Housn v The House: Round 4

Morning fellas. If you’re anything like me, last week was a complete disaster in the pursuit of a new Toyota. Having dropped about 30,000 places in the rankings in one foul weekend, it’s time to turn that luck around and use our DT knowledge for profit thanks to our good friends at Sportingbet. Might not win a car but a few dollars along the way will help reduce the amount of “FMDT” across the boards on Monday morning.

I’ve jumped onto Sportingbet to find the best bets available this week. Starting with a bank of $200, I’ll update the balance each week and see how much we can rack up by September. My first rule of gambling is to never risk all of your stash at once; worst-case scenario, we’ve still got something leftover to play with next week.

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So! Here’s what I’ll be looking at for round four:

Cox is paying $2.00 for the highest score in the best of the best rucks – It’s not much but it’s easy money. If you’re a little more adventurous,  look at Cox in the group of eight for the WCE v Hawks match – he’s paying $4.00 in that one and the man most likely to outscore him  (Mitchell) isn’t listed as an opponent. Embley ($7.00) is the wildcard there but I’ll take $20 on Cox to come out on top.

In the group of eight for what will likely be a night to forget for the Tigers (again, sigh), Pendles is paying $2.00. Much like Cox, this has to be easy money as I can’t see Thomas, Jackson, Beams, Deledio, Cloke, Cotchin or Grigg outscoring him. Richmond are quickly becoming a team of taggers (Jackson, Lids, King, White) but Pendles is pure class. Get on it, I’ve got another $40 there.

I can’t resist a good multi, either. Let’s put two of those together for $10 each:

• Goodes ($2.70) to beat Kelly and Enright
• Ablett ($2.50) to beat Sylvia and Moloney
• Fyfe ($2.50) to beat Wells and Adams
• Total odds of $16.87

Geelong is Goodes’ 4th favourite team to play, averaging 90 with a topscore of 121. Ablett is quickly playing himself into form and after 115 against the Dogs last week, can see him lifting another notch again against Melbourne. Fyfe played North twice last year, scoring 60 and 113 and should score well again on the back of 117 last week.

And for a little more risk:

• Deledio ($2.80) to beat Jackson and Beams
• Watson ($2.80) to beat Judd and Murphy
• Priddis ($2.65) to beat Hodge and Burgoyne
• Petrie ($2.75) to beat Mayne and Goldstein
• Total odds of $57.13

Jackson has never broken the hundred against Collingwood and the Tigers know that Lids will need midfield time (possibly running with Pendles) for them to have even half a chance. Watson has been in Brownlow form (and hey, get on that too!) and should have another good night against the Blues. Priddis averages 118 against the Hawks, and I’d be confident of loading him into the first multi as well. Word on the street has Sandi as a late withdrawal so there’s a good 25 hitouts up for grabs – looking at the big Dish to take advantage there.

Total outlay: $80

Total potential return: $900.

Even if only one of the Pendles or Cox bets gets up, we break even. Both of them and we double our money; while landing either multi would be pure cream.

One other thing to keep in mind. If any player in a set doesn’t play, your bet is cancelled and your money is refunded. This proved to be a godsend last week after Boyd smashed out 125 only for Bartel to put him to shame – Mitchell’s late withdrawal saved me from a completely unexpected loss there. This week, Sportingbet have taken that a step further and declared that all bets are off if one of the players starts as a sub. A player being subbed off won’t change anything, though.

And speaking of unexpected losses… there’s never a sure thing (unless it’s that Pendles bet, haha). Gamble responsibly and don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

Good luck!

Housn