Heritier Lumumba – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Heritier Lumumba
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Defender/Midfield
AFL Fantasy: $402,000
AFL Dream Team: $401,000
Bye Round: Round 13
2014 Average: 71
2014 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 81

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Why should I pick him?

Did someone say more midfield time!? Yep, the common preseason catchphrase applies to Lumumba (source). Do you believe it? You should! Melbourne has a severe lack of outside midfielders that can use the ball well and Harry would fit in nicely on a wing in my opinion. Coaches should also note that with the Dee’s defensive game plan, there’ll be plenty of opportunities for a rejuvenated Lumumba to get on the end of cheap +6’s in any running midfield role.

It’s no secret that Heritier had a falling out with Buckley in his final year at Collingwood and his on field performances were below par as a result. Now under the guidance of ‘Messiah Roos’ expect significant improvement from Lumumba on last season. His potential has many Fantasy coaches watching him closely.

Lumumba is priced at a 71 average. If he starts the season well and scores an achievable 80+ in the early rounds then he’ll earn owners a cool $60,000 (approx.). With the Dees having the Round 13 bye you could easily offload him if things aren’t working out. Low risk is smart planning!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

There is so much love for Lumumba this preseason but I highly doubt he will live up to the hype. Footwire.com tells me that Harry has a pretty poor season average when it comes to Fantasy…

His career best Fantasy season was in 2013 with an average of 87.7. His 62.1 and 71 averages surrounding that year are a huge concern. I don’t know about you but I like my premo defenders averaging well into the 90’s!

At Melbourne, Lumumba won’t have Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Swan, Beams, etc. feeding him easy outside ball and taking a tagger or two. I suspect some teams will lock down on Harry this season given that he is one of few Demons that can run, carry and create from half back/wing. There will definitely be a few sub 50 scores along the way so don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Outside players like Lumumba that typically play backward of centre don’t get into the thick of the action. Goals and tackles are healthy boosts for Fantasy scores but Lumumba is hindered significantly in these areas. He kicked just 3 goals in 2014, averaged 2.6 tackles per game and given that his best is arguably past him, I doubt he’ll improve on these numbers this season.

So now that we have ruled out Lumumba as a top 6 defender, why spend circa $400,000 for a short term option!? You’re better off picking one of Ibbotson, Vlaustin or Henderson and saving a heap of money for pretty much the same, if not better, output. Remember it’s all about value in the early stages of Fantasy and Dreamteam.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK – Many would agree that Lumumba is a very handy Fantasy player but he’s not the cheap premo that we should all be locking in come Round 1. Inconsistent form across his career is a key indicator that he should not be touched. With all that said, I still expect an average in the low 80’s if that tickles your fancy.

I probably could have given him a Queen rating given the lack of decent defenders this season but with a very young Melbourne brigade around him, the potential of more ‘midfield time’ and returning to career best form means little. Those that pick him have more faith than I do.

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