one here.