The A-Z of Upgrade Targets

Thanks to Thommo for sending in the following article. If you have an idea and you are keen to write an article, email warnie@dreamteamtalk.com.

Dream Team Talk chat is filled with discussion about the formation of initial Dream Team squads; which players will be the best rookies, the best gun players and the best value for money selections for 2011.  Who would have expected to be saying the name Mzungu in excitement in mid-2010?  Yet one of the most important keys to winning dreamteam is smart trading; locating those gun players who have devalued early and trading them into your team at the best time.  Buy low, sell high.  It seems simple, but who is expected to devalue and have you arranged a starting squad that will allow you to trade all of these bargain players in?  I always seem to trade too early and miss some of the truly great bargains, so this year I will attempt to plan ahead.

I have compiled an A-Z list of some of the guns I expect to drop in price; feel free to correct me if you believe I am unfairly disparaging certain players.

Ablett (GC) – The logic is simple:  When you leave the highest possession team in history to join a bottom four side, your statistics will suffer.  Ablett will continue to win the contested ball, but he will lose the huge number of uncontested possessions that Geelong like to share around.  Everybody knows he will drop in value and we will all trade him in after Round 9.  The selection of Ablett for Round 10 is as simple as selecting Swan as captain.

Barlow (Fre) – An interrupted preseason due to that terrible broken leg is likely to cause Barlow to drop in value early, but he is likely to finish the year strongly.

Cassisi (Por) – He suffered a big drop early in 2010 and may follow suit this year although there are likely to be better midfield players available around midyear.

Didak (Coll) – Tearing your pectoral muscle doesn’t help your preseason, so he will start late and slow.  A great upgrade target after Round 13, Collingwood’s final bye.

Enright (Gee) – Geelong fans hate Hawthorn, so they will truly hate that the Jordan Lewis tag showed the football world how best to neutralize Enright.  Expect most teams to play a defensive forward against Enright, meaning he will devalue early.  However when you consider Geelong’s Round 21 bye, Enright probably won’t make a good upgrade target late, even if he learns to manage a tag.

Fisher (StK) – Fisher often starts a little slowly but with Gilbert’s relocation forward, he may become the rebound king as he did in the Grand Final.  With a second bye in Round 14, Fisher may be a great upgrade target if he devalues significantly early.

Gilbert (StK) – The photographer is playing forward early, perhaps to take a few more close-ups of Reiwoldt, so he may decrease in value early.

Goodes (Syd) – There is no real reason for Goodes to devalue early, except that he often does.  A great forward upgrade if he follows his trend of starting with scores in the 80s and finishing with scores in the 100s.

Grima (NM) – An injury has derailed his preseason, but if he looks to be finding form when he returns he may be one of the top scoring defenders.

Hayes (StK) – A big game specialist, Lyon often starts Lenny’s season with reduced minutes (TOG 69% in first four rounds of 2010) and gradually increases his workload so he is hitting peak condition for the latter half of the year.  Another great upgrade target that you can rely on late in the year.

Kreuzer (Car) – This needs little explanation; knee reconstructions take time to recover from.  Hopefully Kreuzer finds his feet early as it is not uncommon for Ruckman to take a whole year to fully recover.

Lake (WB) – Another player who has suffered an interrupted preseason and will start the year late and possibly slowly.  Good value backline players are hard to find so Lake will be a popular upgrade if he devalues early.

Montagna (StK) – Despite his great durability and generally consistent scoring, Montagna did devalue midseason last year and was a great pickup for many teams in 2010.

Oakley-Nicholls (WC) – Sorry, just joking but I hope he gets a game and plays well.  High draft picks who struggle at Richmond suffer more than most.

Pavlich (Fre) – No longer the only decent player at Fremantle, Pavlich is likely to devalue with less emphasis on him.

Rischitelli (GC) – Many experts have tipped Rischitelli to receive no attention while playing alongside Ablett, but why not?  Surely coaches will aim to shut down Ablett and Rischitelli and force the kids to prove their worth.

Selwood (Gee) – Surely Selwood will cop a hard tag every game.  He is a champion and may cope with the attention, but I won’t risk selecting him, especially not when you consider Geelong’s Round 22 bye.

Tippett (Ade) – This human rollercoaster is the slowest starter in the league.  Gains momentum midseason but tends to finish well enough to be worth considering, especially with his dual-position player tag.