Class of 2010 – Defenders

If you are anything like me than you are having a hell of a time trying to nail that defensive line this year (Screw you Demetriou and your stupid round 13 BYE). The likes of Goddard, Scotland, Carrazzo, Deledio, Suckling and Birchall all share the bye (6 of the top 10 averaging defenders from last year) so I think that we are all trying to find some different options and some value.

After the half decent games of both Hargreave and Duffman over the weekend, it got me thinking…there is a whole bunch of players that were super stars in 2010 and for varying reasons had an ordinary (in some cases very ordinary 2011).

So time to look at some analysis of the darlings of yesteryear..When the chip kick was king, when the +6 was a common occurrence, When Lake scored 192!!

I want to cast our minds back to those glory days of 2010 and have highlighted 8 defenders that were very solid, if not great performers and due to last season’s form come with a hefty discount into 2012. Are they worth the gamble?

I have looked into those that had significant drops, averaged 80 or over in 2010 (Hargrave the exception) and are currently priced under 400k.

Let’s start with the most expensive first:

Andrew (Bomber hates me) Mackie $392,300

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $435,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	78.7	19.7	5.5	6
2010	87.1	22	6.5	10
Diff	-8.4	-2.3	-1	-4

I like Mackie, he provides an alternative to Enright,doesn’thave the BYE in Rnd 13 and has been around for long enough to show a level of consistency.

Pros:

He is consistent; at worst he is going to give you a high 70 average, has a Rnd 12 BYE, I think he will play more of a link man role down back rolling up to the wing and providing an outside receiver role. Averaged 83 in the last half of the season

Cons:

He is awkwardly priced, for an extra $20-$25k you can get Broughton/Adcock/Heppell/Houli etc. Can he lift his average?

Verdict:

I reckon this might just be his year, second year under Scott. He is currently in my squad.

Jordan (Never trust anyone with 2 first names) Russell $352,400

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $400,00

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	71.3	16.7	4.6	3
2010	80.6	22	6.5	9
Diff	-9.3	-5.3	-1.9	-6

All reports have Russell tearing up the track and had a very good hit out in the recent blues intra club.

Pros:

Ratts likes him and he is highly rated at the club. Was a top 10 draft pick. Can find the pill and is a good rebounder.

Cons:

His disposal is hit and miss (who cares for DT) but can mean that he may be scrutinized as a link man as they look more at a Yarran type. Last played in rnd 16 last year.

Verdict:

With Yarran and Scotland playing the sweeping role down back, where does he fit. If there was ever a year for him to stand up it is 2012.

Paul (Scream at computer) Duffield $347,200

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $440,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	70.2	16.9	3.5	5
2010	88.7	21	5.5	10
Diff	-18.5	-4.1	-2	-5

Ahhh… the Duffman…what the hell happened? He is right up with Broughts on the love to hate scale. Showed good signs on the weekend.

Pros:

We all know that he can do it. He was bloody good in 2010. New Coach…does this make it a positive…maybe. Doesntshare the Bye of Death!

Cons:

Duffman..WTF happened last year. You’re the Duffman!. Has he lost his Mojo?

Verdict:

It is a brave coach that picks him. But with great risk goes great reward. Pass for mine.

Sam (Say Cheese) Gilbert $345,600

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $440,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	68.9	17.1	4.8	4
2010	88.6	22	7.5	13
Diff	-19.7	-4.9	-2.7	-9

Apart from Lake, perhaps the most dramatic drop off last year. Certainly a few coaches were burnt…badly.

Pros:

The kid can play, he has all of the right DT attributes, New coach may actually realise where he plays his best football.

Cons:

Where do we start..Schoolgirl, Photos etc… Will leave the rest alone, but had a fair bit outside of footy going on. Lyon thought he was a forward…BAP BOW. He plays the same position as Goddard..Who would you pick?

Verdict:

See above…a lot playing in his head that affected him. If you don’t go with Goddard, I reckon he is worth the risk.

Beau (Elastoplast) Waters $338,200

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $435,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	73.4	18	4.8	2
2010	87.5	21	7	9
Diff	-14.1	-3	-2.2	-7

Has been around the scene for awhile and can score but also can get injured.

Pros:

I think we can all remember his last game last year against the eventual premiers, 38 disposals, 11 marks and 140 glorious DT points. Plays the right role in the Eagles back line.

Cons:

Gets a paper cut studying the form guide that can keep him out for 6 weeks. Finds ways of injuring himself.

Verdict:

Started the season slowly and was injured for a large chunk of the year. Worth a chance I reckon, however current nursing a minor elbow injury (yep elbow…don’t ask me how)

Nick (China Knees) Malceski $329,300

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $425,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	66.6	14.9	4.3	1
2010	85.6	23	5	10
Diff	-19.0	-8.1	-0.7	-9

Well, where do we start…was a really good player in his prime… but it has past.

Pros:

Beautiful disposal, when he had his own legs, played the sweeper roles for the Swannies.

Cons:

His legs are made of paddle pop sticks. Just not worth the risk. Only played 12 games in 2011

Verdict:

Guess?… I will even give you multiple choice
a) His knees are stable as the Greek economy
b) If he was a horse the curtain would have been drawn
c) Kermit the frog has more chance of standing up on his own

Brian (WTF happened?..) Lake $255,200

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $475,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	51.6	11.6	3.4	0
2010	95.1	21	10	14
Diff	-43.5	-9.4	-6.6	-14

The greatest fall from DT grace I think we have seen. This guy made Christina Aguilera look like Mother Teresa…that is how much of a DT Slapper he was.

Pros:

He was the king of the 6+ and invented the 12+, would find space, backed his judgement and got the ball..a lot. He scored 192..yep not a misprint (41 disposals, 22 marks). New coach = new Brian?

Cons:

His passion, mind and ability all went in the blink of an eye. Just don’t know that he could ever get back there.

Verdict:

Could be the greatest buy of the year…on one condition…he changes his name! It worked last time.

Ryan (Remember me…Hello…anyone..) Hargrave $232,700

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $380,000

	Ave	Disp	Marks	90+ Games
2011	58.8	17.2	3.4	0
2010	76.8	20	6	7
Diff	-18.0	-2.8	-2.6	-7

Had buried Hargrave alongside Josh Drummond as one of those guys that showed a good DT game but never really lived up to what they could have. Then he showed enough on the weekend to start featuring in a few teams.

Pros:

Has been a very consistent defender for the doggies over a number of years. Showed good promise on the weekend. New Coach?

Cons:

Only put 5 games together last year. New Coach?

Verdict:

If his body holds up he will make you money and put some good consistent scores on the board. Doggies are not gonna set the world on fire and the ball will be in their defence half for a fair amount of time. Probably worth a shot.

So in their glory days they could hold their own. To give you an idea on how they compare to today’s premiums.

In 2010 the abovementioned guys averaged between:

• 20-23 disposals, 6-10 marks and scored over 90, 44% of the time

The class of 2011 (Scotland, Goddard, Deledio, Birchall, Suckling, Enright, Carrazzo) averaged between:

• 21-26 disposals, 4-7 marks and scored over 90, 51% of the time.

If they get back to their best, I believe that there are definitely some viable options amongst them.

So the question remains, Do you have a spot for any of these guys in your back line? Who are you willing to take the punt on?…

And before anyone raises it…yes I left Broughton out…it was on purpose… I can’t bring myself to type his name again.

Cheers

Rainman

Follow me on Twitter (@robrainbird1)

p.s. Stay tuned later in the week when I focus on the Class of 2010 – Midfielders.