Brush your hair, tie up your laces, and put on a new ironed shirt, because we are about to delve into premium territory; the best of the best, the cream of the crop, the crème de la crème. Today – we look at what it takes to be the best player in AFL Dream Team. Welcome to MadMonday!

 

Defining a Gun

 

 

Firstly, let’s be frank: just because a player averages 100+ does not make them a Gun! It makes them a Premium scorer, yes, but not a Gun. Premium’s score big! Guns score well and often. Understanding the difference (when looking at your starting line-up) between a premium scorer and a Gun player is paramount to a successful year.

For picking Guns to start in your line-up you really want them to be one of the top ten scorers across the year (in their position). But don’t get caught up on averages, the score you are after is based on their total score, the end of season, played every game score.

Ask yourself, will this player play every game (or very close to), scoring a decent average, and rarely let you down? If so, this makes them a Gun. Players who are high scorers in nearly every game they play, and generally sit on top of the average column, but often miss games through injury, suspension or resting’s should not be considered Guns.

Why? Guns are players who continuously score well, and often. They’re scoring output is not comparable across lines, so each line (forward/defence/midfield etc) has their own score bracket which classifies them as Guns. The emphasis on a starting Gun is that the player will be set in their position, scoring reliably, all year.

Every preseason you hear: ‘Pick him, he is a Gun!’ or ‘I’m going Guns and Rookies – no question’ and then they throw in Alan Didak, Heath Shaw or Lance Frankling. Without setting myself up for a public hanging; they are not Guns (this season). Understanding what a Gun is will make or break your team; and I’m here to break it down for you.

 

It’s easier than it looks; sort of.

 

 

The Guns and Rooks strategy is used to get the best score possible whilst making plenty of cash. Your starting Guns keep the score ticking over whilst your rookies make you cash, so that you can buy players who will make your score even better. Therefore, you select Guns you think will be listed amongst the top 10 players in their position (or top 5 for Ruck), by seasons end. Why? This means you won’t have to trade them, or even worry about them during the entire year, your score will still be strong, and you won’t have to rely on your D9 or F9 to avoid a donut.

But how do you figure out who will be a top ten player? Well, I have put together the following tables highlighting what is needed from a player, across a season, to be a Gun.

 

Average required to break into the top 10 of each line, or top 5 for rucks, in 2012.

	Every Game	Misses 1	Misses 2	Misses 3
Defenders	78	83	88	95
Midfielders	105	110	120	125
Rucks	82	86	92	98
Forward	87	93	99	105

 

This is also fairly consistent with last year’s averages, which are as follows.

 Average required to break into the top 10 of each line, or top 5 for rucks, in 2011.

	Every Game	Misses 1	Misses 2	Misses 3
Defenders	80	84	88	93
Midfielders	103	108	113	119
Rucks	79	84	88	92
Forward	88	92	97	102

 

Let’s be honest. Looking at the average needed, if a player plays every game, to finish as a top 10 player in his position; it’s amazingly low if they play every game. In fact, a player can average nearly fifteen points lower than the highest averaging player, and still make the top ten if they play every game.

 

Using it to our advantage

 

 

The fact that a defender only needs to score 80 or more if he plays every game or a midfielder needing 105 on the same basis can save us a fortune when picking our teams. Although your line-up may not have the star power of others, it’s the scoring power that matters.

Now obviously you’ll always want certain players. A couple of potential captains (Boyd, Ablett or Swan) and the unquestionable players for their position like Deledio or Cox. But who do you pick for the remaining spots?

If at the start of the 2013 season the magic number is around the 4,100 mark, then a five point difference in average when prices are released will be approximately $20,000. Ten points difference = $40,000 and 15 points = $60,000 and so on. If you can find the players who will average 15 points less than the best, but play every game across the season, you have the winning formula.

We Should Have Known	We Should Have Gone	Saved
Lance Franklin (18th Forward)	Matthew Pavlich (3rd Forward)	$37,000
Corey Enright (13th Defender)	Andrew Mackie (12th Defender)	$62,000
Dyson Heppell (14th Defender)	Michael Johnson (4th Defender)	$96,000
Aaron Sandilands (23rd Ruck)	Sam Jacobs (4th Ruck)	$34,000
Joel Selwood (16th Midfielder)	Trent Cotchin (8th Midfielder)	$88,000
Tom Rockliff (17th Midfielder)	Andrew Swallow (11th Midfielder)	$63,000

 For example, the difference between these two sets of players in 2012 is $380,000.

Despite the appeal of great premium scoring opportunities, we all should have known that Franklin would miss games either through suspension, resting or niggles, Enright would be rested at least twice or injured, Heppell wasn’t a proven scorer, Sandilands had toe/body issues, Selwood would get knocked out or knock someone else out and Rockliff was all over the shop.

The smart coach also knew that Mackie was consistent, Pavlich, Cotchin and Swallow played nearly every game with solid scoring, Jacobs would be reliable to play, and Johnson, well, under Ross Lyon anything could have happened, but at least he had his body and mind right. Despite this, many of us overlooked these Guns because they aren’t likely to pump out 140s on occasions. But they also aren’t likely to miss games.

The extra $380,000 saved could have been the difference between sneaking in an extra Gun in your starting line-up, or for those saying ‘you have to risk it for the biscuit’, upgrading a few rookies to midfield break-out player. Players such as Dangerfield ($350,000), Grimes ($330,000), Ebert ($308,000) or even Tuck ($350,000).

So next season, when we don’t have expansion teams to rely on for rookies left, right and centre, I’ll be looking down the list and working out – who will play every game whilst scoring consistently? Although there is always risk in this (Goodes and Pendlebury for example), it means we can avoid Fyfe, Franklin and Rockliff disasters, whilst cashing in on Guns like Dangerfield, Grimes and Cotchin. It will leave you with less worries, more trades (which would otherwise be used for LTIs) and then when a premium scorer does drop in value (Carrazzo, Mitchell, Stevie J and Fyfe) you’ll have the cash, and the room for upgrades.

Public Forum

 

 

What do you think? How do you balance star power with scoring power? Which big names have let you down this season and who are the big names you’ll be omitting from your starting line-up next season? Or is it just all too hard, like catching lighting in a bottle? Let me know via twitter or in the comments below!

Until next week,
Keep Dreaming!