Player Projections for DT Finals – Rucks

You’re almost as well off tossing a coin as you are reading this article because this year there’s a better chance of finding a North Melbourne member than a reliable ruckman. Interpret the following with caution.

Just a reminder that the weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

No, this model hasn’t been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication in the journal Nature, so I accept that it won’t provide unequivocal finals projections. If you think it’s shit then go have a good cry.

 

Player	Price		F1		Score		F2		Score		F3		Score		F4		Score		Finals Average
Ivan Maric*		$485,300		WB		100		FRE		100		ESS		107		PTA		105		103
Dean Cox		$481,500		GEE		92		PTA		103		COL		97		HAW		94		97
JarrydRoughead		$449,500		PTA		91		GC		94		SYD		92		WCE		87		91
Sam Jacobs		$409,600		FRE		84		BRIS		101		MEL		79		GC		96		90
Ben McEvoy		$406,100		MEL		88		GEE		91		GWS		89		CARL		91		90
Hamish McIntosh		$408,800		ESS		79		COL		89		FRE		89		GWS		97		89
Shane Mumford		$363,300		COL		87		WB		78		HAW		82		GEE		100		87
Stefan Martin		$397,100		STK		91		GWS		83		ADE		83		FRE		86		86
Will Minson		$387,200		RIC		90		SYD		78		GEE		87		BRI		86		85
Jonathon Griffin		$373,000		ADE		79		RIC		90		NME		86		MEL		82		84
Patrick Ryder		$417,400		NME		96		CAR		79		RIC		81		COLL		78		83
Todd Goldstein		$392,700		ESS		79		COL		87		FRE		85		GWS		76		82
David Hille		$368,400		NME		85		CAR		77		RIC		79		COLL		78		80
David Hale		$377,800		PTA		84		GC		78		SYD		77		WCE		79		80
Jonathan Giles		$314,500		GC		90		MEL		66		STK		71		NME		89		79
Ben Hudson		$359,400		CAR		79		ADE		74		PTA		78		WB		77		77
Nicholas Naitanui		$373,000		GEE		84		PTA		76		COL		78		HAW		69		77
Darren Jolly		$375,900		SYD		78		NME		71		WCE		70		ESS		83		76
Tom Bellchambers		$320,700		NME		75		CAR		76		RIC		75		COLL		76		76
Matthew Kreuzer		$309,900		BRIS		75		ESS		70		GC		73		STK		79		74

* Given his trade, I haven’t included his data from last year.

 

The verdict

There are really no surprises here – Maric and Coxy are the best ruck duo in the competition. Maric’s late omission on the weekend seemed like a blessing in that I figured it would mean he’d play through the remainder of the year. That was until my carnage-magnet friend Ashleigh (it’s actually ridiculous how many injury-related trades she’s had to make this year) broke the news to me thatDamien Hardwick hasrevealed he has a groin problem and “will be nursed through the rest of the season”, whatever that means. More forward time? Probably. More Angus Graham to take points off him? Probably. His scores will suffer? I think there’s a good chance. With this comes the importance of our backup rucks. If you have Derickx at least you know he’ll come in if Maric is rested again. His score might be only slightly better than a donut though. There might also be a need to sacrifice an emergency in our other positions and make sure we put it on our backup ruckman in case Maric is another late omission. This sounds like rubbish that we don’t need to be dealing with at this point of the season. With this in mind, maybe Cox is a better optionas West Coast’s loss hopefully means that he can’t afford to be rested as they strive to cement a top 4 place. Although Ashleigh also has him so you can be assured he’s going down soon.

At this juncture I want to say that I trust Sam Jacobs over Ben McEvoy, but Jacobs hasn’t been afflicted by any untoward conditions thus far and no ruckman seems immune from a stint on the sidelines. His recent form is pretty impressive though and I reckon he’ll do at least as well as Roughhead, who costs $40,000 more. So just cross your fingers and focus on that Adelaide run home I’ve been harping on about – lock him in.If we are to trust Brad Scott, HMac’s return (if at all) will be as a forward so stay away from him. Goldstein’s early season form has affected his projections so I reckon that he’ll be a bit better than what is shown above but I’d still go McEvoy. Roughead’s biggest problem is GF day, as he has struggled against the Cox/NicNat combo.

The return of currently injured ruckmen is going to affect the scores of their counterparts who are currently playing. Stay away from Stefan Martin as Jamar’s returncould spell the end of his DT contributions. Freo’s situation is similar as they have some pretty good ruckmen (who’ll therefore probably end up being traded to some nuffs in the offseason) but an uncertain outlook. Griffin has actually been pretty reasonablethis year but I don’t know how much of an effect the big 211’s return will have on him. Add Essendon to the list. Bellchambers might actually be a bargain if Ryder can stay injured for us, but who knows. All guesswork, which suggests we play it safe and leave these guys out. I don’t see the logic in grabbing someone like Martin, Minson, Ryder (when/if he returns) or Goldstein anyway given that Jacobs is only a touch more expensive and should perform better than all of them – I reckon it’s worth freeing up that little bit more cash.

Guys like Hille, Jolly and Kreuzer are probably better suited to backup roles (which will probably end up being critical at some point during finals). Although NicNat is capable of winning mark and goal of the century in the same passage of play, he’s probably not going bring home a league win for you so I wouldn’t be relying on him.

If you’re considering upgrading a field position to the likes of Ben Hudson, Darren Jolly, Matthew Kreuzer or Jonathon Giles then your definition of the word ‘upgrade’ leaves much to be desiredand I wish you all the best for your nuffs’ consolation finals series.

Forwards to follow.

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.