Weekend Forecast – Round 7

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Plenty of carnage for coaches to navigate through this week, in particular, the ruck department. Brodie Grundy is the biggest issue out of them all, as he will be out for 10-12 weeks with a PCL. On top of that, Tristan Xerri will miss about a month with a hotspot on his foot, Jack Hayes tore his ACL, Tim English will still miss a week or two with a hamstring injury, Sean Darcy is out with concussion, and Marshall is out with a bad cork. There was also a couple of rookies that were either injured or dropped/managed that coaches need to navigate their way through also.

 

Now, let’s get into the Weekend Forecast.

West Coast vs Richmond @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, clear

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Jeremy McGovern, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Greg Clark

OUT

Elliot Yeo (Injured), Luke Foley (HS Protocols), Bailey Williams (Injured), Zac Langdon (Omitted)

Richmond

IN

Kane Lambert, Ivan Soldo, Maurice Rioli, Sydney Stack, Dylan Grimes

OUT

Robbie Tarrant (Managed), Thomson Dow (Injured), Rhyan Mansell (Omitted), Matthew Parker (Omitted), Trent Cotchin (Managed), Jack Ross (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Alex Witherden

I did say he was my pick for a POD defender last week, and scored well again with a 117. He took 7 kick ins to Hurn’s 2, so he clearly is favoured with the kick in duties, and with the ball being in their defence a lot this season, it gives him a solid floor. Still only in 0.8% of teams.

Jayden Short

Bounced back from his 72 against Adelaide with a 127 against Melbourne last week. I will flag though that there was plenty of kick ins with Melbourne very inaccurate, and all of the Richmond defenders scored well last week. In saying that, Short has another great matchup against West Coast, so he should be great once again.

Greg Clark

Finally making his debut for the Eagles on Friday night. I always like to watch a rookie play a game first before bringing them in, but with Greg Clark, I think you can bring him in straight away. If not for the shoulder injury in preseason, he most likely would have played round 1.

Other players to watch: Tim Kelly, Patrick Naish, Luke Strnadica, Maurice Rioli

Geelong vs Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

 

OUT

Luke Dahlhaus (Medi-Sub)

Fremantle

IN

Lloyd Meek, Josh Treacy

OUT

Bailey Banfield (Omitted), Sean Darcy (Injured), Matt Taberner (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Nathan O’Driscoll

Even though he has only scored 68 and 56 in his last 2, he has got those scores in essentially 3 quarters. When he scored the 68 against Essendon, he was on 65 at 3QT, and last week against Carlton, he scored 0 points in the last quarter. Tough matchup against Geelong in Geelong.

Mitch Duncan

Has quite gone bang yet, as he has failed to score 91 or more points in his 5 games so far. Surely a player like Mitch Duncan will go bang at some point, and he is really cheap at 744k. I would want to see him get a big score before I considered him, but one to watch.

Andrew Brayshaw

I expect Andrew Brayshaw to get the Mark O’Connor tag this week. This season though, he has been able to score okay with the extra attention, scoring 95 against West Coast with Nelson tag, and 110 against GWS with the Ash tag, so he can score with a tag, but I wouldn’t expect anything over 110 if O’Connor does indeed go to him.

Other players to watch: Sam De Koning, Tom Stewart, Cam Guthrie, Oliver Dempsey, Will Brodie

 

Adelaide vs GWS @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

 

OUT

Will Hamill (Medi-Sub)

GWS

IN

Jesse Hogan, Cooper Hamilton

OUT

Tanner Bruhn (Omitted), Jake Stein (Omitted), Matt De Boer (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Tim Taranto

I thought with Toby Greene coming back into the team, it would make Taranto’s role even better, but in fact it made it worse. He had his lowest score of the year, and his CBA’s went down from the previous week. Bruhn has been dropped this week, and the Giants have been bad so far this season. One way to fix that is get one of your best midfielders back in the guts.

Rory Laird

Tough matchup against the Bulldogs last week, and still managed to score 110. That was with 21 handballs and only 9 kicks, amd 3 free kicks against, so that could have been an even better score. I think he is as consistent as they come, so if you want that, as well as him being a unique (1.1% ownership), then Lairdy could be your man.

Braydon Preuss

With all of the ruck chaos this week, the majority of teams will have Max Gawn as R1, and Braydon Preuss as R2. With Flynn in the side last week, his scoring wasn’t affected much, as he still scored 105, but Marshall was injured, and Hayes went off early with injury, so that score is a little inflated, but there aren’t many other rucks scoring better than him at the moment, and he is making a ton of money.

Other players to watch: Toby Greene, Jordan Dawson, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, Reilly O’Brien, Ben Keays, Matt Crouch, Josh Kelly, Tom Green, Finn Callaghan, Cooper Hamilton

 

Melbourne vs Hawthorn @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

Jake Lever, Jack Viney, Tom McDonald

OUT

Luke Jackson (HS Protocols), Harrison Petty (HS Protocols), Kysaiah Pickett (HS Protocols), Tom Sparrow (HS Protocols)

Hawthorn

IN

Jackson Callow, Lachlan Bramble

OUT

Josh Ward (Managed), Denver Grainger-Barras (Managed), Finn Maginness (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

Showed signs last week of him getting back to his best, but still only had 15 of 28 CBA’s (53.6%). I want to see that number go up a little more before I really look at bringing him in, but he is cheap at 839k.

Max Gawn

I think this could be a bloodbath on Saturday arvo for Maximus. Luke Jackson is out due to HS Protocols, Gawn will be up against Max Lynch and Conor Nash as solo ruck, he plays the Hawks who give up heaps of points, Max averages 119.9 in his 8 career games against the Hawks, it’s at the MCG, and his last 3 scores of 140, 132, and 119 are huge. He is an amazing VC option if you can, but if not, just whack the C on him.

Clayton Oliver

As mentioned above, Hawks give up truckloads of points, especially to midfielders, with him and Christian Petracca to be the main beneficiaries this week. If you want to go against the crowd with a Gawn as VC, Oliver is a great one to chuck the VC on. Has been great in every game, apart from his 68 he scored against Port Adelaide in round 4.

Other players to watch: Jake Bowey, Connor Macdonald, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca, James Sicily, Will Day, Jackson Callow

 

St Kilda vs Port Adelaide @ Cazalys Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 24°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Tom Campbell, Paddy Ryder

OUT

Jarrod Lienert (Omitted), Jack Hayes (Injured), Rowan Marshall (Injured)

Port Adelaide

IN

 

OUT

Lachie Jones (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Zak Butters

Reports where that he had gastro last week, so that would explain the really poor score and only 67% game time. He will be better than that this week, but a tough matchup with St Kilda, and the game being at Cazalys Stadium, could impact his scoring this week.

Connor Rozee

Has finally gotten the midfield role, and his scoring has also gone up, with scores of 113 and 119 in his last 2 games. Priced at 553k I am not apposed to watching him for one more week before bringing him in, but he is a good underpriced option to look at this week. Only costs you 30k to go Xerri up to him.

Ollie Wines

Returned last week with a 118, and has now fallen to 856k. Still has a breakeven of 133, so you can wait another week or two before bringing him in, but you could go early as he is underpriced. 2 tough games in his next 2 against the Saints and Bulldogs probably means that you could hold off until after Port’s bye in round 12.

Other players to watch: Dan Houston, Jade Gresham, Jack Steele, Jack Sinclair, Sam Hayes, Travis Boak, Marcus Windhager

 

Carlton vs North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Liam Stocker, Jack Silvagni, Lochie O’Brien, Matthew Kennedy

OUT

Jordan Boyd (Omitted), Will Setterfield (Omitted), Matthew Cottrell (Omitted), Marc Pittonet (Injured), Luke Parks (Injured)

North Melbourne

IN

Jaidyn Stephenson, Callum Coleman-Jones, Aiden Bonar

OUT

Ben McKay (Suspension), Eddie Ford (Medi-Sub), Atu Bosenavulagi (Omitted), Tristan Xerri (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Tarryn Thomas

Returned last week and only scored a 51, but I still have my eye on him as a potential bargain. Now down to 577k, he is too cheap. I would want to see 1-2 weeks of good scores before pouncing, so keep an eye on him.

Patrick Cripps

Back after a one week rest, and Crippa went and scored 123. That means that if you remove his injury affected score, his lowest score in his 4 games is 112, with 3 of those scores over 120. Still cheap at 811k, he is a great option to bring in, even if you did trade him out.

George Hewett

There are reports that he got a calf cork, similar to Dangerfield, and had a “significant limp” according to Mitch Cleary, so he is one to watch as the game on Saturday night gets closer for any potential late out. If he plays, he has a great matchup against North Melbourne, but make sure you have cover on your bench.

Other players to watch: Paul Curtis, Sam Docherty, Sam Walsh, Corey Durdin, Jason Horne-Francis

Collingwood vs Gold Coast @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Tyler Brown, Mason Cox, Trent Bianco, Oliver Henry, Aiden Begg

OUT

Nathan Kreuger (Injured), Brodie Grundy (Injured)

Gold Coast

IN

Jy Farrar, Rory Atkins, Malcolm Rosas, Darcy Macpherson, Jack Lukosius

OUT

Josh Corbett (Injured), Wil Powell (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Taylor Adams

I don’t understand what is going on with Taylor Adams so far this season. He is only averaging 77.8 for the season, and has only had one game where he played over 75% game time, and the last 2 weeks he has played 66% and 67% game time respectively. He is scoring decent enough when he is on the field, the problem is he is off a lot, so until we see his game time increase back over 80%, we can’t consider him.

Touk Miller

After not tackling for 2 weeks, Touk was back at it last week with 8 tackles and 111 points against Brisbane last week. He did need a big 4th quarter to get the 111, but he is now down 150k from his starting price and is an option to seriously consider. His breakeven is still 131 so you can wait a week, but he won’t be cheap for long.

Jordan De Goey

De Goat has been playing a full time mid role this season, but even more so over the last 2 weeks. He attended 28 of 32 CBA’s (87.5%) against Brisbane and 27 of 31 CBA’s (87.1%) against Essendon. His scoring hasn’t quite hit the 105-110+ yet, but after his interrupted preseason, I think we will see bigger scores as the season goes on.

Other players to watch: Jack Crisp, Nick Daicos, Jarrod Witts, Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson

 

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Western Bulldogs

IN

Laitham Vandermeer, Mitch Wallis, Jordon Sweet, Hayden Crozier, Roarke Smith

OUT

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (Omitted), Anthony Scott (HS Protocols)

Essendon

IN

Zach Reid, Tom Cutler, Nick Bryan

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Nic Martin

Just keeps on keeping on, with another 86 against Collingwood last week. We can all continue to safely have him on field until we see otherwise. Breakeven is still only 41 so there is still cash to make.

Jack Macrae

Considering he was on 47 points at QT, a score of 88 is really disappointing, but MARS always throws up some really weird scores. I expect a big bounceback this week against Essendon back under the roof of Marvel, where he loves to play. Has good history against Essendon, averaging 111.5 in his 8 career games against them.

Josh Dunkley

The opposite to Macrae, Dunkley started with a 44 point opening quarter, and continued scoring to end up on 138. That now takes his average for the season up to 119.8, and he still hasn’t scored under 100 all season, and I expect that streak to continue against Essendon on Sunday afternoon.

Other players to watch: Ben Hobbs, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale, Zach Merrett, Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, Darcy Parish, Robbie McComb

 

Sydney vs Brisbane @ SCG

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, showers expected (76% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

Tom Papley, Callum Sinclair, Sam Reid, Dylan Stephens, Will Gould

OUT

Logan McDonald (Injured), Paddy McCartin (Injured)

Brisbane

IN

Nakia Cockatoo, Deven Robertson, Tom Fullarton, James Madden

OUT

Kai Lohmann (Injured

 

Players to Watch

Callum Mills

Went bonkers last week against the Hawks with a 162. I know the Hawks are easy to score against, but 162 is next level. I did say in preseason he was my pick to average 115+, and he could potentially do that from here on. That achilles issue is still something that I think of, but by the looks of it, he looks great.

Luke Parker

Had a nice bump in CBA’s last week, attending 21 of 28 CBA’s. If he can continue this role, then he will be a good shout to be in the top 6 averaging forwards. Still underpriced at 739k.

Keidean Coleman

Would have been in many peoples teams to start the season, but after his hamstring injury in the AAMI Series, we had to wait on him. Well, he came back last week and scored an 83 from only 69% game time, and looked good in a wet weather game. Wet weather is expected again this week, so you could wait another week on Coleman, but he is really cheap at 370k, and has DEF/FWD flexibility which will be really handy.

Other players to watch: Jake Lloyd, Justin McInerney, Dayne Zorko, Isaac Heeney, Jarryd Lyons, Lachie Neale

 

My Trades

J Hayes -> Coleman

Xerri -> De Goey

or

J Hayes/Hough -> Greg Clark

Xerri -> Cripps

 

So all week I have been pretty confident with my first pair of trades. De Goey has played a full time mid role pretty much all season, but as I mentioned earlier, the last 2 weeks: 28 of 32 CBA’s (87.5%) against Brisbane and 27 of 31 CBA’s (87.1%) against Essendon. I think he will be a top 6 forward so I am confident in bringing him in. However, I have seen that the weather at the SCG for Coleman on Saturday isn’t great, so I have looked at bringing in Greg Clark over Coleman instead, playing O’Driscoll on field, and bringing in Cripps. So I am undecided at this moment, but it will be one of the above combos.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions about your starting teams, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for round 7!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang