Good Trade, Bad Trade: Round 11

Well that time of the season has finally arrived, the time we have all been dreading. The multi bye rounds. These three weeks are a bit like exams.  You plan out weeks in advance your study timetable. You study all curriculum and previous exams, you feel confident that your preparation has been meticulous. You cruise into the exam room, with a bit of swagger ready to annihilate the exam . Only to find out that you crammed for the wrong exam. You push the panic button. F#ck I hope its multi-choice!

Captain Carnage, reporting for duty.

No matter how much planning we could do for these rounds, it was never going to be enough. No one could predict who was going to be available, who would be injured and who would be suspended (I’m looking at you, Beau Waters). This week we are faced with probably the most difficult week of the three, as it appears that a lot of people are planning to cop what ever comes their way this week and look to trade in the coming 2 weeks to players of a previous bye to cover future donuts. While most are preparing for carnage of multiple donuts, others are also looking at injuries to key players such as  ChristensenScotland and Pendlebury. Hopefully the DT gods smile on us and allow Heppell, Enright and Swan to get a guernsey this week and ease the pain. I’m not a religious man, but this may the week where I look to a higher power for some guidance (and someone else to blame)

To trade or not to trade

As posted earlier this week on here by tbetta and Chook, unless you have an LTI, You. Do. Not. Trade. Any trades you make this week to non rd 11 players, you will just wear in the coming rounds. This week, my team The Running Man, is genuinely pushing shit up hill. As mentioned above, this was the week where I was  planning to wear the most majority of donuts and look to improve my team in the coming rounds. In a best case scenario, I will now be eating 5 donuts (bye players and a Pendles injury). This includes a trade of Christensen(probably to Didak)  and the likes of Horsely,Hepell , Redden, Big O and Hall all getting a game. If any these players were to get dropped and Jelwood also miss ( nothing offiicial, just a gut feeling after a groin tweak against the giants), well it’s time to hit the panic button, and look at what trades can get me out of this!

As I have already used one trade for Bundy, I will look to off load a couple of  giants like McDonald and Adams and bring in a pair of Mitchells’, Tom (pending selection) and Sam. While I am fully aware I will still wear these donuts in future rounds, I think there are still some positives to trading this week

  1. I’m still improving my team. Cashing out rookies close to peaking, bringing in rookies with a good reputation and should play some games (hugely speculative, but the kid is a gun, and Parker’s injury may be the opportunity he needs) while Sam Mitchell is a proven gun who will hopefully pick up his form for the second half of the season. No sideway trades (bar the LTI)
  2. I’m replacing rookie scores with premium scores during the bye rounds. Instead of Adams 60’s, I could get Mitchell’s 120’s ( I could also get Mitchell’s 60 too, but a risk I’m willing to take)

The above trade plan is a worse case scenario if I wear 7-8 donuts. If I can help it, I will only be trading the 1 LTI. It’s always good to have a plan B when the shit hits the fan and you start pushing it uphill without a paddle. Have you got a plan B when the carnage hits? or are you cruising?

The most popular….

According to Assistant coach, the most popular trade this week is Pendlebury to Ablett, but  it only equals 2% of all trades. These two also represent the most traded out player (Pendles, 6.7%) and the most traded in ( Ablett, 6.4%. )Obviously hard to gauge on a Wednesday night, but it’s all I got . Ablett’s 182 on the weekend gave everyone a reminder who this bloke is, and then made them slap themselves in the face because they traded him out in the first place…Pendlebury on the other hand is not so understandable.  With Physiotherapist Jakub giving his 2 cents on Pendle’s injury, I thought I would give my 2 cents as an Exercise Physiologist (not a Physio, as some bloke on twitter thought, and tweeted me asking for treatment of his knee). While Pendles has been diagnosed with a ‘cracked tibia’, I believe it isn’t as bad as it sounds. If it was, Pendles would of been a) stretchered off and b) red vested immediately NOT given a half of football ( to amass an SC ton?????) and then vested as precautionary (source here) once the magpies were cruising. Yes the tibia is a primary weight bearing bone of the lower leg and exactly why it cant be that bad, if he had cracked it properly, he would not of run out a half of football ( and dominated). In a worst case scenario, you would hold him this week and through his bye and see where he is rd 13. If the prognosis is worse, you can trade him and you only wear ONE donut for your patience. this can be represented by a simple formula:

Pendles > 1 donut

Be Patient people! This bloke has only missed 6 games since 2007 so is durable as they come. Injuries to Ablett and Swan this year should be a good precedent as to why you should hold him!

 

That’s it for this week. Hold your trades if you can, and do what you need to do to get through the rounds (take time off work, join a cult/religion, anything you need to do)

 

do you have any amazing strategy? Share below!

 

follow me on @jimbobholder in the twittersphere

110 Comments

  • Scotland and Pendles out have turned my 3 donuts this round into 5 providing Horse and Hall play.

    Absolute shambles, I only brought in Pendles last week (stupidly in hindsight but overall will be a fine decision)…. normally I’d just cop donuts but with the high ranking, I feel like I have to trade to keep the ranking (39)…. I wish I was just going for league wins this sucks!

    If I trade out Scotland this round, I cop a donut in round 12 or 13 anyway with many thanks to Beau frikkin Waters out in round 12 killing my plans to bring in an extra round 12 player. Its officially all gone to shite… anyone want to give some advice?

  • So after seeing teams, I’m copping 9 doughnuts.
    Am just putting the cue in the rack this week, gonna lose anyway, seeyas in Rd 12….

  • Bloody MBR’s I have lost Scotland, Pendles & HMac to injury, Christensen was due back but got knocked out & just read AC injury and listed as indefinably (great), then have GWS players – Bugg, Darley, Oldmac, Greene, Smith & Treloar – was trading 3 of them for Sideass, Beams & another premium mid ($550,000 to spend)

    Then have Hargrave, Lake, Boyd, Porp & Zorko PLUS the Horse has been “rested” but at least HepD & McCarthy are named – 9/10 Donuts staring me in the face – 1st in my league but playing a muppet BUT he has nearly all players with rd 12/13 byes so I am shot – holding onto my trades and going to murder my round 12/13 opponents. I probably will only have 1 or 2 donuts in rd 12/13 – AFL you suck with these stupid byes. They should just all take a weekend off half way through the season!!

    PS: Great advice above Neil – reinforces my thoughts about trading – leading league, will win rounds 12 /13, $672,200 in the bank & 11 trades left – take the donuts Rd 11 and move on!!

  • What are everybodys thoughts on Dan Nicholson?
    He has a B/E of 6 and im thinking of downgrading malceski or hardgrave to him, dont even start on not trading for round 11 because im against the bottom 3 teams in my league the next 3 rounds, is Dan Nicholson actually any good or should i keep who ive got?

  • Paul Bower > Michael Johnson
    or> Matt Suckling
    or> Grant Birchall

    Who do you suggest?

  • Last week I cashed in cows as part of my upgrade/bye strategy.

    Coniglio > Pendles
    Bugg > Scotland

    Now I cop donuts and miss out on picking those jets up cheaper. BUT This is why we love DT! The mate I’m playing this week will easily be enjoying this as much as I’m hating it! (he only had pendles not scotland)

  • Horse to Marley Williams just to free up some cash considering that I reckon my next downgrade targets will be Couch and T Mitchell hopefully

  • who to trade in.

    Sam Mitchell, Brad Ebert, or Trent Cotchin.

    Any help would be appreciated haha

  • Trades in my mind so far:

    Clarke to Heppell
    Horsley to Robinson

    Good trades, bad trades?

  • Just a question -relevance debatable, but does anyone think next year the is a sneaky chance of cox being DPP ruck forward? Starts every game forward with Nic Nat in ruck, spending half the time up there and kicking multiple goals more games than not….thoughts?

  • I have the opportunity to put together this team by Round 13, but would leave me with 6 trades left.
    each line has a solid backup player, who is playing football (at the moment).

    Deledio, Enright, Goddard, Birchall, Hargrave, Heppel, Waters,
    (Clarke, Darley)

    Swan, Boyd, Watson, Rockliff, Mitchell, Ablett,
    (Zorko, C Smith)

    Giles, Kruezer
    (Stephenson, T Campbell)

    Sidebottom, Franklin, Chappy, Martin, dangerfield, Beamer, Robbo,
    (Dickson, Couch)

    its pretty much the team that I have been trying to pull together, but am really concerned with having only 6 trades left. my original bye plan spent 2 trades left, but left me with the extra scotlands donuts and without mitchell in round 13 – thoughts?

  • Who voted that they had no donuts this week? That would mean they have an average of 15 donuts in the following 2 weeks. Surely you need to have about 8 per week average minimum (using trades to do so) to be competitive overall and in your league?

    • My strategy is I’m sacrificing week 13. Will have about 12-13 donuts. Theory is I’ll win 2 out of 3 games in my league. Currently sitting top in one undefeated so prepared to take 1 loss and 2nd/3rd in the other 2.

      This week I’m thinking more about trading Scotland and Horsley. But who to trade to in the defenders is proving to be a tough decision. Already have Goddard, deledio, waters, Broughton and birchall. Do I go to Heppell/Johnson. With Horsley I’m thinking of copping a donut this week and trading in rocky, mind you I could always just wait a week on that one

    • This is why I shouldn’t post late at night. My math was right out the window (I’m also blame birthday drinks!) Having no donuts this week would mean an average of 11 the next 2 weeks without trades, burning 3 trades a week would bring you to hopefully 8 per week.

      I myself am going to just have to cop a few this week, few players out (and “rested”) and no point in covering them as it will just add to byes over the next few rounds.

      Who’s bright idea was to have byes?

  • I understand why everyone says not to trade, I really do, but surely this is the best chance to get Ablett? I will win my bye fixtures no matter what I do, I just want to set up for a tough run home. I don’t plan to trade again for a long time this week, and intend on keeping Scotland. Any thoughts…?

    Horsley -> Ablett
    Adams -> Nicholson
    Petrie -> Couch (could be anyone under $105K)

    Team:

    DEF: Scotland, Goddard, Waters, Clarke, Heppell, Nicholson, Hargrave (Bugg, Spurr)
    MID: Ablett, Stanton, Thompson, Rockliff, Ebert, Deledio (Treloar, Couch)
    RUC: Cox, Giles (Stephenson, Redden)
    FWD: Sidebottom, Franklin, Chapman, Robinson, O’Keefe, Martin, Zorko (Pfeffer, Hall)

  • how many trades should you have left after these bye rounds?