Weekend Forecast – Round 4

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Round 4 is now upon us, and the talk all week has been about the rucks. With many of the top rucks not doing what we expected to start the season, and Juicy Preussy scoring a 108 on debut and being priced at 411k, coaches have made the move to bring him in. Some people may also have forced trades, with some premiums and rookies out this week.

 

We had another game last night, so lets quickly recap what happened:

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval

Max Gawn (140) – Big Maxy was back to his very best last night. He was everywhere, racking up 25 disposals, 12 marks, and 33 hitouts for a massive 140. Over 4000 coaches traded the big man this week.

Travis Boak (127) – Boak continued his impressive to start to the season, taking his average to 125.8 for the season. Great if you own him in draft or the 2.2% that have him in Classic.

Riley Bonner (125) – Got a heap of the ball last night with 37 disposals and have the most disposals on the ground. Great for draft owners, but too inconsistent to be an option for us in Classic.

Dan Houston (94) – Owners would be happy that he got to 94 in the end after Port weren’t great, but all of Port’s defenders did score well and take a lot of marks.

Christian Petracca (77) – The Drew tag meant Petracca didn’t score great, and the Ash/De Boer tag could be waiting for him also next week.

Zak Butters (77) – Did well to save his score in the end. with a 50 point 2nd half. Back to back scores under 80 now, but hopefully he gets more midfield time and can be better moving forward.

Angus Brayshaw (70) – Looked really good early, but didn’t continue it to only score 70. Many of the Melbourne players didn’t have high scoring games as Port had the ball more. Should get DEF status after round 5.

Clayton Oliver (68) – This score really shocked me. Wasn’t tagged by Drew and Melbourne dominated the game so I thought Oliver would have scored higher. I didn’t notice him much, which was showed by only having 19 disposals and 68 points. Every now and again he can have these games, and I am sure he will be better than this, but could have a tag with Ash and De Boer next week.

Jackson Mead (57) – Was solid enough last night with a 57 to keep his cash generation ticking over with a breakeven of only 5.

Jake Bowey (42) – Unfortunately for his 16.7% of coaches that own him, he didn’t deliver. Even though he had a 125 and 78 in his last 2, he showed he could have quiet games with a 38 in round 1. He was also the 5th most traded in player this week.

Ollie Wines (36) – Was subbed out at half time as he was sick and experiencing nausea throughout the game. Really sucks to start the round for the 5.6% of coaches that own him as his first 3 games of the season were great and he was a great premium POD.

Jed McEntee (36) – Didn’t notice him much last night and his scoring reflected that with a 36. His place in the team could potentially be in jeopardy next week.

Now, lets get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

Geelong vs Brisbane @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

Mark O’Connor

OUT

Joel Selwood (Managed), Shaun Higgins (Injured)

Brisbane

IN

Tom Fullarton

OUT

Harry Sharp (Omitted), Oscar McInerney (Suspension)

 

Players to Watch

Sam De Koning

Likely on most people’s. benches, but hopefully De Koning can score some points tonight. Breakeven of 20 when he has scored 20 (injury affected) and 32 doesn’t look great, but hopefully he can get a 50+ to keep his cash generation ticking over.

Tom Stewart

Scored a nice 102 last week against Collingwood last week. Tougher matchup with Brisbane this week (hopefully doesn’t play a lockdown role on Cameron). You know what you are getting with Stewart, and won’t get a whole lot cheaper so if you can’t afford one of the big dogs, then he is a safe option to look at.

Mitch Duncan

Duncan will likely drop under 800k this week, which is great for us non owners. Scored 90 last week, but upped his game time from 75% in round 2, up to 86% in round 3. Will be an upgrade target for us soon.

Dayne Zorko

Been playing the half back role we were told about so far this season, meaning he will likely pick up DEF status after round 5. If he does, will likely be a top 6 defender so keep an eye on his role again.

Lachie Neale

O’Connor is back in for Geelong this week, meaning a tag for Neale is pretty much a lock. When O’Connor tagged Lachie in round 2 last season, he only scored a 51. They played again in round 15 and Neale scored 106, so hopefully we see this sort of score but I wouldn’t be captaining or VCing Lachie this week.

Other players to watch: Daniel Rich, Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie, Jarryd Lyons, Noah Answerth

Sydney vs North Melbourne @ SCG

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, occasional light rain (67% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

Sam Reid, Peter Ladhams, Justin McInerney

OUT

Dylan Stephens (Omitted), Ben Ronke (Medi-Sub), Tom Hickey (Injured), Joel Amartey (Omitted)

North Melbourne

IN

Flynn Perez, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Atu Bosenavulagi

OUT

Eddie Ford (HS Protocols), Aiden Bonar (Omitted), Jared Polec (Injured), Tom Powell (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Jason Horne-Francis

Been attending quite a number of CBA’s over the past couple of games, but David Noble said during the week he like JHF up forward, so we could potentially see less CBA’s this week in a tough matchup against Sydney.

Paddy McCartin

Great matchup on paper could see McCartin get us a 50+ this week, but the weather may have other ideas. Light rain is expected, which could mean he doesn’t score great, so I would consider benching him this week if you have another option.

Luke Parker

Played the majority of the game in the midfield last week, which won’t do his chances of getting FWD status any favours. Hopefully he can play a bit more forward this week.

Nick Blakey

Priced at only 584k, the Lizard could be an option. Priced only 1k more than McInerney’s starting price, he has scored 81,81, and 106. Could solve people’s D6 struggles, as well as make some coin with a breakeven of 36.

Callum Mills

Only scored 78 last week, but I reckon he could be a good upgrade target in a few weeks. Slowly working his way back from the achilles injury/issue, he is now under 875k and with a breakeven of 133, he could drop further. Still potential to be a top 8-10 mid and average 110+ from here so give him a watch this week.

Other players to watch: Isaac Heeney, Aaron Hall, Tristan Xerri, Jy Simpkin, Jake Lloyd

 

Collingwood vs West Coast @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Callum Brown, Tom Wilson

OUT

Taylor Adams (HS Protocols), Jordan De Goey (Suspension), Tyler Brown (Medi-Sub)

West Coast

IN

Liam Duggan, Xavier O’Neill, Willie Rioli, Tom Barrass

OUT

Josh Rotham (Omitted), Jack Petruccelle (HS Protocols), Sam Petrevski-Seton (Injured), Andrew Gaff (Injured), Harry Edwards (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Nick Daicos

The round 3 rising star had another great game last week, with 26 touches and 89 points. Could play a bit more midfield time this week with Adams and De Goey out, but should still gain DEF status after round 5 which will help a lot of coaches in round 6 moving him to D6.

Patrick Naish

Has been really good so far for the limited coaches that have him, scoring 92 and 90 in his 2, and rising up to 441k. If you don’t have him, I wouldn’t bring him in now as I think he is too expensive. If you do own him, hopefully he can stay in the team for a few more weeks and make some more cash.

Brodie Grundy

With Preuss scoring a ton last week, a few people have jumped off the set and forget strategy, and traded one of their rucks, and Grundy has been traded out by over 3200 coaches. Scored 120 and 129 in his last 2 against West Coast so hopefully can score big for people sticking with the RuckPig.

Pat Lipinski

Since round 1 where he had 30 touches and 117, has only scored 69 and 84 points in his last 2 games while being down the pecking order for CBA’s. If you have held him, I would hold for at least this week. No Adams or De Goey and a great matchup against West Coast should mean he is in the guts plenty and should score well.

Reef McInnes

Had a solid debut last week for a score of 59 points. I think he is a solid downgrade option to bring in, so hopefully he can stay in the team for a few weeks and make some cash.

Other players to watch: Scott Pendlebury, Luke Foley, Alex Witherden, Jack Crisp, Hugh Dixon, Brady Hough

 

Richmond vs Western Bulldogs @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, clear

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

Jack Riewoldt, Ben Miller, Dion Prestia

OUT

Ivan Soldo (Omitted), Jack Ross (Omitted), Dylan Grimes (Injured), Jake Aarts (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Tim O’Brien, Bailey Williams, Louis Butler

OUT

Mitch Wallis (Medi-Sub), Roarke Smith (Omitted), Zaine Cordy (Injured), Alex Keath

 

Players to Watch

Jayden Short

Since that poor 68 in round 1, Short has been fantastic over the past 2 weeks, scoring 131 and 118 respectively to now average 105.7 over the 3 games. Now priced at 805k and a breakeven of 77, he is an good option to bring in defence, especially if you have downgraded one of your rucks and want to spend up.

Jack Macrae

A dirty -1 point last quarter ruined another ton last week, but not only that, he played on the wing for the last quarter. Has a great record against Richmond, averaging 116.9 in his 9 career games against them, and an even better record at the MCG, averaging 120.1 in his career 15 games at the venue. Hopefully he can bounce back in a big way this week, or could be on the chopping block.

Josh Dunkley

3 tons out of 3 games to start the season for Dunkley, and went big last week with a 132. A great VC option as he has a huge ceiling, and could be big again against Richmond.

Tim English

Speakano has been the standout ruck so far this season, and he is also available as a forward. 138 last week showed us he has a ceiling as good as Gawn and Grundy, and could be in the mix for a top 2 ruck spot, along with being in the mix for a top 6 forward spot. Good option to bring in this week.

Hugo Ralphsmith

Back to back scores of 60 and 67 has gotten his cash generation back on track after the 25 he scored in round 1 as the medi-sub. If you are happy to pay up, he isn’t a bad option to bring in as he will make some good cash over the next few weeks.

Other players to watch: Daniel Rioli, Bailey Smith, Adam Treloar, Marcus Bontempelli

 

Fremantle vs GWS @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, mostly sunny

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Sean Darcy, David Mundy

OUT

Darcy Tucker (Injured), Bailey Banfield (Omitted), Lloyd Meek (Omitted)

GWS

IN

Jake Riccardi

OUT

Nick Haynes (Injured), Adam Kennedy (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Nathan O’Driscoll

Scored a 60 last week, which is decent, but scored 0 points in the 2nd quarter so it could have been better for NOD. Good downgrade option to bring in defence and could play on field for some people this week.

Andrew Brayshaw

You can lock it in that Brayshaw will be tagged by Lachie Ash and Matt De Boer. Won’t score great this week, but will still be a top 8-10 mid I reckon, but I don’t think it will be pretty for his owners this week. I don’t normally advocate for trading premiums, especially this early in the season, but he is 972k and if you don’t have someone like Patrick Cripps, you could make over 160k just by doing that switch if you have nothing to do, I’m just saying.

Will Brodie

Finally, Will Brodie played more than 65% game time. With no Fyfe, Mundy or Serong, Brodie upped his game time all the way up to 83%. Hopefully he can keep it above 80% moving forward, or at least 75%.

Braydon Preuss

The man everyone is talking about. Juicy Preussy has been traded in by nearly 20,000 coaches this week, not to mention the 4362 coaches that brought him in last round. Many people are moving one of the big boys to him, and the move has a lot of merit, as it will make you a ton of cash. People are also bringing him on the bench which is also another good move.

Tom Green

This guy looks the real deal! Scores of 133, 102 and 114 to start the season has meant he has increased 143k in price up to 745k. His CBA’s last week also improved from under 50% to 66%, which is great. A very great option to bring in if you are in the market for a midfielder, and underpriced based on what he is doing and could do for the rest of the season.

Other players to watch: Tim Taranto, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, Jake Stein, Josh Kelly, Neil Erasmus

 

Essendon vs Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Alec Waterman, Will Snelling

OUT

 

Adelaide

IN

Rory Sloane, Jackson Hately, Josh Worrell, Taylor Walker

OUT

Darcy Fogarty (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Josh Rachele

Many coaches are trading him out this week after a low score of 42 last week, and a breakeven now at 27. Has 2 decent matchups in Essendon and Richmond in the next 2 rounds, and could score decent in those to make some more coin so you can hold him for another few weeks I think.

Nic Martin

Back in the team after missing round 2, and did well again with another 20 touches, 8 marks and 71 points. Safe to play on field, and with a -31 breakeven, he still has plenty of cash to make.

Jordan Dawson

What a man! King of Adelaide! Back to back tons now for Jordan Dawson, and looks comfortable playing on the wing and half back. Important thing to last week to note was he was tagged in the 3rd quarter by Drew, but moved back into defence later that quarter to escape the tag, and scored 39 points in the last quarter. My pick of the defenders under 800k and I think he can be a top 6 defender this season.

Rory Laird

First game back and played solidly for 31 disposals and 90 points. It was very impressive that he also did that in just 68% game time. I think he will be right in the mix for a top 8 mid spot, and with a breakeven of 135, will drop a little bit of cash and be an upgrade target in a few weeks time.

Jye Caldwell

Interestingly, with Merrett out of the team Caldwell should have gotten more CBA’s, but he actually got less, only attending 8 of a possible 28 CBA’s. I think part of that was due to McGrath tagging Petracca so I would expect Caldwell to get more CBA’s this week.

Other players to watch: Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Jake Stringer, Tex Wanganeen, Reilly O’Brien, Ben Keays, Matt Crouch

 

Hawthorn vs St Kilda @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 27°C, partly to mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

Jarman Impey, Emerson Jeka, Jacob Koschitzke, Tom Phillips

OUT

Chad Wingard (Injured)

St Kilda

IN

Ryan Byrnes, Tom Highmore, Marcus Windhager, Leo Connolly

OUT

Jack Higgins (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

James Sicily

Scored his first ton of the season last week with a 101, including 45 points in the last quarter. Breakeven of only 42 means he should make some good cash for us over the next few weeks and hopefully get up to 700k and hopefully more. Could even be a keeper for us this season. Good matchup against St Kilda and should be good again.

Will Day

First game back from injury last week and was solid with a 91. A few people have looked at bringing him in this week. He is cheap at 548k and a breakeven of 51, but I would want to see another week before really considering him.

Josh Ward

Solid again last week with a 63 and still making us a lot of cash. Big thing to note is his CBA numbers have improved each week. Last week he attended 19 of a possible 26 CBA’s, which was the most by any Hawks midfielder. With Hawthorn rebuilding and wanting to play the younger players, I think he will continue to get plenty of CBA’s and a good option to be playing on field.

Tom Mitchell

Hasn’t gotten as many CBA’s as we expected and hoped for, and his scoring has suffered with no tons and scores of 89, 98 and 87 to start the season. With a breakeven of 143, I would look to trade him this week. and hopefully he can get more CBA’s and be an option for us later in the season.

Jack Steele

Not normally does a player score 3 tons out of 3 games and get criticism for it, but when you pay over 1 million for a player and he isn’t scoring 110+, owners won’t be happy. I expect a 120+ this week against Hawthorn who give up truckloads of points, especially to midfielders.

Other players to watch: Jade Gresham, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Marcus Windhager, Connor Macdonald, Jack Sinclair, Jack Hayes

 

Gold Coast vs Carlton @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 26°C, sunny with some cloud cover

Team Lineups

Gold Coast

IN

Izak Rankine, Malcolm Rosas, Jy Farrar

OUT

 

Carlton

IN

Lachie Fogarty, Adam Saad, Paddy Dow, Jack Newnes

OUT

Cory Durdin (HS Protocols)

 

Players to Watch

Touk Miller

Disappointing last week with a 68 as he was double tagged by Ash and De Boer, and many coaches put the C on him. Has a great record against Carlton and they are his favorite team to play against, averaging 105.7 in his career 9 games against them. We haven’t seen Hewett tag for Carlton but he could this week so a small flag.

Patrick Cripps

Crippa has been insane to start the season, and went bigger last week with a 138. Now averaging 124.3, priced at 810k and a breakeven of 51, he is going to continue to shoot up in price and at this moment, looks to be a keeper and in the mix for a top 8 mid spot.

Sam Docherty

The Doc continues his great story, also going big last week with a 138, with 33 disposals and 13 marks. He is currently the no.1 scoring defender, averaging 113 and he should be great again with a great matchup against Gold Coast this week.

Matt Rowell

Scored 87 last week, really helped by 13 tackles. Breakeven of only 48, but I am not sure he is going to make as much money as we thought after round 1. Not taking any marks unfortunately lowers you ceiling so I am not against coaches moving him on early.

George Hewett

It was good to see Super Hewey tackle more last week with 9, and have a better split of kicks and handballs with 14 each in his 28 disposal game, and his scoring reflected that with a 119. Now up at 633k and a breakeven of 36, he will continue to make good cash for us and with defenders being poor this season, he might actually end up being a keeper for us this season based on his 98.3 average to start the season.

Other players to watch: Sam Walsh, Zac Williams, Jarrod Witts, Adam Cerra, Matt Kennedy, Malcolm Rosas

 

My Trades

Skinner -> O’Driscoll

Rowell/Rachele -> Preuss

 

I was so close to pulling the trigger and trading Max down to Preuss, which would have meant I could’ve gone Rowell/Rachele to either Docherty or Tom Green. However, I felt I wanted to keep the set and forget rucks. I locked in one trade last night, trading Sam Skinner out for Nathan O’Driscoll, and I will probably play him on field over McCartin this week. My second trade I am currently looking to bring in Preuss as my R3. In an ideal world, I would go Hayes to Preuss, but I am 17k short of doing that so the 2 options I would trade of for Preussy would be Rowell or Rachele. Rowell would be better for my field, but I currenlty have Horne-Francis on my bench who I could play on field, and have either Rachele or Macdonald on my bench as M9. This move means I have 173k in the bank so use as part of an upgrade next week. I could also move on Rachele a bit earlier than I would like, and I would have 30k in the bank. Rachele still has a low breakeven of 27, and if he has another 80+ score, he will continue to rise up in price so I am torn what to do there. I was tempted to go Macrae to Tom Green but like Max Gawn last night, Macrae could go big this week.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions about your starting teams, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for round 4!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang