Scott Selwood – Deck of Dream Team 2013

jan30_scooterselwoodName: Scott Selwood
Club: West Coast Eagles
Position: Midfielder
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $503,500
Bye Round: 12
2012 Average: 97.2
2012 Games Played: 22
Predicted Average: 108

 

Why should I pick him?

Last year, being the Eagles supporter that I am, I was asked a few times what I thought about Scott Selwood as a DreamTeamer. Most replies were kicked off with a scoff, a chuckle, or a slow shaking of the head. Why did I see Scooter as such a dud pick in 2012? Because there was nothing to suggest he was about to forge his way into Premium territory with a 97.2 average, while playing all 22 games.

The role wasn’t there – he spent the bulk of the 2011 season as a tagger (and a very good one, averaging 8.1 tackles per game, best in the league), preferring to lock-down opposition play-makers rather than add to his 18.7 disposals per game. The value wasn’t there – he averaged 87.1 over 22 games the year before, meaning he was very awkwardly priced in that twilight zone between Premium and Mid-Pricer. The ceiling wasn’t there – his highest score was 114 DT points, one of just 3 scores above 100 points all season. Most importantly, the fitness wasn’t there – he spent most of the off-season recovering from back surgery, regularly seen walking laps deep into January while his teammates completed full running sessions. Despite obvious ability and a promising future ahead of him, 2012 just didn’t look to be his year.

I was wrong.

Scooter started with a bang, averaging 29 disposals and 5 tackles for 115 DT points over the first 6 games, as Worsfold released him as an attacking inside midfielder. This was very surprising given his non-existent pre-season, and it soon showed; after a slow month, Selwood was again reassigned to defensive tagging duties. He still averaged 96.2 points per game in this role, the most of any pure tagger in the AFL. While he was unable to continue his exciting start, 2012 was still a career-year for Selwood, averaging new highs in disposals, marks and goals, winning his Club’s Best and Fairest – all while improving his DT output by 10 points per game.

This year, I’m very excited about his prospects. The fitness is there – he’s participated in the entire pre-season, apparently “challenging the Eagles’ benchmark, Chris Masten, in their running sessions”The role is there – It’s reasonable to assume that he’ll be able to maintain a high level of fitness throughout the year thanks to an actual pre-season, so expect Worsfold to utilise Scooter as an attacking midfielder in a similar fashion to early 2012. The ceiling is there – Scooter scored over 130 points thrice last year, with ten games above the century mark overall. And critically, the value is there – if his output over early 2012 becomes the norm this season, he is under-priced by about $90k, and that’s without projecting any natural development.

To put in in perspective, an improvement of that magnitude would be very similar to Cotchin’s 2012, who increased his average from 93.6 to 110.4 to become a Top 6 midfielder.

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

There’s always the possibility that Scott is deemed by the coaching staff to be more important to the Eagles as a tagger. This seems unlikely given his untapped potential as an attacking midfielder, but his track-record as an excellent stopper works against him.

His tackling has also come into question, having averaged a huge 3.2 less tackles (roughly 13 DT points) per game less in 2012 than the previous season. This is both worrying and pleasing – it’s a big sacrifice in point scoring, but it does show that he’s paying more attention to his offensive side of the game on a regular basis.

The biggest concern for me is that, while there is no way that he’ll average less than he did last season (injuries permitting, of course), will he average enough to become a keeper? Given we have 8 starting MID slots now, I’d be stoked filling them with any of the Top 10 midfielders. Last year, the tenth-highest scoring MID was Scott Thompson, with 105 ppg – this is the figure that Scooter needs to overtake to make him a successful under-priced selection for mine. Will he get there?

  

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – There is not a lot of downside to picking Scooter, but the potential is huge. If you had Cotchin, Watson or Kennedy last season, you’ll appreciate the advantage your side earns by nailing that break-out Super-Premium. There’s a handful every year – and the signs are all there for Scott Selwood. Just remember, if he fails to impress you after a few rounds, you always have the option to sideways him to a fallen Premium with all the extra trades we have in 2013. So, if you’ve got the sack to take a punt, Scooter’s your man.

PROJECTED STATS:

Scott Selwood Predicted Stats

VISION:

 Scott Selwood 2012 Highlights

 

 

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17 Comments

  • Avatar of Pettiger

    Great analysis Tbetta. Could be an unique pick for this year and it’s hard to go wrong with a player named Selwood. I have considered him.

  • Avatar of McRath

    Good analysis tBetta – one thing that people need to remember with Scooter is that (until proven otherwise) he will always be the Weages’ best tagging/run with player. So unless they plan on using Wellingham in that role, he’ll always be prone to the occasional shut down score.

    • Avatar of McScoundrel

      Until last year, Wellingham was indeed primarily a run-with player under Malthouse. On a few occasions (when the heavy hitting prime-movers were injured), Wello would step up and go bang with a comparable DT score. Under Buckley and with the emergence of Beams, Sidey, etc, he stuffed around up forward and other shit things. It’s unlikely that mad dog Wooshman would have him do similar so I would suggest that he gets the run-with role. So thanks, t-betta, will have a good think about Scooter.

  • Avatar of Genghis Khan

    Good and interesting write up Tbetta. However just too many better options around that price range. For just 20-30k more you can get Murphy, Danger or Redden. I even think ROK, Greene and Mundy are better smokies for less coin as well. WIll be keen to see how he goes.

  • Avatar of Big Feller

    Given the ducking you might want to increase your frees for stat!

  • Avatar of BEAST23

    nice read, just remember wellingham will get some tagging jobs so selwood will likely have less ‘tagger scores’ especially with more fitness.especially on the perth wide open spaces

  • Avatar of Paulus

    Scooter is in for me. Unique enough and with his price and my team structure I can just squeeze him into M6.

  • Avatar of Reprobates

    Great analysis mate. Thought he would be in the deck. With a decent preseason this year and let off the leash more is a very good choice for his price. Can only see a 10 % upside min. in him and a point of difference to boot.

  • Avatar of Presto

    Great article, but pass.

    You forgot to mention he has to be the most inconsistent player in the league.
    Every time he scored a century he followed it up with forgettable games:
    Round 3 150 round 4 82
    Round 6 125 round 7 79
    Round 8 106 round 9 75
    Round 12 106 round 13 60
    Round 16 116 Round 17 82
    Round 19 102 Round 20 68
    Round 21 144 Round 22 74
    Round 23 232 EL. Fin. 83

    In addition ifs you analyze his scores you see that his best games (150,131,144) were against GWS, Melbourne and Port, while his worst (60,64,67,68) were against Collingwood, North, Collingwood and Geelong.

  • Avatar of Sooners

    Had him in my team from the start last season, one of the best pick ups I’ve ever had playing this game. But I see him lifting his game even higher than that even though he’s one of my favourite players in the AFL.

  • Avatar of Warnie

    WEST Coast club champion Scott Selwood could be given even more ball-winning freedom this season, with recruit Sharrod Wellingham shaping as a strong run-with option for the Eagles.

    http://t.co/3HXqHwy4