Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 22

Righteo – last week I had a cracker week in my predictions. Firstly I went out and went Goddard over Swan with my #1 pick. People said I was mad, but 30% of people listened and took his massive 140. 43% of people backed in the favourite in Swanny and took his 103. 2% of coaches took Montagna’s 139 and Ablett ‘let down’ me and 18% of coaches with his 95. But this week I will not let you down. You can not possible stuff it up this week. We have so many to pick from the problem is… who will score the big one? Join me lads and I’ll guide you through it. Lets roll oiiroirgg….

LEIGH MONTAGNA

Vs Adelaide @ AAMI

Why? Because he’s back! His form hasn’t been great but after his 139 last week, it’s safe to say that Leigh is back after his last two scores before that of 67 and 102. He loves playing the Crows as well. He averages a massive 132 in his last 3 against them with previous scores of 151, 118, 127, 127, 122 averaging 129 in his last 5 against them. Put that with what he does at AAMI. He has only played at AAMI only once in 2010 and that day he had 126. Before that in 2009 he went 77 and 127, not too bad.  But the biggest thing I reckon is what happened last time he played the Crows in Rd. 10 this year. He had his highest EVER DT score = 151 (38d, 5g). Reilly tagged Dal Santo and let Leigh run mad. Now he probably won’t get 151 again as he kicked 5g in that, which is rare for Montagna.
Why Not? Got nothing here
Final Thought – Last week he nearly got a personal best in touches with 42d, and with that coming off his best of 151 last time he played them, he should be awesome.
Predicted Score – 135

GARY ABLETT

Vs West Coast @ Skilled Stadium

Why? Because Gary knows how important Rd. 22 is when it comes to adding up Brownlow votes! But seriously. His form is good with an average of 115 in the last 3 weeks this year. He loves playing the Eagles despite the attention they give him. Last time they met (Rd. 11, 2010) he was tagged by the Selwood bro’s as Gary had 24d for his 110pts. His previous score here against them are very nice… 110, 155 then we go back to 2008 for his 109, 147, then 2007 for his 104. Which give Ablett an average of 125 in his last 3 against them. He play at home this week too and has scored well there this year, averaging 119 in his last 3 there and a massive 132 there for the year.
Why Not? Last week he had 95 – his 2nd lowest score of 2010. He saved himself with a huge 43pt last term and if you can look past that. Then good… Cause I can!
Final Thought – Lock, load and FIRE. Refer to my opening sentence and those previous scores on the Eagles. Rosa and McGinnty might try to tag him, and maybe Scott Selwood, but will it really matter?
Predicted Score – 127

BRENDON GODDARD

Vs Adelaide @ AAMI

Why? Cause you should have locked him in last week and now you feel either.. guilty, stupid or just suicidal. He averages 124 in his last 3 this year with that 140 last week only 30% of coaches collected. He had 29d, 10m, 5t, 2g last week and is doing whatever he likes at the moment. Last time he played the Crows he had 122 starting at CHF. He had 29d, 9m (very similar to last week). He love playing the Crows too with previous scores of 122, 121, 64, 136, 141. Now, if we be really generous to Brendon and take out that dirty 64, he’d actually average 130 against them over that period which goes back to 2006.
Why Not? Lets put that 64 back in and look at how much he stinks at AAMI. He got that 64 last time he played the Crows at AAMI which was in 2009. He had a 67 at AAMI this year and only 82 and that 64 there in 2009. In fact he has played at AAMI Stadium 7 times in his career to only average 77 there over that time.
Final Thought – Form and history is good enough, but the ground is big concern for me for some reason. As good as he might be… I’m being cautious and going elsewhere.
Predicted Score – 112

JIMMY BARTEL

Vs West Coast @ Skilled Stadium

Why? Oh my! Oh my GOD. I jst can not belive what I am seeing I am ty pijg too fast. Settle V8. His last few scores against the Eagles are AMAZING. 116, 111, 122, 107, 117, 144, 129. Yep AMAZING. Last time he played them he had that 116 with 30d and 8t. Surely another big one on these guys again.
Why Not? His form.  Averaging  just 93 in his last 3 games this year Jimmy has been struggling with just 40% of his scores in the last 5 games over 100+. Headshake. Another reason in that he is back at Skilled. Last year Jimmy averaged 120 there, and then averaged 116 there in 2009. But this year he is struggling at his home court with an average of 94 for the year and he actually averages just 91 there in his last 5.
Final Thought – Bugger me those numbers against the Eagles are amazing.. but his form will turn you away here, bloody sad though Jimmy, cause at the start of the year I would have had you locked in for this game.
Predicted Score – 108

DANE SWAN

Vs Carlton @ MCG

Why? Because he has got you this far in the season… why would you change now? His previou scores on the Hawks are good with a 119 in his last this year (rd. 4) and add that to the 141 he had on them in 2009. The day he had his 119 (34d, 4m), he was actually the highest scorer for the match and Gary Moss was the selected Hawk to tag. He doesn’t even play anymore and that day he went to Didak, as this shows who the Hawks rate as a danger. Swan did get some attention from Ellis though who is a Hawk who spends most of his time up forward.  5 Collingwood players cracked the 100+ that day as they won by 47pts. His form has been great with an average of 115 in his last 3 this year. Plus, he’s back at the MCG where this big nut has averaged 119 in his last 5 there this year.
Why Not? It took Swanny 13mins last week to get a touch, that would be his longest drought this year, surely! (umm but he did get to 30pts for the quarter). Righteo… he had 103 last week which was his lowest score in his last 12 games, but seriously… I’m struggling here.
Final Thought – If you have him, reward the man you called upon all season long. History is great and his form is not at the Swanny level we all love (150+) but he should get the job done again.
Predicted Score – 126

JOEL SELWOOD

Vs West Coast @ Skilled Stadium

Why? His form is hot as a milo that you have microwaved for 10mins. He averages 124 in his last 5 this year with 113 and 139 in his last 2 with a low of just 96 in his last 9.
Why Not? He did have 103 last time he played the Eagles but for some reason that 100+ score is his only ton against them in his short career of 5 games. They are his 2nd worst team to play DT wise (behind Port) and should be avoided based on that alone.
Final Thought – There are better options this week unfortunately. But it is hard to turn your back on a dude running this hot.
Predicted Score – 99

MATTHEW BOYD

Vs Essendon @ Etihad

Why? His form has been ok. 110, 112, 82 in his last 3 for an average of 101. As I said.. “been ok”. He does average 125 at Etihad in his last 3 there and has scored 100+ in 90% of his game there this year. But the good news ends here I’m afraid.
Why Not? He only averages 93 on the Bombers in his last 3 and the Bombers are his equal worst team to play over his career of 11 games.  Last time he played these guys he had just 75 (which was at Eti) and just so happens to be his worst score of 2010 in Rd. 10. He went head to head with Prismal and had just 24d.
Final Thought – You can’t pick someone who has only averaged 103 in the last 3 weeks and is playing one of their worst DT teams. Unless you’re mad.
Predicted Score – 94

LENNY HAYES

Vs Adelaide @ AAMI

Why? He loves playing the Crows. MEGA LOVES IT. He averages 114 in his last 3 against them with an amazing previous scores of 116, 134, 91, 102, 146, 125, 125. Lenny also loves playing at AAMI believe it or not. With his last 2 scores there being 105 and 130 Lenny should fire another big one again. Last time he played them he had 116 (27d, 10t) and went head to head with Scottie Thompson, which would be perfect if that happens again, plus, 7 Saints cracked the ton that day too (rd. 10 this year). “But Calvin, Lenny rested last week, and you rule”… thanks mate, and yeah Lenny did rest last week and last year he didn’t play Rd. 21 either. Then in Rd. 22 he came back for a 127 which was against Melbourne. So don’t worry about that my friend.
Why Not? Cause he costed me my final last week. ARGG. That’s’ the only reason I have!
Final Thought – Yeah… I’d lock with confidence here.
Predicted Score – 125

PAUL CHAPMAN

Vs West Coast @ Skilled Stadium

Why? He had 127 last week which just so happens to be his highest score in his last 7 matches this year. He averages 109 on these guys in his last 2 games with 112 in his last against them in Rd. 11 this year. That day he had a huge 36d, 5m. On that day Beau Waters also had 155pts with 33d, 17m (thought I’d throw that in). His two lowest scores this year are still just 88 and 99 which shows how good he is. He is back at Skilled Stadium too this week and we already know how good Chappy has been there this year… for those who have forgotten. He has averaged 118 there in his last 3 with a season average there of a massive 127.
Why Not? Cause you think he might get rested or you think his hammy will twang or you think that you just think too much.  So stop thinking you crazy coconut.
Final Thought – Reliable, tough, and he’s back at SS. Could give you anything between 100 and 140.
Predicted Score – 120

Yep – like an explotion! BOOM. I hope you have enjoyed Calvin’s Captain for 2010. I’ll see you over the pre-season and then here with my pirates hat on in 2011. Remember that DT TALK is the place to be for all the best DT stuff. Thanks again for your love this year and the shit you have given me ha ha, I love it. Take care and good luck in your last week! Let’s hopefully do what Montagna will do and go out with a BANG.., Boom Tish.

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