The Numbers – Round 5

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. It seems that with every passing week in 2012, the DT Gods are looking to try and outdo themselves. Last week it was Ablett and Carazzo, this week it was Birchall, Hargrave and Porplyzia. Round 5 saw some massive DT scores and some equally depressing scores; but all in all, the games played this weekend gave us some interesting figures to sieve through.

Let’s have a looks at this week by the numbers…

1 – The score difference at Half Time in the game between North and Gold Coast. Going into the game without Gary Ablett Jnr was daunting enough, however the young Suns (led by Karmichael Hunt) used their aggressive style to put off their more fancied opponents. Despite North winning by 33 points by the end of the game, the red and yellow army from Queensland’s Tourism Capital put up a brave fight to show that the Suns will be an AFL force in the future, already showing their ability to be competitive for large parts of games against quality opposition. Early call for the 2015 Flag?

3 – Massive late withdrawals on the weekend. First Hargrave pushed the envelope with a late resting decision by Coach McCartney; then Birchall gave many their first donut for 2012 with his failure to get up for the game against Sydney; whilst for many it was Porplyzia’s will he-won’t he act that threw us over the edge. For me personally, it was Porps’ withdrawal that gave me my first donut as team selection turned out to be a fickle bitch with a number of DT-relevant rookies also not playing.

4 – With DPP defensive rookie options lacking in DT, promising Cats utility Billie Smedts gave us hope with his hype coming out of the Cattery. He has thus far shown us little in 2012 – with scores of 50, 36 and 4 some of the lowest going around. With a measily initial price rise of $9,100 and a BE of 32, his price is barely high enough to warrant trading him – so for now he’ll be warming the bench until he starts to live up to that hype we heard in the preseason. If you were like me, and missed out on Bugg – it pains to see Tomas killing it ala Heppell in 2011; all the while Billie is sitting on the pine giving me no reason to promote him for D7 whatsoever.

5-0 – Current Win/Loss record of not one, but two AFL sides. 3 months ago if you’d said this would be Sydney and West Coast, you’d have been laughed at. However both sides have shown great ability, resolve and consistency to enjoy excellent starts to their respective campaigns. A journalist asked last week, “Is this Sydney team the real deal?” Following their win against preseason title favourites Hawthorn, few would now answer that question with a no. With the emergence of Kennedy, as well as the form of Bird and Goodes – the Swans are looking to be top-4 at this stage (at the very least). West Coast too, has shown last year was no fluke – surging to # 1 on the table with their early season form promising for the Western faithful.

15 – Possible Brownlow votes that one, Josh P. Kennedy could find himself on going into Round 6. With another amazing score, he finally appears to be having his breakout season – scoring another 147 to go with his season average of 113. Going into 2012 with virtually 0 chance up against favourites – Judd, Pendlebury and Ablett, Kennedy could me the smokiest of smokies to snap up the ‘Charlie’ this year.

39 – Total disposals by Adelaide midfielder Patty Dangerfield on Sunday v Port. With 28 kicks and 8 marks, he played the perfect DT game – dominating from start to finish. After a reasonable start to the year, this may be the game that sparks his quest to become a premium AFL midfielder. Still under $400k, with a BE of 40; his price will continue to rise so get on now if you’re interested. Not only is he a DPP Forward/Midfielder – but he has the all-important R11 bye, giving us one of the few decent picks out of this group.

40 – Total hitouts by preseason bargain, Hamish McIntosh at the weekend v Gold Coast. Now priced at $382,200 after his humble starting price of $273,500, HMac scored his 3^rd ton of the year on the weekend to be only 8 points behind Patrick Ryder in the race to be the highest current scoring ruckman in 2012. If you had the cojones to go with him from the start – I commend you. Along with Ryder, he is over 30 points clear of the next best performing ruckman, Sam Jacobs.

111 – Whilst it’s easy to throw pot shots at injury-prone Melbourne vice-captain, Jack Grimes; it’s great to see him finally deliver a decent score for his coaches. After 3 games at an average of 65, round 5 saw Grimes finally break the ton to post a positive 111 against St Kilda. Similarly, another young defender, Dyson Heppell posted an identical score on the weekend to give equal hope for his coaches that 2012 will be a good one.

113 – Difference in points total if you were unlucky enough to hold out hope as Goddard as captain. His dismal 58 points was disappointing given many were hoping on a big 120 +. This decision would sting even more if you had Swan sitting in your midfield with 171 next to his name. What could’ve been a huge 342 eventuated in a poor 116 in your defenders line.

304 – Breaking the record for most games played by a Swans player, veteran Adam Goodes sparked his side to victory over the Hawks on the weekend in his 304^th match. Currently the 3^rd longest serving AFL player (behind only Dustin Fletcher and Brent Harvey), Goodes enjoyed a fantastic game with 21 disposals, 3 important goals and a rounded 100 DT points. Hats off to another living legend – Simon Black, who also celebrated a huge milestone at the weekend. He tallied 22 touches, 8 tackles and a token goal as his side went down to the Cats by 38 points.

 

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Benchmark

Congratulations to Thumpers coach, Valerie this week as she totalled a massive 2353 to be top of the Round 5 scoreboard. Her Goddard-less backline was strong this week, with Lids, Scotland, Adcock and Broughton performing well; with Lake and Bugg also performing admirably. Her balanced midfield of Swan, Murphy, Boyd and Rockliff did the job, with Magner and McDonald helping the total along nicely. Giles and McEvoy did the job in the ruck; whilst her all-star forward line consisting of Robbo, Danger, Whitey, Dustin, Goodes and young gun Cameron pushed her into the elite category for this week. With her structure looking good, she is well poised to remain at the top for a long while yet.

I’d also like to give a quick shout out to DT Talk’s own destroy, who surged to around 200 this week with his 2200 + score – good job champ! If you manage to win the car, you should put that FJ Cruiser on a barge to the mainland and drive it around Australia to give all of your loyal followers a ride in the front seat!

Whore of the Week

One simply cannot go past the perennial DT Pig for WotW this round. Mr. Dane Swan, take a bow. His 171 points was the best for the round, surpassed by no one on his way to a massive total in Wednesday’s ANZAC clash with the Bombers. The star Magpie was everywhere as he totalled 42 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles and 3.1 Goals. For those who thought teammate Scott Pendlebury would be better than Swan this year (myself included), we seem to be eating our words early on. Whilst there won’t be any knee jerks just yet – he appears to be a must have this season (yet again).

Coach’s Pet

As of Monday afternoon it seems that most people are getting in Round 5 heroes Dane Swan and Josh P Kennedy. Both players had a season best total (171 and 147 respectively) to top the weekly rankings for points scored. With coaches now looking to cash in their maxed out cows, they’ll equally be looking to get in the best performing premiums to improve their side.

Value Pick

Based on a simple Dollars/Points ratio, I give you a simple way to display value (admittedly biased towards rookies given their low starting cost).

My Round 5 Value Pick should not be of any surprise as we say former-Subiaco-come-Sun ball magnet Kyal Horsley dominate proceedings against North in his debut. Taking full advantage of the Suns’ growing injury list, he scored 101 points from only 21 touches as he made 8 tackles in a fiercely contested game. His price of $119,800 gives him a fantastic weekly value of $1186.14/pt.

(Worst) Trade of the Week

Many succumbed to the urge of trading Ablett on Friday with the idea of getting in another premium to replace him. Options such as Swan (171), Thompson (138) and even Barlow (105) would’ve been solid options. However any who went with Joel Selwood would have been bitterly disappointed, with his 69 points (and likely suspension) unacceptable for his $500k + price tag. It appears Brisbane tagger Andrew Raines is going through a purple patch, having previously shut down Gary Ablett for a sub-100 score the week before. If he somehow escapes the MRP, watch out Jobe Watson – The Rain is coming for you.

Made a bad trade and want to vent? Let me know on Twitter @McRathDT

The Round Up

Highlights – Rocky and Danger lighting it up; Jacobs finally showing potential; McDonald and Giles stepping up for the rookies; and still managing to win 4 league matches despite a low score.

Lowlights – Where to start? Goddard’s lowly score; Ziebell’s inclusion turning pear-shaped (he was meant to fire against the Suns). Deledio giving us all a scare with his knee; Clarke’s negating role of Stanton limiting his own score; Ellis and Morris’ continued low scoring; and the bloody late withdrawals!

Team McRath – If last week was my improvement round, this week was my reality check. Dropping around 3000 places in the overall rankings, my score of 1886 was well below par. Whilst I had several stars in Rocky, Dangerfield, Robbo and Sidey; I was one of many who was let down by late withdrawals from Hargrave and Porplyzia, as well as under-performers like Goddard and Buddy; not to mention Smith’s sub affected 39. This week I’ll try to avoid trading if possible, however an upgrade to Stevie J or Martin this week looks tempting. Overall I’m still pretty happy with my squad and will be optimistic for a breakthrough score in Round 6.

It seems like every week we use the ‘C’ word the next week turns out to be even worse. So I’ll refrain this week and just say this – each round will continue to throw us unwelcome surprises, all we can do is try to avoid it where possible; prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. After all, it’s that renewed optimism that makes DT fun – because anything can happen.

Feedback appreciated as always. Also – if you’re not already… follow me in the Twittersphere: @McRathDT