Dream Team Stock Market – 2011 Review

Welcome to The Dream Team Hangover! The real DTs (delirium tremens) are starting to hit hard now that the fantasy season is over and there is still AFL Finals footy on the go. You are probably still poring over the stats, trawling through all the news and your trade finger is twitching but alas, Dream Team is gone.

Now that the dust has settled on a long and taxing year, let’s review the stock market for one final time before we close the book on season 2011. We’ll analyse the Top 10 investments and a few under-achievers and potential under-priced premiums as we head into the off-season.

Top 10 Stock Performers

Here are the top ten stock performers of 2011, based on the very simple ratio of price increase to starting price to determine return-on-investment and ranked accordingly.

Tendai Mzungu $333,800 ($97,600) UP$236,200 ROI+242%. The year’s most-anticipated rookie provided fantastic late-season cover for 33% of DT coaches, averaging 80ppg. While not Barlow-esque, the Gu’s output was certainly welcome across plenty of FWD lines with the plethora of outs in the past few weeks. Next year’s Nathan Fyfe?

Isaac Smith $302,200 ($92,500) UP$209,700 ROI+226%. In the same vein as Mzungu, Isaac Smith pumped out some massive numbers in the second half of the season and delivered 111 in the DT Grand Final, which would have contributed to many a victory last weekend.

Nick Lower $279,600 ($92,500) UP187,100 ROI+202%. With a points chart looking like a scattergram, Lower provided as many dips as he did peaks, but managed a decent average of 75 and played 19 games this year. He might not be a second-year contender, but he bows out of 2011 with the third-best ROI.

Danny Stanley $320,200 ($106,400) UP$213,800 ROI+200%. He proved himself to be a valuable keeper, with the only mark in Stanley’s end-of-season purple patch being a poor 57 in the DT GF. Playing every game for the Suns this year, his durability was second to none.

Paul Puopolo $275,500 ($92,500) UP$183,000 ROI+197%. Since debuting in R7 and playing every game since, Puopolo has been a steady bench/cover performer. Astute coaches hung on to the Poo for the Granny and it paid off with a handy 86 and a huge 129 the week prior – well played!

Allen Christensen $289,600 ($97,600) UP$192,000 ROI+196%. Another late-season bloomer, Christensen put up some awesome numbers for his coaches and his ROI reflects his output. Another to keep an eye on in the preseason as the Cats look to their young guns.

Matthew Wright $2247,700 ($92,500) UP$179,800 ROI+194%. Though not the most dependable scorer, Wright managed an average of 65 and the odd big number. As a somewhat unique rookie pick, he provided good cover, playing every game since R6.

Jack Darling $262,900 ($92,500) UP$170,400 ROI+184%. Big Darling bookended his season impressively, notching up 60-70s and 88 and 99 to finish off the year. A boon for coaches who hung on to him in the run home!

Shane Savage $274,400 ($97,600) UP$176,800 ROI+181%. Sneaky Savage played 17 games this year and carded big scores of 144, 164 and 128 in the mix. He certainly snuck under the radar and provided fairly steady cover for his coaches.

Luke Breust $255,300 ($92,500) UP$162,800 ROI+176%. Another sneaky rook, Bruest got a start in every Hawks game since R8 and had 90 and 114 in his last two. He would have been handy cover the likes of Buddy, Fyfe, Pavlich and Rioli in those last two rounds.

Under-Achieving Stocks

This list is made up of a select group of DT-relevant players who were among 2010’s high-performance stocks who tumbled this year. The circumstances surrounding the falls from grace for each of these guys are stories of their own, but there may be a few on this list who are likely to provide good value as starters in your 2012 squad, given a full preseason and a pocketful of confidence – your confidence, that is!

Nick Malceski $206,500 ($355,800) DOWN$149,300. From a big comeback in 2010 averaging 85 to an injury-riddled 2011 averaging 66, Eski has had a season to forget. He’s not quite in the fossil category yet and with a full preseason and no knee niggles, he may be a value pickup next season.

Sam Gilbert $251,800 ($387,100) DOWN$135,300. Whether or not Gilbert returns to DT premium greatness really depends on the role he plays next year. A mixed forward/defensive run this year killed his 2010 status as a DEF premo when he averaged 93 ppg, although his poor early season form and off-field shennanigans didn’t help either. He is one of the league’s best rebounding defenders, but will he be back in his favoured role in 2012?

Brad Green $251,100 ($409,000) DOWN$157,900. Green has been a solid FWD pick since 2006, averaging between 86 and 98 each year until this season. The Dees’ poor form can’t be blamed as those previous seasons prove his elite ability, so he’s one to pencil in the fossils list.

Paul Duffield $238,500 ($363,900) DOWN$125,400. Put simply, this has been a massively disappointing season for Duffield, who averaged 87 and 89 in 2010 and 2009, only to crash to a 70 ppg average in 2011. While we’ve come to expect a few random scores from him, he only returned two tons this season and looked lost for most of the time. He’ll need to put a huge preseason in to convince many coaches, so watch carefully…

Alan Didak $283,200 ($411,100) DOWN$127,900. It took almost the whole season for Dids to come up to full match fitness and to find his touch, but he finished off with 84, 92 and 109 in his last three games. Given a strong preseason, I’m backing him as one of 2012’s most popular FWD picks as he will be outstanding value.

Liam Anthony $263,400 ($355,600) DOWN$92,200. 2009’s uber-rookie followed up with a great start to 2010 before wrenching his shoulder. With a good preseason, 2011 looked to be a breakout year, but he struggled to make an impact. He’s a ball magnet and should be on your radar, but monitor his 2012 preseason closely.

Kane Cornes $267,300 ($418,300) DOWN$151,000. Has the game gone past Cornes the Younger? I’m not convinced. His strained relationship with coach Matty Primus was probably a major factor as until this year, Kane has not missed a single game since 2003!! His durability is unquestionable, but whether or not he returns to favour (and big DT scoring) at Alberton remains to be seen. Watch out for any developing news on Kornes over the off-season.

Brian Lake $276,800 ($414,300) DOWN137,500. Not getting his body sorted destroyed Lake’s season, playing just 5 poor games for the Doggies and struggling in the reserves. His average of 51 this year is an incredible drop from his 2010 average of 99. He may be fossilising, but it’s still worth keeping track of him in the off-season and preseason as the Dogs look to rebuild their backline.

Beau Waters $247,200 ($363,500) DOWN$116,300. Pesky, pesky, pesky elbows! If he gets a new pair of them in the off-season, Beau should bounce back in 2012 after a pretty poor showing this season. But seriously, he managed to average 87 in 2010 and if he comes back healthy, fit and firing, he should be on your watch list for next year.

Colin Sylvia $311,700 ($399,500) DOWN$87,800. Colon really went off the boil as the season drew to a close, shattering many coaches who picked him up after R12. We know he can hit the highs and he demonstrated un-Sylvia like consistency through to R12 this year. He has re-signed with the Dees and hopefully that rejuvenates him for next season. Let’s hope he pulls it all together and fulfils that potential in 2012 to cement himself as an elite DT FWD.

Bargain Blue Chips

These stocks are well worth keeping an eye on during preseason. While they haven’t had the best of it this year, they could prove to be bargain blue chips, or at least under-priced stock, in 2012.

Lenny Hayes $448,500. It was sad to see Lenny go down with an ACL injury, but the upside is that his determination and workrate are not likely to diminish during his rehab. He should be tastily discounted next year and, like Dids, will be one of the most-picked under-priced premos in 2012.

David Mundy $307,600. The Dockers rushed Mundy back for the last few games and paid the price, with their gun midfielder written off after his cameo appearance in R22. Until his injury in R12, he was averaging 105 and with his price crashing to the $307k mark this season, he shapes up to be an excellent under-priced unique next year.

Nick Riewoldt $325,100. NRoo’s average this year dipped under 94 for the first season since 2005. He recently rated his knee as a 7 out of 10, which is more realistically a 4 out of 10. Hopefully the knee gets cleaned up and he’s back to his barnstorming best next year, but his off-season and preseason will be telling. Oh, and no more candid camera tomfoolery on the end-of-season trip please Sammy…

Rhys Palmer $236,200. Palmer hasn’t shown much after averaging 87 in his debut year of 2008 and is now better know in DT circles as the man who cut Barlow’s stunning debut 2010 season short by breaking his leg. In the years after his rookie season he’s constantly been the subject of preseason discussions on breakout candidates, but injury and form have dogged him. A fresh start and weightier responsibility at GWS may be what he needs, which makes him a possible smokey unique in 2012.

Tom Scully $261,400. A troublesome knee has derailed Scully’s season and we know this kid is a gun-in-the-making. Look for him to get the body right and regardless of whether he’s a Demon or a Giant next season, at full fitness and with good preseason form, he could be an exciting breakout prospect.

In Review

Personally, I’m kinda happy to see the end of Dream Team 2011. The stop-start nature of the league season with the multi-bye rounds killed it a bit and I’m looking forward to loading up on whichever guns I want next year, without limiting myself to a maximum of two from each team! Like most of you, I’ve taken a valuable lesson or two from this year, the most important of which is to make sure I keep 8 trades (yes, eight!!) for DT Finals after holding 6 finals trades for two years running and being burnt in Grand Finals by teams resting their guns.

Ranting aside though, the 2012 season starts now. With GWS on the poach, tracking the off-season movements and progress of DT-relevant players has already started. Off-season and preseason chatter also provides valuable insight, so listen out for what the coaches have to say. Start drawing up the core of your starting squad now and follow the drafts closely. And of course, try to watch as many preseason games as you can so you can see how 2012’s rooks and 2011’s fallen stocks are shaping up.

It’s been a blast filling in for Aki for the past few weeks and hopefully the Stock Market analysis has been of some benefit to you. I appreciate you taking the time to peruse this information and thanks for all your feedback and criticism. Undoubtedly, the article will be back next year and Aki or myself look forward to bringing you the weekly dose of Stock Market movers, shakers, makers and breakers. Until then, have fun researching and planning – see you in preseason 2012!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT