Doomsday Downgrades

I usually only write the Bullets on a Monday, so this is a bit out of the ordinary, but I was compelled to pen this given the carnage that was the Round 6 teams.

The next 12 hours will include some of the more season-defining choices you will be forced to make in Dream Team 2011. With the Multi-Bye and some untimely injuries (think Higgins), Round 6 was always going to be difficult enough. But adding in the slaughter of a handful of cash-cows and bench-cover options makes this week even more crucial to your success.

The big challenge this week is to find a balance between your weekly desires and your yearly needs. You don’t want to be trading in dodgy rookies or faux premiums just to cover a single doughnut. But you also don’t want to get behind in upgrades and cash stocks, as the next few weeks in particular will be huge! With Collingwood and Geelong having the byes, the Pendleburys, Enrights, Chapmans and Didaks become economical to trade in.

So I’m going to have a look at the Downgrade options by position, to help you either cover those doughnuts or free up some cash to make those upgrades in the next few weeks.

 

BACKS

The Round 6 Teams unfortunately brought news of popular defender Andy Otten’s return to the SANFL. Most already have Enright and Lower out, with a handful owning Broughton, Mackie or Young who will also be missing, so the news may have been pretty damaging to your DT and therefore your happiness. I know it was for me. Robbie Tarrant owners won’t be happy either, as he’s also bitten the dust. The options are thin, but here’s what you’re looking at:

MICHAEL HIBBERD ($92,500)

Okay, we all know about Heppell’s expected rest this week, and we forecast that this would give Hibberd his first run for the year. As expected, he enters the Dons on a wing, so he should be guaranteed his first run for the year. As for his job security, it’s questionable. With Dempsey out for the year his long-term inclusion looks slightly brighter, but the multitude of Bombers playing well for Bendigo are making it really hard for coaches to feel comfortable trading him in. He is at a really good price though, and in relation to the other options around, he’s looking pretty good.

LUKE THOMPSON ($92,500)

Despite the revolving door that is the Adelaide Team’s selection, Luke Thompson stays and is set to play his important 3^rd game for the season. Actually, his career. He only averages 52 though, so you would want to be pretty sure he’s going to hang around and function as either a cash-cow or bench cover for a while before burning a trade on him. As it stands, he has a BE of -32, so he should go up about 30k if he puts up another 50.

SIMON BUCKLEY ($97,600)

The advantage of getting this guy is that if he plays, it will be his third game. The disadvantage is that it will be for Collingwood, a fairly difficult team to hold a spot in. At this stage he’s only on an extended interchange, so don’t pull the trigger until he is named tomorrow, otherwise, look elsewhere.

FROM LEFTFIELD

If you’re looking to get sneaky, Ben Jacobs ($100,500) could be an option. He’s getting over glandular fever at SANFL reserves level, and played well on the weekend. You’d think he would get a spot in Port’s line-up at some stage this year given their current struggles, but if you got him in it’d be a huge risk, and some serious planning for the future. Otherwise, Irish import Zach Tuohy ($92,500) is an option, but his job security is next to non-existent, so I’d stay away. But desperate times call for desperate measures…

Netting most of these guys will get you about 100k in the bank if you’re not excited about Otten’s future prospects and want to downsize him. Some seriously handy cash for an upgrade, me thinks.

 

MIDS

Those bloody teams wrecking my week again. Bewick out, Prestia AWOL and Krakouer uncertain. To make matters worse, Harris and Stanley both populate an extended interchange for the Suns, although the latter is the only one in any doubt I’d say. Here are your options if you’re looking to get rid of either Bewick or Krakouer:

MATTHEW WRIGHT ($92,500)

I’m only mentioning this guy really because of his low price and because he’s actually playing a game. He only scored 27 in his first game and is named last on the Crows bench (sub-alert), so I’d stay clear unless you know something I don’t, or you just purely want to make cash.

MITCH WALLIS ($92,500)

One of the more solid midfield options at the minute. His sub-affected 10 will hinder his first price-rise until it’s out of the 3-game rotation, but he’s a good player who is sure to get a few opportunities throughout the year. Named on an extended interchange bench again, but expect him to play.

LUKE RUSSELL ($97,600)

The young Sun was the sub last week and finished with 29, which wasn’t too bad. Is on the bubble this week after his previous score of 35, and should make some money for you if you trade down to him. Not good for much other than bench-cover while he fattens up, but there is always the risk of him losing his spot or being subbed again. At any rate, he is named on the field this week so he should be safe.

ALISTAIR SMITH ($97,600)

Also on the bubble this week, he is named 3^rd on the Saints bench. Has an average of 56 so far, so he is serviceable without setting the world on fire. His job security is pretty brittle with Lyon seemingly keen to get some games into some other youngsters like Johnson, Winmar and Cripps.

OTHER OPTIONS

Hibberd and Buckley are obviously both options as well, which could be handy in the Mids, especially if you have Heppell down back at the moment. It may be a bit extreme but another way to go would to be to get Mzungu or Callinan in early, which isn’t the worst idea given the lack of options. All would make you plenty of cash.

 

RUCKS

Not many downgrades required here unless you have Vickery who has been average, or if you have J. Tippett like me (got him in case I wanted to get Petrie in) and want to see that extra cash. Only one option really:

BROC McCAULEY ($80,400)

A great bubble option at basement price. Will be useful as extra cover, especially if you have Smith in there already. Scored 86 last week to follow up his 30 – I would argue that we’ll probably see more of the 30’s, but he’ll still net you 34k if you’re going from Tippett, or a touch over 100k if you trade him for Vickery. But if you’re going to do it, it has to be now.

 

FWDS

Everyone is probably thinnest across this line given the Ins and Outs of Round 6. Franklin, Rioli, Chapman, Duncan, Pavlich, Pitt and Fyfe all miss with the MBR, and with Higgins and Richardson also out and Krakouer uncertain there will be a few doughnuts this week. Here are a few options you can downsize to:

KEIRAN HARPER ($92,500)

The Roos are in damage control and to show their members that they’re doing something about their form, they’ve turned to some youngsters for games. In comes Harper who I don’t know much about, but a quick Googling tells me he is a mid-sized forward from Eastern Rangers who likens himself to Robert Murphy. Well, hopefully he scores like Murphy because a few will be trading him in to cover C-Rich, who has been nothing short of disappointing given his pre-season form. His job security will depend entirely on his form, but I don’t see him stringing too many together.

LIAM PATRICK and STEVEN MAY ($97,600)

Patrick is tentative, named on an extended interchange, but May is lining up at CHB. As far as job security goes with the both of them it’s hard to tell, mostly because they are new players no one knows much about, and partly because Bluey likes to rotate a fair few players through his young side. Ideally, we’d like to wait until they’re on the bubble, but C-Rich and Krak are making it hard.

OTHER OPTIONS

None. No-one else below 100k is playing this week, with Sumner and Johnson both absent for the Swans this week. So if you want to get rid of Richardson or Krakouer in the forwards, that’s all you’ve got. The other option is copping a doughnut, which I’m seriously considering.

In the end, it’s your call. But be warned, it’s probably one of the most important trading decisions you’ll make all year.  Make sure you wait until the Sunday squads are up before you do anything rash. Good luck!

 

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