Hindsight is a wonderful thing – part two

selwood

At the end of Round 10 I wrote an article showing how you could put together a team that would:

–          Be leading the competition by a staggering 2,579 points
–          Have over $350,000 in the kitty
–          Have only undertaken 2 legitimate ‘upgrades’
–          Not have Dane Swan, Dean Cox or Buddy Franklin at any point during the season
–          Have won the highest scoring team of the round 7 times in the first 10 rounds!!!

So, how has that team performed over the next 10 rounds to the end of Round 20 – well it has gone from strength to strength! The results speak for themselves!

TEAM AT END OF ROUND 10:

DEFENDERS           

B Goddard      $513,400
B Houli           $445,900
M Hibberd      $451,300
S Burgoyne     $400,000
C Enright        $457,900
N Vlastuin       $370,700
D Terlich         $346,200
R Laird            $266,100

MIDFIELDERS        

G Ablett          $612,300
B Stanton        $512,900
M Barlow        $535,300
A Swallow      $461,500
R Griffen        $488,100
R Douglas       $495,900
J Watson         $502,600
J O’Meara        $403,900
M Jones           $344,100
M Evans          $293,000

RUCKS         

M Kruezer       $353,500
T Goldstein     $425,300
M Blicavs        $272,300
M Daw            $239,700

FORWARDS

N Reiwoldt     $496,500
J Lewis            $466,200
J Bartel            $499,000
M Stokes         $456,600
J Kennedy       $401,500
S Johnson        $562,600
S Dwyer          $318,400
B Macaffer      $323,400

Total Worth     $12,716,100

Cap Left          $350,900

Points in front 2,579

Round 11:

Trades: S Burgoyne, M Evans out, Heppell, T Mitchell in
Captain: Tom Mitchell
Emergencies: Bye round – Best 18 plays
Cap left: $486,400
Weekly Score: 1913
Total Score: 25767
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2128
Highest ‘real’ season score: 23154
Points in front: 2631

Round 12:

Trades: Hibberd, Swallow out, Ibbotson, Ebert in
Captain: Brendan Goddard
Emergencies: Bye round – Best 18 plays
Cap left: $520,100
Weekly Score: 1911
Total Score: 27678
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2185
Highest ‘real’ season score: 25218
Points in front: 2460
(note: This would be the only week that the ‘real’ leader would actually gain ground)

Round 13:

Trades: Douglas, Watson out, O’Keefe, Hansen in (through Bartel DPP)
Captain: R Griffen
Emergencies: Bye round – Best 18 plays
Cap left: $717,500
Weekly Score: 2047
Total Score: 29725
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2101
Highest ‘real’ season score: 27014
Points in front: 2711

Round 14:

Trades: Houli, M Jones out, R Henderson, Boak in
Captain: Brad Ebert
Emergencies: Vlastuin, Heppell, Barlow, T Mitchell, Blicavs, Daw, Johnson, Lewis
Cap left: $708,900
Weekly Score: 2371 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 32096
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2360
Highest ‘real’ season score: 29120
Points in front: 2976

Round 15:

Trades: Bartel, Stokes out, Swan(!), Cloke in
Captain: Dane Swan
Emergencies: Vlastuin, Laird, Ablett, O’Meara, Goldstein, Daw, Reiwoldt, Johnson
Cap left: $673,700
Weekly Score: 2378
Total Score: 34474
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2480
Highest ‘real’ season score: 31258
Points in front: 3216

Round 16:

Trades: Vlastuin, Macaffer out, H Shaw, Rockliff in
Captain: Steve Johnson
Emergencies:   Terlich, Enright, Ebert, O’Meara, Blicavs, Daw, Hansen, Dwyer
Cap left: $553,300
Weekly Score: 2,379
Total Score: 36853
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2482
Highest ‘real’ season score: 33495
Points in front: 3358

Round 17:

Trades: Ibbotson, Stanton out, Ellis, J Selwood in
Captain: Gary Ablett
Emergencies: Enright, Shaw, Boak, Mitchell, Blicavs, Daw, Cloke, Johnson
Cap left: $685,300
Weekly Score: 2517
Total Score: 39370
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2521
Highest ‘real’ season score: 35834
Points in front: 3536

Round 18:

Trades: O’Meara, Dwyer out, Ward, Cox in
Captain: Tom Rockliff (Roy’s Boy!)
Emergencies: Terlich, Laird, Barlow, Ebert, Blicavs, Daw, Reiwoldt, Kennedy
Cap left: $670,200
Weekly Score: 2577 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 41947
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2528
Highest ‘real’ season score: 38245
Points in front: 3702

Round 19:

Trades: Mitchell, Kruezer out, Watson, Wellingham in (via Cox DPP)
Captain: Dane Swan
Emergencies: Terlich, Laird, Ebert, Boak, Blicavs, Daw, Reiwoldt, Lewis
Cap left: $786,700
Weekly Score: 2466
Total Score: 44413
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2481
Highest ‘real’ season score: 40580
Points in front: 3833

Round 20:

Trades: Blicavs, Kennedy out, Lobbe, Mayne in
Captain: Joel Selwood
Emergencies: Heppell, Shaw, Ablett, O’Keefe, Goldstein, Daw, Hansen, Cloke
Cap left: $710,300
Weekly Score: 2629 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 47042
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2399
Highest ‘real’ season score: 42774
Points in front: 4268

CURRENT TEAM (End of Rd 20):

DEFENDERS           

B Goddard      $467,100
R Henderson   $423,600
B Ellis             $403,500
D Heppell        $440,100
C Enright        $421,700
H Shaw           $388,800
D Terlich         $361,300
R Laird            $335,100

MIDFIELDERS        

J Selwood       $551,100
G Ablett          $532,200
D Swan           $585,000
M Barlow        $493,800
R O’Keefe      $463,400
R Griffen        $526,700
C Ward           $496,500
J Watson         $409,300
T Boak                        $442,100
B Ebert            $435,300

RUCKS         

D Cox             $451,100
T Goldstein     $413,300
M Lobbe         $416,100
M Daw            $239,700

FORWARDS

N Reiwoldt     $415,300
J Lewis            $443,100
L Hansen         $378,300
C Mayne         $436,000
T Cloke           $421,700
S Johnson        $553,400
T Rockliff       $502,200
S Wellingham  $371,800

Total Worth     $13,218,600
Cap Left          $710,300

So there you go – another 3 weekly wins (10 out of 20), a lead of over 4,000 points on ‘second’ and a highest weekly score of 2,629!

A total of 60 players have been used throughout the season with only 5 players lasting the distance so far (Goddard, Terlich, Barlow, Daw and Reiwoldt) and 6 players making more than one appearance in the team (Stanton, Boak, Watson, Kruezer, Bartel&Rockliff).

Obviously this team is calculated with the benefit of hindsight and it would be next to impossible to ride the ups and downs of players and jump on and jump off at the right time, but what can we draw from this article for 2014? Probably not a real lot but a couple of things could be:

–          A great starting team will go a long way to having a good overall ranking

–          Don’t worry about who you pick at R4 – you will never need to use their score

–          Hold on to your good rookies for as long as possible

–          Don’t be afraid to sideways trade – sometimes this could be the best option

–          It is OK to have money left in the bank, you don’t have to use every cent

–          Don’t have the attitude of ‘once bitten, twice shy’. If you have traded a player out you can always trade them back in (just don’t blame me if they burn you twice!)

–          Always follow ‘Calvin’s Captains’ – He won’t get it right every time but more often than not he will be on the money!

–          ALWAYS listen to the guys at DT TALK, they know their stuff!

With a 4,000+ point lead this team should coast to victory by the end of round 23!

Thanks again to the ‘Nix Dream Trader’ and ‘Footywire.com’ for the resources to help with this article.

For discussion on this article give me a follow on twitter  – @Pearcey47

19 Comments

  • Trading back in N Riewoldt this week for the second time in a month lol

  • great article mate, very insightful

    But shouldn’t this:
    – It is OK to have money left in the bank, you don’t have to use every **sent**

    be with a C.
    Great work again

  • Interesting read. Getting the side right at the start is a critical thing! So much time and effort would have gone into this, well done guys.

    As for trades, traditionally, serious DT’ers base their trades on statistics and form as well as BE’s of their rookies. If someone could pull this off they’re better off spending those mind powers / crystal ball on lotto numbers! ;-)

    When you say to hold onto rookies as long as possible what is your angle? Hold on until they max out in price?

    • Hook’s been on here a few times quoting his starting position after the first few rounds… he was 10 zillionth heading into R2 but still managed to pull the right moves and has been leading for a long time now.

      There’s lessons in everything, but for me the lesson in all this is trust your gut. It’s certainly worked for Hook!

  • Wellingham, interesting, I was considering him this week but opted to fix my Ibbotson and Hansen issues with Griffen and Hanley.

  • Hansen, geeze, as a long time North supporter it’s been a roller coaster ride with Lachie, he just started really coming good that I finally made the move to bring him in last week. He was meant to be my final FWD upgrade and even then it just didn’t feel right… And OFCOURSE he spuds it up the round I finally bring him in. Pretty simple to guess what my KNEE-JERK trade out was on Sunday night. But North need him to play loose, not on a key position player, so he can provide / feed the run and carry.

  • That team is the sex

  • Now if I can only email this article to myself 5 months ago

  • Nice read… but I’d doubt even Captain Hindsight would’ve benched Ablett against Melbourne!

  • Thanks for that. As you said its close to impossible for anyone to actually achieve this. What would be really interesting is if you went though the season and analysed your own team to see what you could have actually done better. I’m sure we’ve all had dozens of close decisions to make throughout the course of the season. It’d be interesting to see how our teams would look if we had made the right call. I’m not talking about picking Westhoff rd 1 but picking say Jelwood over Stanton 6 weeks ago. Little things like that that would have made a massive difference.

  • I’d be interested to see if you could make a team which is leading the competition without using a single trade

  • Warnie et al if you are reading,

    What I reckon (in a similar vein) would be more a more interesting article next year is if you had someone mail in their starting team round 1 and their trades each week to you guys BUT when they mail in also mail in advance :
    2 alternate trades for the week and;
    2 coin flip calls for the week (1 = who to bench, 1 = who goes captain).

    I’d be interested the difference in points that makes for us over a year and it would have some base in reality as alternatives the “coach” was actually considering)

  • Thanks for the positive responses. I looked at putting together a team with no trades. They would be about 500 points ahead up to the end of round 10 but then struggle through the byes and progressively drop over the preceding weeks as other teams upgrade their team. They would be about 1500 points behind the leader at this stage.

    As for the rookies, I think we have been blessed this season to have solid rookies that have put up really good scores ie O’Meara, Terlich and Mitchell. I think it could be beneficial to hold these guys a little longer than you normally would for a rookie because at the end of the day they are probably only filling your M8 or D6 position and it may be possible to extract more points by doing a ‘sideways’ trade rather than an upgrade.

  • This is the most ridiculous article I have ever read on this site. Yes a team that did the perfect trades at the perfect times for 11 rounds in a row would be leading the competition. No shower. What a waste of time.

    • I have been a loyal reader on this site for 4 years now and I will continue to be, but I have to agree with “power16” here. I don’t see the point of this article. It just seems like a waste of time to write this. Time that could have been spent preparing an article that actually helps people heading into the finals.

      Still. It doesn’t change my opinion of this site or the writers as a whole.

  • The article was written as a ‘what could have been’. Obviously it has no relevance to the near future but it may open some people’s eyes to exploring different possibilities for 2014, both in terms of starting team and trade options. The article wasn’t a ‘waste of time’ if someone sees some benefit in it.