Shaun Atley – Deck of Dream Team 2013

jan20_atleyName: Shaun Atley
Club: North Melbourne
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $311,200
Bye Round: 11
2012 Average: 59.7
2012 Games Played: 23
Predicted Average: 75-80

 

Why should I pick him?

“Who the hell is Shaun Atley?” I hear you say.

Well gather round people; let me tell you a story.

Taken at pick 17 in the 2010 National Draft, North were delighted to pick him up with 17 as it was widely tipped he would go in the top 10. The-now 20 year old Atley played 16 games in his debut year averaging a modest 48.4.

Last year he was stationed at half back and whilst looking at his average( 59.7) doesn’t inspire any real need to invest in him, I think that there is more to him than just those numbers.

Atley played every game in 2012 and played an important role rebounding across half back. He possesses explosive pace and has the ability to break opposition lines. He can go from Zero to breakneck speed seemingly in a couple of steps and when he is at top pace is close to un-catchable.

When looking at his numbers for 2012, he was extremely consistent, whilst these numbers were not large, his standard deviation was incredibly low @11.9.. streets ahead of other  Mid Priced Defenders (Golby, Nicholson, Howard, Geary, Smith, Watts, Yarran, Hibberd)

His scoring range reflects his consistency:

0-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91+

17%

30%

35%

13%

4%

0%

Again, his numbers are not large…BUT..he is held in enormously high regard at Arden street and has been training with the midfield group this pre season. A move to the midfield is definitely on the cards and he only needs to add 3-4 Kicks and 2-3 Handballs per game to his repertoire and I see his output being closer to 75-80.

The other stats that stand out to me across 2012 are:

  • 10th in AFL for most time on ground
  • 7th in AFL for running bounces
  • 12th in AFL for running bounces per game (ave 2 per game)

The kid has an enormous tank and can run all day. He will play a large part in North’s midfield rotations this year, it is just a matter of when.

Check out some highlights from last year.

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

He is relatively unknown and his stats last year do not instil a lot of confidence. He is also awkwardly priced at 311k and if you are taking a punt on a midpriced defender, players like Geary, Howard, Golby might jump out ahead of him.

 

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK– Sean Atley will be a Dream Team relevant player, the question is will it be this year. He is a definite watch for NAB cup, but I believe he has more upside than down side. A 12 point increase last year and even a similar increase this year would put him at around 72ppg making him a nice stepping stone to another premo defender at worst.

I know it is bandied around often, but he is coming into his 3rd year and is the kind of player that has breakout written all over him.

Given the young north midfield, his explosive pace, willingness to take the game on and endurance , if he shows a bit in NAB I say jump on!

 

 

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18 Comments

  • Good analysis Rob. He has potential but not for me at this time. He might pop up in my wife’s team.

    • On the short list for mid-pricers

      Would like the have a least 1 Kangaroo in the team and he could be the guy.

  • Picking up Jacobs makes Atley more fantasy relevant

  • good work rainman! had him pencilled in after a mate pointed him out, My structure allows for a mid priced D6. He’s firmed a little now for mine, after reading yor well researched review. Up seems the only way this bloke is going – but just how far?

  • Great work Rainman.
    He’s been in and out of my team and is definitely on my watch list.

  • Great article, although the third year breakout is a myth, as is the opinion that Buddy can score 150+
    If you take out his 200, he averaged… 94 in 2012. That’s less than Pav. His next highest score was 130 in Rnd 1.
    In 2011, his highest score was 144.
    If you take out his 200, he had 6 scores below 80, and one 81 (in 2012)

    Sorry about that *end rant

  • Nice.
    Might be a bit of a risk, but North is one team who I think will pump out big DT scores this year.

    On my watch list.

  • Great article Rob, being a Roo man thoroughly enjoyed it….love the way he plays cant wait to NAB to see his role….his acceleration when he gets the ball is very Judd like…..very big watch thanks Rainman….

  • aye, another i’ve had pencilled in, plenty of YOLO about this guy, he’ll be a fun pick

  • I was ridiculed on a particular live dt scoring site towards the end of last season for suggesting Atley could have potential for DT this year … Didnt turn me off. Hope he proves the chumps wrong :)

    Good works, rainman!

  • I’ve had him in my team all pre season, I think he’ll be a major improver.

  • Going to be worth a look but not for me unless he blows it out of the park in NAB

  • I’m thinking of playing him and Howard as it makes me feel more comfortable in my defence only playing the two rookies instead of three.

  • Great write up as always! You make a compelling argument!
    He does look like he has it in him.
    Nab Cup watch list. :)

  • How valuable a team is possible with these new rules?

    Last year, with 24 trades, teams often went from $8.8m to $12m, a rise of over 36%.

    With 44 trades, is it possible that teams might get from $9.1m to over $22m, a rise of 150%?

    I expect tsideways trades, to protect your league position, might soak up some of this but I wonder just how high a value I should be aiming for.

    Any thoughts?

  • Oops, sorry, I meant to post this on the “5 biggest changes…” thread. I’m reporting it there?

  • Have had him all pre-season so far but will only lock him in based on what he pumps out in the NAB Cup. Intending to pick 2 of Jacobs, Atley and Howard. Who’ll miss out is yet to be determined!