The Numbers – Round 3

Numbers… They are what DT is all about! Price changes; break-evens; the number of Essendon-related media articles… the list goes on. In 2013, I will strip the records clean on a weekly basis and scour the web for numbers different to those we spend our days staring at… Staring at in the hope that we’ll have a fantasy football epiphany; and all of the secrets of the DT Universe will be revealed.

The Numbers… Putting calculators out of a job since 2012.

2 – Weeks that popular Essendon rookie Nick Kommer will now spend on the sidelines through suspension after his work against Freo on the weekend put him in hot water. A seemingly late but terrible attempt at a shepherd turned ugly as Kommer clipped Kepler Bradley on his way down, causing the Docker to be taken from the field with bloody gushing from his face. If, like me you have the Dons’ hard-nut, then you need to move him on this week before on-the-bubble rookies like Crouch (BE of -61) and Rowe (BE of -63) bolt and it’s too late.

3 – The amount of wins that dominate the top half of the AFL Ladder at this point of the season. With an amazing 5 teams all currently undefeated, there are some very happy coaches in the league at the moment. Congrats to the Bombers, Power, Swans, Tigers and Cats for their great early-season form; and similarly commiserations to GWS and Melbourne plus a surprised North Melbourne and Carlton as the four of them sit squarely on in the bottom quadrant with a disarming 0 – 3 record to start the season.

5 – % of game time that Freo defender Luke McPharlin saw on Friday night before getting knocked out by a bump from Essendon ruckman Paddy Ryder that is sure to be reviewed heavily by the MRP. For those that may have McPharlin in Draft-style leagues (let’s be honest, you wouldn’t have him otherwise), his zero score may have caused problems as despite not getting on the board – the second a player steps foot on the ground their score (zero or otherwise) counts towards your total.

6 – Estimated rounds that Carlton ruckman Matthew Krezuer is expected to miss with a broken thumb. After starting strongly yet again, Kreuz succumbed to the injury after just 19% of game time – leaving 17.2% of coaches with a 200cm problem in their ruck division that needs to be sorted this week.

7 – Number of DT tons Eagle JJ Kennedy had scored over this 8-year career prior to this weekend. Long known for his standing as a promising key forward, he seldom racked up big scores as his main source of output was purely in goal scoring. Well, in 2013 this is changing as he plays further up the ground and well outside the goal square; and the results are outstanding. In the first three rounds alone, he’s banked 12.3 Goals, 45 Possessions and a DT average of 103 showing that JJK is ready to break out. Currently outscoring fellow gun forwards Buddy Franklin, Matthew Pavlich and Taylor Walker, Fantasy coaches may now be looking at not just a stepping stone to a premium – but a keeper in their forward lines. Not bad for $272k!

8 – Minutes it took for returning Blue Heath Scotland to reassure Carlton fans in his first game of the season on Sunday. Taking possession from the throw in, Scotland calmly snapped the first goal of the match from 30m out to put the Blues on the board and bring a smile to Mick’s face. Sadly there were no smiles after the match from the Carlton camp as they fell to another strong finishing Cat’s outfit, which triumphed 119 – 103 points to hand the Blues their first 0 – 3 start to a season since 2008.

14 – Number of premiums* Oliver Wines outscored with his 25 touch, 9 mark, 5 tackle, 2 goal performance in the Adelaide Showdown at the weekend that resulted in a massive 126 DT points. As well as beating out a mass of Fantasy jets, he now boasts an average of 102 points to be hands down the best rookie performer of 2013 (so far). Is this guy a star or what?

141 – Rarely does a stat from the VFL (or other competition for that matter) get mentioned, but given the relevance of the nature – I found it interesting. Given Blues’ ruckman Matthew Krezuer’s ill-timed injury, it’s convenient that they have a brilliant tap-ruckman sitting in their reserves. Brought across from WA a few years back, Rob Warnock is yet to fulfill his destiny at Carlton. Spruiked as possible trade bait in the offseason, Malthouse declared him a required player and the talk was quelled. The bad timing of Kreuzer’s injury (given the stark situation at VISY Park at the moment) is bettered only by the excellent timing of Rob Warnock’s brilliant form in the VFL at the moment. His game of Saturday was outstanding as he helped the Northern Blues to a 164 point thrashing of Bendigo, with ‘Knockers’ tallying 21 touches, 7 marks, a goal as well as 56 hitouts for 141 DT points. Surely, Mick will look to recall the giant this week for his first game of the season.

57, 700 – $ that 2012 GWS sensation Toby Greene lost this week for his owners. Greene unfortunately tops the list of the biggest price droppers for the week as he struggles with the extra attention that comes with being a young superstar. His owners should have really jumped off last week, but if you stuck strong and backed him in – you should hold him now given he’s likely to bottom out in the next few weeks as he looks to steady his break-even with big scores against Melbourne and the Gold Coast in the next two weeks.

161, 800 – The $ amount you would’ve made if you were smart enough to offload underperforming Dayne Zorko (51) this week for in-form Port star Justin ‘The Hoff’ Westhoff, who scored 140 and rose $68k. You would’ve also made a massive $93k from this trade, while second-year Blues victim Zorko dropped a huge $47k. Cheers to Simon Innes (@thanme on Twitter) for this one.

*Based on 2012 midfielders with a 100+ DT Average.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

 

Talk of the Town

Despite his previous mentions already, I would be lax if this guy wasn’t mentioned here. Before 2013, there used to be a player that ran out for Port Adelaide every week. His big mop of hair and quiet persona made him a ghost in the DT community – someone seldom talked about due to his middle-of-the-road, never-be-picked-in-DT nature. Fast-forward to Round 3 of the AFL Season and there is this new bloke roaming around the Port forward line. He kind of looks like a young Jesus Christ and is playing like a man in his prime. ‘The Hoff’ as he’s appropriately named, befits the awesome form that he’s started the year with. Averaging between 70 and 80 the past 3 years as a second-tier half-forward doesn’t exactly inspire the phrase ‘pick me’. But his performances over the opening rounds of this season have everyone talking about him. Currently rolling with a Swan-like average of 131.3, he still has a negative break-even (-20) and with the Gold Coast this weekend, another big score looms for the young-Jesus. His price is set to top out around an insane $550k, which means you could likely jump on board (if you haven’t already) and trade him down to a Buddy Franklin-type in a few weeks and make money. Thanks to the new trading schema, this is possible and relatively risk free. That’s Dream Team for you.

 

The Benchmark

I won’t go into this in great detail, but I would like to congratulate ‘The Mick’ coach Mike again. Mentioned here last week for being top of the rankings overall, Mike held onto the mantle with a solid 2049 points to be on top two weeks running. With the strong competition and huge amount of luck involved at the top of the tree, it’s a huge effort to stay there for multiple weeks. Great job Mike – now can you make it three?

 

Whore of the Week

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought Dustin Martin was supposed to fade in the second half of games and shy away for a score of 90-odd? Well the nay-sayers were silenced on Sunday as the young-gun tore the sorry Dogs to shreds and went on a rampage with 35 disposals, 10 marks, 3 tackles and 2.1 goals – totaling a round-high 144 points. It’s been said all summer – but this is Dusty’s year.

 

The Round Up

Highlights – Ollie Wines, come on down! After an amazing debut that earned him a rising star nod, he bettered that in R3, scoring a premium-esque 126. Westhoff’s 140 and Cox’s 132 was bettered, however by Scooter Selwood’s brilliant 142 against lowly Melbourne. JJ Kennedy deserves a mention here too after scoring another ton on the weekend to give him an average of 103 heading into R4.

Lowlights – Kreuzer’s broken thumb-induced subbing for just 21 caused waves in the community, whilst Zorko’s continued failings should see him ditched by several more this week after a measly 51 (against the Suns no less). Our solid run with our Port defensive rookies slowed this week also, with Pittard (28), Stevenson (40) and Heath (49) getting far less ball against the more seasoned Crows.

Team McRath – Two trades cost me dearly this week. Whilst they looked great on paper, hindsight and ill-luck conspires to now make me question my entire season. Instead of offloading the out-of-form Zorko, I bargained by ‘downgrading’ Mundy to Brent Moloney (82) and used the cash to ditch Karnezis for in-form Matthew Krezuer (where I could’ve had Westhoff) to sure up my ruck division. Luckily Kreuz only lost a few dollars and Moloney still did his job – but compound his 21 with underperforming ‘guns’ Zorko (51), Danger (95) and Ablett (105) plus all of the lowest-scoring rooks; and I got the lowest non-MBR score I’ve ever got, along with a tidy 50,000 weekly ranking – throwing me back into the pool of the masses around a ranking of 8,676 after my good start. Back to the drawing board.

How did you do in Round 3? Did your trades come off, or fail miserably like mine?

Feel free to shout out some feedback in the comments, or perhaps put forward your own creative Numbers for the week. Also – if you’re not already… follow me on the Tweetvine @McRathDT