The Friday Scramble: Round 23 GRAND FINALS!!!!!

Can you believe we are here already?  It seems like just yesterday that I was selecting my starting squad.  Well have you survived?  Hopefully you are like Roy and in your Grand Final instead of being like me, Calvin and Warnie and watching from the sidelines.  I don’t know about you but I think this has been one of the harder seasons we have had for a while with all of the injuries, suspensions and late outs.  And things don’t get any easier this week!!

If you weren’t sweating on selections last night then you must have either completely given up (clearly not as you are all in it for the long haul) or you have a very unique team that missed all the issues!!

Grand Final Strategies

For me the Grand Final round of Afl Fantasy, Dreamteam and Supercoach are not only about one team but they are about two.  Yours and your Opponents.  This week you are in a unique position for the season whereby you don’t have to worry about the long term actions of your trades.  You can trade this week knowing you only have to get one week out of these guys and just go for it!

I am sure that you know your own team inside out and upside down by now, so take some time out and spend it studying your opponents line up.  Pay particular note to the uniques that you both have.  This is where your game will be won and lost (nice work there captain obvious).  But this is also where you can have the greatest influence.

Now in AFL Fantasy we obviously have two trades to use this week and use them you will, very strategically.  In Real Dreamteam and Supercoach you may have run out of trades so you won’t be able to do too much.  But you can still manipulate things using your bench players.

What you need to do is assess the matchups and see if your opponent is more than likely going to beat you with the line ups that you have.  If you decide that you are going to come out on the losing side then you should start to look at who the uniques are that they have that are better than yours and decide whether or not you should be neutralising those matchups by trading in that player that you think will cause you to lose.  For example you may have say Travis Boak and your opponent has Rory Sloane.  Now there is the risk that Boak is tagged by Crowley whereas I expect Sloane to go big against St Kilda.  So you may look to trade Boak out for Sloane and thus neutralising that risk.

Obvioulsy there are a number of factors to consider here and they are…

• You have no donuts or major problems to deal with, and
• You have plenty of cash to trade to whoever you want.

The other thing that you can do is to try and pick a COD, Captain of Difference.  Clearly this is a risky strategy as most people will be going with Rocky (and why the hell wouldn’t you be), but if you are that far behind the 8 ball and you need all the luck in the world you can to get over the line you may consider it.  I can’t condone cheering against Rocky, but you may just have to do it.  In the Supercoach world you can do this of course by using the VC loophole with their rolling lockout.

Selection Issues

Stevie Bloody Johnson is what I have heard uttered this week.  When he was out the other week many people kept him thinking it was just the one week.  Now that he is out for the GF that means those coaches could still be holding him and it is a forced trade.  With Macaffer out this means that the Hawks mids will be breathing a bit easier.  This should see Sam Mitchell a bit happier as well as Luke Hodge… oh wait…Hodge is out with “Soreness”.  Levi Greenwood has been another popular pick this year and could have been a bit of a unique for you, but he is also out now.   No JPK this week, he is still out!  Todd Goldstein is out!  Didn’t see that one coming!  You guessed it… Soreness!  One we knew was coming was Swanny.  Sadly his hammy didn’t come up.

What a recovery by Michael Barlow! Just the one week with a broken thumb!  Dyson Heppell also returns after a break in his hand.  Zac O’Brien returns!  And what a week to do it.  Just when we need him.  Sad to see Dean Cox miss out this week, I am sure he is hoping to get a game next week, he has handed over to Nic Naitanui who returns this week.

 

#AskDunny

@pkd73 how important would you say bench cover is for the GF?

— Matt Scarfe (@MattyScarfe) August 26, 2014

In a couple of words mate… Bloody Important!  We all know the game that are played at this time of the year by coaches.  There is no doubt that there will be some late outs occurring this round.  I would be making sure that I have at least one cover on each row (maybe not in the rucks).  If you can have a good side and some bench cover you will go a long way towards winning your match up!

https://twitter.com/ThomasBennetts/statuses/503822936265203712

Wow this is an interesting one.  If they are your only issues then you must have avoided a fair bit of carnage.  I would expect that Kade Simpson should bounce back this week.  He scored 88 last time these teams played and has an average of 91 and a last 5 avg of 86.  Brodie Smith scored 122 against St Kilda earlier and has an average of 81 and a last 5 avg of 62.4.  This is what makes it a difficult decision, it is purely that 122 that keeps Brodie in the conversation.  To be honest I think I keep Brodie only because of the opposition.

@pkd73 @DTTALK thinking about Adelaide's Scotty Thompson as a POD. Thoughts?

— Evan White (@BOABuildC) August 27, 2014

On the face of it I say no.  However, but when I looked at the numbers it isn’t as silly as it sounds.  He has only played two games in the last 5 weeks for scores of 95 and 111.  His average of 96 though worries me.  He has had 7 scores over 110 including a 149 and 141 but he has also had 5 scores under 85 (not counting his red vested 33 and 57).  When they played the Saints in round 4 he had 128.  As a point of difference I reckon he is certainly not a bad choice.  He is also fairly cheap at $478k in RDT.

@pkd73 what is the number one unique you could bring in this week if you are genuinely behind in your match up… Any position?

— Grant Fenn (@11fenn) August 27, 2014

Wow, put me on the spot there Fenn.  Perhaps I need to return the favour next year for you on the Footy Rhino podcast!  I have a few thoughts and I am very positive that I will miss a few people here as there are so many options.

• Toby Greene – He is only in 1.29% of RDT sides!  The guy has been massive in the last few weeks.  Jump on!
• Taylor Walker – Well he is owned by 12% in RDT, but I think he could go massive against the Saints, particularly since the Crows may be chasing percentage if the Eagles get up and they are still alive.
• Rohan Bewick – A forward at $395k and averaging 93.5 over the last 4 weeks.  He is playing at the Cattery this week, but they have been losing over the last few weeks and he is still scoring ok.  He would be a super unique as he is in only 0.2% of RDT sides.
• Richard Douglas – Only owned in 0.4% of RDT sides and is averaging 89, but has scored 104 and 105 in the last two weeks.  Scored 89 against the Saints in round 4.

I don’t know if they are the best uniques, but they are all uniques that should score well.  If you call 1.2% unique then I would say Toby would be a must… isn’t that right Crutton Hutton?

@pkd73 bring in gray who is prone to crowly's tag or go safe option with duncan vs lions

— Nico Leopardi (@Nico_Leo642) August 27, 2014

This is an interesting one and one that has been debated in the Adelaide Media this week.  Crowley hasn’t gone to Grey in his last 3 games against us, he has always gone to Boak.  Many think he MUST go to Grey this time.  But let’s look back as far as last week when we have Rocky who is carving things up, yet Crowley went to Hanley.  So I don’t think it is a certainty to be honest.  One discussion I have had with a mate at work and also a bit with Freako on twitter is that if Crowley goes to him, Port may send him to the goalsquare to shake it and take Crowley out of the middle of the packs.  After all of that there is Duncan v the Lions.  He only scored 55 in that round 2 game against the two sides.  I think if it were me I would probably take the risk on Gray, he scored 99 on Freo last time.  However, if you are conservative take Duncan I think as Brisbane don’t tend to tag and Geelong should win comfortably.

 

Things To Remember!

• Take a chance! – Make sure you leave it all on the park!  If you are not a certain winner then lay it on the line!
• Prepare for late outs. – We know it is going to happen, don’t cry when it happens when you aren’t prepared.
• Update that Never Again List Now! – If you do it now you won’t forget when you get to the start of next season and may accidentally select Colin Sylvia!

Don’t forget to come to the DTTALK CATCH UP tomorrow at the Richmond Club Hotel in Swan St.  Should be a ripper afternoon.  Come along and buy Warnie, Roy, Calvin and Jeppa a beer.  Oh, and say gday to me too!  Last year was sensational, the sing a long with Hairy Beard towards the end of the night was sensational with the whole bar getting involved, hopefully we can get Calvin up to take the mic this year!

Best of luck in your Grand Finals this weekend.  Thanks so much for your readership this year, it has been a pleasure putting this together for you each week.  I look forward to seeing you all back again next season.  Also a massive shout out to the awesome coaches in the Friday Scrambler Leagues on AFL Fantasy.  We currently hold the 3rd and 4th best AFL Fantasy leagues in the country!

Catch you all in the off season on twitter @pkd73