The Friday Scramble: Round 19

Can you believe it, we are at the last round before the Fantasy Finals already, hopefully you are locked away in the top four of your league and preparing your side for that last day in August! (Doesn’t have that same ring to it does it?). All we need is a bit of luck this week no late outs. How many of you got caught out by Hurn last week? I certainly did, thankfully I had some cover. Also hope you didn’t do something stupid that I did too this week…. more on that a bit later on.  Anyway, one more week so Let’s Scramble!!

Finals

For those new to Fantasy games, I hope you have had a great year. In standard default leagues this will be our last game before the finals start and unless you are amongst the top dozen or so coaches you aren’t going to win the overall prize but the key will be to make sure that you at least get some glory by winning your league.

As I mentioned above you want to make sure your team makes the finals at all costs because whilst there is the consolation finals (often referred to by the Traders as the Tit-ed cup after one of their mates) there is no bragging rights in that. If you are either hanging on by a thread or banging down the door in your most important league then you need to do a couple of things.

• If you are looking like losing then you will want to look for alternatives and points of difference between you and your opponent. This would mean potentially trading out a player you have in common that you think won’t hurt you as they won’t go big and bringing in someone that has a juicy matchup this week and could bring a huge score to your side.
• If you are looking like you should get the win but are worried about one of their unique players then you may want to trade out one of your dodgier unique guys and bring in the same player they have to get rid of the risk they pose to you.

All this sounds good in theory but it can be difficult, particularly in RDT and SC where we have limited trades.  We know that there are going to be some restings and injuries in the last four weeks but as the old saying goes “you have to be in it to win it” so if you aren’t in the finals at all those trades are going to be next to useless for you so you may as well use them.

#AskDunny

Can we wait a week on Whitfield Dunny or strike now?

— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) July 24, 2019

Great question Tim, now I happen to know that Supercoach is your preferred game of choice but I will address the other forms too. In SC he has a Break Even of 93, in RDT it is 108 and in AF it is 136. Now in both SC and RDT we know that he has now had that poor game when he got injured against the Suns out of his price cycle which has caused his BE to reduce. In both of those formats I fully expect him to comfortably cover that BE against the Power. So in both of those games I don’t think he is going to get any cheaper than what he is right now, so pick him up this week or pay more next week.
In AF I must say I am no expert on their formula but his BE of 136 is probably a little more unattainable and based on that I think that in that format you can certainly afford to wait a week to get him.

The bigger question here is who are you trading out to get him (and this applies to all forms). If you are getting a rookie or guy scoring in the 60s and 70s off field for him then it doesn’t matter what his price is, you get him right now as you are giving away 35-50 points to those teams that do have him.  If you are trading out someone that is a struggling premium that is good for 85-105 each week then you still grab him in RDT and SC but in AF you could probably wait one more week but at that stage there is only 4 games to go.

A long answer I know but I hope I have covered everything off for you here.

Why do I never get to play finals in my keeper league when everyone else does ? Seems unfair. I blame @FantasyAFLGods

— MillarTime (@time_millar) July 25, 2019

MillarTime, I have to say I agree with you 100% here.  I have one keeper draft league where I reckon I have a good squad but the results tell me otherwise. I don’t know what to tell you here mate but I also blame the Fantasy Gods. All you can do is (if the trade window is still open in your league) try and trade for some better talent or mine the waivers for someone that you think might break out next year and just hope for the best!

Who’s more important a premium M8 or D6

— aussiebatter (@specky_mcgee) July 25, 2019

Hi Aussie, or is it Specky? Who knows but I do like your question. This is one that is often asked and it is usually in the context of do I side swap at D6 before upgrading at M8 or vice versa. For me this is where it is all about the numbers. It is about what is the potential scoring of the two players you end up with vs the potential score of the two players you don’t have. Whilst this is the major factor the other key factor will be how much cash you have available to make the trade.

Let’s say you have a rookie in each position with a massive WarneChest to play with and you can bring anyone you want in. Do you bring in a defender premium who is likely to score around the 100-110 mark and keep your rookie M8 who will probably get you a 75-80 or do you keep your rookie D6 who will probably get you 60ish and bring in a premium M8 who could score you a 125+. For me this is an easy decision and that is to get the midfielder and sure up your M8 every time. This is going to be the answer in 95% of cases.

The other side of the coin is if you have no cash then it becomes who can you afford and in that circumstance you may need to go with the D6 upgrade as they are likely to be cheaper than the midfield upgrade that you want to do.

So if I had to sum it up (geez I am overcomplicating things today), I would say that the answer is that the M8 is more important as the guys you get in there are going to have a higher ceiling normally than the guys that you could bring in at D6 because let’s face it you probably already have all the big scoring defenders in your team. The only exception I am going to make here this week is that if you don’t have Lachie Whitfield then I would get him in at D6 as your priority as he is effectively a midfielder and will score like one and then you can fix up M8 next week.

Selection Table

With just a few weeks to go we are going to start seeing some of the clubs that can’t make finals start to either check out some kids or send players off for surgery so be prepared for carnage most weeks!

I know there were a lot of teams that brought Birchall in last week and got burnt when he was a late out. Given he hasn’t played for ages he is going to be a risk each week. Even though he is named this week he may not play all 5 games remaining.
Kreuzer is being managed. He has always had issues staying out on the park and this is not a great sign at this time of the year. Take the opportunity and trade to one of the big dogs. If you don’t have our newly snouted Ruck Pig then you should just do the right thing and bring him in.
Shannon Hurn’s old man calf injury hasn’t come up this week but I suggest holding in limited trade forms of the game as I suspect he will be back next week. I’ve done a few old man calf injuries and if it is like they are saying I reckon he will be ok.
Preuss has been omitted now that Maxy is back to full strength and this is a good thing for us as we need Max up and about for the finals.
Paddy Ryder comes in for Charlie Dixon. Not classic relevant but a few coaches in Draft will be happy. But what it does to Lycett’s numbers is the bigger question. His great scores were when Ryder wasn’t in the side.
Hately is back!!! And Named on field and it isn’t a Sunday extended bench game!  Back in his home state he will be looking to impress and if you need him as cover this week it could be your lucky week!
Fyfe returns from his elbow issue to the extended squad. Just have cover in case.
Heppell back out again doesn’t hurt too many teams but he will hurt in draft comps. Many thought he was playing injured last week and against the Suns it is probably the right time to rest him.

Supercoach and RDT Relevant player
Jordan Sweet is on the extended bench for the Dogs. Many players in those games have him on the bench as a captain loophole donut.  Just be aware that he MAY get a game so be careful if you plan to use him like that.

Things to Remember

• Remember to Trade! I joined the Calvin Club but in RDT and SC. I was so worried about getting my Captain loophole timing right between Cripps and Grundy as the games overlapped I forgot to trade out Cogs before the Giants game started. I had cover thankfully but it cost me about 50 or so points in each comp. So in those games don’t get too far ahead of yourself and keep your head in the game. It can be great having til the last minute to trade but it can bite you too!
• Go hard or you’ll be going home. Remember you can’t win a premiership from outside the 8!
• Trust the new Pig in the pen. We often don’t like a Friday night captain but Grundy is just too hard to look past for me this week!

I know there is a huge temptation to turn off at this time of year but hang in there, you haven’t done all that preseason work and then the 18 weeks we have had so far just to give it all away in the last 5 weeks. Even if you are struggling in your league, don’t become a ghost ship, it sucks for other teams still battling hard and you want to have something you can build on going into next season. Have a great weekend and I hope to see all of you in the finals next week!

Cheers
Dunny