Vested Interest: Part 2

Updated article – why?  Errors fixed, new information on bench positions, and Roy missed the first one (apparently it wasn’t on his Raydar).

The Thornley–Hopkins Trophy

I’ve renamed the award for most vests, as it looked like Andrew Gaff was not going to win his own trophy.  It’s now named after the most famous activation in AFL history.  Carlton trails Collingwood by 44 points at half time in the 1970 Grand Final.  The uninjured Bert Thornley is replaced by Ted Hopkins who kicks 4 goals as the Blues storm home to win.

Ted Hopkins later founds Champion Data introducing detailed statistics into the AFL, a necessary precursor to Dream Team, while Bert Thornley becomes a difficult trivia question.

But without Bert Thornley there would be no Ted Hopkins, no Champion Data and no DreamTeam.  Essendon would have won the most AFL premierships alone, Roy, Calvin and Warnie would just be 3 unknown pissheads in Tasmania, and I would have made more progress on various domestic tasks this winter.  Perhaps Bert’s got a lot to answer for.

Anyway these are the standings in the Award after round 13.

Vests no.: 1 2 3 4 5  
Adel 9 B.Martin B.Symes      
  singles P.Davis J.Petrenko      
    B.Smith C.Schmidt      
             
Bris 12 C.Beams J.O’Brien   R.Bewick  
  singles A.Cornelius        
             
Carl 12 M.Jamison   D.Armfield    
  singles A.Walker        
    A.Joseph        
    S.Hampson        
             
Coll 9 A.Krakouer A.Toovey      
  singles B.Dick        
    T.Goldsack        
    J.Blair        
    S.Buckley        
             
Ess 9 Lovett-Murray A.Monfries      
  singles A.Davey        
    K.Reimers        
    A.Browne        
    H.Hocking        
    B.Prismall        
             
Freo 10 J.Pitt R.Palmer      
  singles H.Ballantyne D.Roberton      
    J.Crichton        
    N.Lower        
             
Geel 15 T.Varcoe D.Milburn A.Christensen  
  singles          
             
GC 7 N.Krakouer D.Gorringe      
  singles A.Magin        
    J.Toy        
    D.Prestia        
    L.Patrick        
    R.Liddy        
             
Haw 16   B.Renouf   L.Breust  
  singles          
             
Melb 12 A.Maric        
  singles D.Nicholson        
    J.Watts        
    N.Jetta        
    J.Bennell        
    C.Garland        
             
North 6 L.Hansen J.Ziebell B.Speight    
  singles L.Anthony C.Garlett B.Cunnington  
             
Port 9 J.Surjan J.Davenport      
  singles D.Rodan A.Moore      
    D.Stewart C.Hitchcock      
             
Rich 11 B.Helbig B.Nason S.Tuck    
  singles S.Edwards        
    T.Hislop        
             
St.K 9 T.Ledger A.McQualter J.Cripps    
  singles B.Peake        
    T.Simpkin        
    R.Clarke        
             
Syd 7 G.Rohan L.Parker      
  singles T.DennisLane A.Everitt      
    S.Reid L.Jetta      
    M.Seaby        
             
WCE 11     C.Masten A.Gaff  
  singles     B.Ebert    
             
WB 13 B.Hall B.Moles N.Djerrkura    
  singles J.Hill        
             

Obviously different teams are using subs in different ways, so this information may help you to avoid vested players.  A reminder that there is no vestism in this Award – red vests are hated just as much as green vests by DT coaches.

Where is the sub likely to be named on Thursday night?

Well of the 202 subs so far:

  • 34 (17%) were named on the field,
  • 149 (74%) were named on the interchange bench,
  • 19 (9%) were not named in the listed 22, but came into the side as a late inclusion.

Which teams are more likely to name their subs on the field?

  • Collingwood and North have done it 5 times,
  • Carlton 4 times,
  • Fremantle 3 times,
  • Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Port, Richmond, St.Kilda and Western Bulldogs twice,
  • Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast only once, and
  • Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne never.

Is there a bias to the position number where the sub is named on the bench?

  • For a 4 man bench the proportions are (starting from left): 16%, 27%, 24%, 33%.
  • For a 7 man bench: 21%, 9%, 15%, 15%, 18%, 18%, 3%.

Note: Sometimes I didn’t have a record of the initial extended bench, only the reduced bench.

Jedi mind trick: to members of DT Talk Legends league – “this is a garbage article and a waste of time for me to read”.

Hope this helps the rest of you,

Nix

19 Comments

  • Great. This to be a weekly post now? and i’d just finished deciding who was going to be benched.

  • Adelaide only once good to see for Callinan

  • So Warnie, are these geen vests only or a combination bluey sort of colour vest?

    Porno-mo Masten is the lowest vested non-2010 draft pick, with his good mate Palmer a close second. They’re both off to GWS next season apparently.

    • Sorry Warnie, didn’t read the last sentence coz I can’t read properly.

  • I was under the impression that Didak had a vest at one stage this year?

  • Well it says there is no vestism – i.e. so both reds and greens. Also should be obvious more than 12 vests per team are being counted.

    Didak – yes 1 green, single vests aren’t named individually. This article is about finding patterns, not really worth listing all the single names.

    This article won’t be weekly, or not by me anyway. No real point as things don’t change that much week on week. I did it again this week because there were a few errors last week, plus people asked about bench order.

    I might send in an update later in the season, perhaps before the start of the finals.

    What I might do is use the info I have to make a prediction of the 2 most likely subs in each team, and post it the comments section of Get Off the Bench each week. But I’ll do it for myself for a few weeks first to see how I go – not worth doing unless I can prove to myself I am reasonably accurate.

    • Enjoyed that. Really well written, Nix. Bert certainly does have a lot to answer for.

      • Def worth tying in with the get off the bench article. One again, great work.

  • Great Article! I would have to say though that Green vests are much more hated than Red ones as far as DT points.

    If you were told your player was getting a vest but you got to pick the colour surely you’d go Red……

    But great article…..good luck predicting who the sub will be! :)

    • Is it possible to find out how many points Red vests have against Green? I’m second guessing myself now….

    • You’d pick red really … obviously you don’t own Knights, Bartel, Sylvia, Mundy, Selwood etc.

      • Yeah thats what I thought. Just had Selwood in Round One. Haven’t had anyone else knocked out, touch wood.