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Deck of Dream Team

Tom Mitchell – Deck of DT 2018

$896K… that’s a big number! Is Titch worth the big bucks?

Image result for tom mitchell s.afl.com.au 200x320Name: Tom Mitchell
Team: Hawthorn
Position: MID
AFL Fantasy: $896,000
Bye Round: 12
2017 Average: 127.2
2017 Games Played: 22
Predicted Average: 125
Draft Range: 1… no range, just pick him first!

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Why should I pick him?

Titch is now a Fantasy Pig.

Oh, that’s not enough? You want me to go on?

The background needed is that we all knew that Tom Mitchell has a Fantasy game about him. We saw that at the Swans at times despite Horse throwing him in the green vest, making him play less than Fantasy friendly roles and even some NEAFL stints while wearing the red and white.

His final two years up at the Swans saw averages of 106.7 (17 games) and 105.6 (22 games) before heading to the Hawks for what was the best Fantasy season of all-time; an average of 127.2 (22 games). That’s right, the best ever. Swanny was the first Pig in the pen who knocked out an average of 133.5 and Rocky who has the world record season average of 134.7 haven’t scored as many points as Titch has in a single season. That is arguably more important – the fact he is durable and can be relied upon week in, week out.

Mitchell’s first season as a Hawk was something special. It took until round 19 for him to produce a score under 100. And yep, that was a 94 (he knocked out 99 the following week) so sadly he didn’t go the whole season with 100+ in each game. The numbers per phenomenal. While only one score was over 150 – a thumping 177 against Collingwood in round nine when he collected 50 touches and Bucks didn’t think they should be giving him any attention – Titch had one score (115) below 122 for the opening nine rounds. It was amazing.

An average of 36 disposals for the season with five marks and seven tackles is a statline that screams piggery – but what is amazing is that he did this with a kick:handball ratio of 1:1.5. This isn’t a trait of a good Fantasy player, but if you’re getting the pill that much, then the extra point is being made up… and some!

Looking ahead to this year, the big question is do you start with him? Being priced at $896K, that is 7% of your salary cap… and if you made your team up of Titch’s, you’re only going to be able to fill 14 of your 30 spots.

The short answer is yes.

Some coaches like to wait on a player that is ‘fully priced’ or in other words, priced based on their high average from the previous year that is their personal best and at best maintains it, or more likely performs below that level. There is a possibility that Tom Mitchell can go to another level. In round one they Hawks take on the Pies. In his last four games against Collingwood, Tom Mitchell has scores 135, 177, 132 and 138. All of those scores are higher than his breakeven and he could in fact go big and be worth over $900K after the first round (let that number sink in!).

Even if he averages less than last season, it would have to be significantly less to drop him to a value that you could upgrade to, otherwise it’s a ‘sideways’ (or upgrade) from a premium that you have already selected in the hope they’ll be in your team all year.

Image result for tom mitchell s.afl.com.au

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

$896K is a lot of money.

With a potential lack of rookies/players under $200K, we will be paying a few more dollars for our cash cows and the old faithful Guns n Rookies may not work as well as it has done in the past. It could be more of an Underpriced Guns and Higher Priced Rookies strategy to use it to full effect.

If you ‘somehow’ think he’s going at 115 or below, it would be worth waiting on him. He’ll drop more than $100K over those first few weeks and possibly be ‘value’ at the byes. The kick:handball ratio could be a reason to be scared off, but think about those numbers reeled off before. That’s no reason to be worried.

One factor – and we didn’t see much of it last year – is how the Fantasy points are spread in the Hawthorn midfield when a fully fit Jaeger O’Meara is there. Not that I think it would matter. In O’Meara’s best game in the yellow and brown, round 23 last season, he scored 101… while Mitchell still knocked out 120 in a display that saw 32 disposals next to his name as well as seven marks and six tackles.

There isn’t anything that I can justify not starting with him. If you don’t and it comes off, you’ve got lucky! Either nailing the right mid-priced and value premium options or Titch has picked up an injury or his form somehow goes against all logic and drops off. You won’t be a genius, you’ve just been kissed on the dick by the fantasy fairy.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – With four weeks (and one day) until lockout, don’t go wasting your time on thinking about this selection. Yes, he’ll most likely drop a bit in value, but how will you realistically be able to get him? It won’t be a downgrade and an upgrade… it’ll be multiple. If you’ve got him from the get-go, you skipper is locked in and you don’t have to stress about not owning a pig. Ham is the best meat you can get in Fantasy – even if the beef from the prime cash cows tastes good. Lock him in and if you’ve got Pick 1 in your Draft league, you’d be silly to even contemplate anyone else.

