Breaking Bad

Breaking Bad Out – 3rd Year DT Potential – By @douthteez

For those of you who have enjoyed the series Breaking Bad, you would know that Walter White was a devious fellow who also dabbled in chemistry (keeping this PG rated). When it comes to DT, the winning formula is sometimes right in front of your face, but you just can’t see it. Not unlike Walter White, we are all striving for the perfect recipe, and that recipe over the years has included the need to find those “Break Out” players. If you have not seen Breaking Bad, do yourself a favour and watch it, one of the best TV Series of all time!

With the update of the 2012 Fan Planner released to all purchasers of the 2011 Assistant coach, it has become very obvious that 2012 could in fact be the hardest year on record to put together a decent team in DT. All of our favourite premiums are priced accordingly, and with GWS seemingly taking up all of the low range pricers worth their salt, all of us in the DT universe need to ensure we are getting our hands on the best break out players available. In this article, I take a look at the top ten draftees from the 2009 National draft, and try to find who would be the best bets for a break out season. This is after all from which we get our 3^rd year players for season 2012. History tells us that this is the time that boys really begin to become men from a DT perspective… Lets Go!

Pick 1 – Tom Scully (GWS) – $379,400 – Mid

The money man of the moment. Melbourne burnt their tanked priority pick on this bloke thinking they would be able to hold onto him for the next decade. Oh how wrong they were! From a DT perspective, 2011 was not one of his better years, under immense media scrutiny as well as injuries allowing him only 10 games, Tom did average 76.7 points per game. Not a bad return by any stretch considering, but I do wonder how he will go with so many kids around him. This bloke is not Gary Ablett, so I don’t expect him to have a real break out year this year.

Prediction – To average 70-80 points per game.

Pick 2 – Jack Trengove (MEL) – $443,600 Mid

The heir apparent according to Melbourne supporters and some areas of the media. Jack is an extremely hard young man that bats above his age in a lot of aspects of his game. He was a popular pick for the 2010 season and didn’t let anyone down. Last year saw him step things up to average 89.68 points per game. This shows a nice growth curve and I would expect him to step things up even further without Scully there. He is durable as well only missing matches due to suspension. Provided he stays on the park and does not sling tackle anyone, I suspect that Jack will step up into the elite category this year.

Prediction – To average 90-100 points per game

Pick 3 – Dustin Martin (RICH) – $442,500 MID/FWD

Dont argue is an apt nickname for this kid (Kid, you gotta be kidding me!) and his average of 89.45 points per game in 2011 does not reflect I feel where Dusty was at in his development last year. His biggest upside is the fact that he has the capacity to rip out massive scores (Round 5 V Nth Melb – 141 points) and the fact that the midfield brigade at the Tigers is looking very potent this year with Cotchin, Foley, Deledio  (rumoured to be preparing for more of a run in the midfield this year) etc likely to help negate the tag that could be applied to him. The fact that he is dual position locks him in as a no brainer now as well. Im sure you were already planning on putting him in your team anyway, so Ill just finish of right here!

Prediction – To average 100-110

Pick 4 – Anthony Morabito (FREO) – $168,000 – Mid

Here is a guy who could not catch a break. Season 2012 will literally be Morabitos 2^nd season, not third, but when your priced at $168,000, He should be considered as a potential bench player for any side in season 2012. He was amongst Freos best players for the 2010 season averaging 56.67 points per game in his first season which included a 98 point game against the cats, and an 83 point game against Port Adelaide. I have never been one to want to bring in kids who have had knee issues in the past, but with a full 15 – 16 months to recover, to have him as a bench player could not hurt. Couple this with the fact that he has been doing everything Ross Lyon has asked of him since becoming coach (including not going on an overseas trip with his mates) and I think you have your first bench player potentially locked.

Prediction – To Average 70-80 points per game

Pick 5 – Ben Cunnington (NTH) – $260,000 – Mid

I have a feeling that there will not be much love for Ben from a DT perspective. Averaging 54.78 in 18 games in his first year, Cunnington then only played 16 games and averaged 52.56 in his second year. His starting price was $227,500 in 2011, but finished the year priced at $212,600. Players priced in the $200k range should really be increasing, not decreasing, and I cant see him breaking out in 2012 as a massive fantasy option……NEXT!

Prediction – To Average 50-60 points per game

Pick 6 – Gary Rohan (SYD) – $226,800 – Fwd

This tough as nails Sydney Ranga has been a good, but not great player for the swans over his past 2 seasons. He only averaged 45.8 points per game last year, and only played in 7 games in 2011 due to having injury issues. I believe he could be a break out player in 2012 provided he stays fit, but I don’t know if I could take the chance on him. There are rumours that he may have a role on the wing for the swans this year, which could generate more points than he has had in the past.

Prediction – To Average 60-70 points per game.

Pick 7 – Bradley Sheppard (WCE) – $253,700 – Def

Supposedly West Coast were torn between taking Sheppard or Lewis Jetta. Going by the numbers, I know which one I would have taken. Sheppard struggled to get a game with a resurgent West Coast last year, playing only 6 games and averaging only 57 points per game in his appearances. He only averaged 12 disposals in the WAFL when he did play last year back there, and was given negating roles by John Worsfold when he did get a senior call up. He was supposedly destined to become a midfielder for the Eagles, but cant see him breaking into that group next year. Suggest you search else where.

Prediction – To Average 40-50 points if he gets a game.

Pick 8 – John Butcher – (PTA) – $243,400 – Fwd

This bloke is an interesting one. Originally touted as a potential top 2 draft pick, Butcher didn’t make his debut for Port Adelaide until late 2011, but did so with a bang kicking 6 goals in only his second game. Injuries hampered him for his first 2 years, but with the last 4 games of the 2011 season to his name and already averaging 61.5 points per game, he defiantly will be staying on my radar for the pre season as a potential bench starter for my forward line. He could be a break out player in 2012 provided his body stays in 1 piece.

Prediction – To Average 70 – 80 points per game.

Pick 9 – Andrew Moore – (PTA) – $153,300 – Def

This Half back flanker has been another draftee hampered by injuries over his 2 years with Port. A tallish half back flanker, he has only averaged 31 points per game and not likely to get much better. Consistant game time is what he needs to mature into a potentially good player, but for DT purposes, defiantly one to avoid.

Prediction – To Average 40-50 points per game

Pick 10 – Jake Melksham – (Ess) – $344,400

Jake is a solid contributor for the Bombers. After averaging 59 points per game in his first season, he played all 22 last year for an average of 69.64. His upward trend is a good one, and is probably from a value aspect, the best potential break out player for 2012. Keep a close eye on him during the pre season, and if he looks to have improved, expect some decent scoring from this Essendon youngster.

Prediction – To Average 80-90 points per game.

Other notables outside the top 10 picks I feel who could have break out years from a DT relevance perspective are the following:

• Daniel Menzel (Gee)
• Luke Tapscott ( Mel)
• Ryan Bastinac (Nth)
• Jack Gunston (Adl)
• David Astbury (Rich)
• Sam Reid (Syd)

I have left off the likes of Suckling and Nath Fyfe as I think they have already broken out! I hope this info helps you all out in putting together your team for 2012!

Cheers

Douthteez.

Feel free to throw me a follow on Twitter @douthteez