Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 13

The bye rounds are done and dusted so now we can finally look to the business end of the season. Unfortunately suspended pair Stefan Martin and Buddy Franklin and the injured Rory Sloane will cause a few headaches for coaches but there are couple of bargain replacements available. Sidebottom, Selwood and Barlow are cheap premiums capable of something special and McKernan and Steele are lower priced options that can give you a big score.

At this stage of the game, taking a punt or two can seriously pay off. For those that don’t mind living on the edge consider Jack Macrae, Max Gawn and Rory Laird all of whom are owned by less than 5% of coaches in Fantasy and in Dreamteam. All three are affordable and playing excellent football which should continue in the short to medium term.

Let’s get into the rooks shall we…

 

Three Gamers 

Kreuz

KEEPERS

Popular big man Matthew Kreuzer (Ruc. $297,000, 12 be AF. $351,700, 48 be DT) enjoyed beating up the depleted Gold Coast Suns on Sunday. Tractor had an impressive 19 possessions, 8 marks, 22 hitouts, 4 tackles and 109 Fantasy points. As good as he was, Kreuzer is pretty darn expensive for coaches at this time of year and with Shaun McKernan showing promise, I just can’t recommend trading him in. If you’ve already got him, well done.

You know a kid has talent when they’re getting tagged in their 13th career game! Patrick Cripps (Mid. $440,000, 49 be AF. $452,400, 44 be DT) had Andrew Raines as his shadow on the weekend but he took it in his stride and managed to still have a significant impact in the game. He scored 84 Fantasy points with the tag and he should have a free reign against the Dogs this weekend. Hold him, it’s a no brainer.

Toby McLean (Fwd. $230,000, 11 be AF. $160,600, -57 be DT) was superb against the Saints in Round 13 and how he didn’t win this week’s NAB Rising Star award is beyond me. McLean was used at half forward and finished with 20 possessions (80% efficiency), 1 tackle, 1 goal and 81 Fantasy points. McLean’s pace and ability to run all day suits the Bulldogs style of play and I can see him holding his spot for a few weeks yet. Very appealing in Dreamteam this week given his price and breakeven and he should score between 60 and 70 Fantasy points most rounds.

DON’T PANIC

Adam Saad (Def/Mid. $351,000, 65 be AF. $340,100, 44 be DT) scored just 64 Fantasy points in Round 13 but I wouldn’t make him a trade priority this week. His breakevens are respectable and with other issues (for most) having bigger consequences, I’d hold him.

Joel Hamling, 63 (Def. $206,000, 9 be AF. $188,600, 0 be DT), Hugh Beasley, 57 (Def. $158,000, -2 be AF. $137,000, -24 be DT), Andrew Boston, 52 (Mid. $266,000, 12 be AF. $240,300, -18 be DT), Elliott Kavanagh, 24 (Mid. $216,000, 21 be AF. $189,700, 17 be DT) and Alex Pearce, 19 (Def. $186,000, 21 be AF. $181,000, 9 be DT) all were below par but their breakevens are lower than / close to their averages so you shouldn’t lose out if you hold them. Note that all players here are benchwarmers only.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 13 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate.

I don’t know about you but I can’t take Adam Oxley’s (Def. $405,000, 67 be AF. $416,500, 83 be DT) yoyo scores anymore. He was red vested after some poor disposal efficiency (56%) but did score 63 Fantasy points from three quarters. Ox has been one of the best rooks this season but I believe he has topped out in price and it’s time to upgrade him if you can. It could come back to haunt you but remember, Oxley is not a top 6 defender.

 

Two Gamers 
McKernan

Shaun McKernan (Ruc/Fwd. $229,000, -8 be AF. $248,400, -10 be DT) was absolutely awesome on the weekend. The big unit played as Essendon’s number one ruckman and his presence on the ball and up forward saw him named in Essendon’s best players for the game. He finished with 21 possessions, 5 marks, 18 hitouts, 3 tackles, 1 goal and 97 Fantasy points. It was a four-quarter effort from McKernan; at no point did he fade out of the game. As a dual position forward / ruckman with optimum job security, he has overtaken Mitch Clark as my R3 going forward. Trade him in if especially if you own the suspended Stefan Martin.

Red vested pair, Kane Lambert (Fwd/Mid. $120,000, 24 be AF. $102,900, -14 be DT) and Shaun Edwards (Def. $189,000, 31 be AF. $124,600, -16 be DT) had stinkers in their games scoring just 21 and 8 Fantasy points respectively. When I found out on Friday before lockout that Lambert wouldn’t wear green, I got greedy and brought him in instead of the planned McKernan…joke is on me! I wouldn’t trade in these two based on their last performance.

Fringe players, Darren Minchington, 30 (Fwd. $220,000, 26 be AF. $261,500, 55 be DT) and Jack Hannath, 41 (Ruc/Fwd. $190,000, 24 be AF. $222,000, 37 be DT) weren’t convincing in their games. Avoid them at all costs.

Playing in the NEAFL, cheap big man Keegan Brooksby (Ruc. $161,000, -6 be AF. $102,900, -55 be DT) bagged five goals in a best on ground performance. Conveniently, Charlie Dixon injured his ankle on Sunday and is expected to miss Round 14. I prefer you picked up McKernan but if you can’t afford him then look at Brooksby.

 

One Gamers

O'Brien

Nick O’Brien (Mid. $130,000, 9 be AF. $124,600 DT) avoided the green vest but couldn’t stamp his authority against the Hawks on Saturday. Playing in the midfield, he finished with 15 possessions at 87% efficiency but had just 1 mark, 1 tackle and an uninspiring 44 Fantasy points. I’d love to guarantee O’Brien’s job security but I can’t with Zaharakis and potentially Heath Hocking to return for Essendon this week. Note also that he has played just 6 games in his four years at the Bombers. A risky pick in my opinion!

Zac Jones, 22 (Def. $139,000, 28 be AF. $156,600 DT) and Nick Holman, 37 (Def. $168,000, 27 be AF. $180,600 DT) copped the green vest in their first games for 2015. I suspect Jones will be dropped for his 50m penalty that arguably cost Sydney the game. Holman on the other hand was active against the Suns, gathering 8 possessions and scoring 37 Fantasy points from just 23% time on ground. I wouldn’t pick up Holman at that price though given his vest risk.

 

Please note that if I haven’t mentioned a rookie priced player above, it means I don’t rate them. Remember rooks are classified as players under $250,000 in Fantasy and/or Dreamteam.

 

Bye Round Sleepers

There are a couple of well-rested rooks that you need to consider this week. Sam Colquhoun (Def. $248,000, 14 be AF. $197,700, -25 be DT) and Jack Steele (Fwd/Mid. $249,000, 10 be AF. $117,900 DT) are expensive as far as Fantasy goes but both have impressed in their matches this season. I rate these youngsters highly for job security and scoring potential so feel free to trade them in. Note that Colquhoun is on the bubble this week for Dreamteam.

With a bit of luck, Trent Dumont (Mid. $216,000, 34 be AF. $230,300, 64 be DT) and Billy Stretch (Mid. $212,000, 20 be AF. $176,600, -16 be DT) should also be named to play this weekend. However, don’t be surprised if Jake Kolodjashnij (Def. $126,000, 14 be AF. $124,600 DT) and Rory Lobb (Ruc. $173,000, 24 be AF. $176,100 DT) are dropped.

 

Keep Your Eye On

Ben Reid

Ben Reid (Fwd. $146,000, 27 be AF. $222,000 DT) – It’s not everyday that an All-Australian defender is available to us at rookie prices! Reid has had a long layoff with multiple soft tissue problems however, he’s built form and fitness in the VFL for over a month now. There is no doubt that he’s in the Pies best 22 and for a player that averaged 72 Fantasy points back in 2013, Reid is pretty hard to ignore. He did cop a knock to the calf on the weekend so if he misses this week then he should be good for the week after.

Matt Scharenberg (Def. $182,000, 33 be AF. $124,600 DT) – This future star is ready to make an impact for the Pies. Scharenberg has displayed his class in the VFL for some time now and on the weekend his stat line read 14 kicks, 4 handballs, 4 marks, 3 tackles and 73 Fantasy points. If Scharenberg does come in, I fear that it will be at the expense of Oxley! Unless you’re desperate, I’d wait and see what he produces on debut before trading him in.

 

Feel free to ask me a question below and don’t forget to add me on Twitter @JeppaDT for all things Fantasy and more. Happy trading!

74 Comments

  • Just an FYI: Nick Holman has been killing it in the VFL racking up big numbers every week. With Barker’s direction turning to youth he’ll likely play a fair chunk of the remaining season.

