Dream Team Stock Market – R20

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Wow, last weekend was one of the biggest I’ve seen for Dream Team scores, with some hefty numbers popping up around the traps. Congrats to the coaches out there who maxed out over 2600 – brilliant! The best bit is that the last few weeks have made those miserable 1900-par rounds magically disappear from memory, until I reminded everyone just then…

Good footy to be had too. West Coast consigned the Doggies to a tough loss in a tight finish, with Razor Ray typically and inexplicably asserting his presence at crucial points to affect the game. Our few Melbourne ‘premiums’ had an atrocious day out, with none cracking the ton. With the Bickley-coached Crows getting over Port, should we expect to see Viney’s Dees upset Carlton this weekend?

Homework is the key at this point. Check out your league’s likely finals draw and look at how it might pan out. You’ll soon work out how you’re going to go, whether you’ll go through to the Prelims, whether you may have to take the double chance, etc. This will help you map out your finals campaign and help you plan how to best utilise your remaining trades.

With numerous players topping 120+ scores, we had a full bear market this week. A few sliders not only arrested their forecast price falls, but managed to turn their value movement positive, eg Jelwood and Priddis. With such growth across most stocks, the Bargains list is sadly very thin this week. Alrighty then, let’s crunch some numbers!

Sell, Sell, Sell

All of these rooks have been good cash cows for us this season. They have peaked and are forecast to stabilise in value for the rest of the year. The stark reality in our fantasy football world is that they aren’t premiums who will return consistent 90+ scores for us, making them fair game for a cash-in downgrade or a trade-plus-cash upgrade, as long as you aren’t relying on these guys exclusively for cover.

Nick Lower $309,100 UP$7,000 (UP$216,600) BE110. Yes, Lower does run through the middle and yes, he has racked up a few big numbers, but apart from that huge 130, his recent scoring range is 60-70. His value chart shows a couple of moderate bell curves and forecast to plateau at the $300k mark after a projected drop of $5,100 next week.

• Stock tip: Sell any time now and gain a massive $210k+.

Trent McKenzie $301,600 DOWN$11,900 (UP$204,000) BE102. The Cannon has produced a last five of 64, 72, 81, 93, 122. While this is a very good scoring range, Trent’s output has been declining steadily, which is reflected in his value. With a BE of 102 this week, he is projected to drop $7,500 next week, following a drop of $11,900 this week. His forecast value is set to steady at just under $300k.

• Stock tip: Plump for offloading this week for a delicious $204k gain.

Matthew Wright $237,500 UP$3,200 (UP$145,000) BE76. Wright has shown glimpses of good DT scoring, making him a handy pickup for those coaches who have him, with recent scores of 62, 50, 86, 22 and 99. If you are looking at cashing in, his long-term forecast value will stay at around the $230k mark.

• Stock tip: Bank a substantial $145,000 if you sell this week.

Tom Liberatore $227,800 DOWN$5,700 (UP$135,300) BE71. We expected much from lil’ Libba after a very strong start to the season, but he disappeared for a while to return with 44 and 66. To be fair, he was recalled for tough games against Sydney and West Coast. A look at his forecast shows his value should stay at around $220k+ for the rest of the season.

• Stock tip: Cash him in this week and gain a respectable $135,300.

Dion Prestia $250,400 UP$13,700 (UP$121,900) BE59. Prestia’s last five have actually been pretty decent: 72, 67, 92, 74 and 49. His slightly increased output and relative consistency have seen his value peaking in time for a finals trading flurry. His value is forecast to taper off to $230k by R24, so he is peaking.

• Stock tip: A handy $121k earner if sold off this week.

On The Up

Andrew Gaff $232,700 UP$43,300 (UP$84,200) BE7. Gaffy popped another ton last weekend against the Doggies in his best game so far this season. That big effort has his value skyrocketing yet again, with a projected rise of $18,000 next week and a forecast top-out at $260k after R21. Considering the opportunities Worsfold is giving him at the moment, he may provide excellent cover for the fortunate 5% of coaches who have hung on to him.

• Stock tip: Sell after R21 and put away a tidy $110k.

Keiran Harper $191,500 UP$19,400 (UP$99,000) BE20. The slow-burning Harper still has a bit of earning left in him with a 77 in his rolling average. He has produced a decent scoring range in the 50s and 60s in his last four. His price is forecast to peak after R20 at just over $200k with a projected increase of $10,100 next week, making him an almost-ready-to-trade commodity.

• Stock tip: A neat gain of around $110k if sold next week.

Hayden Jolly $183,800 UP$18,600 (UP$86,200) BE41. After only five games, Jolly has shot up to $183,300 and is forecast to top out at $210k+ in R24. His graph shows a steady increase and if the kid gets a few more games, he’ll soon be ready to flip for a tidy profit.

• Stock tip: Sell after R21 for $200k and gain a quick-fire $100k+.

On The Slide

Matt Suckling $343,400 DOWN$25,100 (UP$130,800) BE132. Playing in the downpour and slush out west last weekend clearly did not suit Suckling (or Birchall), and a last three of 63, 76 and 83 has his value dropping off with a projected fall of $12,600 next week. We know what a high ceiling he has and the Hawks have a decent run over the next few rounds. This makes Suckers a prime upgrade target for the first weekend of finals!

• Stock tip: Buy after R20 for around $330k.

Stefan Martin $355,700 DOWN$7,500 (UP$210,400) BE124. Don’t be too worried about Martin’s 56 against a rampant Geelong; his five previous to that were 101, 113, 92, 99 and 114. His value is projected to drop by $10,100 next week and, interestingly, is forecast to bottom out at $320k by R24. Like the Hawks, the Dees have a reasonable DT finals run – West Coast, Richmond, Gold Coast and Port. He’s a unique option who has proven to be pretty reliable with his scoring.

• Stock tip: Bring him in next week for $345k-ish.

Blue Chip Bargains

Grant Birchall $334,900 DOWN$12,600 (UP$13,600) BE106. He was on the Sliders list last week and he looks to have bottomed out, making Birch a very good ‘in’ if you need to pull a DEF upgrade this week. With an average of 90, he is not likely to let you down. Pair him up with Suckling in your back line and you have two Hawks defenders who will play kick-to-kick all day long…

• Stock tip: Get on now or next week for around his current $335k.

Jed Adcock $263,800 (UP$1,300) BE33. Jed looks like he’s getting his touch back after a 96 and 79 in his last two outings and spending some time in the middle in his last game. If you trust him to maintain or better his current average of 83 for the rest of the season, his value is down to just about his starting price and his low BE of 33 has his projected increase estimated at $13,100 next week.

• Stock tip: Buy this week before his value shoots up next week.

In Review

Last call folks, here we are at our last league game! If you’re looking at trading this week, it should only be to set your team up for your finals run or if you’ve copped an LTI. If you’ve been desperately hanging on to your trades for the finals, hopefully your dogged determination will pay off over the next few weeks. If you’ve been trigger-happy and are starting to run out of trades, then I fear that you may be in for a bit of pain!

Have a good read and re-read of Roy’s Trade Talk and the associated chatter and run the numbers over some of the names in this analysis to line up your ins and outs. You should be in the midst of your plan of attack for the finals, so stick to your guns. Make sure that every single trade counts to your team’s success and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT