Finals Flyers

The AFL finals are always a disappointment for fantasy coaches because the real season is over, but the upside is that we can get an insight into next season’s prospects without monster scores affecting their price.

We’re working with a small sample size because only GWS played all four games, which is barely anything to extrapolate from as it is.

But here are the five players who have the biggest differential between finals average and home and away season average, but played in at least two finals at an average of 80 points or more:

Jeremy Howe (DEF, $515,000)

2 Finals @ 110.5
19 H&A @ 69.4
Differential: +41.1

After his worst fantasy season since 2015, Jeremy Howe turned things around during the finals with 107 and 114 in the two games Collingwood played. He’s been a solid pick in defence for the last three years too, averaging 82.3, 90 and 82.3 again.

He’s understandably in just 1% of teams at the moment, but his performance in the finals means that it’s worth keeping an eye on him in the Marsh Series in case he keeps tonning up.

Brodie Grundy (RUC, $906,000)

2 Finals @ 147.0
22 H&A @ 122.1
Differential: +24.9

Pick the ruck pig.

Just do it.

Joel Selwood (MID, $585,000)

3 Finals @ 101.3
20 H&A @ 78.8
Differential: +22.5

A lot’s been written about Joel Selwood this pre-season, but in a nutshell he’s priced at the lowest average of his career after playing on the wing last season. That all changed in the finals though, when he was chucked back into the guts and pumped out 113, 116 and 75.

Injury concerns are a worry, but I wasn’t too hot on him anyway. Geelong rested Selwood by keeping him away from the action during the home and away season and still topped the ladder, so I don’t see why they’d be in a rush to change that up. And sure Tim Kelly’s left, but there’s a wealth of talent who’ll be competing for that extra midfield time.

Rupert Wills (MID, $458,000)

2 Finals @ 89.0
7 H&A @ 67.9
Differential: +21.1

Rupert Wills only managed seven games in the 2019 home and away season, so he receives a 9% discount to take his price down to a 61.2 average. That creates a 27.8 point differential with his 84 and 94 in the finals, which was boosted by a monstrous 25 tackles across the two games.

He’s awkwardly priced in classic so might be a better pick in draft, but I’ll be keeping an eye on his performance in the Marsh Series. He played in the guts from Round 20 onwards and was trusted there in the finals, so there might be big things in store this season. Especially when Collingwood will be missing Dayne Beams for an unknown chunk of 2020.

Tom Lynch (FWD, $463,000)

3 Finals @ 81.7
22 H&A @ 62.4
Differential: +19.3

Tom Lynch is already on the radar of many fantasy coaches enthused by his superb end to 2019. Robbed of a proper pre-season, he improved throughout the year with a 53.7 average before the bye and 74.9 after.

Key forwards are usually a big no-no in fantasy, with dual MID/FWD status the key to big, consistent scores. But the value’s there and the Richmond spearhead will only improve as he capitalises on better fitness and leads up the ground for that juicy +6 mark-and-kick combo.

Player	Team	Position	Average (H&A)	Games (H&A)	Average (Finals)	Games (Finals)	Difference
J Howe	Collingwood	Def	69.4	19	110.5	2	41.1
P Ambrose	Essendon	Def	41.8	20	79	1	37.2
T English	Western	Ruc	77.1	19	105	1	27.9
J Selwood	Geelong	Mid	75.1	21	101.3	3	26.2
A McGrath	Essendon	Def/Mid	74.7	22	100	1	25.3
L Hodge	Brisbane	Def	66.2	20	91.5	2	25.3
B Grundy	Collingwood	Ruc	122.1	22	147	2	24.9
A Francis	Essendon	Def/Fwd	53.9	16	78	1	24.1
R Wills	Collingwood	Mid	67.9	7	89	2	21.1
J Henry	Geelong	Def	43.9	20	63.7	3	19.8
T J. Lynch	Richmond	Fwd	62.4	22	81.7	3	19.3
D Moore	Collingwood	Def/Fwd	55.1	15	73.5	2	18.4
A Corr	GWS	Def	39.8	4	58	4	18.2
T Kelly	Geelong	Mid/Fwd	96.9	22	114.7	3	17.8
J Elliott	Collingwood	Fwd	67.6	14	85	2	17.4
J Cripps	West Coast	Fwd	64.1	17	80.5	2	16.4
S Sidebottom	Collingwood	Mid	98.5	21	114	2	15.5
N Naitanui	West Coast	Ruc	72.3	3	86.5	2	14.2
J Macrae	Western	Mid	115.6	22	129	1	13.4
L Jetta	West Coast	Def	61.2	20	74.5	2	13.3
D Heppell	Essendon	Mid	93.8	17	106	1	12.2
Z Tuohy	Geelong	Def	68.3	15	80.3	3	12
C Rayner	Brisbane	Fwd	45	22	56	2	11
S Edwards	Richmond	Mid/Fwd	74	21	84.7	3	10.7
T Phillips	Collingwood	Mid	90.5	22	101	2	10.5
B Maynard	Collingwood	Def	76.8	22	86.5	2	9.7
S Martin	Brisbane	Ruc	84.8	22	94.5	2	9.7
A Gaff	West Coast	Mid	111	20	120.5	2	9.5
J Thomas	Collingwood	Fwd	59.1	20	68.5	2	9.4
A Christensen	Brisbane	Fwd	64.2	11	73	2	8.8
O Fantasia	Essendon	Fwd	54.4	14	63	1	8.6
E Wood	Western	Def	46.7	22	55	1	8.3
W Rioli	West Coast	Fwd	63.8	13	72	1	8.2
H Perryman	GWS	Def	75.7	15	83.8	4	8.1
L Shuey	West Coast	Mid	101	22	109	2	8
D Grimes	Richmond	Def	55.7	21	63.3	3	7.6
S Pendlebury	Collingwood	Mid	103.6	22	111	2	7.4
D Prestia	Richmond	Mid	99.4	22	106.7	3	7.3
N Robertson	Brisbane	Def	56	4	63	1	7
S Taylor	GWS	Def	42.9	18	49.8	4	6.9
A Saad	Essendon	Def	67.3	21	74	1	6.7
E Ratugolea	Geelong	Fwd	50.1	17	56.7	3	6.6
N Haynes	GWS	Def	79.4	19	86	4	6.6
J J. Kennedy	West Coast	Fwd	54.2	20	60.5	2	6.3
J Riewoldt	Richmond	Fwd	58.5	10	64.3	3	5.8
J Berry	Brisbane	Mid	79.6	18	85	2	5.4
C Masten	West Coast	Mid	65.9	15	71	2	5.1
M O'Connor	Geelong	Def	59.2	20	64.3	3	5.1
L McCarthy	Brisbane	Fwd	59.9	22	64.5	2	4.6
C Guthrie	Geelong	Def/Mid	76.7	18	81	2	4.3
H Shaw	GWS	Def	82.5	22	86.5	4	4
J Caddy	Richmond	Fwd	70.5	15	74.3	3	3.8
J Kolodjashnij	Geelong	Def	48.3	20	52	3	3.7
J Waterman	West Coast	Fwd	61.4	11	65	2	3.6
M Robinson	Brisbane	Mid/Fwd	93.6	22	97	1	3.4
T Duryea	Western	Def	76.7	13	80	1	3.3
B Ham	Essendon	Fwd	49.8	4	53	1	3.2
T Atkins	Geelong	Mid/Fwd	53.2	20	56.3	3	3.1
D Gardiner	Brisbane	Def	57.7	22	60	2	2.3
J Castagna	Richmond	Fwd	68.9	21	70.7	3	1.8
J Stephenson	Collingwood	Fwd	80.7	12	82.5	2	1.8
D Astbury	Richmond	Def	56.1	19	57.7	3	1.6
D Parish	Essendon	Mid/Fwd	79.4	20	81	1	1.6
A McDonald-Tipungwuti	Essendon	Fwd	62.9	22	64	1	1.1
B Daniels	GWS	Fwd	60.6	22	61.5	4	0.9
N Vlastuin	Richmond	Def	78.9	21	79.7	3	0.8
W Schofield	West Coast	Def	36.3	12	37	2	0.7
D Zorko	Brisbane	Mid	104.2	22	104.5	2	0.3
H McCluggage	Brisbane	Mid	91.4	21	91.5	2	0.1
M Hurley	Essendon	Def	77.4	18	77	1	-0.4
J Crisp	Collingwood	Def	97.7	22	97	2	-0.7
M Suckling	Western	Def/Fwd	84.7	18	84	1	-0.7
J Darling	West Coast	Fwd	71.3	22	70.5	2	-0.8
M Redman	Essendon	Def	68.9	19	68	1	-0.9
S Hurn	West Coast	Def	91.4	19	90.5	2	-0.9
D McStay	Brisbane	Fwd	51.6	22	50.5	2	-1.1
J Petruccelle	West Coast	Fwd	51.1	19	50	1	-1.1
B Parfitt	Geelong	Fwd	72.2	17	71	3	-1.2
L Ryan	West Coast	Fwd	56.9	22	55.5	2	-1.4
G Miers	Geelong	Fwd	66.7	22	65.3	3	-1.4
Z Williams	GWS	Def	92.7	20	91.3	4	-1.4
J Lyons	Brisbane	Mid	97.5	22	96	2	-1.5
J Redden	West Coast	Mid	91.8	21	90	2	-1.8
J Noble	Collingwood	Mid	68.3	3	66	2	-2.3
C McKenna	Essendon	Def	70.3	21	67	1	-3.3
J Cameron	GWS	Fwd	87.5	20	83.5	4	-4
O McInerney	Brisbane	Fwd/Ruc	56.2	19	51.5	2	-4.7
S Menegola	Geelong	Mid/Fwd	77.6	9	72.7	3	-4.9
T Cotchin	Richmond	Mid	70.7	11	65.7	3	-5
A Kennedy	GWS	Def	65.3	19	60	4	-5.3
J Nelson	West Coast	Def	48.3	11	43	2	-5.3
E Hipwood	Brisbane	Fwd	57.1	21	51	2	-6.1
I Soldo	Richmond	Ruc	72.5	11	66.3	3	-6.2
D Shiel	Essendon	Mid	98.3	21	92	1	-6.3
J McGovern	West Coast	Def	68.8	21	62.5	2	-6.3
B Houli	Richmond	Def	103.2	19	96.7	3	-6.5
R Stanley	Geelong	Ruc	81.3	16	74.5	2	-6.8
K Lambert	Richmond	Fwd	86.6	18	79.7	3	-6.9
J Hopper	GWS	Mid	93.6	19	86.5	4	-7.1
T Adams	Collingwood	Mid	95.1	10	88	2	-7.1
J Short	Richmond	Def	70.4	12	63	3	-7.4
T Greene	GWS	Fwd	98.4	16	91	3	-7.4
T Bellchambers	Essendon	Ruc	71.6	15	64	1	-7.6
J Bews	Geelong	Def	50.4	9	42.7	3	-7.7
T Hawkins	Geelong	Fwd	70.9	22	63	2	-7.9
T Taranto	GWS	Mid	112.5	22	104.5	4	-8
D Lloyd	GWS	Fwd	56.9	14	48.8	4	-8.1
H Taylor	Geelong	Def	57.4	21	49.3	3	-8.1
D Rioli	Richmond	Fwd	56.2	19	47.7	3	-8.5
Z Cordy	Western	Def	40.5	22	32	1	-8.5
B Smith	Western	Mid/Fwd	69.2	22	60	1	-9.2
P Lipinski	Western	Mid/Fwd	85.5	13	76	1	-9.5
S Mumford	GWS	Ruc	65.7	16	55.5	4	-10.2
H Crozier	Western	Def	71.6	21	61	1	-10.6
D Martin	Richmond	Mid/Fwd	97.1	20	85.7	3	-11.4
M Blicavs	Geelong	Def	68	22	56.3	3	-11.7
Z Bailey	Brisbane	Mid/Fwd	48.2	13	36.5	2	-11.7
L Young	Western	Def	52.3	4	40	1	-12.3
E Richards	Western	Def	50.9	19	38	1	-12.9
B Sheppard	West Coast	Def	82.4	22	69.5	2	-12.9
D Rich	Brisbane	Def	88	22	75	2	-13
I Hill	GWS	Mid/Fwd	50.3	7	37	1	-13.3
P Dangerfield	Geelong	Mid/Fwd	107.5	21	94	3	-13.5
L Keeffe	GWS	Def	43.8	9	30	1	-13.8
J Schache	Western	Fwd	55	13	41	1	-14
L Henderson	Geelong	Def	56	5	42	1	-14
L Neale	Brisbane	Mid	104.7	22	90.5	2	-14.2
M Adams	Brisbane	Def	49.4	8	35	2	-14.4
E Yeo	West Coast	Mid	102.7	21	88	2	-14.7
T Stewart	Geelong	Def	95	22	80.3	3	-14.7
M de Boer	GWS	Fwd	69.9	15	55	4	-14.9
H Himmelberg	GWS	Fwd	60.5	21	45.3	4	-15.2
C Mayne	Collingwood	Mid	77.8	19	62.5	2	-15.3
J Stringer	Essendon	Fwd	65.3	18	50	1	-15.3
T Barrass	West Coast	Def	56.3	12	40.5	2	-15.8
A Witherden	Brisbane	Def	74.8	21	58.5	2	-16.3
M Hutchings	West Coast	Mid	51	16	34	2	-17
Z Merrett	Essendon	Mid	108.2	22	91	1	-17.2
A Treloar	Collingwood	Mid	113.5	22	96	2	-17.5
J Laverde	Essendon	Fwd	58.6	9	41	1	-17.6
L Baker	Richmond	Fwd	68.7	16	51	3	-17.7
J Finlayson	GWS	Def/Fwd	70.8	19	53	4	-17.8
C Cameron	Brisbane	Fwd	67.3	22	49	2	-18.3
L Hunter	Western	Mid	98.6	22	80	1	-18.6
N Answerth	Brisbane	Def/Mid	56.1	17	37.5	2	-18.6
S Bolton	Richmond	Fwd	63.7	16	45	3	-18.7
J Aish	Collingwood	Def/Mid	66.9	13	48	1	-18.9
T Hickey	West Coast	Ruc	69.3	18	50	2	-19.3
C Brown	Collingwood	Fwd	65.2	20	45.5	2	-19.7
W Snelling	Essendon	Mid	71.7	3	52	1	-19.7
A Tomlinson	GWS	Mid	77.3	22	56.7	3	-20.6
T Nankervis	Richmond	Ruc	78.4	9	57.7	3	-20.7
A Naughton	Western	Def/Fwd	64	22	43	1	-21
G Ablett	Geelong	Mid/Fwd	88.7	21	67.7	3	-21
J Roughead	Collingwood	Ruc/Fwd	55.5	22	34.5	2	-21
L Dahlhaus	Geelong	Mid/Fwd	77.4	21	55.7	3	-21.7
T McLean	Western	Mid/Fwd	68.2	18	46	1	-22.2
B Deledio	GWS	Mid/Fwd	73.6	13	51	1	-22.6
K Langford	Essendon	Mid/Fwd	70.6	17	48	1	-22.6
H Andrews	Brisbane	Def	56.3	19	33.5	2	-22.8
W Hoskin-Elliott	Collingwood	Fwd	75.4	17	52.5	2	-22.9
J Johannisen	Western	Def	82.1	19	59	1	-23.1
S J. Reid	GWS	Def/Fwd	64.8	22	41.3	4	-23.5
P Davis	GWS	Def	67.6	19	44	4	-23.6
D Sheed	West Coast	Mid	95	22	71	2	-24
N Broad	Richmond	Def	50.1	21	25.3	3	-24.8
J Dunkley	Western	Mid/Fwd	111.1	22	86	1	-25.1
G Rohan	Geelong	Fwd	49.2	18	24	1	-25.2
J Kelly	GWS	Mid	115.9	14	90.3	4	-25.6
R West	Western	Mid	53.5	2	26	1	-27.5
B Mihocek	Collingwood	Fwd	72.8	22	43.5	2	-29.3
B Reid	Collingwood	Fwd	54.7	7	25	1	-29.7
J Graham	Richmond	Mid	82.9	14	51.5	2	-31.4
Q Narkle	Geelong	Fwd	84.7	3	53	3	-31.7
S Lloyd	Western	Mid/Fwd	77.8	22	45	1	-32.8
B Ellis	Richmond	Def	84.8	20	51.7	3	-33.1
M Bontempelli	Western	Mid	104.7	22	71	1	-33.7
L Whitfield	GWS	Def/Mid	113.8	16	74.7	3	-39.1
B Dale	Western	Mid/Fwd	69.4	9	30	1	-39.4
W Hayes	Western	Mid	69.4	8	30	1	-39.4
L Greenwood	Collingwood	Def	63.5	16	22	1	-41.5
S McKernan	Essendon	Fwd	68	15	26	1	-42
M Brown	Essendon	Fwd	68.4	15	18	1	-50.4
M Duncan	Geelong	Mid	105.6	22	51	1	-54.6
C Hooker	Essendon	Def	74.5	17	10	1	-64.5
J De Goey	Collingwood	Fwd	84.3	16	11	1	-73.3