Is Tom Mitchell a certain starter for you?

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Thank you for reading the Deck of DT articles this year! Once again it has been an awesome series with plenty of players put under consideration – or crossed off lists. Huge props to our writers. Without the team of legends that we have here on DT Talk, we wouldn’t have the best fantasy site on the web! Click the image below to check out all of the cards and get excited – we have four weeks of the pre-season to go with plenty of great stuff coming on dreamteamtalk.com!

44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. thebopper58

    February 21, 2018 at 8:25 am

    Warnie

    Will Fantasy Freako rave be back this year especially through JTL pre season🤔
    Thank you to all who provided DODT leading up this season
    As the CW would say Good luck to you all in 2018

    • The Chosen Won

      February 21, 2018 at 8:51 am

      Good Luck™

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      February 21, 2018 at 10:27 am

      I assume the Freako will have the Rave out. First one probably out following the second weekend of JLT. But most of the stuff that is in that is easily accessible (ie. scores, TOG, etc).

  2. TimorSaint

    February 21, 2018 at 8:39 am

    ill cross my fingers and hope titch posts a few lower scores (of 100 only) in the first few rounds then snap him up…. I got burnt by hannas last year, so it’s a tentative pass for me

  3. PK

    February 21, 2018 at 8:48 am

    “You’ve just been kissed on the dick by the fantasy fairy”

    Classic.

  4. Euman

    February 21, 2018 at 8:55 am

    Thanks for the deck has helped emmensely

  5. andyjh

    February 21, 2018 at 9:00 am

    Nice write up Warnie. Im not going to risk floping my rod out & waiting for the DT fairy to give it a smooch.. Titch is locked in.

  6. Roger

    February 21, 2018 at 9:51 am

    Locked and throw away the key

  7. TimorSaint

    February 21, 2018 at 10:17 am

    clearly im out on a limb – but im sticking to my rookie, Rose and breakout theory

  8. Kanye

    February 21, 2018 at 12:14 pm

    I’m crossing my fingers and hoping for a dik kiss

    • The Spud

      February 21, 2018 at 12:25 pm

      Same here bud

      • Kanye

        February 21, 2018 at 1:43 pm

        ACtually downgraded Titch to Treloar with the hope that Treloar goes gangbusters for the first few rounds playing in Melbs

  9. Billy

    February 21, 2018 at 1:13 pm

    7% of the salary cap is a lot, but lets say titch scores 120 x2 with the C = 240, a round 1 total score is usually around 1900. Thats 12% of your round 1 score which i say is good enough to start the fella

    • SamO

      February 21, 2018 at 10:07 pm

      But if you take out the bench players (say 8 times 170k) you have 8.4% of the on-field cap (at a minimum). And he may not average 120, or another option who is 100k or more cheaper may do instead.

  10. everard

    February 21, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    I never started with tom mitchell. And its hurt me but now thinking to go down to beans and upgrade defence thoughts

    • TimorSaint

      February 21, 2018 at 3:18 pm

      my thinking too – i dont want to battle with DEF for half a season. Rocky and Kelly my C and VC starting off

  11. everard

    February 21, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    Beams

  12. Hugh

    February 21, 2018 at 2:49 pm

    That’s just confused be more! Can’t decide between Danger and Zerrett or Titch and Treloar……

    • TimorSaint

      February 21, 2018 at 3:20 pm

      d time i read. that will drag his average down

      Teloar and Zerret for me + upgrade a DEF with saved $

      • TimorSaint

        February 21, 2018 at 3:20 pm

        danger will play more forward time i read ….

        (sorry)

    • everard

      February 21, 2018 at 3:41 pm

      I would go zerrett and treloar to. I have titch, adams, zerrett, m crouch and rocky in mid. But heard beams will have more midfield time and like his fantasy game. So choosing beams over titch for more money in defence thoughts?

  13. Mick

    February 21, 2018 at 2:53 pm

    Titch and Adams would be better….

  14. mfawcett

    February 21, 2018 at 4:27 pm

    I’ve been hearing a lot of feedback that the AFL Fantasy Draft is having some serious issues. I have the number 1 pick in a league that’s been playing for about 5 years now, but guys are saying in other drafts they’ve done there’s lots of freezing and even first draft pick from one guy said he went to pick Mitchell and froze up and gave him Merret. Even on auto draft Mitchell is still ranked 1. Anybody heard similar stories? I’m worried:)

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      February 21, 2018 at 7:53 pm

      No dramas the other night for me. We had a 10 man draft that went for about an hour. No issues. Haven’t even seen anything come through on the official twitter handle, apart from people on their app (which isn’t supported as yet – they were emailed about this prior to the draft happening – will be resolved for this weekend apparently).

      The drafting platform for AFL Fantasy is great. Much easier to use than UF (which is good, and then much better for settings/flexibility).

  15. Constantinople

    February 21, 2018 at 6:22 pm

    Just leave menagola for Hawk and then forget he exists

  16. Matt

    February 21, 2018 at 6:31 pm

    Locked in every fantasy side I’ll ever have until the day I die or he does and ACL.

  17. The Cricket

    February 21, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    Warnie, I love your work but, really, can well do without the dick reference!
    First, reckon you should try to adhere to the site’s own guidelines and keep it clean ffs – you don’t have to be crude to be funny. And, of course, your crudity prompted others to respond in kind. Not funny.
    Secondly, not all Fantasy coaches have dicks anyway … enough with the blokes’ club mentality, please!

    • everard

      February 21, 2018 at 7:46 pm

      Its a joke funny classic good laugh

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      February 21, 2018 at 8:13 pm

      Thanks for the feedback. When writing, I didn’t really consider using a gender neutral term for a colloquial phrase (finally enough I first heard from a canteen lady at footy). As for keeping it clean, I don’t know if this was stepping over the boundary but for me, it is nice to be able to write on our site in a more relaxed ‘blogging’ tone that I’m unable to do when writing for the AFL site. Sorry if it comes off as too ‘blokey’, it’s very much a term I use without gender in mind.

      • Gawn For A Quick Nank

        February 21, 2018 at 8:50 pm

        don’t worry about the bender warnie you star

      • mfawcett

        February 22, 2018 at 11:45 am

        Cheers Warnie:) We’ve never had any dramas before in the past, just a few guys in the league saying that they’ve been experiencing issues with their other drafts in this format in the past week or so:)

        • mfawcett

          February 22, 2018 at 11:47 am

          oops, that is meant for my post above:) But on this post, keep doing what you’re doing. We’ve been enjoying all (DT talk guys) your bluntness and directness for years and why your all the best at what you do. Don’t change:)

      • Canteen Lady

        February 22, 2018 at 1:55 pm

        Too many dicks, not enough blenders

    • PK

      February 21, 2018 at 9:02 pm

      The world is too PC these days, get offended at the most minor things. I thought it was gold, but if i didnt think it was funny I wouldnt be offended, id just move on and accept other people do by reading the earlier comments. Harden up.

    • Ned kelly

      February 21, 2018 at 9:07 pm

      Clown

    • The Chosen Won

      February 21, 2018 at 9:27 pm

      Get back in the kitchen!

      Good Luck™

  18. Bandicoot

    February 21, 2018 at 8:07 pm

    Political correctness gone mad again. Don’t worry Warnie. I loved the comment.

  19. Bandicoot

    February 21, 2018 at 8:08 pm

    The more people who choose not to start with Titch are simply more than I don’t have to worry about.

    • everard

      February 21, 2018 at 9:53 pm

      You will worry when i have beams locking loaded massive underprice and easily 100k rise

  20. everard

    February 21, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    Just did calculations on his price your paying 450k for 63points yuk

  21. Brown Dawg

    February 21, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    Haha @ The Cricket Asking Warnie to keep it clean ffs. You realise what “ffs” stands for? Such a great site with the best podcast going round. No need for these pointless digs. Keep up the top work Warnie!!!

  22. Arthur Mongrel

    February 21, 2018 at 11:57 pm

    Cheers to all the guys who contribute to the DODT – always an awesome guide for the upcoming season.

    On a side note, have a draft coming up next week and we initially chose a 6 team finals series over 3 weeks – 12 team league – which was perfect. Now it seems that there is only 2 options – final 4 or 8. Neither of these really work with a 12 team league. Any ideas “Traders”?

  23. Buzzy Bee 🐝

    February 22, 2018 at 7:16 am

    Perfect choice to finish the series. Thanks to all the writers for another great DODT.

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