Versus – Round 3: Broughton v Heppell

After reading the comments of the previous two ‘Versus’ articles by McRath their seemed to be a lot of support and a push for the continuation of these articles. So following the basic blueprint laid out by McRath I have put together this article opposing two players that may well step into the top echelon of dream team defenders this year.

Following some reading of comments in both the ‘My Team’ post and the DoDT articles of both Greg and Dyson respectively, it appears that these two players are really fighting it out for that D4/5 position. Placed at almost the exact same price, with the same bye, both players provide obvious upside and could be in line for big years. In saying that which one will you be recruiting to fill one of those precarious defender spots in 2012? Hopefully this article will help you decide just that.

Greg Broughton

Price – $416,200
Position – Def
Bye Round – 12
Age – 25

2011 Details:
Average –
84.14
Games played – 21
High Score – 149
Low Score – 46
No. of 100+ scores – 6
No. of sub 70 scores – 8

Dyson Heppell

Price – $415,900
Position – Def
Bye Round –12
Age – 19 (20 in may)

2011 Details:
Average –
84.09
Games played –22
High Score – 108
Low Score –52
No. of 100+ scores – 5
No. of sub 70 scores –4

Scoring Potential& Consistency:

Over the course of Broughton’s 3 years in the AFL he has shown the dream team world that he has huge scoring potential, and from what was seen in 2011 a much higher ceiling than Heppell, clearly represented by Greg’s HS of 149 compared to Dyson’s 108. The downside of Broughton is however, that he can consistently score sub par scores, as shown in the first 8 and last 5 rounds of 2011 where he averaged just 64. In fact even in Broughton’s purple match mid season he knocked out 3 games of 90 or below including one, which was sub 50, just highlighting his inconsistency. Heppell showed us all in his debut year that he may not have the scoring potential of Broughton but what he lacks there he certainly makes up for in his consistency of high standard games, hitting the 90+ mark an incredible 9 times in his debut year. Sure 90 isn’t a huge score but keep in mind that Fyfe (a similar type of silky outside player with a strong grab, however in a amore attacking manner) reached the 90 mark just 3 times and averaging only 68 in his debut year before upping his average to 98 in just his second season.And with a solid pre season in the gym and on the track surely we can expect Heppell to enhance his ceiling and build on his scoring potential, right?

The graphs below show both Greg and Dyson’s scores from each round, clearly highlighting the disparity of consistency between the two.

Round 1 goes to……. Heppell, just, for his above par consistency and likelihood to increase his scoring potential and ceiling. However if Broughton added some consistency to his game then he definitely seems to have greater upside due to his higher ceiling. (Score: 0-1)

Durability:

Not really too much too say here considering both players are still very early on in there careers, entering there 2nd and 4th careers respectively. However it is worth noting that since his debut Broughton has missed 13 of a possible 64 games and has struggled with different injuries at times throughout his 3year career. Dyson however seemed to show great durability playing in all 23 of Essendon’s games in his first season despite rumors going around pre draft day 2010 that he was struggling with an injury.

Round 2 goes to……. Once again it’s Heppell, but with not much to go off I wouldn’t be paying too much attention to this category. (Score: 0-2)

Value:

Being two of the minimal defenders not sharing the round 13 bye both represent great value, money and structural wise, provided they average in excess of 90 that is. As it is expected both will do this it can be assured that they probably wont be too much cheaper throughout the season, however probably wont rise too much either unless they really push their avg. to in excess of 95+

Round 3 goes to…… Broughto, if he can add some consistency to his game he offers incredible value, but we will need to see how Ross Lyon uses him first.

(Score: 1-2)

Health/Fitness:

The words an pictures leaking out from Essendon are representing that Heppell is having an incredible pre season and is in absolute tip top shape and is gearing up for another big year and looking to build on his debut season. Ross Lyon appears to be giving away nothing over in the west with minimal to no news on Broughto, or any of his teammatesfor that matter. Which is probably a good thing considering Greg’s history of getting injured because if there had been an injury you would think it would be reported?

Round 4 goes to…… Once again nothing to really go off here but given the hype on Heppell’s pre season he wins out in this category. (Score: 1-3)

Team Draw:

Both teams seem to face relatively easy draws in 2012 with Essendon playing 10 games at Etihad and 7 games at the ‘G’ through the course of the season (where Heppell averages 82.33 and 92.25 respectively), meanwhile, like always, Freo will play 12 games at Patersons (where Greg has averaged 91 over the course of his 29 games there).

Now looking to the teams that they play twice, in brackets is there average against that team and from how many games:

Essendon & Heppell: Collingwood (102/2), Richmond (105/2), Port (102/1), Carlton (81/2), North (58/1) – in total 91.875/8

Freo and Broughto: Port (96/3), West Coast (92.4/5), Adelaide (88.5/4), Richmond (82/3), Melbourne (60.33/3) – in total 85.05/18

When scanning over the fixture it seems as though Essendon have a larger portion of easier games in the first 11 rounds with Freo being the opposite, leading to Broughton perhaps being an upgrade target post Rd 12 and starting with Heppell a better option

Round 5 goes to…… Heppell, with minimal travel and a better average against the team he faces twice I would assume that Heppell would be the better option for a starter if deciding by this category. (Score: 1-4)

Conclusion:

Overall I believe that both will push for an average of 90+ and slip into the top 10 defenders come years end if they stay fit. However given the unknowns of Lyon’s game plan & Broughton’s knack of slipping into a lockdown defender roll, coupled with his inconsistency, hangs huge question marks over his head going into the 2012 season, making Heppell the safer and better choice in my opinion. Let us know your thoughts and comments below, feedback appreciated. (Once again thanks to McRath because I wouldn’t of been able to write this without the structure he set in his first two of these articles)

Good luck to all for the 2012 season

Robdog

Broughton and Heppell: Who will you be picking?

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101 Comments

  • Great article and hope you create an article on Suckling v Birchall as it is a very big issue.

    • I have both

    • Great stuff Robdog! that was one that I was trying to figure out myself, now im on the heppell banwagon for sure. As Swanlow36 said it would be great to see a suckers v Birch article.

    • Spoke to Suckling today and he is primed! (they all are arent they!) But seriously had his first full preseason last year and look what he was able to do. He again has had an outstanding preseason which is going to help him go for more of those runs through the midfield being the link man kicking into the forward fifty or even shots at goal. He is a quality player and a quality bloke. Get on board!!!

      • Yeah Im on suckers over birchal atm, but im not 100% convinced

        • been flipping around Suckling and Birchall since DT opened and I am very confused!

          Great write up robdog and cannot wait for the season to start :D

          • Haha yeah so many of these 50/50 calls, whoever manages to get them right will go a long way to winning that car :)

  • can’t take either, too rich for my blood!!

  • i agree…Possibly the Best Ever DT Talk article

  • adcock could be thrown in too

    great read

  • Off Topic

    But is anyone who subsribes to Ass. Coach having trouble opening the articles posted ?

    When I go into the news menu and click on any of the articles posted nothing is coming up other than a blank screen ???

    • No articles have been posted yet have there.

      Warnie said he is doing one on collingwood to go up on Monday though.

    • no I’m not subscribed to “ass”. This is a footy forum man, we don’t want to know about the pages of your copy of “ass” being all stuck together and your coach being unable to open em ;0)

  • yep awesome read… too bloody goody actually! Grrr now the door that was closed on hep d over broughton has been flung back open. My gut still says broughts but now my brain’s saying “now hang on a minute bud…” will wait to see where he’s played b4 broughts is brought.

  • At this stage Hep is in but given he, Broughton & Houli are all roughly priced the same I’ll be making my final decision based on NAB cup and who has the better haircut!

  • Its a tough one, both have upside for different reasons. It will become apparent after the NAB games though.

  • Great article, I’ve had Heppell pencilled into my team all pre-season and he’ll stay that way. Gun.

  • Hepp D for me :)

  • I’m loving how there are so many options as the 3rd/4th/5th backs.
    I don’t think there’s going to be many without Goddard/Deledio.

    I’m banking on Hep D having a second year breakout.
    But if he maintains his average and consistency at the very minimum, it’s not a bad pick in books.

  • Last year i started with a strong back line and a strong ruck, i was miles ahead of my league opponents. So why for the life of me can i not bring myself to spend money in my back line or my rucks this year!!. Ive been through multiple team combinations and the only one’s ive been happy with have been weak in the back and ruck. I wont be getting Heppel or Broughton because they are too expensive for me! Do i need my head checked?

    • No, it is working perfectly fine!
      I am scrimping in the backline this year too and loading up my other 3 lines. This is where the big points will be scored imho.

  • Good effort robdog – great to have someone keeping up the articles in my work induced absence. Hepp D for me at this stage – was burnt by Broughts last year and with the unknown surrounding the new coach its too big a risk for me at this stage…

    • Cheers McRath, pretty sure ill do one up on suckling and birch all but thought id check to make sure you weren’t gonna do one on both or one of them first?

  • Great job Rob.
    Hoping Broughts gets mid-time/rebounding role, so I can go with both.

    • You can’t hope he gets midfield time, you have to *know* he will! If your shelling out that sort of coin for Broughts, you have to be GUARANTEED a return on you investment.
      That is also the problem with Hepp. He might now be so good that he attracts a tag, or at least a defensive forward…scary thought if you’ve parted with big $$$ for him.

      • These $400k – $470k players are a right pain in the ass. Real premiums pick themselves in your team and whichever way you go, you can’t really go wrong but the Broughtons, Heppells, Robinsons, Zaharakises, Martins et al all come with so many pros and cons that its easy to change them 5 seconds before the first lockout depending on your train of thought at the time. Atm I’ve convinced myself of the merits of the ones I’ve picked and they seem like good choices but if the ones you don’t pick go bang and average 100+ and the ones you’ve got scrap around for 80-90 it feels like an epic fail. Its easier to feel confident about the much cheaper players because there’s less riding on them. Anyway, at least there’s Micky Barlow.

        • btw, is the Coach’s Box working? I posted a couple of greetings there, the second in place of the first because it disappeared and then it disappeared too. I hope I’m not censored already!!!

          • My friend and I spoke on coaches box together earlier but they aren’t there now.

            Must be a whole website problem.

          • I can’t get my Coaches Box posts to ‘stick’ either. They keep disappearing once you go to another screen or refresh. Grrrr.

          • PKS – No coaches box means we won’t get the lie of your rub – ha ha… rub.

          • ^^^ “My office! Burgled. Plundered. Purloined. Ha, ha, ha… Loins.”

          • Yeah, I can’t post anything on Coaches Box either, very annoying…. >:(

      • Words of wisdom as always!
        Backline is definately giving me the biggest headache.

        • + 100.
          Have changed it so many times. Initial thoughts were go with designated Guns and rely on some of the tasty rook defenders. Right now at this hour today that is my thought. Who knows what tomorrow brings!

          • is anyone else having trouble with supercoach site..i know i know this dt talk ,but i play both and ,i dont go on any of their talk sites and it keeps spinning out on me ???

            i havent got either of these two at the minute ,but after reading this maybe i should

    • Why not eeep! If broughton is allowed to do his thing Ill sign up both! Just got to love Broughton’s monster scores and Heppell’s consistency! Mmmm I will take two please!!

      • C’mon Lyon, “let him run free, no lockdown roles thanx!”
        New coaches, new game plans…….like playing darts in the dark, whilst holding a dimly lit torch in the other hand.

    • Eeep, love to have you in the DT Talk GUNS League. The number is 231340. I ‘d like to get the regulars together in a league. Should be really good competitive fun!

  • Please help!

    Option 1 – M. Leuenberger, Z. Smith, S. Sidebottom – $1,243,300
    Option 2 – B. McEvoy, H. Mctintosh, N. Fyfe – $1,207,600

    Thanx for Advice.

  • heppell is going to get more midfield time
    broughton is going to get more defence time.

    not a hard choice.

  • Heppell will definitely get more midfield time and will average 90+
    A whole heap better than Broughton no questions asked

  • is there any all girl leagues going in dream team??? my partner want to only go against girls

  • Under Lyon, both Gram and S.Fisher had high scoring roles in the Saints backline…

    Duffield and Broughton?

  • Well considering we wont know what role Lyon has for Broughton its hard to tell if he will be a good pick up or not. Personally im getting Heppell, not only was a good scorer last year this year he has put on several kg’s, he can only get better

  • Heppell all the way.
    Another versus article or topic
    Maybe: Morabito vs Coniglio???

  • Hepp locked in. Love a consistent scorer.

  • Already have Heppell and Broughton in my team… Would Enright or Birchall be a better option than Broughton? Heppell is locked

    • I would get Birchall if you don’t have one or two already who have the R13 bye. But then I would have one or two with the round 13 bye before Birchall. I hate byes. Have an idea for a rule for 2013 to fix the byes – to cover a player missing through the bye you are allowed to trade in any player for free but they automatically go out of your team and the bye player comes back in the week after. The catch is the player who you brought in for a week is not allowed to be in your team for the rest of the year. would mean a bit of research for each of the three weeks but it would also mean someone like Scott Selwood or Pearce Hanley would get some love. You would be unlikely to pick the best of the best in case you wanted them later in the year but you’d be able to get a good score and it would be a good three week stretch that would see some unique teams, strategies and a whole lot of in depth analysis on DT Talk…
      Nah, stupid idea but I still am going to post it to see what people who know more than me will say

  • Probably the best article i have seen. Should definitely get this bloke on to your DT TALK team.
    Great stuff Robdoog hope to see more of your articles.

  • Well done Robdog, you’re a star!
    Don’t pick either of them though (heads up).

    • the kings of leon here assisstant coach for every AFL club, he knows tha stuff. I am scared to keep heppell in my squad now…

  • ***390075***

    people join it !! will be competitive finished top 1k last season

  • Well, there’s that decided…

    • Although, does anyone have the gut feeling that Lyon will turn Broughts into a Fisher-type player???

    • Also, a player set to improve under Lyon is Suban. Averaged 93 at U-18s and 80 at TAC Cup, 4th year in the system, maybe used as a sweeper by Lyon???

      • Who knows, news out of freo has been non existent even here in the west. NAB cup will be interesting for freo.

  • 122339 league code
    I finished in top 5% last year but am going for the 3rd year BANG this year.
    Feel free to join
    Lovin the DT Talk boys.

  • What’s a better result?
    Gilbert & Conca or Heppell & Smedts?

  • Gilbert and Conca easily for points wise.

    If Smedts gets game time though and average around 60-70 I would take that for the money he will gain.

  • Off topic…

    Can someone please provide me with the link to the article that explains how the new trade thingy works, where you trade then sub from a different position works?

    I’ve looked all through the site and stuffed if I cant find it.

    Many thanks guys.

  • Hey guys, what you think of Dangerfield v Christensen?

  • league #545410 – feel free to join

  • Honestly neither

  • Have gone Heppell at the moment but can’t help but think with Dawson, Silvani and Macpharlin potentially in the Dockers backline, that Broughts will be free to be the running defender.

    Will have to wait till NAB cup.

  • Super article Robdog… BTW, They both suck in 2012 ;)

  • Thompson or Judd
    Franklin or Pavlich

  • It’d be great if you guys could do less of a 1v1 battle but sort out who is best out of: Enright, Suckling, Birchall, Carrazzo and all the boys of that Mid 400k price range (yes I do mean the Heath Shaw area).

    Take into consideration that Goddard has a locksmith working along side him.