    • Yep agreed but he’s a little expensive for the likely return and vest risk IMO

  • Hey Jeppa…
    QUESTION:

    Should i go:

    1. Heppel > Montanga and Oxley > Colquhoun… and have 138k spare to upgrade?

    OR

    2. Heppel > Montanga and Oxley to Byrne… and have 365k spare to upgrade?

    OR

    3. Wallis > Montanga and Oxley > Scharenberg?

    OR

    4. Heppel/Wallis > any other good premo and Oxley/Saad to any other good rookie

    NOTE: Option 2, 3, 4 will mean i will have to field Hamling… but it will leave me with way more money to upgrade..

    Which option would you choose??

    • Why do you want to get rid of Heppell? He has a high ceiling, high basement and is surely a top 10 midfielder. Montagna is running into a tough draw for the rest of the year as well. I don’t like any of the trades. Find a way to upgrade Oxley by trading down another rookie, preferably on bench.

    • New trade options please. KEEP HEPPELL.

    • Ox to Calquhoun should free up some cash for you. If you don’t need to fix other areas of the team, I would upgrade Wallis. I have Wallis and Heppell in my team as well and look to get rid of Wallis next week.

  • Krakouer->McLean and go Brooksby-> Mckernan next week or go Krakouer->Mckernan this week and likely forget about McLean

  • Pretty stuck here, looking for some opinions if thats cool…

    I’m trading V’berg and Saad (my DEF is pretty much set for a while now) – Who do I bring in, with DPP’s I need FWD’s

    1. Dusty & Lambert – Meaning Dale starts (risky)
    2. Ziebell & Steele – With Steele starting alongside Swan, Gray, Titch, Bont and Ziebell

    I really want Dusty, but I think the 2nd option is less of a risk

    • i think option 2 is the more solid trade. but do you already have mckernan? another great fwd rookie under 200k

      • I don’t yet, it was a third option, but I’ve been let down by so many Bombers this year, I’m steering clear!

    • option 2

  • which of hamling and beasley do you think has better JS?

    • Probably Hamling.

      I’ve had him since round 1, so I may be biased, but he’s putting in some solid displays. See no reason to drop him

      • 2x40s and 2x60s is not solid, also $80k in 13 rounds is a bad call. not the type of advice to be giving imo.

        • Hamling has only played the last 4 games, gone up in value at least $20k a round, is predicted to keep rising. Played his role every week thus good JS. I’ll take him on the bench any day Jeppa.

    • Beasley

  • Great read jeppa, does anyone know a midfielder I can get under 490k is it worth picking up barlow or jelwood? Rocky not playing so limits options, I was thinking towards swallow.

    • Assuming you already have Cripps and Wallis?

      Tom Bell has been a fantastic PoD for me, he’s at 490, and Cotchin is in the same area, playing great at the moment, with a decent run.

      • I got Bell a few weeks back in desperation when half my list was injured. He’s been great. I got him as a stop gap but now I view him as a keeper.

      • i have had bell since rd 1 and although he has made a $100k and provided some good scores he is not a keeper, you have missed the boat with him.

    • Use some DPP action and get a keeper in Laird in your backline?

  • Nice work as always Jeppa.
    Do you think Oxley might get dropped this week, or if not have high vest potential?
    Was going to go Sloane to Simpson DPP Newnes to mid and Clark to McKernan but might have to rethink.

  • What about Orazio Fantasia??

  • Great article Jeppa! Which two would you pick out of McKernan, Colquhoun, Steele, Kreuzer given I have Stefan Martin?

  • I’ve never read anyone talking about Anthony Miles on DTT.
    What do you guys think is he a valid prem option as a mid?

  • Krakouer->Mckernan this week IMO

  • Great read as usual Jeppa, is there any news on Lever, I’ve held him a while now in RDT but have one upgrade left to do. Don’t like having Pearce or Edwards on field and Lever doing nothing.

  • Cheers Jeppa

    Time to move Edwards on now he has topped out… I mean, his BE is 4 times what he scored last week!

  • 2 quick questions guys:

    Picked up Jack Steele in free agency on elite, what do people think he will average??

    Also what is happening to Sidebottom!? Will he be back to his best soon??

    • Jack could average anywhere from 70-95 so could be a decent acquisition in elite, as for sidey he’s a proven gun just not getting centre bounce time, like Barlow experienced earlier in the year, should come good tbh

      • Steele is a tackling machine. 20 to 30 points from that every week before he gets a possession. The big issue is job security.

  • Hey Jeppa, Is Ben Reid a good option this week?

    Is Reid a better option than Steele if the 100k was used to upgrade to Goddard instead of Laird?

  • another solid read jepp. good work. SamQ comes in for the chubs!

  • If Fantasia is gonna be out for a few weeks i might go Krakouer -> McKernan and then next week downgrade maybe Schade and go Oxley to Hodge…thoughts?

  • Who would you choose first between Steele & McKernan as F6?

  • Jeppa. Which one out of Colquhon, Hamling and Beasley for D6 for a few weeks until I generate enough $$ to upgrade them?

  • Steele or Colquhon??

  • Which 2 out of Steele, Colquhon, or McKernan?
    Whichever I don’t get I will plan to get next week
    Colquhon will be D7 however Steele/McKernan will be F6

    • well you can’t have steele and mckernan at f6. Mckernan will be very handy with ruck and great js but steele should score better. Colquhoun would be a great D7, hope that helps.

  • What’s happened to Byrne? I read a tweet recently that said something about him going back to Ireland. Is that right? I see he’s back on Carlton’s injury list though as a test…? Anyone got any insights?

    • Due back to the VFL this weekend according to the Injury Report Video on the Carlton Website.

  • I am bringing in Mckernan over Steele only because of his ruck / fwd ability.

    However I still need to move Sloane on.

    I have plenty of cash, so should I go best available? Pendles, Fyfe, Monty etc.

    Or take the value, and grab Taylor Adams?

    • I think it’s time to get the big guns in so I’ve gone Sloane > Fyfe.

      Sideways for my other trade of Clark > McKernan to cover Stef for 2 weeks.

      • Me too.

        Although am just a little worried about cash, with all the genuine cash-cows done. The extra 100k is tempting. Its a tough decision.

        • Fortunately I’ll still have $353k in the bank for upgrades next week, but cash generation beyond that is looking poor, I agree!

  • I’ve dealt with my Buddy Franklin problem.
    However i have 1 trade left and want to know who to get out out of Tom Mitchell, Sinclair, Duggan or Dumont

  • Hamling has only played the last 4 games, gone up in value $20K a game, predicted value to keep rising and does his job each week thus good JS.

  • Jeppa, you didn’t mention Thurlow…Hold or Fold? I am thinking of folding on Saad this week and holding Thurlow, because he will be on the field…

    • ..add Rich to that equation, might have to trade THurlow in order to get one of mundy or mcveigh

  • Hey Jeppa!
    I’m holding onto Martin and using McKernan as cover.
    I’m wanting to trade out McCarthy but who to? Options are Goddard, Dahlhaus or Adams.
    Would be good to have some cash from the Adams trade but would like a premo!
    Also should I hang onto Krak or trade out Schade (for JSteele)
    Thanks in advance!

    • get goddard, ben reid should play so if you trade out krak I would get him.

  • Nice work Jeppa :) Always a good read.

    $173,000 in the bank. Currently sitting 27th Overall

    DEF: Hodge, Mundy, McVeigh, Newnes, Ibbotson, Hamling ( R.Smith, J.Kolo )
    MID: Fyfe, Pendles, Parker, Beams, Treloar, Barlow, Wallis, Cripps ( Amon, Dumont )
    RUCK: Jacobs, Goldstein ( Cox, Holmes )
    FWDS: Swan, Gray, Dusty, T.Mitchell, Franklin, Ziebell ( Byrne, Lambert )

    Which trades look better:
    1. Franklin > J.Steele & Amon > Boyd
    2. Franklin > McKernan & Dumont/Amon > Boyd ?
    3. Something Else ??

  • Are these trades good??

    Wallis > Mckernan (via Steele dpp)

    and

    Glenn > Knight

    These trades leave 327k for upgrades next week..

    Thoughts??

  • Think McK in for Clark
    Thinking Coq in for N.Brown

  • Is there any hope Nankervis plays two weeks running? Was one of my starting spuds who has miraculously bestowed upon me his beauty and love to cover for Stef while I get my team finished, however, next week if he misses I’m 100% copping a zero since it’s pointless dumping Stef for one game. To what level of a deranged self delusion is wishing he’ll keep his spot when Tippet gets back?

  • who is the best defender downgrade for this week?
    cheers

  • thought on leuenberger at 233k at D6 for 2 weeks whilst martin is out? As number 1 ruck, he’s gotta be good for at least a 70 which should get his price up and can then be traded