Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 9

jeppa_rd10Let this week’s injury woes remind you of the importance of team depth. Rookies that are traded in from this point need to be in form, decent ball winners and team players. Sometimes there is the odd imposter (Stevenson) and assessments of players can change quickly (Daw) but if we look at the contribution certain youngsters make out on the field and the role they play in a side then these characteristics will go a long way towards making the right downgrades.

It’s no secret that the upcoming bye rounds will dictate which players we bring in this week. Most of us were looking pretty good too until injuries to Rockliff, Ellis, Luey, Terlich (unconfirmed) and Jesse Lonergan hit hard. Carrying these blokes into the bye rounds is not ideal so please make it a priority to trade out your injured players as required. My strategy for the bye rounds is to have a balance of rooks and premo’s in each position as well as making four premo sideways trades in Rounds 12 and 13 to try and maximise scoring. Knowing my luck, I will be hit with injuries to required players and my plans will go out the window…fingers crossed.

Here’s my assessment of the rookies that will assist you in forming a stronger and bolder dreamteam.

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

Special mention has to go to Round 9 Rising Star Sam Kerridge (FWD/MID, 126, $312,200 & BE 18). In only his sixth game, Kerridge was the match winner against the Roos after a six goal haul in the second half. He loves the contest and Sanderson sung his praises for Kerridge after the game (Source). Expect Kerridge to grow in confidence and feature more prominently out on the field in the coming rounds.

Jaeger O’Meara (MID, 86, $399,600 & BE 70), Nick Vlastuin (DEF/MID, 77, $336,500 & BE 6), Matt Jones (MID, 98, $350,500 & BE 53), Dean Terlich (DEF, 67, $321,800 & BE 18), Mark Blicavs (RUC/MID, 84, $242,500 & BE 21), Brent Macaffer (FWD, 81, $295,700 & BE 37), Brett Goodes (DEF/MID, 76, $308,000 & BE 54) and Jackson Macrae (MID, 68, $247,100 & BE -8) continue to make significant contributions on the field and have assured job security during the bye rounds so don’t trade them out.

For me, Jaryd Cachia (MID, 83, $211,800 & BE -39) was the one that got away. Cachia has played as a traditional onballer in his four games. He’s a great tackler and an even better runner. If Cachia can survive the axe when Carrazzo and Yarran come back into Carlton’s line-up then I reckon he’ll be a solid contributor over the bye rounds and beyond.

DON’T PANIC

Jackson Thurlow (DEF, 29, $151,400 & BE 12) didn’t look great against the Power on the weekend but should be given more opportunities to showcase his talent especially since the Cats face the Suns and Giants in the next two rounds. Michael Evans (MID, 63, $293,700 & BE 52) and Sam Dwyer (FWD/MID, 65, $318,400 & BE 34) also didn’t play well in their matches but both still are important players for the respective sides so back them in for at least a couple more weeks.

I’m probably going against the trend but I’m sticking with Sam Mayes (FWD/MID, 45, $263,600 & BE 92). Mayes avoided the green vest against the Blues and is going to lose a bit more coin this weekend but I still think his scoring potential is significant and he’ll prove to be a valuable asset over the bye period.

Players with healthy breakevens that need to be held on to include Jack Hutchins (DEF, 62, $209,800 & BE 29), Jordan Schroder (MID, 49, $155,400 & BE -4), Sebastian Ross (MID, 87, $268,900 & BE 26), Rory Laird (DEF, 58, $234,600 & BE 24), Jarryd Lyons (FWD/MID, 71, $235,100 & BE 15), Jimmy Webster (DEF, 24, $130,200 & BE 3), Jack Hannath (RUC, 64, $172,000 & BE 11), Mitch Morton (FWD, 64, $181,200 & BE 2), Hayden Crozier (FWD, 78, $235,200 & BE 16), Sam Docherty (DEF, 57, $136,600 & BE 9), Setanta O’hAilpin  (FWD/RUC, 18, $180,200 & BE 36) and Dane Rampe (MID, 53, $189,600 & BE 18).

If Ben Kennedy (FWD/MID, 34, $129,800 & BE 30) and Jarrod Witts (RUC, 32, $124,800 & BE 5) can avoid the vest then they might be able to give us some decent scores but don’t hold your breath! For those that kept Josh Thomas (MID, $243,800 & BE -1), he was named in the bests in the VFL on the weekend and I suspect that he’ll be named in Round 10 for the Pies so enjoy the bonus cash grab!

Don’t forget about Justin Clarke (DEF, $178,900 & BE -10) who comes back from suspension this week and will add some stability to the Lions backline. Brad Crouch (MID, $171,300 & BE -42) should also return to AFL ranks after making a successful return from a hamstring injury via the SANFL.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE            

We are at that stage of the season where there are countless three-or-more gamers that need to be traded out. In an attempt to not sound like a broken record, if a rook hasn’t been categorised above as ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out ASAP.

I will point out however that Majak Daw (RUC, 6, $239,700 & BE 112) has a massive breakeven of 112 so offload him if you can…if he avoids the axe.

Two Gamers

There were only three two-gamers to get a game in Round 9 and Brent Staker (DEF/FWD, 71, $132,600 & BE -48) is undoubtedly the pick of the bunch. Job security is key and Staker is a proven player at Brisbane. He spent the 2012 season recovering from a knee reconstruction and has made a solid comeback after three NEAFL games and two AFL games so far this year. In Round 9, Staker was the jack of all trades. He started on a wing, then was used as a high half forward, a bit at full forward and then as a defender in the last quarter. Staker doesn’t have a high ceiling but is DPP eligible and will consistently give you scores in the 70’s. It would be foolish not to pick Staker this week!

Very few rookies have averaged 90.5 in their first two AFL games, so when Mark Hutchings (MID, 97, $102,700 & BE -116) achieves such a feat, dreamteam coaches must sit up and take notice. Hutchings is a very hard working midfielder who has been rewarded for his tireless efforts on the training track and solid WAFL form. At a time where coaches are looking for reliable downgrade options, Hutchings unfortunately doesn’t fit the mould. He’s been in and out of the side to date and could find himself on the outer again with Andrew Embley, Beau Waters and Adam Selwood all set to return this week. Even though Hutchings has a very attractive breakeven, I would stay clear of him, it’s too much of a risk to bring in a player with job security issues during the bye rounds.

I think I’ve made it pretty clear over the last few weeks to trade out your Port rookies, so the last thing you want to do is bring in others, like Sam Colquhoun (DEF/MID, 53, $102,700 & BE -40). Colquhoun has averaged only 52.5 in his two games and has never looked convincing for long periods out on the ground. It’s an emphatic no on Colquhoun.

One Gamers

Nathan Hrovat (MID, 83, $107,200 & BE -98) was easily the most impressive debutant in Round 9 after been named in the bests for the Bulldogs. He’s only 174cm tall but Hrovat is a very good contested ball winner, great outside runner and fantastic user of the footy…something that lacks a bit at the Bulldogs. Even though guys like Cross and Wallis are trying to force their way back into the seniors, I feel that Hrovat will get a few games in the short term so get on the Hrovat bandwagon this week or next!

For those considering bringing in Daniel Gorringe (RUC, 66, $129,800 & BE -49) this week for Luey, think again. Gorringe is a very mobile ruckman who can get on his bike and pick up some cheap touches but there is just too much competition for the number one ruck spot at Gold Coast for my liking. Charlie Dixon is expected to return this weekend and could be used as the Suns number primary ruckman and Tom Nicholls is another waiting in the wings who is in very good NEAFL form. I doubt Gorringe will be named this weekend but even if he is, I think it would be foolish to bring him in with his job security issues and bye rounds almost upon us. Other young ruckman with job security issues include Sam Grimley (RUC, 81, $108,500 & BE -93) and Sam Michael (RUC, 12, $108,500 & BE 45). Even though Grimley scored 81 in three quarters, he’s not going to keep David Hale out of the Hawks best 22. Hale apparently has an ‘ankle’ injury and should be back after the Round 11 bye at worst. Sam Michael had a debut to forget against the Blues, managing only one handball to half time and could be dropped for Justin Clarke who has served his one week suspension. Pass on both Grimley and Michael at this stage.

George Burbury (FWD, 49, $108,500 & BE -29) had a pretty good outing for a player that was given a stay at home, forward role. He showed good intensity when the footy came near him and had a few tricks in his bag. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burbury plays another couple of games but he’s far from Geelong’s best 22 so to trade him in would be silly.

Keep Your Eye On

I’m not sure what more Tom Mitchell has to do to get make his long awaited AFL debut? He’s been named in the bests in the last four Swans reserves games and is kicking goals as well as winning a heap of the footy. There are big rumors that Mitchell will debut this weekend against the Bombers so watch this space.

‘Hurley out, Joe Daniher in’…that’s what we could see on Essendon’s team sheet this Thursday night. Realistically, Gumbleton will replace Hurley given Gumby’s BOG performance in the VFL on the weekend. Bomber Thompson did indicate on AFL 360 on Monday night that Daniher is very close to a debut. We can only wait and see.

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT

84 Comments

  • top stuff mate…genuinely appreciate the hard work cheers

    • Cheers mate. A lot of time goes into these articles so its nice to get commendations from guys like yourself.

    • @ Adam

      did you genuinely appreciate me telling you that ellis had done his hamstring, well before anybody else knew???

      • apology can be sent to my email.

        PM me for details.

        • well done jim, why anyone would chase ellis last week when priced at 382K is beyond me.

      • wasnt fussed buddy i dont have him haha. u sounded like a rumour starting troll without any source and when asked for one u were being a smartass about it. sorry u guessed right tho ;)

  • Yep agreed on cachia, he came in at the wrong time when we were busy trading out portletts & fixing up our backlines from the rnd 6 debacle, i still think gorringe should be relevant as dixon is gold coasts kurt tippett type player & would be a waste if dixon plays primarily in the ruck when all the damage hes caused this year has been up forward.

    • Yep, Dixon is definitely preferred as a forward first, ruck second but you never know. Im more worried about Nicholls form to be honest.

      • The question is though, who else can one bring in for Daw? Pay a $40k premium for Hanath perhaps? With Bradley and Griffen out for the season, he’s got reasonable JS until Sandiland’s return (Rd 14).

        • Hannath has a terrible scoring ability, will av 50 or less

          • Exactly my point. Take a punt on Gorringe or keep Daw seem to be the only options (assuming Gorringe plays this week and Nicholls doesn’t). I’m leaning towards the former (especially since I’ve got 4 Rd 12 bye rucks!)

          • Great read by the way. Keeping track of the rooks is one of the more time consuming and difficult tasks in DT and great to have such good advice in your article each week!

          • aargh zac clarke has been number 1 ruck for freo the past 2 weeks, hence hannath’s crap scores. Hannath is shit anyway, he wouldn’t score well even if he was freo’s only ruckmen and the opposition had no ruckmen

          • No argument from me Brett. Hopefully Daw will be dropped/rested and I can jump on whichever GC ruck (Gorringe/Nicholls) is playing next week and hope whoever it is can hold his spot for Rd 12. After that I couldn’t care less because I’m unlikely to need him for downgrade or a pulse.

  • What’s the news on Kyle Martin? Got 27 touches, 10 tackles and 6 goals for Collingwood reserves from the midfield. Will he debut in the coming rounds?

    • If he plays he could be on the bubble the same week as hrovat, potential dilemna haha

      • No issues at all because Hrovat will be on the bubble AFTER he’s had his bye. Martin will still have to face up to a bye in rd13

        • Well if he gets 25+ disposals and 3 goals a game in his first 2 then it will be an issue. But you’re right, it will probably be a no brainer (especially with most people’s over reliance on Rd 13 bye players).

        • Getting in hrovat in rnd 11 is pointless as u cant play him that week, if martin plays rnds 10 & 11 = bubble rnd 12 same as hrovat, if ur looking to bring in martin then do it next week if hes named in rnds 10 & 11. But my worries atm is ruck stocks with leuy out, vardy knocking on blicavs door & daw in poor form & will bleed cash if hes not dropped & likewise up fwd with neade having a BE of 80

          • I think Stange was suggesting that come Rd 12, one would be stupid to pick Martin over Hrovat since Hvorat will have had his bye whereas Martin won’t have.

    • Martin should play this week (vest risk) with Collingwood’s up and down form. I’ve mentioned him as one to watch before…He averages 25+ possessions and 3+ goals a game in the VFL! One has to ask why he hasnt debut yet?

  • Thanks again Jep, this is without doubt the most important weekly article in the world of dreamteam!

    I think you can safely take the old Chook reference off your author bio now – you have well and truly made this article your own, and doing a great job with it!

  • Always a great read Jeppa. Thanks for your time & effort. I like the way you give the important relevant details of each player in brackets after naming them. I tend to agree with you re Mayes. I think I’ll keep him at least for the byes.

  • Great work Jeppa. Ruck rookies will be a big topic with Daw topping out and Leuey’s injury.

    One of our favorite rookies looked to have come to culling time. Not according to this article.

    http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2013-05-29/dees-hopeful-terlich-will-play

    • Thanks Mark. It appears:
      Best case scenario: He’ll play
      Worse case scenario: he’ll only miss one game.

      I would prefer to dump a Portlet….

    • That’s excellent news both as a Demons supporter (we need all the good news we can get), and more importantly, as a DTer: Terlich is integral to my bye structure in the backs.

    • Terlich is fine…he couldn’t breathe properly on Sunday but is fit as a fiddle now and just completed a set of table tennis so the signs are good….for a late withdrawal.

    • good news.

  • probably not included here due to not being rookie priced.. but vardy (if he plays) could be a great downgrade option for leuey. watching that situation closely.

    • With the number of rooks thinning out, I will definitely cover Vardy after his game this week. He kicked 6 goals in the VFL on the weekend in a BOG performance. Will replace the injured Pods this week and if he plays well, could force Blicavs out when Pods comes back

      • Thanks Jeppa,

        I was holding Daw on basis he would play through byes – I’ve set out to have 4 playing rucks till after byes. Having high BE is one thing, but Daw isn’t getting anywhere near his avge – he could score a 10 and fall $40k.

        So Daw to Vardy could be good option for me this week if they are both named (same byes). Vardy is a bit risky straight up, but I can see Geelong trying to give him 3 easy games against GC, GWS & Bris to try and sort out their best tall/ruck options.

        • I agree Nix. Daw to Vardy could be a big pay off if Vardy can stay fit. Geelong rate him very, very highly!

  • Hopefully Terlich plays so I can trade out Mayes instead and get Staker in the forwards!

  • if you say we shouldn’t get Gorringe then what’s a good downgrade option for Leuey or Majak

    • Clarke or Kreuzer? Don’t think there’s really any good proper downgrades

    • Well I’m probably going to upgrade Berger to Roughy and downgrade daw to staker (moving rowe onto the ruck bench). Just means with rocky out i have to play caff, mayes & staker in the fwd. line. I’ll either do this or upgrade daw to a rd. 13 premo fwd. (as well as berger to roughy) but i don’t want to miss out on staker i think.

      • I know roughead has been scoring well but id still be a bit wary on him he was hopeless for most of the game on the wknd until he junked up late.

    • If you get Gorringe make sure its in your R4 position so you can cover him.
      Im likely to do Luey to Staker (Switch Cox back in Rucks.

      • Wish I went Nic Nat for Mayes last week which was in my trade short list so I could have done the same. I hate trading Rucks. My policy I’d to as few ruck trades as humanly possible.

        • Agreed Shags, not much to be made trading ruck rooks. Ruck/fwds as back up is the best way to cover IMO.

  • Great stuff Jeppa! Best written article on DT talk for sure.

  • Bring in Hrovat post round 11 bye.

  • I would keep Terlich if sidelined 1 week. Lonegans unfortunately has to go, I hate culling rookies early. I am genuinely thinking of bringing in Hutchings. Ballsy I know, but I’m about 3000ish, and such a ballsy move could move me up the ranks if he gets a game. Anyone else thinking about Hutchings?

    • I was going to go Hutchings but for $5000 more went Hrovat. Just think the dogs are likely to play the kid more due to them unlikely to make finals. I k is bringing in a one gamer is a no-no but I like the kids job security and I had him penciled in my round one side if he was selected

      • why would you bring in hrovat this week, bring him in after round 11 with bye complete

  • Thanks Jeppa, due to injuries my projected has gone from 2250 to 2184. I am looking forward to the MBR because I have got a nice working set up.

  • I’m also giving staker a miss much rather trade Stevenson to hrovat in a few weeks and staker won’t support my byes.

    • Giving staker a miss isn’t necessarily bad. He will have one price rise, then the bye, then you can bring him in after his bye.

      You lose his price rise, but you gain a rookie who fits the bye structure, avoid his donut, and can be traded for any issues in fwd and backline after round 11.

  • Quick question.

    Moloney and any ruck or Boyd and Zac Clarke

    • if not considering the bye rounds and out of the two.. boyd and Zac Clarke

  • Great article Jeppa.
    I like your optimism with Crouch but I think he’s going to find it very hard to break into the Crows team anytime soon given the way they performed on the weekend.

  • Jep. Quality once again. The article I most look forward to reading every week.

    For the past few weeks, I was planning on getting Ball and Staker this round but with all the outs (esp. Leuey) I’m now forced to reconsider. I’ll probably get 2 of Ball Staker or Kreuzer now. And the other next week hopefully. Which two? Keeping in mind that I’ll have to play Gawn in rucks if I don’t get Kreuz.

    Thanks.

    • Cheers mate.
      Covering injuries has to be a priority leading up to the bye rounds!

  • Did I hear correctly that Tom Mitchell got 56 disposals on the weekend for the Sydney reserves? Seems very unlikely, but if it’s true then this kid is a jet.

  • Hey jeppa. Would you assume that BK (Ben Kennedy) will get dropped for Kyle Martin. Ben Kennedy played horrible last week so he would have to be the first in line to go. What do u reckon?

  • glad to see that i have all of the ‘keepers’ and none of the ‘trade, trade, teades’
    i was hoping to go viney to crouch this week, just hope he’s named

  • Very probable mate. You’d assume they’d give Martin a crack this week.

  • Jep great article as alwyas but how has no-one mentioned my boy SimpKING, especially this week after his 107???!!! With a break-even of -22, playing Melbourne this week (pencil in at least 80+) and a RD11 Bye Rookie, massive unique, I would’ve thought he’d rate a mention?
    (I realise his JS is suss, but by then he’ll be ripe for the upgrade at arond $320k…)

  • Simpkin definitely slipped through the cracks mate. I wouldnt get him in now though. JS after the byes is poor and his vest risk does sit well with me. If you got him, no doubt keep him and start him on the field this week!

  • Made the point earlier, but want to put it to you guys. Do you think holding off staker could be a good strategy? If you get him now, he will have bye next week. If you get him after the bye you lose one price rise, but get a downgrade for rest of byes, and a handy downgrade that can fix issues in backline and forward line. Added advantage is you could get a different rookie.

    Thoughts?

    • *Holding off on trade

      • Thinking outside the square shags, I’m a big fan for having a good hard look at 3 weekers! Unfortunately for me I opted for Staker last week, against my golden 2wk rule, but was best option available (now wish I’d taken the punt on Kerridge)!

    • Wouldn’t the different rookie have a similar issue RE having a bye soon?

  • Thanks jeppa great info and research as always. I was wondering what your thoughts were on saunders from the saints and rowe from carlton of getting any games in the near future. They are my only non playing blokes at the moment on my team and been stuck on my bench for some weeks now. i want to trade luey this week swapping cox and maybe bring in staker. Then maybe bring in crouch if he is named for evans or mayes as omeara is the only other mid rook i have. Or i could straight upgrade saunders to staker.

    • id keep rowe for his DPP.

      track your players for the byes but id bring in Hrovat for Mayes instead of Crouch

  • Chooks Rooks used to be the must read article but since his resignation I believe Jeppa has taken this jonre to the next level. If you only read one article about DT then this is the one.

    Most read article for a very good reason. No offence Tbetta (close second), Calvin etc.

  • fine work Jeppa, this post and BB’s at TS are the go to articles for the week for me.

    A big plus this week has been the intelligent feedback offered – well done one and all. A seond big plus is that this article has not degenerated into another RMT sequence – thank goodness for that. Perhaps the mods are at work?

  • does any 1 no rockliffs BE
    would rockliff 2 staker be a good trade ???

    • Not really. Rocky is out for two week and one of them is his bye, so technically he’s really only missing this week. Usually if a premo is out for 1 week, it’s a hold. Only problem is if he turns out to miss more games than predicted.

      His BE is 145, but fairly irrelevant as he should be a keeper.

  • My current trades are;
    Terlich to Ablett, Leuey to Staker.

    If Terlich plays, who should I ditch instead? Pittard, Lonergan, Crouch, Mayes?

    If so I think I wouldnt be able to get Ablett due to those guys being less valuable than Terlich, but I could perhaps look at Boyd etc

  • need some help on who to bring in out of Stanton or Boyd disregarding the bye rounds?

  • current trades rockliff to johnson and berger for gorringe
    should i take the punt with gorringe and have 221k in the bank or go with kreuzer and have 20k in the bank

  • Trading out Pittard and Leuy and was looking at getting Roughie but it only leaves me with $356k for either a back or fwd (staker can swing). Opinions?

  • so Nicnat or roughie??