The Fantasy Analyzer- Downgrade Delirium

In past seasons of AFL Fantasy (or DreamTeam as it was previously known),we have had two weeks to look at the rookies free of price change before bringing them into our squads. Of course this year the prices have been moving after just one game, a frightening thought to the most dedicated of fantasy coaches. So how should we counteract this rule change? Should we refuse to pay the heightened dollar for a rook, or should we not look to skimp so much?

Rookies That Have Grown in Value

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Nick Robertson has been one such rookie who has already undergone two price rises

Nick Robertson, Tom Cutler and Matt Crouch are primary candidates for this category. The Lions Robertson has accumulated an extra $21,448 to his price tag, whilst Cutler and Crouch have added $11,000 and $80,497 respectively. In laymen’s terms, especially with Crouch, we have missed the boat. Last season I would’ve suggested that we wait and try and find cheaper rooks who are about to play their third game of league football, but that was in a season where we had two games before the prices began to boom! We have no similar waiting period this year and thus it’s much more difficult to bring in a rookie who hasn’t changed in price. That’s the main con, losing cash for future upgrades, but some would suggest the pro’s outweigh the con’s when considering a trade between these two rookie categories. For one, bringing in a Robertson allows us to have a general understanding of his job security. We also have two scores to assess and determine what we expect his future scoring output to provide. These simple reasonings just go to show that both sides of the coin must be considered…

Rookies yet to Debut

Honeychurch

Mitch Honeychurch has yet to play a game and thus comes at an absolute bargain basement price!

This is where we get the greatest bang for our buck. The likes of Honeychurch, Lennon, Salem and Morabito fall into this category and if they’re selected in weeks to come, the expectation is that they’ll increase in value from the get-go. In stark contrast to what I previously mentioned with the rookies that had grown in value, we don’t have any ability to assess future job security, scoring potential and sub risk. This might not be especially worrisome later in the year, where the best coaches will have 1 strong bench contributor on each line to ward off any potential late out’s and the like. Unfortunately for us fantasy coaches, we are far from this stage and can’t really look much past the byes right at the moment. No matter what sort of position you’re in bye structure wise, if you pick up a Honeychurch and find out two weeks later that he has been ousted for the Round 8 clash, you can count another donut to your bye structure over that week. Furthermore the lack of job security can hurt your earning potential, something which isn’t a likely issue for owners of rookies who have strong job security.

 Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, determining the gamble or risk of any one move differentiates from coach to coach. Both strategies are fraught with danger. Bring in Honeychurch and you may have just managed to bring in the strongest scorer of the second half of the season in Dane Swan, but the young Dog may be dropped just a week later heading into the hazardous byes. Get Robertson and have a strong rookie who maintains a strong output, but lose points on the difference of a Griffen to a Swan. So let me know how you want to play it. Are you a risk taker or are you willing to settle for less and sleep easy at night? The floor (or poll) is yours!

 

AFL Fantasy: Trade or Hold Zorko?

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Remember to give me a follow on twitter @B_Gogos, where I’m talking fantasy football 24/7. Good luck with your side heading into Anzac Day! Should be a ripping day of football and I for one can’t wait!

29 Comments

  • Price rises after one game.

    Man, I wish I had have gone with Fantasy this year.

    Kicking myself.

    • Why as RDT is the bees knees and Fantasy sucks. Having said that my team is going the best in supercoach. Its 5 weeks in and I still have not looked at my Fantasy Leagues as I have no interest.

      • think he’s taking the piss

        • No not taking the piss as the old way of waiting 2 weeks for price rises is the way to go. Currently my Fantasy Team will be full of premos after the byes so it will be boring thereafter as most teams will be similar by then. At least with RDT and limited to 30 trades a fair bit more strategy is involved.

    • Actually the one game price change rule is fine. Thats not the issue with fantasy.

  • Mithcell or Rocky

  • Wrong section mate but id go rocky if you can afford it. Hes killing it at the moment.

  • Hey guys, should I trade Watson or Tyson for M Crouch? Watson has a break even of 136 and Tyson has a break even of 71 or something and could easily get that. He has 1 bad game. If I trade Watson, I can put Tyson and Dunstan on my bench and start Polec and M Crouch

  • Thing is, Crouch may have 200k left in him

    • Yeah, I just can’t let him go when he has a negative breakeven and pumped out a 110 in 3 quarters

      • on second thoughts I’m probably going ellis to robertson (named on the ball, cheaper, didn’t get a cramped hammy) and then langdon to mcveigh

  • What about Mitch Hallahan? By the way great segment Benny!

    • Cheers bud! Hallahan is hard to pick because it’s only been a quarter of footy. I’d suggest if he can have a good one on Sunday the role is his till Shiels comes back (Y)

  • What about Mitch hallahan from Hawthorn?

  • Tyson > Honeychurch
    Ellis > Hallahan
    then 2 premo upgrades next week?

    Struggling to choose

  • Yeo>Cutler
    Tyson> Swan

    Can’t decide between playing Cutler or Langdon. Cutler should have more scoring potential against st kilda whereas I don’t know how Langdon will cope with Anzac Day, any one else’s thought would be greatly appreciated :)

  • Thoughts on trades:
    Mitchell to Fasolo.
    Shieks to Crouch or field Lloyd for Mitchell and go Tyson to swan or Ellis to Robertson.

  • Who do you think will play games through the bye rounds out of hallahan, O’Rourke or Honeychurch?

  • honeychurch

  • Can’t decide between hibberd or mcveigh ??

  • Will we know if Honeychurch/Crouch are playing before final lockout?

  • I’m ok with waiting for the second week, as we saw with Hallahan, and even Lloyd, the very first weeks gains are always stunted a bit since they’re playing off a BE of 30 odd,if they happen to have a big game the price rise is likely to be manageable, and the second week boost will be bigger even if they underperform. Lloyds 70 for instance made 10k more than his 107, so in a sense cashing in on a big performance isn’t dead, just weakened a little.

  • Well said matt… I agree mate

  • The only rook I would consider downgrading to without playing of the ones remaining is Nathan Bock with his good JS and good scoring potential for a rook, he’s the only one I’d consider to take without playing. The others I’ll just wait and see