Dream Team Stock Market – R17

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

So… How did you go? In last week’s preamble, I was singing the praises of one Gary Ablett Jr. This week I offer my commiserations to all who skippered him on the weekend (including me!). Not to worry, the gun-and-a-half has been spotted training normally this week and he has twotted himself as ‘good to go’ this weekend.

It was one of those weeks where DT scores were either fantastic (2100+) or poor (sub-1900). Generally, coaches with Swan as captain racked up excellent scores and moved up the leaderboard – top stuff! West Coast are stamping their authority on the competition and are showing signs of a genuine Top 4 side. With a good run in the remaining home-and-away games, Eagles guns might be worth a look if you’re after a unique or two in DT finals.

The Dream Team Stock Market was fairly stable, so I doubt there will be any names in the analysis that will surprise. It has to be said that as we start the run to our fantasy finals, trades are absolutely critical, with your decisions bearing heavily on your team’s future success or failure. The only advice I have is: trade wisely!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Allen Christensen – $219,700 UP$28,500 (UP$122,100) BE43. Christensen has racked up a couple of handy scores lately, including a 73 and 109, which has pushed his value up over the past three rounds from $163,900 to $219,700. His current price won’t last, as his pattern of scoring has tended to be in the 20-50 range, so look to offload him soon and cash in on his sharp rise.

• Stock tip: Sell between now and R18 and bank a very healthy $120k+.

Jack Darling – $209,700 DOWN$4,700 (UP$117,200) BE51. After peaking at $273,400, jumpin’ Jack’s scoring has really dropped off recently, putting in 48, 66 and 44 in his last three games. His slide has been a slight disappointment after his name was thrown around as a possible F7 keeper earlier in the season. His value is forecast to float up to maybe $225k by the end of the season, which is too little, too late for some.

• Stock tip: Projected to rise $4,200 next week; sell now and gain $117,200.

Michael Hibberd – $237,500 DOWN$4,400 (UP$145,000) BE56. Doc Hibberd has been an excellent short-term earner and looks set to top out at around $250k. If you need liquidity, he’s one stock you can sell off anytime now, but with an average of 70 and DEF/MID DPP, he’ll probably be bench cover for the rest of the season for his coaches.

• Stock tip: Sell this week and make an excellent $145,000.

Nathan Vardy – $168,700 DOWN$11,300 (UP$71,100) BE70. Much was expected of big Vardy after scores of 70 and 77 in his second and third games, but his next four have been 58, 49, 32 and 30. It’s not really surprising considering that those last two thirty-somethings were in losses, but they’ve hurt his value. He’s projected to drop $7,300 this weekend and may start to recover after R18 and creep slowly up to $170k+ by R21.

• Stock tip: Pocket $71,100 if you sell him now.

Cam Pedersen – $236,100 UP$2,000 (UP$137,700) BE73. He’s the Kangas Cam that most of us wished we had instead of Cam Richardson! He has been an excellent mid-season find for the Roos, playing up forward for some good DT scores and covering in defence and pinch-hitting in the ruck when required. He is forecast to top out at a tick over $250k after R19 and he’s worth consideration as a ‘sell’ as H-Mac continues his comeback to the seniors.

• Stock tip: Cash in now for a solid $137,700 gain.

Nick Duigan – $269,300 UP$3,100 (DOWN$176,800) BE79. As one of this season’s most popular rookie defenders, Duigan’s value has plateaued. His scoring has been varied, with a last five of 65, 67, 91, 78 and 43. A pretty awesome earner though, so if he’s played his mooing role for you and you’ve got the need for cashola, he’s ripe for the selling.

• Stock tip: Gets you a pocket-burning $176,800 if sold now.

On The Up

Hayden Jolly – $137,200 UP$39,600 (UP$39,600) BE-43. There’s nothing like a steady increase in point scoring to get a rook’s value rocketing, and Jolly’s three of 87, 67 and 45 have his projected increase at $36,600 after his next game, topping out at $230k in R24.

• Stock tip: For a quick flip, sell after R18 for over $200k and make $100k+.

Joel Wilkinson – $133,500 UP$35,900 (UP$35,900) BE-40. Another great short-term prospect is Wilkinson, whose scoring and value has followed the same pattern as team mate Hayden Jolly, carding 93, 52 and 40 in his three games with a gain in his next start projected at $34,700.

• Stock tip: Also a quick flip to make you $100k+ if sold after R18.

Luke Parker – $140,300 UP$36,200 (UP$47,800) BE-31. Parker’s scoring has been pretty average, but a whopping 107 in his last game helps to put his value on an upward trend. Unless he manages to throw in 60-80 range scores, he’s not shaping up as a keeper and could make his coaches some quick cash.

• Stock tip: Sell after R18 for around $185k and gain $85k+.

Bradley Helbig – $161,900 UP$14,800 (UP$69,400) BE24. With one of the catchier names amongst the rookies this season, Helbig hasn’t exactly lit it up in Dream Team. He’s had highs of 67 and 61, but 30-50 looks to be his usual spread. Granted, he hasn’t had a steady run of games, so hopefully he gets a couple more starts to peak in value.

• Stock tip: Projected to top out for $175k-ish after two more games to make $80k+.

Patrick Karnezis – $150,000 UP$27,500 (UP$57,500) BE-8. Possibly the Lions’ most consistent rookie in his short AFL career, Pat Karnezis has shown a bit of potential with 62, 64, 54 and 45 in his first four games. He certainly puts in a bit of effort out there and looks to be a good foil for JB up forward. His price is forecast to peak after R23 at $200k.

• Stock tip: Sell after R20 for $185 for an $85k gain.

Luke Dahlhaus – $182,000 UP$18,300 (UP$93,600) BE25. Dahlhaus has been a real firecracker in the Dogs’ forward pack and is just what they needed to inject some much needed energy after a lacklustre start to the season. He’s got some happy coaches out there too, rising sharply in value and forecast to top out at over $200k.

• Stock tip: Makes you $110k+ if sold after R19.

Harley Bennell – $215,600 UP$8,300 (UP$59,100) BE29. After going AWOL, Harley’s come back pretty well with a 79 to get his forecast value peaking at around $245k in R20. If he keeps working hard and getting games, he’ll get his coaches a decent return on what was a premium-priced investment.

• Stock tip: Tops out in R19-20 at $240k.

On The Slide

Gary Ablett Jr – $462,200 DOWN$25,500 (DOWN$32,200) BE165. The forecast is for GAJ’s value to drop to about $415k after R18, which is pretty good value considering his pre-23 scores of 175, 118, 135, 146 and 132! If you want to finish your mids off with a bang, then Gazza is your man, as long as he doesn’t pump out a couple of 150s to stall his slide…

• Stock tip: Estimated to bottom out at $415k after R18.

Sam Fisher – $349,500 DOWN$15,000 (DOWN$4,300) BE146. The Fish has been super-consistent this year, but got shut down with a forward tag for 33 in his last game. Before that, he had 95, 120, 85, 105 and 88. Considering the pain that defenders have caused DT coaches this year, Fisher has been pretty reliable. He’s one name to stick on your shortlist of upgrade targets, or possibly even a swap for a Rawlings or Enright.

• Stock tip: Estimated to bottom out at $325k after R18.

Drew Petrie – $318,600 DOWN$34,600 (UP$108,900) BE175. His mid-season purple patch ended with a couple of below-average scores of 24 and 51, which is dragging his value down quickly. We know what he is capable of, with 106, 94 and 100 before that dismal pair. As long as the Roos don’t set him up as the lone ranger up forward and bomb it to him like they did last weekend, he should pick up and get back on the DT horse. His FWD/RUC DPP is a bonus, but his DT finals bye may put you off.

• Stock tip: Estimated to bottom out at $280k after R18.

Blue Chip Bargains

Heath Shaw – $325,500 DOWN$200 (DOWN$8,700) BE57. Heater’s value has bottomed out this week to a touch below his starting price, which makes him pretty good value as long as you are prepared to put up with the occasional 60. Yes, it’s a roller coaster, but when he’s good, he’s very, very good!

• Stock tip: Projected increase is $11,000, so buy this week.

Jimmy Bartel – $287,000 DOWN$17,700 (DOWN$150,800) BE35. Wow… Did we ever think Jimmy’s value would plummet to under $300k? He’s come back from concussion with a 108 and 82, which isn’t too shabby. For a player with a 91 average, he makes the ‘bargain’ list purely on value. His current price makes him almost a straight swap with a ripe rookie as an M6, or even as a super-sub to cover for your other midfield guns during their byes.

• Stock tip: Projected increase next week is $14,100… Get on now.

In Review

I think this will be a tough week with lots of thought around whether to trade or not. Conventional DT wisdom says we should hold our trades for finals, but this year’s byes are an anomaly that we have to bend some of the rules to cater for. Clem’s Trading for Finals article gives us even more to chew over – will an astute trade this week set us up for the run home? There are hard choices to be made, so get those thinking caps on! Again, make every trade count and good luck this weekend!

 On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT