Good trade, Bad trade?

So all the talk this week has been about a couple of gem rookies from Greater Western Sydney  on the bubble in Adam Treloar and James ‘Fossil’ Mcdonald and if we should prematurely cull a cash cow to jump on. Some old school stalwarts like @tbetta say ‘No! You can’t cull a cow before it has fattened, it’s a waste of trade!’ well times a changin’ and new age, unconventional strategies just may be the new black and what you need to get a head of the pack!

I’m going to look at a couple of the popular rookies that people have been talking about culling prematurely and seeing if in fact if you do lose in the long run or not.  Two of these popular rookies to be culled are Clay Smith and Adam Kennedy. The conventional way to trade would be to wait until their breakeven exceeded their average. Both Kennedy and Smith seem to have very reachable breakevens until their bye in rd 11 but are what we call ‘slow burners’ in that they accrue money every week, but not very much. This can get very frustrating, as the primary role of rookies (and especially mids) is to make their money and make their money fast to get those super premiums in quick. Combine slow burning rookies with visits form the general and the vest and you start to look at other options….

For me, the coach of ‘the running man’ I would look to trade McDonald to Smith and Treloar to Kennedy in my forward line. I also assessed other rookies such as Greene, Shiel, Magner and Devon Smith but believe culling these rookies is not economically viable, as they have too much growth lest in them. I haven’t assessed Tory Dickson, but it seems a no brainer to trade him! I have based my projections purely on Assistant coach data and if I did keep Smith and Kennedy, I would be looking to cull them in two weeks. Below is a table of the numbers of selling these guys this week, as opposed to two weeks time

Player out	Original value	Current value	Anticipated average	Projected value in 2 weeks	Profit if sold after rd 4	Profit if sold after rd 6	Difference
Smith,C	$107,200	$149,100	58	$192,200	$41,900	$85,000	$43,100
Kennedy	$104,200	$198,500	72	$236,100	$94,300	$131,900	$37,600

 

Player in	Original value	Current value	Anticipated average	Projected value in 2 weeks	Profit if sold after rd 4	Profit if sold after rd 6	Difference
McDonald	$98,700	$98,700	91	$256,100	n/a	$158,000	$158,000
Treloar	$104,200	$104,200	76	$222,200	n/a	$118,000	$118,000

There is obviously some holes in the data, as we have a very small sample size to pull from, combined with the general inconsistency of rookies and the unpredictability of the next vest, these values are by no mean set in stone, but is the best we have to work with.

To complete both trades this week would net me a profit of $136,200 in my bank account for instant use next week, but this is definitely not worth 2 trades. However, in two weeks time the projected future earnings between Smith and Kennedy is a humble $80,700 while Old Fossil and Treloar make you a cool $276,000 in the same time to be used for future trades, some $196,000 more than waiting. Add this to the $136,200 that you have made from cashing in this week and now up a $332,200 in current and future profit! The free cash could allow you to upgrade the stagnating Magner (thanks to his new tagging role) in 2 weeks to a fallen premium for minimum fuss.

Is this worth 2 trades? Well this comes down to everyone’s personal preference and situation. Myself, I think it is worth the two trades. Clay Smith cops more vests than Warnie when he plays, Kennedy has been on the downward curve and could get a visit from the general soon, while McDonald shouldn’t get a rest thanks to his recent 2 week stint on the sidelines and Treloar just getting warmed up after an interrupted preseason. Also, having a fit and playing bench is going to be more crucial than ever due to the recent general carnage in DT – injuries to Ablett and Gray, whispers of Pendlebury being rested and suspension to Stevie Johnson.

So in my humble opinion, I believe that prematurely culling these cows will work out in the long run to be more profitable than the conventional waiting until the cow has fully matured, while also providing solid bench options to add valuable points in the coming weeks.

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Feel free to hit me up on twitter @jimbobholder for a chat about DT!