Cal’s Scale of Hardness 2016

hardnessscale_difficultyOf course, some teams are easier to score on than others. Nailing teams and players with great runs home could be what you need to win your league or the big prize at the end.

A picture paints a thousand words so I have made tables showing exactly which players have the best and therefore the worst runs home.

This was worked out using my cal-culator and a complex formula and excel spreadsheet filled with many pretty colours. Others will have their opinions on this, but basically, I’m right, they are wrong. Of course.

Without going into too much detail of this complex and precise system, the table on the right has been ranked in order of which teams have given up the most points. 50% of the weight in working this out comes from the last 4 weeks, which paints a picture of form and maybe any new change in game style.

The other 50% comes from what teams have given up over the entire year. This covers all bases.

Obviously, St Kilda and Essendon are stand outs. They have coughed up so many points this year and in the last four weeks making them easy targets to score on.

On the flipside, you don’t want to be crossing paths with anyone in the red zone. These teams have been in lock down mode.

hardnessscale_fixture

There you go… look at all those pretty colours.

bestrunIt’s simple to understand. This is the run home of all 18 teams and the teams they are coming up against. Alarm bells ring for Collingwood as they play 4 of the 6 red zone teams in the next 5 games. This shouldn’t make you trade out a Treloar or a Pendles, but it might just change your mind in bringing them in.

Port have three tough games coming up, but we also need to focus on the last 4 games of the year as this is Fantasy Finals time.

Take a look at Carlton’s last four games… wow! They will come home like a freight train and although they are up against the toughest team this week, they will finish fast.

The underlined games are home games for that team, but don’t be totally fooled. Take St Kilda for example. This week they play Essendon but it’s listed as the Bombers home at Etihad, which is still St Kilda’s home as well. Same in round 18 when they play the Bulldogs. Basically, the Saints have 6 out of their next 8 games at Etihad (home ground) although it’s only listed as 3.

Therefore, after adding up the ranks and cal-culating the data using the info I explained from above, these are the teams with the easiest runs and hardest runs coming up.

The Suns play just one red zone team (GWS) in their next 8 games. Great news for Ablett and maybe Hall for those who have held him or are bringing him back in. Carlton also have a nice run and as I said, they finish with a beautiful run home during Fantasy finals.

This should be used asย a guide and a resource. This will help you make 50/50 calls. Stats change every game, and although some people will be flogs and hate on this, use it as you feel fit or just enjoy the hours of work that has gone into this, to help make you a better coach from the last 2 months.
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17 Comments

  • Nice work Cal. Really informative and easy to read.

    So based off this advice, should Gaff be avoided despite his price?

    • maybe, another option would be Sam Mitchell only an extra 40k break even 60 odd.

    • Gaff could average 110 for the rest of the year. Or he could struggle with tags and quality opponents. It’s gotta be a gut call. He’s a stepping stone that should still score highly. and 100K cheaper price than other form players is a big plus.

    • If you are trading Gaff in this week (or last week) it probably means he will end up being upgraded to an uber premo later on, and find his spot at M9.
      4 of the next 5 weeks are relatively easy for Gaff, and this is when his price will be increasing.
      By the time that the difficult times come in round 21, he will be either of your field or 500K+ and ready to upgrade for someone with a nice run home

    • I am thinking of getting Gaff for the next 5 weeks and then dump after round 20. Most of my league finals are between rds 19 – 22. Was looking at Parker as well but already have Hanners & Titchell so way too risky having 3 swans mids looking at their draw.

      • Dont ever doubt the brilliance of Andrew Gaff and his superior workrate. Gaffdada gets 30 touches every week(ignore fortnight after concussion). Its his kick to handball ratio that gets him scores between 80-120. Tackling points are irrelevant because the word ‘defence’ doesnt quite make sense to Andrew. All in all, let Gaffy involved as the M9. Stats for dayz!

  • I’ve been trying to find the easiests runs for making decisions on trades, but couldn’t be stuffed putting so much time into it.

    My hat goes off to you Calvin. Break out year for you son.

  • who would you prefer to bring in this week, montagna or smitchell?

  • Fantastic research Calvin. Lots of quality thought has gone into this – love how it’s presented such an easy understand format – thank you from the DT community.

    Only side angle I’d toss out there is: “Does an easy run actually impact a top premo’s score?”. For some, of course, you’d rather they had an easy run than a hard string of games. But on the flip-side, I’d argue some of the big dogs actually thrive on playing the big games, and they take the foot off the throttle in the easy games when their team can get the job done without them carrying the load.

    • Form over fixtures every time. But this is very helpful when trying to decide between 2 in form players.

    • I’d agree re: Mitch-5.

      Just because teams are hard to score against doesn’t always stop 1 or 2 player going large. On the flipside, having an opponent that gives up a lot of DT points doesn’t always equate to guns scoring huge personnel scores.

      Still, very interesting read.

  • Who should I trade out Petracca or Davis ? for Silvagni

  • Thoughts on Sumner – Silvagni and DBJ – Simpson

  • I was planning to bring in Gaff this week, but reading this great article (thanks Cal) I am now wondering whether Sam Mitchell would make more sense long term. For $50k extra I would get a 10 point better average, an easier draw and Collingwood in Round 23 (the grand final ride). Gaff’s excellent score on the weekend was only against Essendon and in Rounds 21-23, finals rounds, he has his 3 toughest matches. Sloane will wait until next week. People’s thoughts please?

    • The Pies are tagging with Greenwood currently so Mitchell maybe targeted come GF.

  • Thanks Calvinator

    Maybe the reason behind your HUGE improvement this year is the great research you’ve personally done๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘
    Unfairly maligned over the season, to share this with everyone is very much appreciated
    Thanks to everyone who puts in a lot of time and effort to make this site what is
    Good luck with the run home

  • Greene or Stevie J… Neale or Sloane..??????