Dream Team Stock Market – R22

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Another week of excellent DT scoring has ensured some tight finals matches and judging by the drop in chatter on the blog, I’m guessing that there are some disappointed coaches out there. Actually, I make that list, having gone down by a measly 9 points in my Qualifying Final… Gutted!! Ah well, such is life in the world of fantasy football.

Nice fighting win there by the Tiges to get over Sydney, a spirited effort and well overdue. The Dees took their under-performance to a new low – the shellacking at Skilled was pretty bad, but the lack of interest and poor team cohesion against the Eagles was dismal. Game of the round was Bombers/Bulldogs, which was played in good old end-to-end attacking fashion. The Fletch/Bazza duel was a highlight, but Morris’ double-fracture was undeserved and soured a brilliant match.

The stock market held fairly steady, with no real surprises. Our favourites Mzungu and ISmith lit it up again and would no doubt have got most of their coaches over the line. Most premiums delivered too, with prices steady or up across the board. There are a few bargain uniques to be had, which is timely considering this week’s Wrangle, where we look at our missing Cats. Thankfully we have been spared any other conundrums, for now!

On The Up has been dropped as long-term stock projection doesn’t have much relevance in our current here-and-now Finals market. Likewise, On The Slide has been combined with Blue Chip Bargains for a new section called The Watchlist, where we look at the premos we can potentially bring in this week or next. Let me know if you disagree though and the regular format may be resurrected. Bear in mind that the same objective applies all through finals, including this week’s knockout matches: get your best team out there, maximised by your trades!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Yes, trades are tight and while most of us are using them for sideways swaps to cover bye players, a few of you may have the luxury of pulling a big upgrade this week. And you can fund that by cashing out one of these fat cows!

Dion Prestia $239,500 DOWN$10,900 (UP$111,000) BE85. Prestia’s value is on the decline and is projected to fall $8,400 next week, forecast to bottom out at around $220k after R23. As most will have a combination of The Gu, Isaac Smith, Krak and/or Callinan (who may be back this week), you probably won’t be relying on not-so-neon Dion to be providing FWD/MID cover.

• Stock tip: Sell this week and you’ve gained $111,000.

Danny Stanley $319,100 DOWN$15,100 (UP$212,700) BE108. Dan’s been The Man down back for the last half of this season, but he’s slowed down a bit with a last three of 64, 77 and 83. He has a projected drop of $7,500 next week and is forecast to maintain a $300k value for the rest of the season. If you’ve got a bit of coin, it might pay to look at replacing him with his in-form team mate, Nathan Bock.

• Stock tip: A stonking $212,700 is yours if you offload Stanley this week.

Nick Lower $279,400 DOWN$22,900 (UP$186,900) BE111. There’s no hiding the stinker Lower had against Carlton last weekend, which has sent his price into free-fall with a loss of $22,900 this week and a projected tumble of $12,600 next week. If we’re going on pure value, it’s time for him to go!

• Stock tip: A very, very good gain of $186,900 if sold this week.

Zac Smith $239,200 DOWN$22,400 (UP$132,800) BE113. You have to love this guy’s value chart – it’s a classic bell curve, with a steady rise from the start of the season to a peak in R12-14 and now on a downward trend. Big Zac looks like he’s run his prep and is overdue for a spell, so take advantage of his remaining value and get a premium ruck in!

• Stock tip: Sell and bank a respectable return of $132,800.

The Watchlist

Aaron Sandilands $354,800 DOWN$24,700 (DOWN$51,700) BE135. Sandi is crucial to Freo’s success and the key element in their desperate fight to make the Eight, making him an excellent stock to monitor with a projected drop of $14,200 next week to bottom out at around $340k. If you’re not playing this week, this may work out quite well for you if you don’t have to sideways trade to cover Carlton players next week.

• Stock tip: Bring him in next week when he flatlines at $340k.

David Mundy $341,800 (DOWN$28,400) BE190. Due back this week, Mundy’s huge BE of 190 will see his price plummet to about $305k next week. With eight 100+ scores in 10 games (excluding his last injury-affected score), he’ll definitely do the job and will be outstanding value.

• Stock tip: A steal next week at $305k!

Greg Broughton $355,200 DOWN$25,800 (DOWN$15,800) BE149. It’s a bit hard to make a call on Broughton as his role changed to a defensive lockdown assignment last weekend, which was good for a 71 but not quite up to the 100+ numbers we’ve been expecting. With a projected drop of $17,400 next week, we have another round to check his role/form.

• Stock tip: Monitor and he may be a handy buy at around $335k next week.

Alan Didak $227,000 DOWN$27,000 (DOWN$184,100) BE79. If you’re struggling for cash, Dids may be worth a look. Malthouse looks to be tuning him up for a good hard run in the Pies’ finals campaign and his decent scores of 47 and 51 as a sub are nothing to scoff at. He is projected to drop by $8,900 next week, so keep an eye on him this weekend.

• Stock tip: If you can’t afford better, $227k isn’t bad money for Dids this week.

The Weekly Wrangle

This week’s hot topic is the tricky ‘out’ of Geelong players. There will be quite a few teams with two or more Catters in their lineup, the most popular being Chapman (35%), followed by Enright (23%), Stevie J (19%), Bartel (17%) and Jelwood (11%). The sharp coaches will have planned for this, holding trades to go with two sideways premo-to-premo swaps or, better yet, holding trades plus a healthy bank balance to go with two upgrades of fat cows/mid-pricers to premos to really build some depth. These moggies (common Cats… Geddit?) are carrying good value and will get you a solid premo if you go sideways. For a bit of a twist, let’s have a look at some in-form uniques, rather than the vanilla premos!

Chappy’s and Stevie J’s respective values of $376,500 and $439,000 will get you a straight swap for almost any premium forward this week, well any premium in Johnson’s case. Here are a few interesting options for you to chew over…

Cyril Rioli $331,400 UP$15,000 (DOWN$25,900) BE38. Deeelicious tore it up last weekend, carding a massive 151 to show that he’s in ripping form. With a run against Carlton, the Doggies and Gold Coast, he could be the difference that gives you the edge.

Shaun Higgins $329,500 UP$1,800 (DOWN$11,500) BE66. Missy has caused his coaches plenty of grief this season, but when’s he’s up and about he’s pretty dependable for a good score with a last five of 102, 89, 78, 98 and 100. An added bonus is that his FWD/MID gives you the same flexibility as Chappy too. Just check the news and whispers coming out of the kennel before you pull the trigger – caveat emptor!

Leon Davis $369,200 UP$15,600 (DOWN$102,500) BE52. Wow, Neon has snuck under the radar at only 4% ownership, but with scores of 136, 100, 95, 117 and 89 in his last five, there’s no arguing about his form. He has been let off the leash, roaming up forward and kicking the odd goal. Put him on your shortlist to backfill Chappy.

Ricky Petterd $310,800 DOWN$8,300 (UP$24,300) BE68. Ricky isn’t considered a premium by most coaches, but a look at his upcoming run may tempt you: Richmond, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide. At a reasonable price point, a score of 103 last round against the Eagles and the Dees run home, he may be a risk worth taking.

At $353,500, Enright is up there in value with most premium defenders, but these are the form backmen of the moment.

Matt Suckling $330,100 UP$1,500 (UP$117,500) BE52. It’s all about the ceiling for defenders this year and Suckers’ is sky-high with big scores of 111, 126, 120, 133 and 141 on his season’s resume. Of course, in the DT Grand Final the Hawks play the Suns, whom Suckers piled 111 points on back in R13. Tasty? You betcha!

Nathan Bock $337,200 UP$22,900 (UP$11,100) BE52. Bock’s form is hard to ignore, with three tons on the trot – 103, 108 and 110. They’ve come against quality opposition too, including the Saints and the Cats. Definitely a genuine smokey to replace Enright.

Jelwood’s $451,300 and Bartel’s $381,500 will also get you good replacements, including…

Jack Redden $424,500 UP$3,100 (UP$94,900) BE102. Breaking out in style this year, Redden has been in red-hot form with no less than 10 centuries in his last 12 games, including a last five of 118, 111, 119, 93 and 130. Those are some serious numbers and he’s showing no signs of slowing down!

Tom Rockliff $430,800 UP$6,300 (UP$68,600) BE86. Second-year wonder Tommy Rockliff has run neck-and-neck with team mate Redden, posting 8 straight tons! He’s a scoring machine and piles on the points against all opposition, making him a very worthy prospect.

Matt Priddis $417,300 UP$9,900 (UP$28,900) BE119. While not the most fashionable midfield gun going around, Priddis is in solid form with 110, 97, 150, 82 and 107 in his last five. A run of Essendon, Brisbane and Adelaide should see him finish this season with a flourish.

Dale Thomas $376,000 DOWN$15,900 (DOWN$19,600) BE75. He seems to make an appearance in the stock market analysis semi-regularly, but this week Daisy is good bang-for-your-buck. He bounced back from a niggle with 128 against the Saints last weekend and will be one of the Collingwood guns who is unlikely to be rested leading up to AFL Finals.

Liam Shiels $370,400 DOWN$1,300 (UP$148,900) BE60. Shiels looked like he was tiring towards the end of the season, but popped up with 123 and 106 in his last two. This year he has racked up some big scores, managing a whopping 147 against the Pies and smashing out 144 against Geelong. He looks like a big-game type who could bring it home in style for you.

Michael Barlow $385,400 UP$9,200 (DOWN$70,800) BE74. Highlighted as one to watch in recent weeks, Barlow’s high work rate and DT skills have been on show with 117, 110 and 103 in his last three games. I’m a huge fan and have no doubt that he will continue to build on his current good form and crank out good scores for the last three matches.

In Review

Covering for the Geelong bye and upgrading in the rucks will comprise the majority of trading activity this week. It’s a tough balancing act, but at least this Year of The Bye is almost over. Make sure you put lots of thought into your trades this week. If you’re in the same boat as me, you’ll be staring down the barrel of a make-or-break weekend, so crunch the numbers, work the stats and throw your ideas around if you’re after feedback, because it all comes down to this one game for those who have to play this week. Choose your captain wisely, make sure that every single trade counts and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT