Dream Team Stock Market – R21

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Here we are on the eve of Dream Team Qualifying and Elimination Finals! It’s been a tumultuous year, with byes and multi-byes adding to the usual headaches of under-performing guns, LTIs and peripheral distractions, eg ‘gamblor’ suspensions. And now with coaches like Mick Malthouse declaring that he might rest a few when the Pies play Geelong, get set for bigger headaches in the weeks ahead!

Well done if you’ve made the Eight, better still if you’ve made the Top Four. This is where your saved trades come in handy. Top Four coaches will want to win this week and skip through to the Preliminary Final (Week 3 of DT finals or R23 of the AFL home/away season). The advantage goes to coaches who have held 5-6 trades. A double trade this week may give you a distinct advantage on the weekend and also set your squad up with the strength to maintain momentum through the Prelims and Granny.

The Stock Market analysis has a slightly different look’n’feel for DT finals. Each week will bring a new challenge and The Weekly Wrangle looks at the ‘outs’ that affect the majority of coaches, as well as assessing the possible replacements. This week, it’s the rucking issue revolving around the popular second ruck Zac Smith, who may be rested and FWD/RUC swingman Drew Petrie being unable to cover him with the North Melbourne bye.

Of course, we’ll still cover the regular sections, though as mentioned before, the On The Up section will only feature the few bolters who will provide a good return during finals. Righto, on with the show!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Sam Iles $295,900 DOWN$4,800 (UP$185,500) BE109. Sammy Iles is bleeding cash and if you need to fund a big upgrade this week, it’s time to offload him before his projected fall of $11,400 next week. His forecast value won’t drop much further though, tapering off to $275k after R22.

• Stock tip: Just $4,800 off his peak, sell this week for a massive $185,500 gain.

Cam Pedersen $250,100 DOWN$15,400 (UP$151,700) BE110. Pedersen managed just 21 last week at Aurora, which has dropped his value by $15,400 this week. With the Kangas bye this week, he is ready to sell, otherwise hang on and watch his price fall away to $225k after R23.

• Stock tip: Gets you an excellent $151,700 of sold this week.

Simon Buckley $277,200 UP$800 (UP$179,600) BE86. Bucks’ chart has him peaking this week, with a projected fall of $4,400 next week. With DEF/MID DPP and a scoring range of 50-90, he may provide handy cover if ‘Pies guns are rested, so have a good think about this one.

• Stock tip: Offload this week and smile all the way to the bank with a gain of $179,600.

On The Up

Jack Darling $234,800 UP$27,600 (UP$142,300) BE-2. Everyone’s favourite Darling has bounced back from a quiet mid-season with a 99 and 88 in his last two, which bodes well for his value. He’s one of the few rookie stocks to jump at the moment and is projected to increase $20.800 next week with a forecast peak of $260k after R22. Good news for the 24% of coaches who have hung on to him!

• Stock tip: Trade out after R22 for a super $165k+ gain.

On The Slide

Dale Thomas $391,900 DOWN$19,500 (DOWN$3,700) BE170. That big BE of 170 this week should see Daisy’s projected value to fall $20,500 next week. It’s forecast to bottom out at $370k after R21, so he could be a good replacement for a Geelong gun.

• Stock tip: Forecast to bottom out after R21 at around $370k.

Greg Broughton $381,000 DOWN$24,500 (UP$10,000) BE142. The Gregory has absolutely shredded recently, returning 102, 96, 114, 149 and 139 prior to his 57 last weekend. That’s pretty stupendous! However, if he does return to his lock-down role in defence, those 50s and 60s might creep back in. Definitely one to watch.

• Stock tip: Bottoms out at around $360k after R22, but monitor his form/role.

Alan Didak $254,000 DOWN$18,700 (DOWN$157,100) BE124. A-Diddy has been talked up in the last couple of months as a potential super-sub. Well, you’ve got your chance to grab a past gun for an absolute steal after R21, when his value is forecast to bottom out at around $230k. Sure, that 51 last week was in junk time against Port, but if Micky Malt is building this previous superstar up for a big run in the AFL finals, we could be reaping the rewards in DT finals!

• Stock tip: Grab him after R21 for $230k.

Blue Chip Bargains

Aside from the ‘blue chippers’ that we’ve been monitoring this season, a couple of solid stocks from years past make the list. Why? There will be more than a few coaches scrambling to find a decent budget-priced player for a single-trade swap this week to replace a ‘Roo, eg Petrie, Andrew Swallow and Rawlings. It may pay to look at a unique-ish player who has put runs on the board before. At least you know these guys are capable and if they’re playing into form, they are certainly worth a look.

Matt Suckling $328,600 DOWN$14,800 (UP$116,000) BE102. Suckers has been a revelation this year, boasting an average of 93 this season. He has bottomed out this week and is pretty decent value to finish off your backline. The Hawks do rely on that booming left boot and his high ceiling should seal the deal.

• Stock tip: Get on this week or next week.

Sam Fisher $315,400 UP$4,000 (DOWN$38,400) BE51. For a player of Fisher’s DT ability, $315,400 is arguably better value than Suckers! He’s been given a run through the middle in recent weeks in addition to his normal rebounding role and this freedom certainly helps when he cops a forward tag.

• Stock tip: Excellent value at $315k – buy now! Well, on Fri after final team lists…

Darren Jolly $295,000 UP$6,500 (DOWN$36,100) BE35. DJ’s been struggling all year with a niggly knee, but he looks to be over it with a pair of 99s in his last two. He did finish off very well last season with a last four of 88, 85, 118 and 91. With the ruck wrangle this week, Jolly’s a viable option to replace Zmith.

• Stock tip: Buy this week before his projected increase of $10,900 next week.

Nathan Bock $314,300 UP$8,600 (DOWN$11,800) BE30. Bock’s last five have been impressive – 108, 110, 55, 90 and 80. His form has certainly picked up since mid-season and these are the sorts of numbers that we’re used to seeing from him. For those of you who want something outside of the usual Broughton/Suckling/Fisher fare, Bock may be just your unique.

• Stock tip: Trade him in this week or watch his price jump $16,500 next week.

Shane Tuck $293,500 UP$9,900 (DOWN$106,600) BE24. Here’s one from left field! Yarp, Tucky hasn’t been in favour at Tigerland, but he has come up with 96 and 112 since being recalled. As a massively fallen premo, there is an element of risk in bringing him in, but he looks to have his touch and should run out the next few weeks solidly.

• Stock tip: Bring him in this week or watch and consider him next week.

The Weekly Wrangle

This week’s wrangle revolves around the absence of one, and possibly two, of the more popular ruck options in Drew Petrie ($351,100; in 33% of teams) with the Kangas’ bye and Zac Smith ($261,600; in 29% of teams). Most coaches will have Cox paired with Zmith in the rucks with Petrie up forward to swing into the ruck for cover, or a combination of Cox/Zmith or Cox/Petrie in the ruck.

Being the first week of finals, we want our absolute best team available, so the likes of Lobbe, Bailey, Vickery, etc simply won’t do in the ruck. The options are: Straight swap Petrie for a premo ruck; or upgrade Zmith for a premo ruck with cash or a double-trade to free up cash. In either case, these guys should be on your shortlist as you don’t want to settle for less. Of course, Todd Goldstein feature for obvious reasons…

Ben McEvoy $359,100 UP$200 (UP$115,400) BE99. Big Ben has been a revelation in the Saints’ revival, proving to be one of the keys to their current run of six wins on the trot. He averages 94 and has produced a last five of 95, 90, 106, 61 and 106 plus a season-high of 139 against the Pies. His credentials are underlined by scores including a 112 against Goldstein and a 106 against Sam Jacobs, making him the form ruckman behind Cox and Goldy.

Sam Jacobs $354,000 DOWN$200 (UP$64,700) BE93. The move to Adelaide has worked out pretty well for SammyJ, where he has stepped up to the number 1 ruck spot. His DT scoring reflects this, with his last five being 118 (against Leuenberger), 69 (against Cox), 99 (against McEvoy), 101 and 120 (season-high against Sydney). As the Crows’ lone ruckman, he should be able to maintain a 90+ average over the next few weeks.

Shane Mumford $339,300 UP$9,900 (UP$7,300) BE53. The somewhat unfashionable Mummy is only in 4% of teams, but with all the DTT chatter this week, he looks to be high on the hit list of quite a few coaches out there. His last five are 93, 122, 81, 108 and 66, contributing to an average of 87. He has a season-high of 131 against the Blues. With a home run of Richmond (a), St Kilda (h), Geelong (a) and Brisbane (h), he’s definitely worth some thought.

Matthew Leuenberger $338,500 UP$2,700 (UP$17,200) BE77. Berger has pumped out am impressive set of consistent scores in his last five: 100 (against Jacobs), 90 (against Goldstein), 90, 91 and 11. He has a tricky run though, up against GC (h), Collingwood (a), WC (h) and Sydney (a). However, that consistency is gold and if he sustains it, he’s a set-and-forget option.

In Review

Now that the finals are upon us, it really is time for us to break out those trades to progress past this weekend. It can’t be stressed enough that you Top Four coaches have to approach the next game with a ‘must win’ mindset. Have a look at where you may lose out to your opponent. Trading to get McEvoy in for Zmith may get you an extra 50 points, which is well worth considering if it means you get next week off.

Ask questions around this blog; most posters will give you feedback worth chewing over. Have a good read of Calvin’s Captains and put some thought into your choice of skipper as this is another key in tight finals games. Most of all, make every trade count and good luck for the first week of finals!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT