Heritier Lumumba – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Heritier Lumumba
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Defender/Midfield
AFL Fantasy: $402,000
AFL Dream Team: $401,000
Bye Round: Round 13
2014 Average: 71
2014 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 81

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Why should I pick him?

Did someone say more midfield time!? Yep, the common preseason catchphrase applies to Lumumba (source). Do you believe it? You should! Melbourne has a severe lack of outside midfielders that can use the ball well and Harry would fit in nicely on a wing in my opinion. Coaches should also note that with the Dee’s defensive game plan, there’ll be plenty of opportunities for a rejuvenated Lumumba to get on the end of cheap +6’s in any running midfield role.

It’s no secret that Heritier had a falling out with Buckley in his final year at Collingwood and his on field performances were below par as a result. Now under the guidance of ‘Messiah Roos’ expect significant improvement from Lumumba on last season. His potential has many Fantasy coaches watching him closely.

Lumumba is priced at a 71 average. If he starts the season well and scores an achievable 80+ in the early rounds then he’ll earn owners a cool $60,000 (approx.). With the Dees having the Round 13 bye you could easily offload him if things aren’t working out. Low risk is smart planning!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

There is so much love for Lumumba this preseason but I highly doubt he will live up to the hype. Footwire.com tells me that Harry has a pretty poor season average when it comes to Fantasy…

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His career best Fantasy season was in 2013 with an average of 87.7. His 62.1 and 71 averages surrounding that year are a huge concern. I don’t know about you but I like my premo defenders averaging well into the 90’s!

At Melbourne, Lumumba won’t have Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Swan, Beams, etc. feeding him easy outside ball and taking a tagger or two. I suspect some teams will lock down on Harry this season given that he is one of few Demons that can run, carry and create from half back/wing. There will definitely be a few sub 50 scores along the way so don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Outside players like Lumumba that typically play backward of centre don’t get into the thick of the action. Goals and tackles are healthy boosts for Fantasy scores but Lumumba is hindered significantly in these areas. He kicked just 3 goals in 2014, averaged 2.6 tackles per game and given that his best is arguably past him, I doubt he’ll improve on these numbers this season.

So now that we have ruled out Lumumba as a top 6 defender, why spend circa $400,000 for a short term option!? You’re better off picking one of Ibbotson, Vlaustin or Henderson and saving a heap of money for pretty much the same, if not better, output. Remember it’s all about value in the early stages of Fantasy and Dreamteam.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK – Many would agree that Lumumba is a very handy Fantasy player but he’s not the cheap premo that we should all be locking in come Round 1. Inconsistent form across his career is a key indicator that he should not be touched. With all that said, I still expect an average in the low 80’s if that tickles your fancy.

I probably could have given him a Queen rating given the lack of decent defenders this season but with a very young Melbourne brigade around him, the potential of more ‘midfield time’ and returning to career best form means little. Those that pick him have more faith than I do.

Are you going to pick Lumumba?

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36 Comments

  • I’m really unsure on this one. I don’t know if the 100k to get him to a hibberd is better on him or making a rookie that has low job security into an underpriced mid pricer.

    My thoughts are Lumumba and Whitecross (if he playes) or Hibberd and what ever rookie pokes his head out during the NAB trials. This is probably my biggest doubt in my team at the moment, the backline is really strange this year.

    • Do you not rate Ibbotson or Ricky Henderson instead!?

      • Already have Ibbotson and Henderson is on my radar, but I just don’t feel comfortable with having him in my structure just as yet.

        • Henderson and Ibbotson are essentially in the same boat as Lumumba in relation to their scoring history i.e. only one decent year. I don’t know why there is so much talk about any of them! It’s called mid-priced madness for a reason! These three aren’t even really mid-priced either. Far better for finding a reliable defender and finding a rookie who will increase in price more significantly.

  • Nice poll. Andy Murray. Haha.

    Oh… great article too, Jep!

  • He was the very first player I selected, and hasn’t even crossed my mind for scrapping until now, but this has given me things to think about. While he’s definitely not a top 6 defender, I think I’ll back him to average closer to that 87 than the 80 mentioned here, which is more than good enough for a few weeks. He started last season with a 5 round average of 91 and a 6 round of 89, so if he can back that up he’ll be in a great place to upgrade, although he’s pretty much a game of Russian roulette waiting for that 40 to ruin everything. The lack of quality feeding it to him does make me quite interested in freeing up the 60k to change him to Newnes, but I like how stagnant the Dees are so hopefully it’ll fall in his lap through tedious Roosing frequently enough.

  • Nice poll Jep.
    This pretentious sook could be $200k and I would still prefer Andy Murray -might be heart over head but I could never pick him (or Conca but that’s a different discussion)
    Vlaustin for a few less dollars at this stage for me – but depends on what role he looks like getting this year

  • Great article Jeppa – exactly what DoDT should be about – I had him locked in until now – you make some bloody good points.

    Question for you – what are you basing the price rise of $60K on? From what I can see on the AF website, the formula for calculating price rises has changed and it wont be as simple as in past years using a rolling 3 week average x MN x some other variance that only a maths nerd knows??

    If your estimate is simply what we have known before, thats cool – it just means we can disregard that comment

    • Hi Pete,

      Current players with an 82 av. from last season are priced about $460K. It wont be a rapid increase in price but he should push to $460,000ish if he maintains a 82ish by bout Round 8.

      I dont know the Fantasy formula i.e. its not as simple as DT’s formula (75% x old price) + (25% x Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

  • hey everyone I have made a league for people who finished in the top 30k last year just want it to be competitive plz join the code is :SCE76EH6

  • haha i hate Andy Murray!

  • I disagree with this article personally. I find it hard to see how you can suggest his best is behind him? He’s only 28… In 2013 he had his best season averaging 87 (Call it a late breakout year) and had it not been for all the drama surrounding him and his relationship with Collingwood/Buckley I see no reason as to why he couldn’t back that up. With a change of club, a much better coach and a gameplan involving a lot of possession, I have little doubt over Lumumba getting back to his 87 average and maybe even tipping over the 90.

    • I don’t think you can have “little doubt” over him getting to 87. he’s done it once in his career… people have good years all the time and never live up to it again, especially defenders.

      • He was averaging 89 up until round 6 last season. It wasn’t until after that where all the Collingwood/Buckley bullshit happened. I think this article was done purely off Jeppa’s personal opinion, and little research. Nothing against Jeppa at all, usually a fan of his work. Just strongly disagree with this write-up.

        • Jawdan,
          Plenty of research went into this.
          A player that hardly kicks goals and is not a big tackler will find it tough to score well in Fantasy. He’ll get plenty more attention from the opposition than he did at Collingwood. I think my predicted av of 81 is fair and reasonable.

    • I’m inclined to agree you to some degree. The average age of last years top 10 defenders (top 10 by average) was 28 yrs. It’s possible he could push his average up to low-mid 80’s depending on his role within Melbourne’s high possession game and the position he is yet to fill. Decent mid-half back TOG and he could rack up some cheap points, but i think 90+ is a far stretch.

      In saying that… he won’t be in my team come round 1.

  • Great article, but there’s 3 counter-arguments.
    1. He’s round 13, and arguably the best available. Shaw, Higgins, and Waters are always suspended or injured.
    2. Melbourne plays a very heavy possession game – meaning they share the ball a lot which equals more points, particularly for Heritier who appears to be playing a rebound defence/wing role.
    3. Why is his best ‘arguably’ behind him? Especially if the move involves a positional change?

    • Hey Sammy,
      I have mentioned points 1 & 2 in why should i pick him.
      If he averages 90+ this season give me a call and you can say i told you so. With his tackle and goal numbers, I doubt he will but Ive been wrong before.

  • No women allowed in my team. Pass.

  • I wouldn’t pick him as a matter of principle. “Complicated history of sexual abuse” he says after going awol for a week. Give me a break. Total imbecile and embarrassment to the code.

  • League for anyone, lots of spots left

    7VVWSP62

    Hope ya join

    Cheers:)

  • As a Pie fan it’s awesome that he’s gone. Nearly cost us in the 2010 GF when Milne destroyed him in the last quarter. Scared of collisions, the master of the short step. Thinks he’s bigger than the team, the game, life itself. He’ll be about as useful at Melbourne as Mitch Clark.

  • Hey Jeppa, great article as always! I was just wondering when your Jeppas Juniors articles will commence this year? Looking forward to more great reads keep up the good work! :)

  • Ok no worries cant wait!

  • The Prince will have the last laugh and average 90.

  • I would’ve thought Melbourne had enough to be embarrassed about already.The Melbourne players must have been absolutely spewing they recruited this bloke. Now they have to be concerned that what they say in the changerooms fits within this idiot’s narrow range of acceptability otherwise he’ll throw his toys out of the cot. What an embarrassment he must be to the Melbourne supporters.

    • Yep, Melbourne supporter right here. Embarrassed? Nope. Embarrassed for you and your need to throw stones at others. Looking forward to his best year yet and him averaging 85-90 points per game.

  • WOW! Great article. He was a lock until just now. Is it worth having Newnes and then hendo’ Seedsman and upgrade Lumumba to Ibbotson/waters etc.. Plus, having c Pearce and whitecross. Or, should I try and upgrade him to smith or hibbo, or just keep him