Weekend Forecast – Round 5

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Happy Easter everyone! This is the first week where most coaches will have at least one bullet, but more likely a couple of bullets. Preuss being suspended for the week throws a spanner in the works for coaches that made the move last week putting him at R2, but we have a couple of options to fill that hole this week. I would hold Preuss as he has a ton of cash still to make. We also had the best player in the competition to start the season, Patrick Cripps, go off at the end of the 1st quarter with a hamstring injury, even though it isn’t too serious, means coaches need to think about what they are going to do with him. It is a big call, you could hold him as it may only be 1 week, but if you trade, you can bring in essentially any player you want if you have the cash.

 

We had our last Thursday night game last night for a while, so lets quickly recap what happened:

Brisbane vs Collingwood @ The Gabba

Jack Crisp (125) – Since the round 1 disaster, Crispy has really picked things up, averaging 108.5 in his last 4 games. Looks back to his best. If you VC’d him, you take this.

Lachie Neale (119) – Great score from Lachie in his 200th game, with a huge second quarter including 14 disposals and 49 points. If you had him VC, I think you take this score, because I certainly will be.

Dayne Zorko (109) – Should gain DEF status for next round, and will be cheaper than what he can do. Slowly getting over his pre season injury.

Jordan De Goey (101) – Didn’t think he would attend so many CBA’s with a host of Collingwood forwards out, but only Lachie Neale attended more (29 CBA’s) than De Goey (28 CBA’s) out of everyone. Not quite hitting the same ceiling he did last year, but the role is still there.

Taylor Adams (92) – hOnly played 66% game time for a 92 which is impressive. Pendles was in there more tonight tagging Neale, but Adams is definitely one to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks as an underpriced option.

Nick Daicos (80) – hContinue to do what he does, and that is rack up the pill, gathering another 27 disposals. DEF status coming next week.

Pat Lipinski (73) – hBeen quite disappointing after round 1, with scores of 69, 84, 76 and now 73. A trade out option next week as he isn’t hitting his round 1 numbers.

Reef McInnes (62) – Solid enough and responded after his low score of 19 last week. Will make some good cash this week.

Brodie Grundy (54) – What on earth was that? Hugely disappointing to only barely reach 50, and only played 74% game time as he got stuck on the bench for long periods.

Noah Answerth (43) – And the D6 troubles continue. If you had Answerth as your D6, you would have been happy with his solid scores over the first month, but last night was not the one. Could be moved on by owners next week.

Kai Lohmann (39) – Didn’t set the world on fire, and might not be in the team next week.

Now, lets get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

North Melbourne

IN

Eddie Ford

OUT

Cameron Zurhaar (Injured), Aiden Bonar (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Zaine Cordy, Riley Garcia

OUT

Laitham Vandermeer (Injured), Mitch Wallis (Medi-Sub), Louis Butler (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Aaron Hall

With Jack Ziebell moving forward last week, Hall took 6 of a possible 8 kick ins. This should continue, which can only mean good things for him, and a good matchup against the Bulldogs today means he could be back to 120+.

Josh Dunkley

Dunks has been on fire to start the season. Last week, he had 11 marks and only 1 tackle. The week before, he had 5 marks and 11 tackles. It is only a matter of time before he puts it together and gets a 150+, and that could very well be today.

Jack Macrae

After scaring many coaches with a -1 point quarter and playing on the wing, Macrae went back to his customary role and went big with a 130. Attended 19 of 26 CBA’s, which was the most by any midfielder on the ground. Great option if you are looking for an underpriced uber premium.

Tristan Xerri

Only scored 59 points last week, but he did that from essentially 3 quarters (was off for a lot of the 3rd quarter). He will be fine as he is still operating at North Melbourne’s no.1 ruck, and still has cash to make.

Bailey Smith

Currently in the running to add FWD status next week, as he is sitting at 32.9% FWD time (you need 35%+ to gain a position). Let’s hope he does as he would be a lock for a top 6 forward spot, but he is performing that well that he is averaging 131, which is the highest average by any player this season.

Other players to watch: Luke McDonald, Adam Treloar, Jason Horne-Francis, Jy Simpkin, Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli

West Coast vs Sydney @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 24°C, clear

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Elliot Yeo, Harry Edwards, Tim Kelly, Bailey Williams, Jamie Cripps, Luke Shuey

OUT

Brady Hough (Omitted), Luke Edwards (Injured), Jeremy McGovern (HS Protocols), Jake Waterman (Omitted), Xavier O’Neill (Omitted), Connor West (Omitted), Nic Naitanui (Injured)

Sydney

IN

Logan McDonald

OUT

Lance Franklin (Injured), Josh Kennedy (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Justin McInerney

He was the main reason Sydney won the game last week. Was thrown into the midfield and 14 disposals and 52 points in the last quarter. Ended up with a 107, and is an option to consider being priced at 572k.

Luke Parker

In the mix to gain FWD status, but if he scores like he did last week, it won’t even matter. Only 42 points and only averaging 78.8 for the year, he isn’t performing great, but he will be cheap as a FWD that if he can start scoring better, would be an option to consider.

Callum Mills

Played 87% game time last week, which is his highest of the season. Working his way back from the achilles injury he picked up late last season, Mills is starting to heat up, and with a juicy run up until the bye, he is underpriced based on what we have seen him do last season.

Isaac Heeney

I have a slight worry Heeney could spend a bit more time deep forward this week with Buddy out of the team. He should still score well, but I think his points will take a slight decrease if he does play that role.

Hugh Dixon

With Naitanui out for a while, Dixon’s job security looks a bit better, but with Bailey Williams back in the team, and Oscar Allen only 2 weeks away, we may only see Dixon for a couple of weeks, but with a -12 breakeven and a 75 last week, he will still make some nice cash.

Other players to watch: Tim Kelly, Patrick Naish, Willie Rioli, Jake Lloyd, Paddy McCartin, Nick Blakey, Elliot Yeo, Luke Foley

 

St Kilda vs Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Jack Higgins, Jack Hayes

OUT

Paddy Ryder (Suspension), Jimmy Webster (HS Protocols), Ryan Byrnes (Omitted)

Gold Coast

IN

Oleg Markov

OUT

Jack Lukosius (Injured), Rory Atkins (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Touk Miller

Has been poor by his standards over the last 2 weeks where he has been tagged, scoring 68 and 83 respectively. Should respond in a big way this week against the Saints at Marvel, where he loves to play, averaging 105.8 in his career at the venue.

Jack Steele

Finally went bang last week with a 130, which was his first score over 110 all season, even though he has gone 100+ in every game this season. I expect another big game against the Suns, who are the 2nd easiest team for midfielders to score against.

Matt Rowell

A role change has really seen Matt Rowell’s numbers take a fall since round one, with scores of 46, 87 and 66 since his 117 in round 1. He has a breakeven of 65 which means he isn’t likely to make much more cash, and can potentially be traded out.

Marcus Windhager

One of the few downgrade options we have this week, solid enough last week with a 54, and good flexibility being a MID/FWD, but I worry about his job security, with Hunter Clark, Jack Billings, and Zak Jones all nearing a return.

Jack Hayes

With Ryder out for the next 2 weeks through suspension, Jack Hayes gets another crack, even though he was stiff to be dropped in the first place. Good matchup against the Suns, and should be good for a 60+, and a good replacement to play on field for Preuss owners this week.

Other players to watch: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Jack Sinclair, Jade Gresham, Jarrod Witts, Malcolm Rosas

 

Adelaide vs Richmond @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 27°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

Shane McAdam, Sam Berry

OUT

Mitchell Hinge (Omitted), James Rowe (Omitted), Harry Schoenberg (Omitted)

Richmond

IN

Nick Vlastuin

OUT

Kamdyn McIntosh (HS Protocols), Josh Gibcus (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Jordan Dawson

Was solid last week with his 85. Had a really quiet 3rd quarter but still managed to get his way to 85.. I still think he is a little underpriced for what he can do for the rest of the season, and will be in the mix for a top 6 defender spot, and has a good matchup this week against Richmond.

Rory Laird

Lairdy was back to his best last week with a 123, but upped his gametime from 68% to 77%, and has back to back weeks with 30+ disposals. Crows have a tricky run, but Laird is as consistent as they come, and he could be in the top 8-10 mids by seasons end.

Jayden Short

Has gone bananas the last 3 weeks, with scores of 131, 118, and 125 in his last 3. Vlastuin back in this week could mean a slight decrease in his points, but he has a really good run of games up until his bye, and looks a top 2-3 defender so he is one of the best options in defence to bring in.

Ben Keays

3 scores of 130+ already this season, so I think it is fair to say Keays is the real deal. They had all of their midfielders back last week, and Keays still attended the most CBA’s. Really expensive, but he is so unique and just keeps getting it done.

Matt Crouch

His low time on ground is starting to frustrate his owners, and I can’t blame them. Has yet to play more than 75% in any game this season, and his scoring suffered last week with a 66. If you can move him up to an uber premium, then I think it is a move worth doing, but he should still be solid enough to keep hitting 80-85+ most weeks so if there are other issues to deal with, I think fix them first.

Other players to watch: Daniel Rioli, Josh Rachele, Reilly O’Brien, Hugo Ralphsmith

 

Melbourne vs GWS @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

Harrison Petty

OUT

Adam Tomlinson (Omitted), Toby Bedford (Medi-Sub)

GWS

IN

Nick Haynes, Finn Callaghan, Matt Flynn

OUT

Braydon Preuss (Suspension), James Peatling (Omitted), Jake Riccardi (Omitted), Isaac Cumming (HS Protocols)

 

Players to Watch

Tim Taranto

A sneaky option for owners that are trading Cripps this week. Taranto will be a top 2-3 forward, and Toby Greene is back next week so Taranto should be increased CBA’s and midfield time. Still expensive at 939k, but at worst he will continue what he is doing.

Stephen Coniglio

Struggled last week with a 61, but most Giants players struggled to score last week with a poor game against Fremantle. Giants need to get back on track, maybe not a win against Melbourne, but I think Cogs will be better than what he was last week.

Lachie Whitfield

Really concerned coaches last week when he was only on 29 points at half time, but looked back to his usual self and racked up 67 points to end up with a solid 96. Hopefully he can continue that 2nd half form up and start showing us why we picked him in our starting teams, and he should with Cumming being out this week.

Max Gawn

Maximus was back to his best last week, clunking marks, gathering touches around the ground for a big 140. He is up against Flynn this week with no Preuss, so he could be huge again this week.

Christian Petracca/Clayton Oliver

Which one will get the tag? My money would be on Petracca, but they normally tag Oliver, so who knows. Could the Giants just go head to head with the Melbourne midfield? If so, I think Petracca and Oliver should be good, but with the risk of the tag for either, I wouldn’t look at captaining either one this week.

Other players to watch: Angus Brayshaw, Josh Kelly, Tom Green, Jake Bowey, Finn Callaghan

 

Carlton vs Port Adelaide @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 27°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Corey Durdin, Paddy Dow, Marc Pittonet, Luke Parks, Jack Newnes, Matthew Cottrell

OUT

Patrick Cripps (Injured), Jordan Boyd (Omitted), Lachie Plowman (Omitted)

Port Adelaide

IN

Robbie Gray, Sam Hayes, Sam Skinner, Aliir Aliir, Jeremy Finlayson

OUT

Lachie Jones (HS Protocols), Ollie Wines (Illness)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Walsh

No Cripps could mean a big score incoming for Sam Walsh. Scored 83 points after quarter time when Cripps was off the field, and started looking back to his best, and with no Cripps this week, should get plenty of CBA’s.

George Hewett

Just continues to score well for us, and the race of the best midpricer between Hewett and Will Brodie is on. Both are performing well, and for Hewett, that is now back to back scores of 119 and 115 respectively. Not many defenders are doing that. He hasn’t had less than 28 disposals in any game so far, and if that continues, he will go from a midpricer to be a stepping stone for a premium, to be a season long keeper that will be a top 6 defender if he continues this form.

Zak Butters

Poor first half last week, but solid in the 2nd half with 50 points. No Wines this week, and not sure when he will be back, should mean more midfield time for Butters. Started the season of really well with 96 and 137 in his first 2 games, but followed up with a 59 and a 77. Should get back on track this week.

Travis Boak

This guy is a star! Just when people maybe thought, Butters more midfield time maybe he plays forward, Boaky says no, I am going to play even better. Averaging 125.8 to start the season, and doesn’t look like slowing down. No Wines puts more responsibility on Boak’s shoulders in the midfield, but whos to say he won’t continue this form. I think he is too expensive to bring in now in Classic, but if you want him, I can’t say no.

Zac Williams

Looks like the player Carlton have wanted to see since they signed him. 3 really good scores in a row now, 103, 98 and 137. Priced at 658k and a breakeven of 28, so should make money so you can either keep him till the byes or swap him in a few weeks to an uber defender. He has burned us in the past, but he looks really good at the moment.

Other players to watch: Sam Docherty, Matt Kennedy, Corey Durdin, Dan Houston, Adam Cerra, Jackson Mead

 

Essendon vs Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Kaine Baldwin, Ben Hobbs, Tom Cutler, Nik Cox

OUT

Will Snelling (Injured)

Fremantle

IN

Alex Pearce, Darcy Tucker, Caleb Serong, Nathan Wilson

OUT

Lachie Schultz (HS Protocols)

 

Players to Watch

Andrew Brayshaw

Many coaches thought his scoring would suffer with tags, but in back to back weeks he has beaten them and been solid with a 95 against West Coast with the Nelson tag and 110 against GWS with the Ash tag. He just seems to outwork the taggers each week and still get to a good score. Can he beat them every week? I guess we will find out, and I wonder if they send McGrath to him this week.

Nic Martin

Just continues to keep up his good form, with another 73 last week, and is already up to 422k with a breakeven still -7. He will continue to make us bulk cash for the next couple of weeks, and he is showing no signs of slowing down.

Will Brodie

As I said before, Will Brodie has been one of the best mid priced picks of the year. Has played more game time the last 2 weeks, but looks even more comfortable and that midfield bull at Fremantle. I wonder if he can keep averaging over 90+ for us, because if he does he could end up being a keeper and close to the top 6 forwards. If you don’t have him, I don’t think it is too late either, but it doesn’t feel good knowing he has already increased by 208k this season. Breakeven is still only 14.

Jye Caldwell

Unfortunately he isn’t getting enough CBA’s, which is surprising with Merrett out, and his scoring is suffering with 2 of his last 3 scores under 70. If you don’t have any other pressing issues, then I think you can move him on.

Nathan O’Driscoll

Check to see if he is named for Fremantle, as there is a chance he could be dropped. Would be incredibly stiff if he did after playing so well last week. He should hold, because that sends the wrong message to him that he can play well, but it doesn’t matter because you can be dropped anyway. If he holds, I think he can play on field as D6 this week, and if he holds, he is the clear best rookie option for the week with a breakeven of -32.

Other players to watch: Darcy Parish, Hayden Young, Sean Darcy, Heath Chapman

 

Hawthorn vs Geelong @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 17°C, rain likely (91% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

Chad Wingard, Jacob Koschitzke, Tom Phillips, Liam Shiels

OUT

Will Day (Injured)

Geelong

IN

Esava Ratugolea, Shaun Higgins, Tom Stewart, Joel Selwood

OUT

Quinton Narkle (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

James Sicily

SicDawg has continued to get the job done for us each week, with a lowest score of 79 to start the season. Tougher matchup against Geelong, but should be solid again for us.

Josh Ward

Very poor last week with a 27, but surely he can’t be that bad again? Named on the wing, so he should hold his spot, but his breakeven is 40 so if you could move him on to someone else this week as he might not make a heap more cash.

Mitch Duncan

Slowly getting back to his best, and 10 marks last week was impressive. He has failed to get 21 or more touches in any game, and with a breakeven of 116, you could wait a week or 2 before bringing him in, but he has a juicy matchup against the Hawks and could be massive.

Tom Stewart

Late out last week with gastro, but he looked back the week before with a 102 against Collingwood. He is cheap at 762k, and you know what you are getting with Stewart so you could do a lot worse in defence. An option to look at.

Tom Mitchell

Finally the Pig got his first ton of the year last week, and attended more CBA’s (attended 20 of a possible 36 CBA’s). You would want it closer to 70+% CBA’s before really looking at him, breakeven is still 129. He is starting to get super cheap, so keep an eye on him over the next couple of weeks, hopefully with both  a CBA and scoring increase.

Other players to watch: Sam De Koning, Connor Macdonald, Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie, 

 

My Trades

Rowell -> Dixon/Callaghan

Cripps -> Taranto

 

My intial plan of going Ward on my bench to Dixon and Cripps up to Taranto fell short by 3k, so I have decided to go Rowell down to Dixon and play Hayes on my field this week, should be good for a 60 against Gold Coast, and as I already have O’Driscoll, I believe that Dixon is the best rookie I don’t have to bring in, good score last week and job security should be good for a few weeks with Naitanui being out for a while, but Oscar Allen is only 2 weeks away, so I could bring in Finn Callaghan, which is early because he hasn’t played a game yet, but should have a wing role and could be in the team for a bit. Doing that allowed me to pick any player I want, so I have decided at the moment on Taranto over Jack Steele. I know for a fact Taranto will be a top 2-3 forward, and Toby Greene coming back in next week, should see his CBA numbers increase. Worst case he continues in the same role and still averages 110, but best case, with more midfield time, I think he can go 115 from here, maybe even push 120.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions about your starting teams, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for round 5!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang