Dream Team Stock Market – R18

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

There were plenty of Dream Team coaches who had a big weekend of scoring (no innuendo intended!), with 2200s and 2300s galore – great results all ‘round. There was some good footy too. The Pies/Blues showdown lived up to its blockbuster billing, while Freo surprised in Sydney without Sandi. Fantastic win to the Suns, who look like they might actually avoid the wooden spoon in their inaugural season – the future looks bright for the new team on the block.

The Shaw debacle has lots of coaches burning a trade to flick him for another premo defender, of which the likes of Deledio, Suckling, Broughton and Fisher appear to be the most popular replacements. Waters or Martin may be worth a look, with good runs in DT Finals. Let’s hope that no more of our premos are blown out of the DT market in the same manner, as we need our precious trades to cover real LTIs or to complete our teams.

Most stocks travelled pretty steadily, with no big surprises, but there were some disappointments, as tbetta kindly pointed out in the Bullets. There are a couple on the slide after below-average performances, giving us a juicy option or two to throw in the trading mix over the next few rounds. I’ve included the odd not-quite-so-premium name in this week’s analysis, as they have been mentioned in the blog chatter in the last few days. Anyways, enough small talk, let’s get on with the show!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Jake Batchelor $231,900 UP$1,700 (UP$139,400) BE30. Batch has been a fairly steady earner, albeit a bit of a slow burner. With a last two of 70 and 82 in his rolling 3-game average, his value is projected to rise another $10,900 after next round and forecast to peak after R19 at around $240k. He has logged lots of game time this season and may be worthy bench cover, but if you’re looking to build your bank, he’s just about ready to go.

• Stock tip: Sell this week or next week and gain an excellent $140k-ish.

Luke Delaney $150,600 DOWN$700 (UP$58,100) BE58. Delaney has filled in adequately in the Kangas backline without really busting out as a cash cow. His value is forecast to dip-and-hold in R19 at $140k. He’ll drop by around $6,000 after this round too.

• Stock tip: Offloading him this week gets you a fairly ordinary $58k, but his forecast value is not looking very promising.

Dan Nicholson $188,300 DOWN$2,800 (UP$83,900) BE62. A promising start by Nicholson has tapered off, with 43, 43 and 60 in his last three games. These scores have hurt his value, with a projected drop of $1,900 next week. Still, he’s been a fantastic short-term investment and is ripe for the picking. If you hold on to him, he should top out at $200k by R22.

• Stock tip: A neat gain of $83,900 if sold this week, or monitor his value weekly and sell between $190k-200k.

Jeremy Howe $197,100 DOWN$13,400 (UP$104,600) BE64. The big fella has had two sub-standard scores of a vested 21 and 39, stalling his value growth. His projected increase this week is just $800 and his graph is showing a flatline at his current $197k until after R19. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to his usual 70+ scores though, so he may be handy backup for his coaches.

• Stock tip: If you want to pocket $100k+, sell anytime now.

Tom Lynch $183,500 DOWN$7,400 (UP$63,000) BE70. The Sun’s Tom Lynch started brilliantly with 95 and 92, but he has really dropped off with a last five of 48, 26, 58, 81 and 18. Such is the life of a key big man! A drop of $4,100 is projected after this weekend and steady growth to $200k+ is expected after R21.

• Stock tip: Offload him now if a $63,000 gain is useful to you.

Brodie Smith $188,200 DOWN$8,200 (UP$79,700) BE95. That green vest really kills our cash cows! Smithy copped it again last weekend and only managed 13 points, effectively suffocating his growth potential. It’s a real shame as he’s put in 70-80 type scores, which are signs of a good earner. As it is, his value is projected to fall by $13,100 next week with a further dip expected, bottoming out at under $175k after R19.

• Stock tip: Take the cash and run, banking a gain of $79,700 if you sell him now.

Danny Stanley $311,800 UP$10,400 (UP$205,400) BE61. The recycled Danny Stanley makes the ‘sell’ list purely because this is about the time to trade him out if you really need the dosh. However, his last five 93, 91, 90, 79 and 83 has matched or exceeded the recent output of most of our premium defenders! This will most likely have you slotting him in your D7 spot for the rest of the season – a real bonus for the 12% of coaches who have hung on to him.

• Stock tip: Sell between this week and R19 to bank a whopping $200k+, but seriously, would you?

Dyson Heppell $314,400 UP$14,500 (UP$181,900) BE62. Compared to Stanley, Heppell is held by 47% of coaches, making him more popular than the likes of Ablett and Pendlebury! He’s also on the list because of the numbers – he is peaking (again). If you are concerned about his upcoming finals bye, his value has topped out and should stay steady after R19, which makes him a great stepping stone to a premium for just a little cash outlay. With good form and DEF/MID MPP, he’d be a hard one to get rid of.

• Stock tip: If you want to cash him out at his peak, this week or next week is the time to do it to gain $180k+.

On The Up

Dion Prestia $216,700 UP$18,600 (UP$88,200) BE4. There’s no doubting his skills, but ‘mercurial’ can also translate to ‘inconsistent’ and Prestia has been a real yo-yo of a cash cow. However, a last two of 92 and 74 have got his stock value heading upwards, which is what his coaches have been yearning for. A couple more games of around his average will see him become a very bankable commodity, as long as he doesn’t crash and burn before he peaks!

• Stock tip: With a BE of just 4 this week, he is forecast to top out after R19 at $240k.

Keiran Harper $144,800 UP$10,700 (UP$52,300) BE-6. Though steady, Harper hasn’t exactly returned big numbers, but his value is inching its way up. As long as he gets the opportunities, he should get his coaches a decent return in a few weeks.

• Stock tip: Projected to rise $17,700 next week, peaking at $170k after R19.

Allen Christensen $243,800 UP$24,100 (UP$146,200) BE-2. Hmm… 25 Touches, 8 tackles and 2 goals but no Rising Star? Bit rough on young Al, but in the DT world that 120 has given his value a real shot in the arm. For his patient coaches, he will provide a great return on investment after two more games!

• Stock tip: A big $20,900 bump projected next week, topping out at $270k after R19.

Andrew Gaff $171,300 UP$7,300 (UP$22,800) BE1. Mr Perma-Sub turned it on in style last weekend with a 104 against the Saints, showing Worsfold that he should be on the park instead of warming the bench in green. Fortunately for his coaches, his value will kick up sharply if he plays two more – here’s hoping!

• Stock tip: Tops out at $205k after R19 with a projected increase of $16,800 next week.

On The Slide

Joel Selwood $402,000 DOWN$25,000 (DOWN$41,700) BE137. We were expecting Jelwood to put in a big game against the Lions after sitting out for a few weeks, but he only managed 70 with the tag of Andrew Raines. Sure, he’s got a DT Finals bye, but the value will be there for those wanting what is now a unique-ish pick. Add to that his pre-suspension scores of 108, 92, 116, 122 and 121 and you have one that may make your shortlist of targets.

• Stock tip:Projected drop of $7,600 next week and forecast to dip to $390k after R19.

Ben McEvoy $385,900 DOWN$14,900 (UP$142,200) BE136. Coxy got the better of McEvoy last weekend, which is great news for those who are looking to shore up their rucks with a late season upgrade. With an average of 93 and no more byes to worry about, he could be a sneaky luxury upgrade for Zac Smith.

• Stock tip: Projected fall of $10,800 and forecast to bottom out at around $350k in R24; he’ll be a great ‘in’ over the next few weeks.

Blue Chip Bargains

Adam Goodes $340,600 UP$2,900 (DOWN$52,600) BE67. The Goodes train is leaving, so jump on now if you want a 92 average, FWD/MID DPP to finish your forward line! He’s put in a decent run recently, with 89, 111, 81, 92 and 91. We know the Swans’ skipper will give absolutely 100% to win, which helps to keep his scores ticking over each week.

• Stock tip: With a BE of 67 and only a bit above his lowest price of $331,800 this season, get him in this week.

Mark LeCras $323,500 DOWN$18,400 (UP$7,700) BE96. The Frenchman makes the list to satisfy the fanboys out there, who have talked him up as a potential unique for the run home, especially in DT Finals where the Weagles have Melbourne (Etihad), Essendon (Petersons), Brisbane (Gabba) and Adelaide (Patersons). If that tickles your fancy, then slot him in.

• Stock tip: He has bottomed out, so this week or next week are best to pick him up.

Leigh Montagna $334,400 UP$17,100 (DOWN$130,700) BE60. Monty showed his form last weekend, racking up 17 touches in the first quarter alone. His last three were 124, 78 and 105, giving us a bit of confidence that he is back. He’d be a pretty neat fit in your midfield and this week is probably the last chance to get on at this price.

• Stock tip: Buy this week as he looks to be on the rise.

In Review

Hopefully you’ve locked down a spot in the Top 4 of your league(s), or are making moves to shake up the Eight. Two remaining rounds of league games should have you executing the plans that we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, so you’ll have your upcoming opponents sussed, your shortlists sharpened and your trades marked out. Stick fat with your plans and keep a few trades up your sleeves for the sucker-punching ‘general soreness’ or gut-wrenching LTIs in DT finals time. Looking forward to seeing some big scores this weekend and, as always, make every trade count and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT